Samsung and Global Foundries will produce AMD's Next Gen Greenland GPU and Zen CPU

[ShintaiDK]

Common console sales seasonality.

Yearly...

 

[mrmt]

Common console sales seasonality.

Hmmmm no. IIRC AMD already stated that the peak of the console sales revenue, as it should. On this type of contract the selling price goes down with the time.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Hmmmm no. IIRC AMD already stated that the peak of the console sales revenue, as it should. On this type of contract the selling price goes down with the time.

Any source for that? All I've seen is that console sales are expected to peak next near:

http://hothardware.com/news/amd-con...16-with-current-generation-bowing-out-in-2019

Also, I suppose the price AMD pays per die goes down over time too, affecting AMD's profit positively.

 

[cytg111]

Any source for that? All I've seen is that colsole sales are expected to peak next near:

http://hothardware.com/news/amd-con...16-with-current-generation-bowing-out-in-2019

Also, I suppose the price AMD pays per die goes down over time too, affecting AMD's profit positively.

Not to meddle too much, but you should really adopt 'their' line of rhetorics and go
"Any source for that - or are you just making stuff up?". Some of these guys dont deserve your nice.

About peaking next year, next year VR is gonna hit BIG time, so yea, I expect bonuses all around.

 

[frozentundra123456]

No like Mantle did and soon DX-12.

Yea, those mantle games have sure taken over the market. There must be at least 10 or so now, out of the thousands of games available.

 

[AtenRa]

Yea, those mantle games have sure taken over the market. There must be at least 10 or so now, out of the thousands of games available.

We were talking about multi-threading and multi-core scaling in DX-12 vs DX-11 and how Mantle performance will be almost the same in DX-12 games.

 

[prtskg]

While multi threaded work is becoming better with newer software, single thread performance is very important and will remain so in foreseeable future. If AMD's Zen really brings 40% improvement over excavator, it'll be around haswell cores in performance and that is quite competitive.

 

[AtenRa]

While multi threaded work is becoming better with newer software, single thread performance is very important and will remain so in foreseeable future. If AMD's Zen really brings 40% improvement over excavator, it'll be around haswell cores in performance and that is quite competitive.

There are DX-11 games today that 8-Core FX CPUs are faster and with lower frametimes than high IPC Core i3 Skylakes.
DX-12 will push multi-core CPUs performance even further with features like Async Compute, making Single thread performance even less important.

So having an extra 40% higher IPC will be welcomed, but its the throughput that we should care more for gaming in 2016 onward.

 

[mrmt]

Any source for that? All I've seen is that console sales are expected to peak next near:

It's SOP on the industry. Whenever you hire a IDM or IHV to manufacture hardware for you the price on the first year will not be higher or even the same than the price on, let's say, the third or fifth year.

So the fact that console sales will peak in the third or fourth year doesn't mean that revenue to component suppliers such as AMD will peak around the same time. In fact, given a node shrink, revenue tends to be much lower around that time frame.

Also, I suppose the price AMD pays per die goes down over time too, affecting AMD's profit positively.

And do you think Sony and Microsoft are dumb enough to leave this for AMD? This is why selling price goes down as the time goes, because costs also go down.

 

[Fjodor2001]

It's SOP on the industry. Whenever you hire a IDM or IHV to manufacture hardware for you the price on the first year will not be higher or even the same than the price on, let's say, the third or fifth year.

So the fact that console sales will peak in the third or fourth year doesn't mean that revenue to component suppliers such as AMD will peak around the same time. In fact, given a node shrink, revenue tends to be much lower around that time frame.

So no source? Just a guess from you based on what is common.

Also, the total revenue depends on both the volume of chips sold and price AMD gets per chip. So far you've not been able to prove that AMD's revenue from consoles already has peaked.

And do you think Sony and Microsoft are dumb enough to leave this for AMD? This is why selling price goes down as the time goes, because costs also go down.

It's not who is "dumb" or not. It's just how the contracts have been set up, which we don't know anything about.

Using your reasoning you could also say that "Do you think Apple will be dumb enough to allow Qualcomm to make profit from their modem chips when die price goes down"?

Regardless, if the price per die goes down AMD will profit from that, all else equal. What the net result is (price drops for AMD's chips sales vs purchases), we don't know.

 

[AtenRa]

It's SOP on the industry. Whenever you hire a IDM or IHV to manufacture hardware for you the price on the first year will not be higher or even the same than the price on, let's say, the third or fifth year.

So the fact that console sales will peak in the third or fourth year doesn't mean that revenue to component suppliers such as AMD will peak around the same time. In fact, given a node shrink, revenue tends to be much lower around that time frame.



And do you think Sony and Microsoft are dumb enough to leave this for AMD? This is why selling price goes down as the time goes, because costs also go down.

Numbers are for illustrated purposes.

2014
20M Console APUs sold
$100 APU selling price

Total revenue = 20M x 100 = 2B

2015
30M Console APUs sold
$90 APU selling price

Total Revenue = 30M x 90 = 2.7B

2016
40M Console APUs sold
$80 APU selling price

Total Revenue = 40M x 80 = 3.2B

 

[mrmt]

So no source? Just a guess from you based on what is common.

Check the Q115 transcript, where Lisa Su says that ASP for console chips is going down this year.

You should check the Q115 quarter transcript, where you can read that ASP prices will go down during this year (and if you read between the lines in 16, 17, 18....). Sometimes it pays off to go beyond wccftech.

Let's see... you pull an assumption out of thin air, that >>AMD console business<< will peak in the third or fourth year, which is simply a distortion of what Lisa Su said, which is that the peak in >>in terms of units sold<< for consoles is around the third or fourth year, and *you* want me to prove something?

It's you that must prove that AMD console business will be different from every single other console deal out there and will improve YoY beyond the second one, but I suggest you improve your comprehension skills first.

One of the reasons for higher console units around the third and fourth year is the significantly lower component costs by that time frame, which allows lower ASP on the retail channels for the consoles. Unless you are implying that Sony and MSFT will actually eat margins by that time frame that implies less money flowing for component makers like AMD.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Check the Q115 transcript, where Lisa Su says that ASP for console chips is going down this year.

ASP != Total Revenue.

You're missing that the volume of chips is expected to go up next year. Check AtenRa's example for clarification.

Let's see... you pull an assumption out of thin air, that >>AMD console business<< will peak in the third or fourth year, which is simply a distortion of what Lisa Su said, which is that the peak in >>in terms of units sold<< for consoles is around the third or fourth year, and *you* want me to prove something?

It's you that must prove that AMD console business will be different from every single other console deal out there and will improve YoY beyond the second one, but I suggest you improve your comprehension skills first.

It's you who made the original claim that AMD's revenue from console sales already has peaked, so the burden of evidence is upon you. So far you've failed to prove that you claim is true.

 

[mrmt]

It's you who made the original claim that AMD's revenue from console sales already has peaked, so the burden of evidence is upon you. So far you've failed to prove that you claim is true.

No, it was AMD balance sheet. Despite AMD shipping more units semicustom revenue is down 2% YoY.

 

[ShintaiDK]

AMDs Semicustom business is down ~100M$ last 9 months in YoY compare in their results using Q3 as latest marker.

1797M$->1698M$.

So we are looking at a 150-200M$ drop for the entire 2016 most likely.

 

[dark zero]

AMDs Semicustom business is down ~100M$ last 9 months in their results using Q3 as latest marker.

However is not as critical compared to CPU tier, also they still are not gaining money with Nintendo NX.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Right, They dropped from 4267M$ to 3033M$ revenue in the same 9 months YoY compare. A complete disaster. The CPU and Graphics division lost ~half their entire revenue.

 

[AtenRa]

AMDs Semicustom business is down ~100M$ last 9 months in YoY compare in their results using Q3 as latest marker.

1797M$->1698M$.

So we are looking at a 150-200M$ drop for the entire 2016 most likely.

Ehm no,

Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom group Revenue declined in 2015 vs 2014. Console APU Revenue (Semi-Custom) increased in 2015.

 

[AtenRa]

double post

 

[ShintaiDK]

Ehm no,

Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom group Revenue declined in 2015 vs 2014. Console APU Revenue (Semi-Custom) increased in 2015.

We have to see with the Q4 and year result. I dont see anything in their statements pointing to a growth.

 

[AtenRa]

We have to see with the Q4 and year result. I dont see anything in their statements pointing to a growth.

They have already said 2015 is the best year for the Semi-Custom segment.

 

[ShintaiDK]

They have already said 2015 is the best year for the Semi-Custom segment.

That would be odd, because it doesn't match shipments of PS4/Xbox One. If anything 2014 was a better year. Also backing up financials. So they had to have an explosion in sales in Q4 to make this possible.

 

[Phynaz]

It's SOP on the industry. Whenever you hire a IDM or IHV to manufacture hardware for you the price on the first year will not be higher or even the same than the price on, let's say, the third or fifth year.

So the fact that console sales will peak in the third or fourth year doesn't mean that revenue to component suppliers such as AMD will peak around the same time. In fact, given a node shrink, revenue tends to be much lower around that time frame.

How many times do we have to go around this block with the same people? You're not going to get anywhere with the deniers, they wouldn't believe a standard manufacturing contract if their own mother had written it.

 

[AtenRa]

How many times do we have to go around this block with the same people? You're not going to get anywhere with the deniers, they wouldn't believe a standard manufacturing contract if their own mother had written it.

Sorry but if your sales volumes increase more than the decline of the selling price you are getting higher revenue than before.

Im sure you and mrmt knows that.

 

[Dresdenboy]

That would be odd, because it doesn't match shipments of PS4/Xbox One. If anything 2014 was a better year. Also backing up financials. So they had to have an explosion in sales in Q4 to make this possible.

That chart is not that useful. Using arguments based on comparing a year with Q4 data included with a year w/o Q4 data unfortunately shows the level of understanding that seasonality as Q4 easily has 2x to 3x the previous quarters' units sold. This is what I say about the smartest algorithms fed with mediocre sensor data: employing the GIGO principle - Garbage In Garbage Out.

How about these (without last 3 weeks of december as available):
http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2013&end_year=2015&console=XOne

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2013&end_year=2015&console=PS4

You might also try this one:
http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php

Millions of hardware units sold. As of 12th December 2015

XBox One should also be just estimated as in the Ars Technica chart due to MS policy (which is an understandable move).