[SemiAccurate] Nvidia's Fermi GTX480 is broken and unfixable

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heyheybooboo

Diamond Member
Jun 29, 2007
6,278
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What I never really understood is why AMD/ATI didn't use global foundry more than TSMC considering it owned it and I think still owns a large chunk of it(I also think it's losing money).

You don't quickly pivot on a dime with your process.

It looks like TSMC has improved 40nm to a viable, mature process. What I think has been lost in this discussion are the legal requirements shouldered by TSMC in 'fire-walling' AMD / nVidia.

AMD/ATI 40nm process at TSMC is most likely proprietary in several significant areas. Same with nVidia. TSMC is legally bound not to 'share' between the two.

Anand brought this into sharper focus with his article. With their focus on the TSMC 40nm 'process', AMD has successfully 'engineered' greater yields for 'higher-binned' chips over the last 6-8 months with TSMC (in reality it's been over a year since the HD 4770 was released at 40nm in the Spring of 2009). And what is lost in all this ---- the 40nm silicon from TSMC was originally scheduled to 'market' with an ATI chip in December of 2008 but was delayed.

I understand the design differences between Evergreen and Fermi but some of the AMD 'improvements' could conceivably assist nVidia in expanding their yields at the high-end (but TSMC can't go there).

As several have noted, how much effort will nVidia put into improving their designs at 40nm with the die-shrink to 28/32nm quickly approaching?






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scooterlibby

Senior member
Feb 28, 2009
752
0
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Some more interesting rumor mongering:

1. Fud saying TDP to be slightly higher than GTX285.
- http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/17723/1/

2. Trillian - AMD's response to Fermi. Fud taking a swipe at Charlie's article maybe? ("The smart part of AMD knows that but they still have to play the game that Geforce GTX 480 is bad, evil and broken") http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/17720/1/

3. Dual Fermi still on track? http://vr-zone.com/forums/561078/fermi-x2-on-track-possible-launch-date-is-may.html

At least here's some noise, ffs, it was way too quiet.
 

JAG87

Diamond Member
Jan 3, 2006
3,921
3
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Why if Fermi is so kick ass and releasing so soon have Nvidia not given performance figures yet. They are losing a high volume of potential sales to ATI and performance figures even without pricing would persuade a significant percentage of prospective buyers to hold and wait for Fermi (if it really can compete).
Charlie may not be much liked by the Nvidia fanboy community but he seems to be getting pretty close to the truth withnhis Fermi reporting. If he's right I doubt anyone here will give him the credit he will deserve. If he's wrong and Fermi really smokes the opposition I will be please but only to get lower prices-personally my money is on him being right.


Because what this forum and most other communities on the internet doesn't understand is that the end-user gaming market is less than 10% of nvidia's profits, and they don't give a shit to persuade people like you or me into waiting.

The real profit margins comes from the workstation market with Quadro and the server market with Tesla. Even their fucking chipset market with Apple and ION is bigger than the GeForce market.

The thing above generate millions from OEMs and large companies. The GeForce market moves pennies compared to that. Yet the only people that are interested in performance numbers are the GeForce users that are impatient nerds or fanboys.

Why would nvidia jeopardize millions of dollars with an early architecture launch to satisfy you? Why would they care about releasing early benchmarks to satisfy you?

There are gigantic companies waiting to purchase the new Quadro and Tesla cards regardless of when they come out simply because they will perform better than the old architecture, they will save time, and time = money. Nvidia has no other competitor anyways, ATI does not exist in that market.

So just wait, be patient and hope that their GPGPU and CUDA engineered moster can handle graphics just as well as crunches numbers. And remember that personal computers are nothing but a small fraction of their business.

If you need a card now, buy ATI. It's simple. You don't play the waiting game if you NEED something. I don't think this is can be classified as a daily indispensable item like food or shelter, so you should be able to wait FFS.

/end rant, dont take it personal
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
2
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Bollocks.

I can only repeat what i have said before:
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=29122105&postcount=11

"Even a blind hen can find corn in time.

Neither of Char-lie's (or your guesswork) was based on fact(s)?
Why can I say this?
Because no one knew how A2 or A3 (or even if there where to be an A3 version) silicon would behave before they where out."


I find it pretty saying that LIE is part of his name...

Hay I am just reading this topic . Haven't said a word . So leave me out of this. It matters not to me about what was said who was most accurate about guess work . If you believe Charlie didn't have a basic concept as to the restrictions Imposed on fabbing processor and its design perimaters I would say your full of yourself /. As for me leave me out this . I already bitched slapped ya once . Stay on topic . I will just read . Thank you very much
 

Dribble

Platinum Member
Aug 9, 2005
2,076
611
136
Some people seem to have a very selective memory for Charlie articles. It was just a few months ago he decreed nvidia was abandoning the high end gpu market. If he's so accurate then why is nvidia still here? I would go onto his site and find the link but I don't want to give it page hits on principle.

I think Charlie has some reasonable sources but it's how he spins the information that makes it so wrong. e.g. he found out there would be shortages of nvidia 2xx cards before the rest of us. He must have known there would be a shortage of ati 4xxx cards too. To us that would have meant that nvidia and ati hadn't manufactured enough probably because they expected the new 40nm cards to take over sooner. To Charlie, after conveniently forgetting ati were in the same position, he decided that meant nvidia were exiting the high end market - NO MORE HIGH END NVIDIA CARDS, DOOM, DOOM, THE END ... lol
 

Lonyo

Lifer
Aug 10, 2002
21,938
6
81
Because what this forum and most other communities on the internet doesn't understand is that the end-user gaming market is less than 10% of nvidia's profits, and they don't give a shit to persuade people like you or me into waiting.

The real profit margins comes from the workstation market with Quadro and the server market with Tesla. Even their fucking chipset market with Apple and ION is bigger than the GeForce market.

The thing above generate millions from OEMs and large companies. The GeForce market moves pennies compared to that. Yet the only people that are interested in performance numbers are the GeForce users that are impatient nerds or fanboys.

Why would nvidia jeopardize millions of dollars with an early architecture launch to satisfy you? Why would they care about releasing early benchmarks to satisfy you?

There are gigantic companies waiting to purchase the new Quadro and Tesla cards regardless of when they come out simply because they will perform better than the old architecture, they will save time, and time = money. Nvidia has no other competitor anyways, ATI does not exist in that market.

So just wait, be patient and hope that their GPGPU and CUDA engineered moster can handle graphics just as well as crunches numbers. And remember that personal computers are nothing but a small fraction of their business.

If you need a card now, buy ATI. It's simple. You don't play the waiting game if you NEED something. I don't think this is can be classified as a daily indispensable item like food or shelter, so you should be able to wait FFS.

/end rant, dont take it personal

Well, it's not quite like that, but pretty close.
The revenue figures from GPUs are a significant proportion of the overall NV business, while the GPGPU revenue is tiny, but the discrete chip margin is much much lower than that of GPGPU and its ilk.
Discrete is very important still to NV, but in terms of margins it's not as good as other areas.
Bear in mind that NV is going to basically lose all of its chipset business in the not too distant future and they are let with 2 sources of profit: GPGPU and discrete cards.
Now if you consider the discrete market, the very high end isn't a huge proportion of it, but revenues are still high, maybe 25% of total is somewhere above >$300 cards, by revenue, not volume, which means it's still a useful market segment, but it's by no means the be all and end all for NV, like you say, and their bread and butter is still going to be the more mainstream segments and (they hope) the GPGPU area in the future.

For NV this card doesn't even really matter as a totally functional product.
It will do two things: Give them bragging rights in discrete GPUs and allow them to show what they can do in the GPGPU arena going forward.
Fermi isn't going to be (IMO) the massive seller in the GPGPU market, but it is positioned as a breathrough product to say "hey, this is what we can do, you should start considering this route", and then future designs can be positioned to really win big business and replace the chipset losses.
Anyone who is looking at Fermi for GPGPU solutions and doesn't already use them will likely wait for a Rev2 product anyway, and the fact that Fermi is broken might not make a huge difference (you have to plan and budget these things).
 

waffleironhead

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2005
7,124
623
136
Some people seem to have a very selective memory for Charlie articles. It was just a few months ago he decreed nvidia was abandoning the high end gpu market. If he's so accurate then why is nvidia still here? I would go onto his site and find the link but I don't want to give it page hits on principle.

I think Charlie has some reasonable sources but it's how he spins the information that makes it so wrong. e.g. he found out there would be shortages of nvidia 2xx cards before the rest of us. He must have known there would be a shortage of ati 4xxx cards too. To us that would have meant that nvidia and ati hadn't manufactured enough probably because they expected the new 40nm cards to take over sooner. To Charlie, after conveniently forgetting ati were in the same position, he decided that meant nvidia were exiting the high end market - NO MORE HIGH END NVIDIA CARDS, DOOM, DOOM, THE END ... lol

Didnt they EOL most or all of the high end chips from the 2xx series?
 

yh125d

Diamond Member
Dec 23, 2006
6,886
0
76
Some people seem to have a very selective memory for Charlie articles. It was just a few months ago he decreed nvidia was abandoning the high end gpu market. If he's so accurate then why is nvidia still here?

Have you not noticed GTX260s costing $40 more than 6 months ago? Or the two models of GTX275 on newegg which are pretty much always sold out? Or the two models of GTX295 which are also always sold out? Or that GTX285 prices are up $60?
 

heyheybooboo

Diamond Member
Jun 29, 2007
6,278
0
0
Have you not noticed GTX260s costing $40 more than 6 months ago? Or the two models of GTX275 on newegg which are pretty much always sold out? Or the two models of GTX295 which are also always sold out? Or that GTX285 prices are up $60?

My recollection is they squeezed supply to drive the price up ....




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Lonbjerg

Diamond Member
Dec 6, 2009
4,419
0
0
Why if Fermi is so kick ass and releasing so soon have Nvidia not given performance figures yet. They are losing a high volume of potential sales to ATI and performance figures even without pricing would persuade a significant percentage of prospective buyers to hold and wait for Fermi (if it really can compete).
Charlie may not be much liked by the Nvidia fanboy community but he seems to be getting pretty close to the truth withnhis Fermi reporting. If he's right I doubt anyone here will give him the credit he will deserve. If he's wrong and Fermi really smokes the opposition I will be please but only to get lower prices-personally my money is on him being right.

You mean like they released G80 performance figures before it launched...oh wait...
 

Lonbjerg

Diamond Member
Dec 6, 2009
4,419
0
0
Some people seem to have a very selective memory for Charlie articles. It was just a few months ago he decreed nvidia was abandoning the high end gpu market. If he's so accurate then why is nvidia still here? I would go onto his site and find the link but I don't want to give it page hits on principle.

I think Charlie has some reasonable sources but it's how he spins the information that makes it so wrong. e.g. he found out there would be shortages of nvidia 2xx cards before the rest of us. He must have known there would be a shortage of ati 4xxx cards too. To us that would have meant that nvidia and ati hadn't manufactured enough probably because they expected the new 40nm cards to take over sooner. To Charlie, after conveniently forgetting ati were in the same position, he decided that meant nvidia were exiting the high end market - NO MORE HIGH END NVIDIA CARDS, DOOM, DOOM, THE END ... lol

Or they "forgot" his ramblings about GT200...same tune, same result...he was wrong.
 

Dribble

Platinum Member
Aug 9, 2005
2,076
611
136
Didnt they EOL most or all of the high end chips from the 2xx series?

Proof? Even if they did why does that mean they are exiting the high end market never to produce another high end gpu again?

Have you not noticed GTX260s costing $40 more than 6 months ago? Or the two models of GTX275 on newegg which are pretty much always sold out? Or the two models of GTX295 which are also always sold out? Or that GTX285 prices are up $60?

What's that got to do with nvidia exiting the market?

Do you think because there are supply shortages that means that nvidia will now stop producing high end gpu's and never produce any more, becoming like intel and catering for the low end only?
 

Soleron

Senior member
May 10, 2009
337
0
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Do you think because there are supply shortages that means that nvidia will now stop producing high end gpu's and never produce any more, becoming like intel and catering for the low end only?

There are no supply shortages, because TSMC would have announced them for 55nm like they did for 40nm. Instead it's because Nvidia hasn't ordered any GT200b wafers, which is because they can't sell them profitably against 5xxx.

So they are currently not in the high-end GPU market by choice. And, if Fermi has even half of the problems Charlie claims they will continue to not be in it for most of this year. And finally, since Charlie says any Fermi II in late 2010 is a fixed Fermi still on 40nm rather than a new thing, AMD will certainly have more than 5xxx to meet them and they will still be very behind.

That looks a lot like an 'exit'.
 

yh125d

Diamond Member
Dec 23, 2006
6,886
0
76
What's that got to do with nvidia exiting the market?

Do you think because there are supply shortages that means that nvidia will now stop producing high end gpu's and never produce any more, becoming like intel and catering for the low end only?

They are, in a sense, non-existant above $150. They've strangulated GTX275/295 supplies considerably, and GTX260/285 are priced so high you'd be a damn fool to buy either. They are as close to withdrawn from the market as they can be without the huge PR hit of officially abandoning it. I never said they won't come back into said market, so don't imply that I did
 

waffleironhead

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2005
7,124
623
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Proof? Even if they did why does that mean they are exiting the high end market never to produce another high end gpu again?

First off, thats not how things works, which article are you referring to?. When he claimed they were abandoning the high end market( I read it as for that generation...not forever). It did happan as was later reported by vendor that they were no longer getting shipments of 285's

"NVIDIA told me two things. One, that they have shared with some OEMs that they will no longer be making GT200b based products. That’s the GTX 260 all the way up to the GTX 285. The EOL (end of life) notices went out recently and they request that the OEMs submit their allocation requests asap otherwise they risk not getting any cards"

http://www.anandtech.com/video/showdoc.aspx?i=3659
 

Zap

Elite Member
Oct 13, 1999
22,377
7
81
1. Fud saying TDP to be slightly higher than GTX285.
- http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/17723/1/

That's fine. GTX 280 also used more power than GTX 285.

Have you not noticed GTX260s costing $40 more than 6 months ago? Or the two models of GTX275 on newegg which are pretty much always sold out?

Kind of like Intel SSD pricing/availability for a few months (until this week?)? Or how about DDR2 RAM costing more than 2x what it cost a year ago? :hmm:

Can someone tell me why Nvidia likes huge 500+ mm2 dies?

It's like car engines. "There's no replacement for displacement." :awe:

Anyways, just a design philosophy.
 

yh125d

Diamond Member
Dec 23, 2006
6,886
0
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Kind of like Intel SSD pricing/availability for a few months (until this week?)? Or how about DDR2 RAM costing more than 2x what it cost a year ago? :hmm:

I know you know that this type of pricing/stock activity is not typical of GPU markets when there is no replacement, whereas the DDR2 price rise could be predicted as it IS typical of the DRAM market
 

ZimZum

Golden Member
Aug 2, 2001
1,281
0
76

This is old news.

http://www.anandtech.com/video/showdoc.aspx?i=3659

NVIDIA told me two things. One, that they have shared with some OEMs that they will no longer be making GT200b based products. That’s the GTX 260 all the way up to the GTX 285. The EOL (end of life) notices went out recently and they request that the OEMs submit their allocation requests asap otherwise they risk not getting any cards.

The second was that despite the EOL notices, end users should be able to purchase GeForce GTX 260, 275 and 285 cards all the way up through February of next year.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,091
513
126
Nvidia is really going to make sure they dont introduce new archs on an immature process again. They learned a lot from the 5800 fiasco and this is the first chip since they tried this again and it blew up in their face.
 

Martimus

Diamond Member
Apr 24, 2007
4,490
157
106
Wow.

I never bothered reading TheInq or SemiAccurate before, because I knew that Fuad came from the Inq and reading his short gypsy-like statements was just a waste of time. Now that I have read this article, I can say that I may start to read SemiAccurate on occasion.

Charlie actually went into detail and gave me a lot of interesting information. His broad closing statements and conclusions have little to do with the actual information he portrays, but I don't mind as I always form my own conclusions and don't rely on article writers to do that for me. It does appear that he has a rough understanding of how the design and manufacturing process work, but his conclusions lead me to believe he has never actually worked a design into manufacturing, as he paints broad blame statements that are obviously misplaced.
 

SolMiester

Diamond Member
Dec 19, 2004
5,330
17
76
So NVidia won't answer them just because Charlie asked them? What about if Anand asked them? Editors from Tom's Hardware, Bit-tech, [H]ard|OCP, B3D, etc? What about if I asked them? Just because Charlie asked them does not mean they are any less worthy questions, nor does it mean that the public don't need to know the answers.

I dont think you got my jest there mate.....nV hates Charlie and wont talk to him period, therefore someone esle will have to ask the questions..
Charlie can whistle dicksy ! So the whole article about asking questions as far as Charlie goes is a moot point.....got it?
 

NoQuarter

Golden Member
Jan 1, 2001
1,006
0
76
Wow.

I never bothered reading TheInq or SemiAccurate before, because I knew that Fuad came from the Inq and reading his short gypsy-like statements was just a waste of time. Now that I have read this article, I can say that I may start to read SemiAccurate on occasion.

Charlie actually went into detail and gave me a lot of interesting information. His broad closing statements and conclusions have little to do with the actual information he portrays, but I don't mind as I always form my own conclusions and don't rely on article writers to do that for me. It does appear that he has a rough understanding of how the design and manufacturing process work, but his conclusions lead me to believe he has never actually worked a design into manufacturing, as he paints broad blame statements that are obviously misplaced.


Exactly.. his suppositions are often more doom and gloom than can be supported but his articles are very well informed. Take what you can get out of them and toss the overzealous stuff and you'll get some good info. Charlie's bumpgate article was a really in depth and interesting read, he does know the manufacturing side of things.

His predictions of a March release were very well backed and caveated too, since back in Aug/Sept he was basically saying 'if things go like this, and they probably are, expect March. Feb if things go right, Jan if things go perfectly - if utter disaster, April, but unlikely.' That seems like a much better position than 'it's coming November! NV said so!' then 'it's coming December! NV said so!', etc.. and as the pieces fell in to place it got narrower and narrower.