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Scientists Fear Bird Flu Virus May Have Mutated {Update 7/18}

BuckNaked

Diamond Member
EDITED FOR FOLLOW-UP 7/18:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N18171921.htm

Get powers ready for bird flu, U.S. governors told
18 Jul 2006 19:52:51 GMT
Source: Reuters

By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - Governors should make sure they have the legal powers they need to impose quarantines, close schools and keep utilities and transport running in case of a bird flu pandemic, according to new primer from the National Governor's Association published on Tuesday.

They should also be working now on clear, simple public messages about the risks of bird flu and what preparations are being made as well as stocking up on food and medical supplies, the document advises.

"Governors should consider creating a state legal team to review current laws and regulations and assess how they would be applied during a pandemic," reads the primer, posted on the Internet at http://www.nga.org.

"For example, decisions on closure of schools, limits on use or practices on mass transit or public transport systems, restrictions on public gatherings, etc., must be determined by state and local officials and supported by local or state policies and law."

The H5N1 avian influenza virus has not yet caused a human pandemic, but it has killed 132 people out of the 230 infected. It has infected birds in about 50 countries and is spreading faster than any other avian influenza ever has.

Many experts believe it may pose the worst threat of an influenza pandemic in 30 years.

"The effects of pandemic flu will be broad, deep and simultaneous," Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty told reporters by telephone from a National Governor's Association meeting in Charleston, South Carolina.

"Medical response will be limited, restrained and potentially depleted during a pandemic," said Pawlenty, a Republican. Outbreaks in people or birds may have to be met with "a pretty aggressive form of containment" and public gatherings eliminated.

CLOSED LIBRARIES

Flu is highly contagious, but the the 1918 flu pandemic, in which between 40 million and 100 million people died, showed that closing big buildings may help.

"Consequently, public facilities -- schools, government offices, transportation hubs, museums, libraries, and convention centers -- would be the first considered for closing," the primer advises.

"Private facilities -- shopping malls, concert halls, skating rinks, gyms, restaurants, bars, theaters, and grocery stores -- may be closed under general emergency powers or special powers granted during times of public health emergencies."

States would also have responsibility for making sure that utilities keep running when workers stay home either because they are sick, caring for relatives, or simply afraid to come out, the governors said.

"What about the guys that go out and repair power lines? You have to think that you are going to have 40 percent absenteeism for a year or more," said Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, incoming chair of the Association and a Democrat.

Governors should be identifying key personnel and making sure each of them has a trained backup in case they cannot come to work, she said.

Telecommunications should be checked now, the document advises. "Many states or state agencies may find, for example, that they do not have sufficient bandwidth or server capacity to allow large-scale telecommuting of its workforce."

States should "encourage and invest in increased food storage in pantries in government facilities such as schools, prisons, cafeterias, group homes, and state institutions," the primer says. Businesses and individuals should do the same.


EDITED FOR FOLLOW-UP 7/12:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/conten...uenza/avianflu/news/jul1206mutate.html

Report: H5N1 mutated rapidly in Indonesian cluster

Jul 12, 2006 (CIDRAP News) ? Genetic studies show that the H5N1 avian influenza virus mutated multiple times as it spread through an Indonesia family in May, but the significance of the changes is uncertain, according to a news report today in Nature.

The journal, basing its report on confidential genetic sequence data, published a chart showing that a total of 32 mutations were identified in viruses collected from six patients in the family case cluster. Previous reports from the World Health Organization and other experts gave the impression that only a few mutations had been found.

The case cluster in North Sumatra involved a 37-year-old woman who apparently contracted the virus from poultry and then passed it to six relatives before she died. One of those six, a 10-year-old boy, then passed the virus to his father. WHO officials said last month that a specific mutation found in the boy and his father marked the first laboratory confirmation of human-to-human transmission of the virus.

On May 23, the WHO said genetic sequencing of two viruses from the case cluster had shown "no evidence of genetic reassortment with human or pig influenza viruses and no evidence of significant mutations." A month later, at the end of an avian flu conference in Jakarta, WHO officials told reporters the virus had mutated slightly when it infected the 10-year-old boy, and the same mutation showed up in his father. The mutation didn't make the virus more transmissible or virulent, officials said.

The genetic data obtained by Nature came from a presentation by University of Hong Kong virologist Malik Peiris at a closed session of the Jakarta meeting in June, the article says.

The magazine says that 21 mutations were identified in a virus from the father of the 10-year-old boy, involving seven of the virus's eight genes, suggesting that the virus was evolving rapidly as it spread. In addition, from one to four mutations were found in viruses collected from five other patients.

The story says one of the mutations confers resistance to the antiviral drug amantadine, a finding not reported by the WHO.

However, the virus did not spread beyond the extended family, as the article notes. "Many of the genetic changes did not result in the use of different amino acids by the virus," the story says. "And there were no amino-acid changes in key receptor binding sites known to affect pathogenicity and transmissibility."

According to the magazine, viruses from six of the eight cases in the cluster have been sequenced, but the WHO has not shared the findings, saying they belong to Indonesia. The data have been released only to a few researchers linked to the WHO and the US Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, the story says.

Virologists quoted by the journal asserted that the withholding of sequence data on H5N1 is hindering scientists' understanding of the virus. But WHO staff member Paul Gully replied, according to the article, that the agency's job is investigating outbreaks, not doing academic research, and that labs don't have the time or resources to do "high-quality sequencing" during outbreaks.

See also:

May 23 WHO statement on genetic data from the case cluster
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_05_23/en/index.html

Jun 23 CIDRAP News story "H5N1 mutation showed human transmission in Indonesia"




Scientists Fear Bird Flu Virus May Have Mutated
May 18, 2006
World Health Organization officials are increasingly concerned that a thus far unexplained outbreak of the bird flu virus could mean that a long-feared scenario has been borne out -- that the virus may have mutated so that it can be passed from one human to another.

Link

Indonesia's great bird flu conspiracy
Officials have put the nation at risk by covering up an epidemic for two years to protect farmers, writes Alan Sipress.

Link

World Health Organization Expands Team Probing Bird Flu Cluster

May 18 (Bloomberg) -- The World Health Organization sent two officials to Indonesia's North Sumatra province to investigate the largest cluster of human bird flu cases, as a government official said sick animals may have been involved.

Link

AVIAN INFLUENZA (117) - INDONESIA (PIGS: SUSPECTED)

Pigs have tested positive for bird flu in the same village on Indonesia's
Sumatra island where 5 people have been confirmed infected with the H5N1
avian influenza virus, a minister said on Thursday.

The minister's comments are also likely to concern health officials. Pigs
can act as mixing vessels in which human and bird flu viruses can swap
genes, leading to a strain that can easily infect people and pass from
person to person.

Link

Avian influenza ? situation in Indonesia ? update 12

The newly confirmed cases bring the total in Indonesia to 40. Of these cases, 31 have been fatal.

Link

Someone pass me a mask..

😀
 
Five bird flu victims in N Sumatra die

Sulani added that in view of the bird flu attack in North Sumatra, on Thursday (18/5) an Indonesian and Who bird flu team will make an inspection of the Kubu Simbelang village in Tiga Panah subdistrict, Tanah Karo regency.

She also said that her side has sent the blood samples of 57 people to the Health Research and Development Centre at the Ministry of Health, as they had been in direct contact with bird flu victims.

The examination shows that six of the blood samples were negative, and the rest had been subjected to more intensive examination.

Link

I wonder what the status of the 51 people is that they have to be subjected to 'more intensive examination'...
 
I love how every time a farmer family gets infected, there is instantly: "It's spreading among humans, we're all gonna die".

Really? Cause there is no other way that farmers who grow poultry and who live in the wilderness, close to many birds could ever get infected by the bird flu... other than from each other right?
 
Interesting map showing the timeline of the virus spreading from the BBC...

BBC

And a thread I was directed to with some satellite images and data on outbreaks, both human and avian... the response by the second person is kind of whacked in my view, and diminishes the original post, but think the original images are worth looking at...

Images

At the same website there is a posting translated from an Indonesian website saying there is the possibility of a 3rd cluster...

Forum Post

Some of you who post things like this in there sig line:

MD-PhD in Molecular Oncology/Immunology: In Progress

but cannot look at events objectively might consider another line of work....

The virus may never go Human to Human, but the fact that it has a very high mortality rate and is rapidly spreading as demonstrated by the above, is cause for at least keeping an eye on things....
 
oh nooooes! I have a pig AND chickens... Am I going to be the first in the U.S.??
 
Originally posted by: Buck_Naked
Interesting map showing the timeline of the virus spreading from the BBC...

BBC

And a thread I was directed to with some satellite images and data on outbreaks, both human and avian... the response by the second person is kind of whacked in my view, and diminishes the original post, but think the original images are worth looking at...

Images

At the same website there is a posting translated from an Indonesian website saying there is the possibility of a 3rd cluster...

Forum Post

Some of you who post things like this in there sig line:

MD-PhD in Molecular Oncology/Immunology: In Progress

but cannot look at events objectively might consider another line of work....

The virus may never go Human to Human, but the fact that it has a very high mortality rate and is rapidly spreading as demonstrated by the above, is cause for at least keeping an eye on things....
In the meantime, probably 1000X as many people have died in those countries in the past couple of months from regular flu... so no, my assessment is pretty accurate.

And you may really want to rethink your attitude if you want anyone to take you seriously.

H5N1 is a serious disease in and of itself... but it is unlikely to become the next pandemic. A cluster the size of 1 family does not indicate airborne transmission, simply because it would never have been discovered in time to prevent additional exposures. Given the extreme transmissibility of endogenous flu viruses, I cannot imagine a scenario where there was a human-to-human virus, and it was successfully contained within a single family.

The timeline is a laughingstock btw. Endemic flu spreads in weeks, not years.
 
If the family lives in a somewhat remote area then there might not be any more cases in this outbreak, even if it is airborn.

Originally posted by: Buck_Naked
Someone pass me a mask..

😀


Protecting yourself with a dust mask, will be like straining rice with a fishnet. I'd like to know if those masks for nerve gas would be more effective.
 
Originally posted by: eilute
If the family lives in a somewhat remote area then there might not be any more cases in this outbreak, even if it is airborn.

Originally posted by: Buck_Naked
Someone pass me a mask..

😀


Protecting yourself with a dust mask, will be like straining rice with a fishnet. I'd like to know if those masks for nerve gas would be more effective.
You can get .2 micron aerosol-protective masks from many websites (I'd stick to the 3M brand). They'll run you about $1 apiece, or less if you buy a lot of them.
 
Originally posted by: Meuge
In the meantime, probably 1000X as many people have died in those countries in the past couple of months from regular flu... so no, my assessment is pretty accurate.

And you may really want to rethink your attitude if you want anyone to take you seriously.

H5N1 is a serious disease in and of itself... but it is unlikely to become the next pandemic. A cluster the size of 1 family does not indicate airborne transmission, simply because it would never have been discovered in time to prevent additional exposures. Given the extreme transmissibility of endogenous flu viruses, I cannot imagine a scenario where there was a human-to-human virus, and it was successfully contained within a single family.

The timeline is a laughingstock btw. Endemic flu spreads in weeks, not years.

Of the 1000X people that died of regular flu, there were 15,000 X 1,000 X infections that were not lethal. If a flu virus has a mortality rate of 60% than we would have 9,000,000 X deaths instead of 1,000 X.

The majority of human flu viruses start in birds and then leap to human. They infect one person, then another, then another. It continues to spread until immunity is built up in the population. What makes H5N1 so different that a human to human strain is unlikely?
 
Originally posted by: Meuge
Originally posted by: Buck_Naked
Interesting map showing the timeline of the virus spreading from the BBC...

BBC

And a thread I was directed to with some satellite images and data on outbreaks, both human and avian... the response by the second person is kind of whacked in my view, and diminishes the original post, but think the original images are worth looking at...

Images

At the same website there is a posting translated from an Indonesian website saying there is the possibility of a 3rd cluster...

Forum Post

Some of you who post things like this in there sig line:

MD-PhD in Molecular Oncology/Immunology: In Progress

but cannot look at events objectively might consider another line of work....

The virus may never go Human to Human, but the fact that it has a very high mortality rate and is rapidly spreading as demonstrated by the above, is cause for at least keeping an eye on things....
In the meantime, probably 1000X as many people have died in those countries in the past couple of months from regular flu... so no, my assessment is pretty accurate.

And you may really want to rethink your attitude if you want anyone to take you seriously.

H5N1 is a serious disease in and of itself... but it is unlikely to become the next pandemic. A cluster the size of 1 family does not indicate airborne transmission, simply because it would never have been discovered in time to prevent additional exposures. Given the extreme transmissibility of endogenous flu viruses, I cannot imagine a scenario where there was a human-to-human virus, and it was successfully contained within a single family.

The timeline is a laughingstock btw. Endemic flu spreads in weeks, not years.

I have given up on being taken seriously in this forum, there is so little objective, informed dicsussion in so few threads, I rarely even take the time to read anything here anymore...

The timeline referred to above is not in relation to the cluster in Indonesia, but the spread of the virus throughout Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, as well as the South Pacific.

The disease was limited to a relatively small area of Southeast Asia until the last year, with a fairly limited number of species acting as a host. Now it appears to have broken that containment, both in regards to geographic location and the genetic diversity that comes with new species acting as a host. I am sure you are aware the role pigs can play as an intermediate host, as well as antigenic shift... Maybe you will find this year old article from Nature discussing H5N1 infections in Indonesian pigs interesting... Link

Meuge, let me ask you this, does the fact that this virus is becoming more widespread in both location and species (or even same species but genetically diverse due to location) it infects increase or decrease the chance that this could POTENTIALLY reassort itself into something else...?

There is every chance that this will burn itself out without much more becoming of it, but at the same time recent developments suggest keeping informed. Just because both the news and people in general have short attention spans, and can only cover one story at a time before runnning it into the ground, doesn't mean you should stop being aware of other things going on around you in the world.





 
Originally posted by: Meuge
You can get .2 micron aerosol-protective masks from many websites (I'd stick to the 3M brand). They'll run you about $1 apiece, or less if you buy a lot of them.

Hmm..if I'm doing my math right that's roughly 3,800 times larger than a Hydrogen atom. The might just be good enough. I'm not real sure how large virures themselves are.
 
Originally posted by: eilute
Originally posted by: Meuge
You can get .2 micron aerosol-protective masks from many websites (I'd stick to the 3M brand). They'll run you about $1 apiece, or less if you buy a lot of them.

Hmm..if I'm doing my math right that's roughly 3,800 times larger than a Hydrogen atom. The might just be good enough. I'm not real sure how large virures themselves are.

N95 or higher is the rating you should look at. And you aren't really trying to filter the virus itself, but the droplets that are ejected when someone sneezes or coughs... Eye protection is as important as the mask, but the greatest way to reduce risk is hygiene. Washing your hands frequently with anti-bacterial soap, not touching eyes, nose or mouth, etc... will go along ways in protecting yourself from catching a cold or flu...
 
Originally posted by: Buck_Naked
Originally posted by: eilute
Originally posted by: Meuge
You can get .2 micron aerosol-protective masks from many websites (I'd stick to the 3M brand). They'll run you about $1 apiece, or less if you buy a lot of them.

Hmm..if I'm doing my math right that's roughly 3,800 times larger than a Hydrogen atom. The might just be good enough. I'm not real sure how large virures themselves are.

N95 or higher is the rating you should look at. And you aren't really trying to filter the virus itself, but the droplets that are ejected when someone sneezes or coughs... Eye protection is as important as the mask, but the greatest way to reduce risk is hygiene. Washing your hands frequently with anti-bacterial soap, not touching eyes, nose or mouth, etc... will go along ways in protecting yourself from catching a cold or flu...

The water droplets might stick to the mask until they evaporate. If this happens, the mask might only be 50% effective against very small particulate matter.
 
http://www.osha.gov/dsg/guidance/avian-flu.html

GUIDANCE FOR MEDICAL WORKERS THAT TRANSPORT/TREAT AVIAN FLU PATIENTS
All patients who present to a health-care setting with fever and respiratory symptoms should be managed according to the CDC's recommendations for respiratory hygiene and cough etiquette and questioned regarding their recent travel history (see http://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/infectioncontrol/resphygiene.htm). It has not yet been determined that avian flu can be spread from person to person. However, due to the potential risks of human to human infection, isolation precautions identical to those recommended for SARS should be implemented for all hospitalized patients diagnosed with or under evaluation for influenza A (H5N1) as follows:

1. Standard Precautions
* Pay careful attention to hand hygiene before and after all patient contact.

2. Contact Precautions
* Use gloves and gown for all patient contact.

3. Eye protection
* Wear when within 3 feet of the patient.

4. Airborne Precautions
* Place the patient in an airborne isolation room (i.e., monitored negative air pressure in relation to the surrounding areas with 6 to 12 air changes per hour).


* The CDC has recommended that, the minimum requirement is a disposable particulate respirator (e.g. N95, N99 or N100) used in accordance with 29 CFR 1910.134 for respiratory protection programs. Workers must be fit tested for -the model and size respirator they wear and must be trained to fit-check for facepiece to face seal, when entering the room.


* If transport or movement is necessary, ensure that the patient wears a surgical mask. If a mask cannot be tolerated, apply the most practical measures to contain respiratory secretions.

One also has to realize that the mask is potentially contaminated and take precautions when removing it... nor are they reusable...

And they are very uncomfortable to wear for extended times...
 
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