Russia may change stance on Iran due to West response to Ukraine

[Texashiker]

Holy crap, things just got serious,

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...stance-on-iran-in-retaliation-over-sanctions/

Russia reportedly is prepared to change its stand on Iran nuclear talks in a high-stakes gamble to counter expanded sanctions by the United States and the European Union over Crimea.

After the Obama administration on Monday hit 11 Russian and Ukrainian officials with sanctions -- a move criticized by Republican lawmakers as too timid -- Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted Wednesday by the Interfax news agency as saying the country may have to alter its position on the negotiations over Iran's nuclear program.

I hope Russia does not start supplying nuclear information and/or material to Iran over this Crimea / Ukraine issue.

Israel has been making threats towards Iran for years. I wonder if this will provoke Israel to make its move.

 

[Agent11]

Obama is such an idiot. He should have known he had a losing hand in the Ukraine and played a long game. Instead he blustered and blew.

 

[PokerGuy]

As incompetent as our dear leader is, I don't think there's a whole lot he could have done differently in this scenario. We simply don't have the power to compel Russia or China to do what we want them to do. They know our sanctions are meaningless. He had a losing hand and as with Syria he's been thoroughly outplayed on the big stage by a savvy / ruthless political player.

 

[K1052]

Iran could give two shits about Russia. They aren't going to be the ones that help them out of economic stagnation, only improved relations with the EU/US can do that. If Russia takes it's ball and goes home so be it.

 

[zinfamous]

Things did not just get real. Putin is playing from an increasingly weakened hand.

 

[Fern]

I've seen numerous US diplomat types discuss this topic in the days/weeks leading up to the Crimea situation. Most seemed unconcerned because they claimed Russia had never been particularly helpful with Iran so there was nothing to lose in that regard.

Fern

 

[Kadarin]

At this time, that foxnews link appears to be broken.

 

[Texashiker]

At this time, that foxnews link appears to be broken.

Looks like the URL may have changed.

Opening post has been updated with new link.

 

[OCGuy]

Russia will suddenly be honoring their SAM battery contracts that were mysteriously breached, as a quid-pro-quo for the USA not supplying the bunker busters and external fuel tanks requested by Israel.

That was back when the US/Russia were cooperating, however.

 

[JTsyo]

We should use this as an excuse to be buddy buddy with Iran. Then develop a means to put astronauts back in space to take away Russia's response.

 

[OCGuy]

We should use this as an excuse to be buddy buddy with Iran. Then develop a means to put astronauts back in space to take away Russia's response.

Well this seems as well thought-out as anything else that is coming out of this administration. :biggrin:

 

[Texashiker]

Things did not just get real. Putin is playing from an increasingly weakened hand.

How is Putin playing with a weak hand?

That is meant as a serious question.

If anything, helping Iran changes the whole middle east / global peace issue. Israel has been talking about striking Iran. Russia starts sending trainloads of supplies to Iran, this destabilizes the middle east by proxy.

Putin could start a new war in the middle east without ever having to lift a finger, and a war he is not involved in.

On the other hand, we would be drawn into any conflict that involved Israel.

Putin would laugh all the way to the bank for trading nuclear technology for gold.

Putin has a very strong hand in that he could contribute to a conflict, step back and watch all the fun on CNN.

 

[Anarchist420]

looks more and more every day like Dr. Paul 2012 was really the last chance to restore america.

and i also cant believe that so many people here think the u.s.g. is innocent. i also dont know why so many subjects of the U.S.G. actually want it to intervene. i mean, those who dont want crimea to secede could try to stop it via purely voluntary means rather than being dickheads trying to force everyone into it.

putin would torture me in a heartbeat, but obama's hyper-interventionist ass is allowing all this shit to happen. he just doesnt give much of a fuck about anyone but himself. i just hope that right before the shit starts hitting the fan i get killed right away and not tortured.

but we know the u.s.g. is about to collapse when it has such low self control that it is plundering its subjects in the hopes that it can stop people half the globe away from seceding (or protect them, depending on who is telling the truth)

 

[K1052]

How is Putin playing with a weak hand?

That is meant as a serious question.

If anything, helping Iran changes the whole middle east / global peace issue. Israel has been talking about striking Iran. Russia starts sending trainloads of supplies to Iran, this destabilizes the middle east by proxy.

Putin could start a new war in the middle east without ever having to lift a finger, and a war he is not involved in.

On the other hand, we would be drawn into any conflict that involved Israel.

Putin would laugh all the way to the bank for trading nuclear technology for gold.

Putin has a very strong hand in that he could contribute to a conflict, step back and watch all the fun on CNN.

Current Russian Iranian trade is worth about $4B a year. There are $100B in frozen Iranian assets and $75B-$125B in annual oil/ng trade alone that would be accessible if sanctions are relaxed. I think the Iranians can probably do the math as to what's in their interest.

 

[Brovane]

As incompetent as our dear leader is, I don't think there's a whole lot he could have done differently in this scenario. We simply don't have the power to compel Russia or China to do what we want them to do. They know our sanctions are meaningless. He had a losing hand and as with Syria he's been thoroughly outplayed on the big stage by a savvy / ruthless political player.

I agree with or hand being weak. This is certainly in the sphere of influence for Russia and there isn't much we can do. I believe that Obama blustered to much on this. I would have just told Putin that their would be long term negative consequences for breaking treaties. As soon as I get off the phone with Putin I call Poland then do a public announcement that all current US Bases in Germany will move to Poland and the we will be deploying missile defense systems in Poland at the first opportunity. If Russia bitches tell them they can no longer be trusted to respect treaties.

 

[K1052]

I agree with or hand being weak. This is certainly in the sphere of influence for Russia and there isn't much we can do. I believe that Obama blustered to much on this. I would have just told Putin that their would be long term negative consequences for breaking treaties. As soon as I get off the phone with Putin I call Poland then do a public announcement that all current US Bases in Germany will move to Poland and the we will be deploying missile defense systems in Poland at the first opportunity. If Russia bitches tell them they can no longer be trusted to respect treaties.

Edit: never mind you fixed it

 

[OCGuy]

^ I agree with you there, Brovane. John Kerry, and whoever put him up to it, have played this worse than I have ever seen in my lifetime.

This public scolding over something that we have no part in, that everyone knew had no teeth from the beginning, are flat out embarrassing.

 

[K1052]

^ I agree with you there, Brovane. John Kerry, and whoever put him up to it, have played this worse than I have ever seen in my lifetime.

This public scolding over something that we have no part in, that everyone knew had no teeth from the beginning, are flat out embarrassing.

There aren't many real near term options other than rhetoric and some light to moderate economic retaliation.

Down the road a little farther the focus should probably be on courting Sweden and Finland into NATO and accelerating the accession of Georgia, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Montenegro, and the remainder of Ukraine.

 

[OCGuy]

Down the road a little farther the focus should probably be on courting Sweden and Finland into NATO and accelerating the accession of Georgia, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Montenegro, and the remainder of Ukraine.

Yes, because what NATO (which at this point militarily is the United States) needs is to put more ex-Soviet satellites under our protective umbrella. Because we can really afford it.

Screw anyone who thinks we need anymore trip-wires for war than we already have. China is already testing our Nuclear Umbrella, and they aren't done yet. They want payback for Nanking, and they want Taiwan.

All of this should have been behind the scenes like how adults conduct foreign policy.

 

[K1052]

Yes, because what NATO (which at this point militarily is the United States) needs is to put more ex-Soviet satellites under our protective umbrella. Because we can really afford it.

Screw anyone who thinks we need anymore trip-wires for war than we already have. China is already testing our Nuclear Umbrella, and they aren't done yet. They want payback for Nanking, and they want Taiwan.

All of this should have been behind the scenes like how adults conduct foreign policy.

The European nations still have armed forces. Defense expenditures by Germany, UK, France, and Italy alone are about 2.5 times what Russia spends.

China is flexing it's regional muscle, nothing more.

If Obama said nothing the entire GOP would be condemning him for not saying anything. I really don't see much in the way of alternatives to how he's acted.

 

[OCGuy]

The European nations still have armed forces. Defense expenditures by Germany, UK, France, and Italy alone are about 2.5 times what Russia spends.

China is flexing it's regional muscle, nothing more.

If Obama said nothing the entire GOP would be condemning him for not saying anything. I really don't see much in the way of alternatives to how he's acted.

Your lack of understanding of the complete dismantling of the UK armed forces that is currently happening, Germany's warm ties with Russia, and how NATO member States' weaknesses were exposed during the Libya campaign, is shaping your opinion.

 

[K1052]

Your lack of understanding of the complete dismantling of the UK armed forces that is currently happening, Germany's warm ties with Russia, and how NATO member States' weaknesses were exposed during the Libya campaign, is shaping your opinion.

I don't even understand what point you are trying to make with this. The #1 NATO mission since the inception of the alliance is the defense of member nations against Soviet (now Russian) aggression. I'm going to need some proof that they are somehow deficient in planning for such a scenario.

Europe has naturally decreased defense spending since the fall of the Soviet Union and the US has always played the largest overall role in NATO. Neither of these things are a shock or appreciably affect the ability of the alliance to respond to it's primary mission considering the relatively poor overall state of the Russian military.

 

[Fern]

If the NATO countries, excepting the USA, couldn't muster enough rockets/ammo to handle the relatively light Libyan mission it's difficult to see how they could defend against Russia.

Fern

 

[K1052]

If the NATO countries, excepting the USA, couldn't muster enough rockets/ammo to handle the relatively light Libyan mission it's difficult to see how they could defend against Russia.

Fern

Other NATO nations that did not take active roles in Libya had ample supply. Germany stands out in my memory...they resupplied the others. IIRC this was largely limited to air dropped precision guided munitions. A land invasion of NATO by Russia would bring a ton of other stuff into play.

 

[Jhhnn]

Heh. The pissing & moaning from the usual haters is epic.

When Faux News reports that Russia is reportedly changing her stance, what does that mean?

It means there's a whole lot of un-sourced speculation with an agenda....

Crimea? All over but the shouting. It was all over before the Neocon media manipulators fluffed it up for their own purposes, because neither we nor the Europeans are stupid enough to take any action to the contrary. Crimeans get the safety of the Russian Federation, and Ukrainians get to deal with mobs in the streets in Kiev. Which is where it all started, anyway.

You never know, but I doubt that even the proto fascists in the Ukrainian govt are dumb enough to start shooting. How'd it come to this? Because Ukrainian ultra-nationalists were begging for it, and because in yo' face stupid doesn't impress Putin.

TR acted the same way about Panama, and there wasn't a fucking thing anybody could do about that, either. Which is not to even mention other more recent interventions in Latin America.