Samsung Electronics, the world?s largest DRAM supplier, has forecast that a global DRAM shortage will worsen throughout the rest of this year as makers continue to shift capacity from DRAM to flash and other chip production, according to company sources.
The South Korea-based firm forecast the shortage would widen to 0.8% this quarter from 0.7% last quarter. The firm also forecast the scale of the shortage could reach 1.6% next quarter, according to the sources.
Samsung?s forecast could further lift DRAM prices, which shot up in early April on speculation of a short supply. According to DRAMeXchange, worldwide DRAM production has experienced slow growth during the first four months of this year.
Although prices have followed a downward trend since then, Samsung claims that price falls remain under control, the sources said. The firm expects DRAM makers will continue allocating capacity to other chips, while demand will see a seasonal pickup.
Samsung is also expecting its DDR supply will fall due to its allocation for DDR2.
Nanya also believes supply will remain short through this year, but to a less severe degree, according to company spokesperson Pei-lin Pai. He said PC OEMs? slow adoption of DDR2 will continue driving demand for DDR.
Analysts have mixed views on the outlook for DRAM.
Goldman Sachs, a US-based investment firm, shares the makers? bullish views.
"We have become more confident that back-to-school seasonal demand should not be muted this year...we maintain our view that seasonality may be delayed, but not muted," Henry King, head of Asian technology research at Goldman Sachs in Taipei, noted in a report, as cited by an August 23 Dow Jones Newswires report.
In contrast, Nam Hyung Kim, a principal analyst with iSuppli, is less optimistic. In an August 23 commentary, Kim maintains a negative rating on the DRAM market for the near term since he expects top DRAM makers to continue increasing output.
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