Scientists Fear Bird Flu Virus May Have Mutated {Update 7/18}

[Meuge]

Originally posted by: Buck_Naked
http://www.osha.gov/dsg/guidance/avian-flu.html

GUIDANCE FOR MEDICAL WORKERS THAT TRANSPORT/TREAT AVIAN FLU PATIENTS
All patients who present to a health-care setting with fever and respiratory symptoms should be managed according to the CDC's recommendations for respiratory hygiene and cough etiquette and questioned regarding their recent travel history (see http://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/infectioncontrol/resphygiene.htm). It has not yet been determined that avian flu can be spread from person to person. However, due to the potential risks of human to human infection, isolation precautions identical to those recommended for SARS should be implemented for all hospitalized patients diagnosed with or under evaluation for influenza A (H5N1) as follows:

1. Standard Precautions
* Pay careful attention to hand hygiene before and after all patient contact.

2. Contact Precautions
* Use gloves and gown for all patient contact.

3. Eye protection
* Wear when within 3 feet of the patient.

4. Airborne Precautions
* Place the patient in an airborne isolation room (i.e., monitored negative air pressure in relation to the surrounding areas with 6 to 12 air changes per hour).


* The CDC has recommended that, the minimum requirement is a disposable particulate respirator (e.g. N95, N99 or N100) used in accordance with 29 CFR 1910.134 for respiratory protection programs. Workers must be fit tested for -the model and size respirator they wear and must be trained to fit-check for facepiece to face seal, when entering the room.


* If transport or movement is necessary, ensure that the patient wears a surgical mask. If a mask cannot be tolerated, apply the most practical measures to contain respiratory secretions.

One also has to realize that the mask is potentially contaminated and take precautions when removing it... nor are they reusable...

And they are very uncomfortable to wear for extended times...

I was just saying it as a matter of fact. Wearing N95 masks is not a solution across the entire general population.

 

[Meuge]

Originally posted by: eilute

Originally posted by: Meuge
Oh noes, the sky is falling.

Can you please elaborate on this?

Sure, I believe the fears of the bird flu are greatly exaggerated. For more information, please refer to the last page of this thread:

Link

 

[smack Down]

Originally posted by: Buck_Naked

Originally posted by: eilute

Originally posted by: Meuge
You can get .2 micron aerosol-protective masks from many websites (I'd stick to the 3M brand). They'll run you about $1 apiece, or less if you buy a lot of them.

Hmm..if I'm doing my math right that's roughly 3,800 times larger than a Hydrogen atom. The might just be good enough. I'm not real sure how large virures themselves are.

N95 or higher is the rating you should look at. And you aren't really trying to filter the virus itself, but the droplets that are ejected when someone sneezes or coughs... Eye protection is as important as the mask, but the greatest way to reduce risk is hygiene. Washing your hands frequently with anti-bacterial soap, not touching eyes, nose or mouth, etc... will go along ways in protecting yourself from catching a cold or flu...

Nothing like taking medical advice from some guy on the internet that doesn't know the differance between virus and bacteria.

 

[Gibsons]

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: Buck_Naked

Originally posted by: eilute

Originally posted by: Meuge
You can get .2 micron aerosol-protective masks from many websites (I'd stick to the 3M brand). They'll run you about $1 apiece, or less if you buy a lot of them.

Hmm..if I'm doing my math right that's roughly 3,800 times larger than a Hydrogen atom. The might just be good enough. I'm not real sure how large virures themselves are.

N95 or higher is the rating you should look at. And you aren't really trying to filter the virus itself, but the droplets that are ejected when someone sneezes or coughs... Eye protection is as important as the mask, but the greatest way to reduce risk is hygiene. Washing your hands frequently with anti-bacterial soap, not touching eyes, nose or mouth, etc... will go along ways in protecting yourself from catching a cold or flu...

Nothing like taking medical advice from some guy on the internet that doesn't know the differance between virus and bacteria.

Anti-bacterial soaps will usually contain triclosan or benzalkonium chloride or something else as the anti-bacterial. Aside from triclosan, most of the anti-bacterials found in soaps/detergents should be very effective against the flu virus. Soap in general should work pretty well on it for that matter, not that I've seen any data.

 

[Meuge]

Originally posted by: Buck_Naked

Originally posted by: eilute

Originally posted by: Meuge
You can get .2 micron aerosol-protective masks from many websites (I'd stick to the 3M brand). They'll run you about $1 apiece, or less if you buy a lot of them.

Hmm..if I'm doing my math right that's roughly 3,800 times larger than a Hydrogen atom. The might just be good enough. I'm not real sure how large virures themselves are.

N95 or higher is the rating you should look at. And you aren't really trying to filter the virus itself, but the droplets that are ejected when someone sneezes or coughs... Eye protection is as important as the mask, but the greatest way to reduce risk is hygiene. Washing your hands frequently with anti-bacterial soap, not touching eyes, nose or mouth, etc... will go along ways in protecting yourself from catching a cold or flu...

I am totally opposed to the use of antibacterial soaps, washes, etc... We're already having trouble coping with multidrug-resistant bacteria. Let's not make it worse.

 

[BuckNaked]

Originally posted by: smack Down

Originally posted by: Buck_Naked

Originally posted by: eilute

Originally posted by: Meuge
You can get .2 micron aerosol-protective masks from many websites (I'd stick to the 3M brand). They'll run you about $1 apiece, or less if you buy a lot of them.

Hmm..if I'm doing my math right that's roughly 3,800 times larger than a Hydrogen atom. The might just be good enough. I'm not real sure how large virures themselves are.

N95 or higher is the rating you should look at. And you aren't really trying to filter the virus itself, but the droplets that are ejected when someone sneezes or coughs... Eye protection is as important as the mask, but the greatest way to reduce risk is hygiene. Washing your hands frequently with anti-bacterial soap, not touching eyes, nose or mouth, etc... will go along ways in protecting yourself from catching a cold or flu...

Nothing like taking medical advice from some guy on the internet that doesn't know the differance between virus and bacteria.

I guess I should be more worried about our public education system, and less about the bird flu...

Let me refer you to a specialist on how to wash your hands...

By the way, its difference, not differance...

 

[BuckNaked]

Originally posted by: Meuge

Originally posted by: Buck_Naked

Originally posted by: eilute

Originally posted by: Meuge
You can get .2 micron aerosol-protective masks from many websites (I'd stick to the 3M brand). They'll run you about $1 apiece, or less if you buy a lot of them.

Hmm..if I'm doing my math right that's roughly 3,800 times larger than a Hydrogen atom. The might just be good enough. I'm not real sure how large virures themselves are.

N95 or higher is the rating you should look at. And you aren't really trying to filter the virus itself, but the droplets that are ejected when someone sneezes or coughs... Eye protection is as important as the mask, but the greatest way to reduce risk is hygiene. Washing your hands frequently with anti-bacterial soap, not touching eyes, nose or mouth, etc... will go along ways in protecting yourself from catching a cold or flu...

I am totally opposed to the use of antibacterial soaps, washes, etc... We're already having trouble coping with multidrug-resistant bacteria. Let's not make it worse.

If you could fill out a TPS report and send it over to me, I will get to work on getting Dial Soap pulled off the market...

 

[BuckNaked]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2006-05-22-tamiflu-shipment_x.htm

U.S. shipping Tamiflu stockpile to Asia
Posted 5/22/2006 11:32 AM ET E-mail | Save | Print |
GENEVA (AP) ? The United States is sending a stockpile of the antiviral drug Tamiflu to Asia as a first defense against a possible flu pandemic, Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt said Monday.

Leavitt said Washington has shipped treatment courses of Tamiflu to a secure location in an unidentified Asian country.

The drug, produced by the Swiss-based Roche Holding AG, is regarded as the best initial defense against a pandemic resulting from a possible mutation of the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus into a strain easily passed between people.

"It is a stockpile that would belong to the United States and we would control its deployment," Leavitt said in Geneva, where he was attending the World Health Assembly, the annual meeting of the U.N. health agency's 192 members.

He declined to say how much of the drug had been sent but said the shipment would arrive later this week.

The medicine will be used to support international containment efforts in the event of a human pandemic, but the United States could redirect the stocks for domestic use should it become clear that containment overseas was not feasible.

Leavitt said the U.S. maintained its long-term goal of stockpiling enough Tamiflu to treat 25% of the U.S. population as part of its pandemic preparedness plan. He said the U.S. would have 26 million treatment courses by December, and the necessary 75 million by the end of 2007.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews...5651305&subject=general&action=article

Thousands of people quarantined as Romania battles bird flu

BUCHAREST (AFX) - Some 13,000 people were quarantined in a quarter of the Romanian capital Bucharest as troops and police sealed off streets in response to the city's second bird flu outbreak, officials said.

The mayor of the southern fourth district, Adrian Inimaroiu, said residents would be cut off and all businesses in the area would be closed during the quarantine period of up to three weeks.

The move came after the agriculture ministry earlier today confirmed the presence of the H5 bird flu virus in dead chickens found in the neighbourhood, the latest of dozens of outbreaks of avian flu in Romania this spring.

"About 40 streets have been blocked" in the Luica quarter, Inimaroiu said, urging residents to stay calm.

He said the quarantine would last for a "period of a week to 21 days and all the institutions in this quarter will be closed".

"About 2,500 birds from this area will be slaughtered as rapidly as possible," the mayor said.

Police and troops were seen on the streets of the district this afternoon.

Tests conducted at the European reference laboratory in Weybridge, England, have confirmed the presence of the potentially deadly H5N1 strain of the virus in seven samples taken from central Brasov county, including one from an industrial farm that was the source of the latest spread of the disease.

Authorities say it is still unclear whether the virus found in Bucharest originated from this location.

ETA:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/conten...luenza/avianflu/news/may2206avian.html

Three new avian flu cases reported in Indonesia, 2 in Iran

May 22, 2006 (CIDRAP news) ? Local tests indicate that two more Indonesians have died of H5N1 avian influenza?one of them from the extended family case cluster still being investigated in northern Sumatra, according to news reports.

In addition, according to an Associated Press (AP) story today, a third Indonesian, in East Java, has tested positive but remains alive. And Reuters reported today that two Iranians have died of H5N1 infection, which, if confirmed, would be Iran's first human cases.

The victim in Sumatra, a 32-year-old, is the father of one of the earlier victims, a 10-year-old boy. "He is the father of the child who died on May 13," said Nyoman Kandun in an Associated Press AP story today. Kandun is the director-general of disease control for Indonesia's Ministry of Health.

Last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that six people in the man's extended family had been infected with H5N1 and that five of them had died. Another person, a 37-year-old woman who was the first in the family to die, was not tested but had symptoms of avian flu and is considered the index case, according to the WHO.

Kandun, according to the AP, said the 32-year-old who died had received oseltamivir in the hospital, but then ran away. He was later found in his village but refused antiviral treatment.

News agencies report that the other confirmed case of avian-flu-related death occurred May 19 in the capital city of Jakarta. No further information on this fatality was available as of this writing.

The third case involved an 18-year-old shuttlecock maker in East Java, according to a May 21 Reuters story. He is currently hospitalized and undergoing treatment for avian flu, according to Reuters. Investigators are tracing the source of the feathers he used for making shuttlecocks, Kandun told Reuters.

If all these cases are confirmed by the WHO, Indonesia's avian flu case total would rise to 44, and its death toll would reach 34. Indonesia has reported by far the most H5N1 human cases and deaths in 2006.

Investigation of the Sumatra cluster by scientists from the WHO and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention continues. A source of this outbreak has not been found; local chickens, ducks, and pigs have all tested negative for H5N1.

Human-to-human transmission is a concern in any cluster, but especially one this size. "We cannot confirm that [human-to-human transmission] has occurred," the AP quoted Kandun as saying in today's story, "but we cannot rule it out."

Reported cases in Iran
In Iran, tests on the bodies of a 26-year-old woman and a 41-year-old man confirmed H5N1 infection, according to a hospital official in the northwestern province of Kermanshah, as reported today by Agence France-Presse (AFP).

"Four people have been hospitalized, among them a woman and her husband who have died," the head of the university hospital in Kermanshah told Iranian Students News Agency, according to the AFP story. "Another one of those hospitalized is in critical condition," he added. "There are suspicions of bird flu symptoms."

"Their tests have been sent to medical centers inside the country and abroad to clarify the issue," said the official, identified only as Dr Izadi, according to AFP.

Though the patients are identified as husband and wife in the AFP story, a Reuters report published today lists them as brother and sister.

If the tests are confirmed, these would constitute the first human cases of avian flu in Iran. The first report of H5N1 avian flu in Iran came in February, when officials said 153 wild swans had died of the disease.

 

[Meuge]

Oh no, there is an outbreak?! We must quarantine everyone right now!

Oh wait, it's among chickens... oh well - let's lock'em up anyway - they should be getting used to it anyway.

 

[fitzov]

Leavitt said the U.S. maintained its long-term goal of stockpiling enough Tamiflu to treat 25% of the U.S. population as part of its pandemic preparedness plan.

hmmm...who will be able to get the shot? older people and children, since they are the most at risk? curious

 

[Meuge]

Originally posted by: fitzov

Leavitt said the U.S. maintained its long-term goal of stockpiling enough Tamiflu to treat 25% of the U.S. population as part of its pandemic preparedness plan.

hmmm...who will be able to get the shot? older people and children, since they are the most at risk? curious

Actually that would be true if:
1. potential epidemic was limited in scale
2. there was infrastructure to deploy the drugs rapidly
3. the virus behaved like a typical flu virus in terms of its pathogenesis

None of the above are true. The 1918 H1N1 flu killed the young, the old, but also a huge number of people ages 25-35... the exact reason why is unknown, but there are hypotheses.

H5N1 kills pretty much anyone. The virus replicates so quickly, that it causes an inflammatory shock, which is what kills the patients.

Also, there is no infrastructure for deploying the drug quickly... even in such an urban, well-financed, and well-organized city as New York.

While I don't think it'll be transmitted among humans, as I've said before, if the worst case scenario occurred, the people who would first receive the drugs would likely be the police and healthcare workers, who'd be exposed to large amounts of virus on the job. Delivering the drug to others would be a project of monumental undertaking.

And btw - the current vaccine against H5N1 sucks monkey-balls... and tamiflu + rimantidine is a good cocktail, but if H5N1 turned pandemic I'd expect resistant strains would emerge almost immediately.

 

[Gibsons]

Originally posted by: fitzov

Leavitt said the U.S. maintained its long-term goal of stockpiling enough Tamiflu to treat 25% of the U.S. population as part of its pandemic preparedness plan.

hmmm...who will be able to get the shot? older people and children, since they are the most at risk? curious

That's what's been done (sort of) in the past, but there's discussion that it might be better to shift the emphasis towards the younger adult population (away from the elderly) as the younger are more likely to be mobile (ie more likely to spread it), are a little easier to distribute to and also respond better to the vaccine. There isn't an effective vaccine for H5N1 yet, though.

 

[BuckNaked]

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/23052006/2/x...-cluster-human-human-human-spread.html

Indonesian bird flu cluster may be human-to-human-to-human spread: WHO

By Helen Branswell

(CP) - The large cluster of human cases of H5N1 avian flu being investigated in Indonesia may represent the first time the virus has been seen to ignite two successive waves of human-to-human spread, the World Health Organization said Tuesday.

A spokesperson said the agency has not yet started the process of reviewing whether the global pandemic alert level should be raised to Phase 4 from the current Phase 3.

But Maria Cheng said it is conceivable that WHO might convene a meeting of the panel of experts who would advise on that decision - depending on what further investigation in the affected area reveals.

"This is the first time we have seen cases that have gone beyond one generation of human-to-human spread," Cheng told The Canadian Press.

"It is an evolving situation and it is possible we would convene the task force if we saw evidence the virus was changing."

According to the WHO's six-level pandemic staging plan, Phase 3 is no human-to-human spread, or only on rare occasions after close contact with a sick individual. Phase 4 is a small cluster or clusters of limited and localized human-to-human spread, a pattern suggesting the virus had not yet become fully efficient at infecting people. Phase 6 is a pandemic.

Cheng noted the pattern of infections in this cluster seems to point away from a substantial change in the transmissibility of the virus. So do the genetic sequences of two viruses retrieved from this group of people. A statement from the WHO said analysis of those viruses showed "no evidence of significant mutations."

But a veteran U.S. infectious diseases expert said he's worried the world may be seeing something different with this group of cases.

"Certainly there've been more cases in this cluster than we've had before," said Dr. D.A. Henderson, of the Center for Biosecurity of University of Pittsburgh Medical Center.

Previous cases of human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 virus are believed to have happened, but it is thought that in those earlier instances the virus died out after one generation of person-to-person spread.

There has been a clear pattern in all these cases: A family member, closely tending someone severely ill with the virus, becomes infected, presumably through exposure to large amounts of virus. And that pattern appears to hold in the Indonesian family cluster, Cheng said.

Henderson, who wasn't so sure, suggested in this case it seems illness has spread beyond caregivers to others in the family. An 18-month-old girl and a 10-year-old boy are among the dead.

"They all had contact, but it was not the kind of contact we've had described before, where the caregiver would be really heavily exposed," he noted.

"And from that standpoint, I find this worrisome. And I think there is an awful lot of information we need about those cases and the circumstances."

Cheng said if new cases began to emerge where people with only passing contact with a case became infected "certainly our level of alarm would increase."

"We haven't seen any evidence that's the case," she added. "So far we haven't identified cases outside this family cluster."

Expert investigators from the WHO and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control believe a woman who died in early May infected some members of her extended family, including a 10-year-old nephew.

During his illness, the boy's father helped nurse the child. The boy died on May 13. Two days later his father started developing symptoms . On May 22, the father died.

Cheng said the current theory is that the index case infected her nephew, who infected his father.

The first case, who died on May 4, was not tested before her burial and is not factored into the WHO's official case count. Investigators in the village of Kubu Sembelang in the Karo district of North Sumatra are watching closely for any evidence the virus is continuing to spread among contacts of the family. Cheng said 33 people are under observation, though she had not heard whether any of them are showing signs of illness.

Some are being given the flu antiviral oseltamivir or Tamiflu. Others were not. Cheng wasn't clear why all the contacts were not taking the drug.

But there have been reports that the rapid and devastating decimation of this family - eight people have become ill, seven have died - has triggered a local crisis of confidence with surviving residents of the village demonstrating fear and hostility to authorities. It was reported, for instance, that the man who died on May 22 refused to take Tamiflu. He fled from the investigators and authorities and lived on the run, sheltered by friends, for the final four days of his life.

"We are still not getting the level of co-operation we would consider optimal," Cheng admitted. Additional WHO personnel are being sent to the village. Included in the group is an expert on social mobilization - the art of gaining local trust and co-operation in the high tension setting of an infectious disease outbreak.

-

A timeline on the Indonesian H5N1 avian flu case cluster. (The date of onset of disease for the sole surviving member of this cluster of cases, a 25-year old man who was a brother of the initial case, is not available.):

April 27 - A 37-year-old woman falls ill with respiratory symptoms. She dies May 4 and is buried without any samples being taken.

May 9 - The woman's 15-year-old son dies.

May 10 - The woman's 28-year-old sister dies.

May 12 - The woman's 17-year-old son died.

May 13 - The woman's 10-year-old nephew died.

May 14 - The sister's 18-month-old daughter dies.

May 15 - The father of the 10-year-old boy falls ill. This man, 32, is a brother of the first case. He flees from authorities.

May 22 - The man died.

 

[purepolly]

"I'd feel less comfortable seeing this info coming from reliable sources."

http://today.reuters.com/investing/fina...BIRDFLU-INDONESIA-UPDATE-1-PICTURE.XML

 

[BuckNaked]

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/conten...uenza/avianflu/news/jul1206mutate.html

Report: H5N1 mutated rapidly in Indonesian cluster

Jul 12, 2006 (CIDRAP News) ? Genetic studies show that the H5N1 avian influenza virus mutated multiple times as it spread through an Indonesia family in May, but the significance of the changes is uncertain, according to a news report today in Nature.

The journal, basing its report on confidential genetic sequence data, published a chart showing that a total of 32 mutations were identified in viruses collected from six patients in the family case cluster. Previous reports from the World Health Organization and other experts gave the impression that only a few mutations had been found.

The case cluster in North Sumatra involved a 37-year-old woman who apparently contracted the virus from poultry and then passed it to six relatives before she died. One of those six, a 10-year-old boy, then passed the virus to his father. WHO officials said last month that a specific mutation found in the boy and his father marked the first laboratory confirmation of human-to-human transmission of the virus.

On May 23, the WHO said genetic sequencing of two viruses from the case cluster had shown "no evidence of genetic reassortment with human or pig influenza viruses and no evidence of significant mutations." A month later, at the end of an avian flu conference in Jakarta, WHO officials told reporters the virus had mutated slightly when it infected the 10-year-old boy, and the same mutation showed up in his father. The mutation didn't make the virus more transmissible or virulent, officials said.

The genetic data obtained by Nature came from a presentation by University of Hong Kong virologist Malik Peiris at a closed session of the Jakarta meeting in June, the article says.

The magazine says that 21 mutations were identified in a virus from the father of the 10-year-old boy, involving seven of the virus's eight genes, suggesting that the virus was evolving rapidly as it spread. In addition, from one to four mutations were found in viruses collected from five other patients.

The story says one of the mutations confers resistance to the antiviral drug amantadine, a finding not reported by the WHO.

However, the virus did not spread beyond the extended family, as the article notes. "Many of the genetic changes did not result in the use of different amino acids by the virus," the story says. "And there were no amino-acid changes in key receptor binding sites known to affect pathogenicity and transmissibility."

According to the magazine, viruses from six of the eight cases in the cluster have been sequenced, but the WHO has not shared the findings, saying they belong to Indonesia. The data have been released only to a few researchers linked to the WHO and the US Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, the story says.

Virologists quoted by the journal asserted that the withholding of sequence data on H5N1 is hindering scientists' understanding of the virus. But WHO staff member Paul Gully replied, according to the article, that the agency's job is investigating outbreaks, not doing academic research, and that labs don't have the time or resources to do "high-quality sequencing" during outbreaks.

See also:

May 23 WHO statement on genetic data from the case cluster
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_05_23/en/index.html

Jun 23 CIDRAP News story "H5N1 mutation showed human transmission in Indonesia"

 

[XZeroII]

Look up the REAL killer,

http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/f/flu/deaths.htm

Deaths from Flu: 63,730 annual deaths for influenza and pneumonia (NVSR Sep 2001); estimated 20,000 deaths from flu (NIAID)
Cause of death rank: 7th leading cause of death in 1999 and 2000 is "pneumonia/influenza" (CDC)
Death rate extrapolations for USA for Flu: 63,729 per year, 5,310 per month, 1,225 per week, 174 per day, 7 per hour, 0 per minute, 0 per second


Now tell me why we are so concerned that 40 people have died in the past couple years from this other crap?

 

[shira]

Originally posted by: XZeroII
Look up the REAL killer,

http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/f/flu/deaths.htm

Deaths from Flu: 63,730 annual deaths for influenza and pneumonia (NVSR Sep 2001); estimated 20,000 deaths from flu (NIAID)
Cause of death rank: 7th leading cause of death in 1999 and 2000 is "pneumonia/influenza" (CDC)
Death rate extrapolations for USA for Flu: 63,729 per year, 5,310 per month, 1,225 per week, 174 per day, 7 per hour, 0 per minute, 0 per second


Now tell me why we are so concerned that 40 people have died in the past couple years from this other crap?

Are you really as lacking in imagination as your post suggests?

OK, let me spell it out for you:

It's not the 132 (not 40) deaths to date (over 100 in the last couple of years) that is a concern. It's the fact that avian influenza will eventually become highly contagious human-to-human (it's not a question of "if"; it's a question of "when"). If by the time that change occurs we have not already developed a highly effective vaccine in sufficient quantities to broadly immunize the population, H5N1 influenza has the potential of killing hundreds of millions - perhaps billions - of humans worldwide

H5N1 has a fatality rate of over 57% to date (65% in 2006). Despite assertions by some public health officials that H5N1 will become much less deadly as it mutates, that conclusion may just be wishful thinking. For its "worst case" projections, the Congressional Budget Office used a fatality rate of 2.5% to determine the economic impact to the U.S. of a "severe" pandemic, and came up with a 5% decrease in GDP. Can you imagine the cataclysmic impact if the fatality rate were instead merely 5%? (Hint: it's not linear). Or how about a fatality rate of 10%? 20%? 50%?

So this is not about 41 dead in Indonesia. It's about the very real possiblity that a highly contagious disease with an extremely high fatality rate could decimate the human population.

 

[XZeroII]

Originally posted by: shira

Originally posted by: XZeroII
Look up the REAL killer,

http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/f/flu/deaths.htm

Deaths from Flu: 63,730 annual deaths for influenza and pneumonia (NVSR Sep 2001); estimated 20,000 deaths from flu (NIAID)
Cause of death rank: 7th leading cause of death in 1999 and 2000 is "pneumonia/influenza" (CDC)
Death rate extrapolations for USA for Flu: 63,729 per year, 5,310 per month, 1,225 per week, 174 per day, 7 per hour, 0 per minute, 0 per second


Now tell me why we are so concerned that 40 people have died in the past couple years from this other crap?

Are you really as lacking in imagination as your post suggests?

OK, let me spell it out for you:

It's not the 132 (not 40) deaths to date (over 100 in the last couple of years) that is a concern. It's the fact that avian influenza will eventually become highly contagious human-to-human (it's not a question of "if"; it's a question of "when"). If by the time that change occurs we have not already developed a highly effective vaccine in sufficient quantities to broadly immunize the population, H5N1 influenza has the potential of killing hundreds of millions - perhaps billions - of humans worldwide

H5N1 has a fatality rate of over 57% to date (65% in 2006). Despite assertions by some public health officials that H5N1 will become much less deadly as it mutates, that conclusion may just be wishful thinking. For its "worst case" projections, the Congressional Budget Office used a fatality rate of 2.5% to determine the economic impact to the U.S. of a "severe" pandemic, and came up with a 5% decrease in GDP. Can you imagine the cataclysmic impact if the fatality rate were instead merely 5%? (Hint: it's not linear). Or how about a fatality rate of 10%? 20%? 50%?

So this is not about 41 dead in Indonesia. It's about the very real possiblity that a highly contagious disease with an extremely high fatality rate could decimate the human population.

This is ALL hypothetical. There is no evidence that any of this will actually happen. It's all scare tactics. If you look at the worst case scenario for just about any potential threat, then you could say that we are always doomed. Worst case scenario means just that. I have yet to see anywhere that has any odds for when the human population will be decimated. Why? Because no one has them. It could be that it fully mutates in 100 years and it turns out to kill 1,000 people. Yet here we are shaking in our boots praying that we live another day. Come on people. Just let the professional community deal with it like they deal with hundreds of other cases like this yearly. The average person shouldn't be concerned with this crap. It just causes unnecessary stress.

 

[shira]

Originally posted by: XZeroII

Originally posted by: shira

Originally posted by: XZeroII
Look up the REAL killer,

http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/f/flu/deaths.htm

Deaths from Flu: 63,730 annual deaths for influenza and pneumonia (NVSR Sep 2001); estimated 20,000 deaths from flu (NIAID)
Cause of death rank: 7th leading cause of death in 1999 and 2000 is "pneumonia/influenza" (CDC)
Death rate extrapolations for USA for Flu: 63,729 per year, 5,310 per month, 1,225 per week, 174 per day, 7 per hour, 0 per minute, 0 per second


Now tell me why we are so concerned that 40 people have died in the past couple years from this other crap?

Are you really as lacking in imagination as your post suggests?

OK, let me spell it out for you:

It's not the 132 (not 40) deaths to date (over 100 in the last couple of years) that is a concern. It's the fact that avian influenza will eventually become highly contagious human-to-human (it's not a question of "if"; it's a question of "when"). If by the time that change occurs we have not already developed a highly effective vaccine in sufficient quantities to broadly immunize the population, H5N1 influenza has the potential of killing hundreds of millions - perhaps billions - of humans worldwide

H5N1 has a fatality rate of over 57% to date (65% in 2006). Despite assertions by some public health officials that H5N1 will become much less deadly as it mutates, that conclusion may just be wishful thinking. For its "worst case" projections, the Congressional Budget Office used a fatality rate of 2.5% to determine the economic impact to the U.S. of a "severe" pandemic, and came up with a 5% decrease in GDP. Can you imagine the cataclysmic impact if the fatality rate were instead merely 5%? (Hint: it's not linear). Or how about a fatality rate of 10%? 20%? 50%?

So this is not about 41 dead in Indonesia. It's about the very real possiblity that a highly contagious disease with an extremely high fatality rate could decimate the human population.

This is ALL hypothetical. There is no evidence that any of this will actually happen. It's all scare tactics. If you look at the worst case scenario for just about any potential threat, then you could say that we are always doomed. Worst case scenario means just that. I have yet to see anywhere that has any odds for when the human population will be decimated. Why? Because no one has them. It could be that it fully mutates in 100 years and it turns out to kill 1,000 people. Yet here we are shaking in our boots praying that we live another day. Come on people. Just let the professional community deal with it like they deal with hundreds of other cases like this yearly. The average person shouldn't be concerned with this crap. It just causes unnecessary stress.

You posed the question "Why is everyone so concerned . . . ?" I answered that question. Now you seem to have a problem with "theoretical" issues.

May I point out that everything that has not already happened is "theoretical?"

And, no, this isn't "all scare tactics." I have a friend here in D.C. area who is one of the world's leading authorities on infectious diseases. He's seen it all: AIDS, Ebola, SARS, West Nile Virus, Lyme Disease, and now H5N1 influenza. He continually informs me on the latest research and conclusions on various infectious agents. He's told me many things over the years that I've found alarming, and I've pleaded with him on more than one occasion to send op-ed pieces to the Washington Post. He's always declined. But I can tell you that he has never before expressed anywhere near the level of concern he does currently for avian flu.

And this isn't just him. There a strong consensus among epidemiologists that avian flu is potentially the worst health threat to surface since at least the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think you know how unpopular the Bush administration is with scientists. Bush and his merry men routinely poo-poo science in order to further their own ideological agenda. Yet even the administration has sounded the alarm on avian flu. Nevertheless, my friend and most of his colleagues view the U.S.'s preparations to be grossly deficient, and the lives of tens of millions of Americans may be forfeit because of it.

One thing I find particularly perplexing is that whenever alarms are raised about this or that threat (the ozone hole, global warming, avian flu), the popular response is to cry "scare tactics". Yet when one of the predicted catastrophes comes to pass - such as the flooding of New Orleans because of decades of neglect in maintaining the levees - that same populace decries the government for a lack of foresight and/or for being unprepared for emergencies.

So keep your head in the sand if you want to. But if one of your loved ones dies from avian flu because a vaccine that might have been produced in a timely fashion is unavailable because of a lack of adequate funding or there's insufficient supply to vaccinate everyone for the same reason, please don't blame your government for not doing more. Clearly, you think the current government response is more than adequate.

 

[BuckNaked]

Originally posted by: shira

Originally posted by: XZeroII

Originally posted by: shira

Originally posted by: XZeroII
Look up the REAL killer,

http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/f/flu/deaths.htm

Deaths from Flu: 63,730 annual deaths for influenza and pneumonia (NVSR Sep 2001); estimated 20,000 deaths from flu (NIAID)
Cause of death rank: 7th leading cause of death in 1999 and 2000 is "pneumonia/influenza" (CDC)
Death rate extrapolations for USA for Flu: 63,729 per year, 5,310 per month, 1,225 per week, 174 per day, 7 per hour, 0 per minute, 0 per second


Now tell me why we are so concerned that 40 people have died in the past couple years from this other crap?

Are you really as lacking in imagination as your post suggests?

OK, let me spell it out for you:

It's not the 132 (not 40) deaths to date (over 100 in the last couple of years) that is a concern. It's the fact that avian influenza will eventually become highly contagious human-to-human (it's not a question of "if"; it's a question of "when"). If by the time that change occurs we have not already developed a highly effective vaccine in sufficient quantities to broadly immunize the population, H5N1 influenza has the potential of killing hundreds of millions - perhaps billions - of humans worldwide

H5N1 has a fatality rate of over 57% to date (65% in 2006). Despite assertions by some public health officials that H5N1 will become much less deadly as it mutates, that conclusion may just be wishful thinking. For its "worst case" projections, the Congressional Budget Office used a fatality rate of 2.5% to determine the economic impact to the U.S. of a "severe" pandemic, and came up with a 5% decrease in GDP. Can you imagine the cataclysmic impact if the fatality rate were instead merely 5%? (Hint: it's not linear). Or how about a fatality rate of 10%? 20%? 50%?

So this is not about 41 dead in Indonesia. It's about the very real possiblity that a highly contagious disease with an extremely high fatality rate could decimate the human population.

This is ALL hypothetical. There is no evidence that any of this will actually happen. It's all scare tactics. If you look at the worst case scenario for just about any potential threat, then you could say that we are always doomed. Worst case scenario means just that. I have yet to see anywhere that has any odds for when the human population will be decimated. Why? Because no one has them. It could be that it fully mutates in 100 years and it turns out to kill 1,000 people. Yet here we are shaking in our boots praying that we live another day. Come on people. Just let the professional community deal with it like they deal with hundreds of other cases like this yearly. The average person shouldn't be concerned with this crap. It just causes unnecessary stress.

You posed the question "Why is everyone so concerned . . . ?" I answered that question. Now you seem to have a problem with "theoretical" issues.

May I point out that everything that has not already happened is "theoretical?"

And, no, this isn't "all scare tactics." I have a friend here in D.C. area who is one of the world's leading authorities on infectious diseases. He's seen it all: AIDS, Ebola, SARS, West Nile Virus, Lyme Disease, and now H5N1 influenza. He continually informs me on the latest research and conclusions on various infectious agents. He's told me many things over the years that I've found alarming, and I've pleaded with him on more than one occasion to send op-ed pieces to the Washington Post. He's always declined. But I can tell you that he has never before expressed anywhere near the level of concern he does currently for avian flu.

And this isn't just him. There a strong consensus among epidemiologists that avian flu is potentially the worst health threat to surface since at least the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think you know how unpopular the Bush administration is with scientists. Bush and his merry men routinely poo-poo science in order to further their own ideological agenda. Yet even the administration has sounded the alarm on avian flu. Nevertheless, my friend and most of his colleagues view the U.S.'s preparations to be grossly deficient, and the lives of tens of millions of Americans may be forfeit because of it.

One thing I find particularly perplexing is that whenever alarms are raised about this or that threat (the ozone hole, global warming, avian flu), the popular response is to cry "scare tactics". Yet when one of the predicted catastrophes comes to pass - such as the flooding of New Orleans because of decades of neglect in maintaining the levees - that same populace decries the government for a lack of foresight and/or for being unprepared for emergencies.

So keep your head in the sand if you want to. But if one of your loved ones dies from avian flu because a vaccine that might have been produced in a timely fashion is unavailable because of a lack of adequate funding or there's insufficient supply to vaccinate everyone for the same reason, please don't blame your government for not doing more. Clearly, you think the current government response is more than adequate.

Thanks for this exceptional reply. I wish I could be as eloquent in my responses...

Dave

 

[XZeroII]

Originally posted by: shira

Originally posted by: XZeroII

Originally posted by: shira

Originally posted by: XZeroII
Look up the REAL killer,

http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/f/flu/deaths.htm

Deaths from Flu: 63,730 annual deaths for influenza and pneumonia (NVSR Sep 2001); estimated 20,000 deaths from flu (NIAID)
Cause of death rank: 7th leading cause of death in 1999 and 2000 is "pneumonia/influenza" (CDC)
Death rate extrapolations for USA for Flu: 63,729 per year, 5,310 per month, 1,225 per week, 174 per day, 7 per hour, 0 per minute, 0 per second


Now tell me why we are so concerned that 40 people have died in the past couple years from this other crap?

Are you really as lacking in imagination as your post suggests?

OK, let me spell it out for you:

It's not the 132 (not 40) deaths to date (over 100 in the last couple of years) that is a concern. It's the fact that avian influenza will eventually become highly contagious human-to-human (it's not a question of "if"; it's a question of "when"). If by the time that change occurs we have not already developed a highly effective vaccine in sufficient quantities to broadly immunize the population, H5N1 influenza has the potential of killing hundreds of millions - perhaps billions - of humans worldwide

H5N1 has a fatality rate of over 57% to date (65% in 2006). Despite assertions by some public health officials that H5N1 will become much less deadly as it mutates, that conclusion may just be wishful thinking. For its "worst case" projections, the Congressional Budget Office used a fatality rate of 2.5% to determine the economic impact to the U.S. of a "severe" pandemic, and came up with a 5% decrease in GDP. Can you imagine the cataclysmic impact if the fatality rate were instead merely 5%? (Hint: it's not linear). Or how about a fatality rate of 10%? 20%? 50%?

So this is not about 41 dead in Indonesia. It's about the very real possiblity that a highly contagious disease with an extremely high fatality rate could decimate the human population.

This is ALL hypothetical. There is no evidence that any of this will actually happen. It's all scare tactics. If you look at the worst case scenario for just about any potential threat, then you could say that we are always doomed. Worst case scenario means just that. I have yet to see anywhere that has any odds for when the human population will be decimated. Why? Because no one has them. It could be that it fully mutates in 100 years and it turns out to kill 1,000 people. Yet here we are shaking in our boots praying that we live another day. Come on people. Just let the professional community deal with it like they deal with hundreds of other cases like this yearly. The average person shouldn't be concerned with this crap. It just causes unnecessary stress.

You posed the question "Why is everyone so concerned . . . ?" I answered that question. Now you seem to have a problem with "theoretical" issues.

May I point out that everything that has not already happened is "theoretical?"

And, no, this isn't "all scare tactics." I have a friend here in D.C. area who is one of the world's leading authorities on infectious diseases. He's seen it all: AIDS, Ebola, SARS, West Nile Virus, Lyme Disease, and now H5N1 influenza. He continually informs me on the latest research and conclusions on various infectious agents. He's told me many things over the years that I've found alarming, and I've pleaded with him on more than one occasion to send op-ed pieces to the Washington Post. He's always declined. But I can tell you that he has never before expressed anywhere near the level of concern he does currently for avian flu.

And this isn't just him. There a strong consensus among epidemiologists that avian flu is potentially the worst health threat to surface since at least the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think you know how unpopular the Bush administration is with scientists. Bush and his merry men routinely poo-poo science in order to further their own ideological agenda. Yet even the administration has sounded the alarm on avian flu. Nevertheless, my friend and most of his colleagues view the U.S.'s preparations to be grossly deficient, and the lives of tens of millions of Americans may be forfeit because of it.

One thing I find particularly perplexing is that whenever alarms are raised about this or that threat (the ozone hole, global warming, avian flu), the popular response is to cry "scare tactics". Yet when one of the predicted catastrophes comes to pass - such as the flooding of New Orleans because of decades of neglect in maintaining the levees - that same populace decries the government for a lack of foresight and/or for being unprepared for emergencies.

So keep your head in the sand if you want to. But if one of your loved ones dies from avian flu because a vaccine that might have been produced in a timely fashion is unavailable because of a lack of adequate funding or there's insufficient supply to vaccinate everyone for the same reason, please don't blame your government for not doing more. Clearly, you think the current government response is more than adequate.

I still don't know why everyone is so concerned. Let the scientists and people who deal with this actually deal with it. Why do we have to have increase the average person's stress levels even more by making people think that they are going to die from some disease?

I have NEVER complained once for a lack of preparation for emergencies. We prepare for the emergencies that we determine are most likely, and if we don't then we deserve what we get. Take New Orleans, for example, I don't feel sorry for those people at all. The warning have been around for a long time and we knew that this was going to happen. Scientists also predict a massive earthquake in California. Should we evacuate all those people right now? No, we shouldn't. And I'm not going to cry one tear when the quake comes and kills tens of thousands. Why? Because people can't deal with the stress of everything that could possibly go wrong in this world. We trust that there are people out there who deal with this stuff for us. People know that the quake is coming and if they want to move then they can move. If not, then they accept the consequences.

I'm not saying that the bird flu isn't a threat, but we shouldn't be touting a worst case scenario situation as what is going to happen soon. Let the professionals deal with it and leave me alone.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: shira
I have a friend here in D.C. area who is one of the world's leading authorities on infectious diseases. He's seen it all: AIDS, Ebola, SARS, West Nile Virus, Lyme Disease, and now H5N1 influenza.

But I can tell you that he has never before expressed anywhere near the level of concern he does currently for avian flu.

And this isn't just him. There a strong consensus among epidemiologists that avian flu is potentially the worst health threat to surface since at least the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think you know how unpopular the Bush administration is with scientists. Bush and his merry men routinely poo-poo science in order to further their own ideological agenda. Yet even the administration has sounded the alarm on avian flu. Nevertheless, my friend and most of his colleagues view the U.S.'s preparations to be grossly deficient, and the lives of tens of millions of Americans may be forfeit because of it.

One thing I find particularly perplexing is that whenever alarms are raised about this or that threat (the ozone hole, global warming, avian flu), the popular response is to cry "scare tactics". Yet when one of the predicted catastrophes comes to pass - such as the flooding of New Orleans because of decades of neglect in maintaining the levees - that same populace decries the government for a lack of foresight and/or for being unprepared for emergencies.

So keep your head in the sand if you want to. But if one of your loved ones dies from avian flu because a vaccine that might have been produced in a timely fashion is unavailable because of a lack of adequate funding or there's insufficient supply to vaccinate everyone for the same reason, please don't blame your government for not doing more. Clearly, you think the current government response is more than adequate.

They don't care because it won't affect the vote negatively on their part.

More lowly Democrats would die off leaving the Republicans in even stronger control.

I wouldn't be surprised to find the Bird Flu manufactured by the U.S. and just being tested overseas to see how well it works.

 

[fitzov]

WHO has already admitted that a pandemic is inevitable--it's only a matter of time.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/09/08/bird_flu_pandemic/

 

[Tom]

Ozzy will be the first to go.

 

[conehead433]

Wonder how much money Rumsfield will make off this BS.