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Sadr Extends Shi'ite Ceasfire in Iraq

palehorse

palehorse

Lifer
Sadr Extends Ceasefire!

Well, it looks like all the doom and gloom many around here predicted has at least been postponed a bit...

Could this be considered a sign of some political progress being made in Iraq, or is it simply a delay of an inevitable implosion further down the road?

OK, it's the Pessimists vs. Optimists vs. Realists.... GO!
 
Originally posted by: palehorse74
Sadr Extends Ceasefire!

Well, it looks like all the doom and gloom many around here predicted has been postponed a bit...

Could this be considered a sign of some political progress being made in Iraq, or is it simply a delay of an inevitable implosion further down the road?

OK, it's the Pessimists vs. Optimists vs. Realists.... GO!
Click to expand...

Great the surge worked. Now lets start bringing our boys home!
 
Originally posted by: Red Dawn
Originally posted by: palehorse74
Sadr Extends Ceasefire!

Well, it looks like all the doom and gloom many around here predicted has been postponed a bit...

Could this be considered a sign of some political progress being made in Iraq, or is it simply a delay of an inevitable implosion further down the road?

OK, it's the Pessimists vs. Optimists vs. Realists.... GO!
Click to expand...

Great the surge worked. Now lets start bringing our boys home!
Click to expand...

The surge is going to work for another 100 years.
 
Originally posted by: palehorse74
Sadr Extends Ceasefire!

Well, it looks like all the doom and gloom many around here predicted has at least been postponed a bit...

Could this be considered a sign of some political progress being made in Iraq, or is it simply a delay of an inevitable implosion further down the road?

OK, it's the Pessimists vs. Optimists vs. Realists.... GO!
Click to expand...

What about us cynicists? 😀

Good news at least, less combat is always a good thing, have to wait and see what the gov't does though.
 
Very good news. No matter what some try to claim, no one wants there to be more killing over there... either of Iraquis or Americans.

 
Progress: End Syria + Iran

Can't wage a war in Iraq while ignoring the supply train coming from the neighboring states. We're just wasting ammo

 
Originally posted by: Ldir
It is good news. It has nothing to do with Dub's surge.
Click to expand...

Actually, it has a lot to do with the surge. The Mahdi Army has been slapped down pretty hard in teh past when it tried to take on US forces. But it always knew that all it had to do was wait awhile and the US would move on because we never had enough troops to stay put.

Now that we do, Sadr isn't going to risk his power base being disassembled so he will lay low for as long as it takes. Whether this is permanent or not will only be apparent when the Iraqui's themselves have full control over the security of there country.

I for one, believe Sadr is just playing a waiting game. I hope I am wrong.
 
I'm glad that Petreus and whomever else is over the negotiating (yes we are negotiating with him) this was able to get it done. It will certainly keep the violence down and give the Iraqis time to get their shit together. Whether they will or won't is another story....but they have some time to try.
 
Good news indeed.

Sadr likely knows that momentum gained from the surge would cause a serious backlash against him if he used his militia to attempt to make another power grab. Not only would he get slapped down by the US, he'd get slapped down by the Iraqi forces that are built up enough to take him on now. Since he doesn't want to risk a nearly sure defeat and the humilation that would accompny such a defeat the only possible way for him to save face is to proclaim an extension to his "ceasefire." That way at least he gives the public appearance of being magnanimous when the truth is that he realistically doesn't have much choice in the matter.

Of course, that's all speculation but it's no more speculative than claiming the Surge had nothing to do with his decision.
 
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Good news indeed.

Sadr likely knows that momentum gained from the surge would cause a serious backlash against him if he used his militia to attempt to make another power grab. Not only would he get slapped down by the US, he'd get slapped down by the Iraqi forces that are built up enough to take him on now. Since he doesn't want to risk a nearly sure defeat and the humilation that would accompny such a defeat the only possible way for him to save face is to proclaim an extension to his "ceasefire." That way at least he gives the public appearance of being magnanimous when the truth is that he realistically doesn't have much choice in the matter.

Of course, that's all speculation but it's no more speculative than claiming the Surge had nothing to do with his decision.
Click to expand...
I don't think he fears the Iraqi forces, at least half whom are Shiite themselves and probably would have mixed loyalties.
 
Why should he fight? The US is digging it's own ruinous grave in Iraq. And the Shiites will continue to have the political power in Iraq since they are the clear majority. If a Democrat wins the election he can always restart the insurgency and watch the uproar in the US as Americans begin to die again. For now he is just happy to consolidate and build up power networks. Also as long as the US military is tied up in Iraq it cannot attack Iran. If the US starts pulling out troops he can always start having 'rogue' groups attack those US forces left to force the US to 'surge' again. This game can go on for years and years until the US has had enough. Especially since the US can only trust the Sunnis for as much as they can pay them, if that. The Sunnis are on the US payroll, the Shiites are letting the US push them into the political power.

 
Originally posted by: Red Dawn
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Good news indeed.

Sadr likely knows that momentum gained from the surge would cause a serious backlash against him if he used his militia to attempt to make another power grab. Not only would he get slapped down by the US, he'd get slapped down by the Iraqi forces that are built up enough to take him on now. Since he doesn't want to risk a nearly sure defeat and the humilation that would accompny such a defeat the only possible way for him to save face is to proclaim an extension to his "ceasefire." That way at least he gives the public appearance of being magnanimous when the truth is that he realistically doesn't have much choice in the matter.

Of course, that's all speculation but it's no more speculative than claiming the Surge had nothing to do with his decision.
Click to expand...
I don't think he fears the Iraqi forces, at least half whom are Shiite themselves and probably would have mixed loyalties.
Click to expand...
That might be so if we assume that Shi'ite loyalties are monolithic in nature. However, Sadr's own loyalties to Iran don't sit well with a lot of Shi'ites that still hold a grudge over the Iran/Iraq war. It's doubtful that many Shi'ites would have an issue taking down another Shi'ite who was viewed as being little more an Iranian proxy.
 
I know everything there is to know about Sadr, his motives, and the political realities of all the player's in Iraq, and of course, I can tell you exactly everything that this means.
 
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I know everything there is to know about Sadr, his motives, and the political realities of all the player's in Iraq, and of course, I can tell you exactly everything that this means.
Click to expand...
Great. If you know all that how about adding something more to the discussion than your usual snide, sarcastic remarks?
 
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Originally posted by: Red Dawn
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Good news indeed.

Sadr likely knows that momentum gained from the surge would cause a serious backlash against him if he used his militia to attempt to make another power grab. Not only would he get slapped down by the US, he'd get slapped down by the Iraqi forces that are built up enough to take him on now. Since he doesn't want to risk a nearly sure defeat and the humilation that would accompny such a defeat the only possible way for him to save face is to proclaim an extension to his "ceasefire." That way at least he gives the public appearance of being magnanimous when the truth is that he realistically doesn't have much choice in the matter.

Of course, that's all speculation but it's no more speculative than claiming the Surge had nothing to do with his decision.
Click to expand...
I don't think he fears the Iraqi forces, at least half whom are Shiite themselves and probably would have mixed loyalties.
Click to expand...
That might be so if we assume that Shi'ite loyalties are monolithic in nature. However, Sadr's own loyalties to Iran don't sit well with a lot of Shi'ites that still hold a grudge over the Iran/Iraq war. It's doubtful that many Shi'ites would have an issue taking down another Shi'ite who was viewed as being little more an Iranian proxy.
Click to expand...


yea, not all shites get along
 
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I know everything there is to know about Sadr, his motives, and the political realities of all the player's in Iraq, and of course, I can tell you exactly everything that this means.
Click to expand...
Great. If you know all that how about adding something more to the discussion than your usual snide, sarcastic remarks?
Click to expand...

Because you can take from what I said only what you can carry. A snide sarcastic remark was all there was for you. What is the difference between a deep ocean and the shallowest sea when all you look at is your own face reflected on the surface?
 
Well it very good news indeed. Uncle Sam and GWB, if they behave, can have six more months on probation. Just a small reminder from Al Sadr, the one person in Iraq
who really has the ability to SURGE and make a surge into more than a slogan.

Come around August 22, there may be a re-evaluation of our behavior.
 
Originally posted by: Lemon law
Well it very good news indeed. Uncle Sam and GWB, if they behave, can have six more months on probation. Just a small reminder from Al Sadr, the one person in Iraq
who really has the ability to SURGE and make a surge into more than a slogan.

Come around August 22, there may be a re-evaluation of our behavior.
Click to expand...
Sadr is so powerful he had to hike up his skirt and scurry off to Iran when the Surge began.
 
Originally posted by: event8horizon
the surge didnt work. we havent de-nationalized their oil yet. big oil hasnt had a chance to reap the benefits!!!!
Click to expand...
A reconciliation law was passed recently.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/12/africa/iraq.php

An amnesty law was passed recently.

http://www.upi.com/Internation..._as_breakthrough/1741/

A provincial elections law was passed recently:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080213/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq

3 more benchmarks down. Unfortunately the MSM only feels obliged to comment when there's no progress in Iraq so many probably aren't aware that there has been significant progress.

The oil revenue distribution law is currently in the draft stage. There's still more work to get it hammered out, but Iraqi Parliament moving closer to polishing it off. So the anti-war types better start digging soon for something else to use to prop up their claim that "The Surge didn't work."
 
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