Rumors of RIMs death have been greatly exaggerated

[Deeko]

RIM posts impressive second quarter, expects even better third quarter
By Chris Ziegler posted Sep 17th 2010 12:19PM Coming off some negative press in the hands of the Torch, RIM would just like to remind everyone that it's still selling a crap ton of BlackBerrys... and it's got the cash to prove it. The company's second-quarter results are out, showing revenue growth of 31 percent year-over-year and shipment growth of 45 percent over the same period -- up to 12.1 million, meaning the company has now shipped a grand total of around 115 million devices bearing the BlackBerry label. Of those 12.1 million shipments, about 4.5 million accounted for new account activations, meaning that the company isn't simply keeping existing customers in the fold with new hardware -- it's still managing to sell noobs on the platform, too (or at the very least, there are still companies out there forcing BlackBerrys into new employees' pockets). Net income was up a tick against the prior quarter, though a stock repurchase of around $1.5 billion means that RIM finished out Q2 with significantly less cash on hand than it had in Q1, around $2.03 billion at the moment. The company's forecasting even better third quarter numbers, too, with somewhere between 5 and 5.4 million new account activations and EPS up another 16 to 24 cents. High hopes for the Curve 3G and BlackBerry 6 upgrades, perhaps?

http://mobile.engadget.com/2010/09/...e-second-quarter-expects-even-better-third-q/

Guess Blackberry isn't as terrible as some posters think.

 

[BlahBlahYouToo]

yay, it staved off disaster for 1 measly quarter. expect the same for Q3 with the release of their flagship phone.

can it sustain this for the next couple of years with lackluster products?

 

[Spicedaddy]

Motorola went 10 years with crappy products, and they're still alive...

 

[Deeko]

yay, it staved off disaster for 1 measly quarter. expect the same for Q3 with the release of their flagship phone.

can it sustain this for the next couple of years with lackluster products?

"starved off disaster?"

Did you read it? They did great.

 

[AstroManLuca]

The problem is that everyone at forums looks at market share numbers and market share numbers alone. That makes Android look great since their sales are accelerating like crazy. For companies like RIM and Apple, modest sales increases from one quarter to the next show up as market share decreases since the size of the market itself is constantly growing.

 

[preslove]

The problem is that everyone at forums looks at market share numbers and market share numbers alone. That makes Android look great since their sales are accelerating like crazy. For companies like RIM and Apple, modest sales increases from one quarter to the next show up as market share decreases since the size of the market itself is constantly growing.

This, this, this.

I still think, though, that LONG term (thinking several years ahead, instead of quarters), RIM should consider focusing on hardware, adopting Android or WP7, and then adding a really advanced messaging layer on top.

 

[ew915]

If they are in so good shape they would issue more shares instead of buying treasury. To me is that they want to hold up their shares for the storm to come.

 

[MrX8503]

This, this, this.

I still think, though, that LONG term (thinking several years ahead, instead of quarters), RIM should consider focusing on hardware, adopting Android or WP7, and then adding a really advanced messaging layer on top.

I don't think RIM would ever adopt Android. They're just gonna try to innovate their current OS.

 

[Fear No Evil]

People love glorified pagers.. more power to them I guess..

 

[Looney]

People love glorified pagers.. more power to them I guess..

Well ya, if all you do for a living is flip burgers, then you don't need something like a BB.

 

[DivideBYZero]

Beat me to it, Deeko. Also note that the majority of growth has been in the consumer sector, too.

And for those who complain about the OS, you forgot about QNX...

RIM are very much a force to be reckoned with, and I will still state with utter certainty that both Android and iOS are not ready for Enterprise. So if even with mediocre products they move into consumer, just wait till they get their offerings in order.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Or, to look at it another way, they gained less new subscribers than they expected, despite nearly giving their phones away and the 2 for 1 deals on virtually every carrier.

showing revenue growth of 31 percent year-over-year and shipment growth of 45 percent over the same period

Anyone do basic math and make some assumptions with that data? It means they sold more units with a lowere per unit profit, and generated less $ through the subsidized kickbacks from the carriers.

Rim is under tremendous pressure to do well, and don't think for a minute they aren't looking at what they have to report to their investors every quarter.

The analysts aren't changing their projections for RIM, and I agree with them. They've had years to make their place in the market, Android hasn't been out on a widely sold phone for even a year yet.

A quick look at the prices of subsidized BB's shows Verizon & TMobile giving them away with a 2 year contract.

RIM stock has taken a 30% hit this year, that's not a good sign. And in the cell phone market, yesterday doesn't count, tomorrow does.

What compelling product is BB bringing out for Christmas? Nothing.

 

[heymrdj]

I still friggin love a blackberry for productivity. Neither the iphone, or DroidX, or Touch Pro, have offered me the smooth non-lockup experience shooting off dozens of emails or hundreds of texts, and repeated phone calls as a black berry device. Depending on their offereings of about March to June next year on Verizon, I may be jumping the Android/WM6.5 ships to the BB ship.

 

[foghorn67]

Or, to look at it another way, they gained less new subscribers than they expected, despite nearly giving their phones away and the 2 for 1 deals on virtually every carrier.



Anyone do basic math and make some assumptions with that data? It means they sold more units with a lowere per unit profit, and generated less $ through the subsidized kickbacks from the carriers.

Rim is under tremendous pressure to do well, and don't think for a minute they aren't looking at what they have to report to their investors every quarter.

The analysts aren't changing their projections for RIM, and I agree with them. They've had years to make their place in the market, Android hasn't been out on a widely sold phone for even a year yet.

A quick look at the prices of subsidized BB's shows Verizon & TMobile giving them away with a 2 year contract.

RIM stock has taken a 30% hit this year, that's not a good sign. And in the cell phone market, yesterday doesn't count, tomorrow does.

What compelling product is BB bringing out for Christmas? Nothing.

They have been in the black for a long time, except when they had to pay dividends and an insurance payout.

 

[gsaldivar]

http://mobile.engadget.com/2010/09/...e-second-quarter-expects-even-better-third-q/

Guess Blackberry isn't as terrible as some posters think.

Who is saying that RIM is terrible? Most of the posts I've seen are discussing changes in market share and future outlook; specifically the decline of the BB and iPhone platforms in the wake of Android.

RIM's revenue growth simply means they are squeezing more lemonade out of fewer lemons. Their market share is taking a nosedive, they are bleeding long term customers and becoming more dependent on newer ones.

How long is that type of "growth" sustainable?

 

[DivideBYZero]

Or, to look at it another way, they gained less new subscribers than they expected, despite nearly giving their phones away and the 2 for 1 deals on virtually every carrier.



Anyone do basic math and make some assumptions with that data? It means they sold more units with a lowere per unit profit, and generated less $ through the subsidized kickbacks from the carriers.

Rim is under tremendous pressure to do well, and don't think for a minute they aren't looking at what they have to report to their investors every quarter.

The analysts aren't changing their projections for RIM, and I agree with them. They've had years to make their place in the market, Android hasn't been out on a widely sold phone for even a year yet.

A quick look at the prices of subsidized BB's shows Verizon & TMobile giving them away with a 2 year contract.

RIM stock has taken a 30% hit this year, that's not a good sign. And in the cell phone market, yesterday doesn't count, tomorrow does.

What compelling product is BB bringing out for Christmas? Nothing.

You can spin it that way if you want, but you also have to consider:

- 76% increase in EPS YoY.
- gross magin of 42%

Share owners make on EPS.

 

[Deeko]

Who is saying that RIM is terrible? Most of the posts I've seen are discussing changes in market share and future outlook; specifically the decline of the BB and iPhone platforms in the wake of Android.

RIM's revenue growth simply means they are squeezing more lemonade out of fewer lemons. Their market share is taking a nosedive, they are bleeding long term customers and becoming more dependent on newer ones.

How long is that type of "growth" sustainable?

If you don't think people on Anandtech call RIM terrible, you aren't reading very closely.

Also, if you don't think this type of "growth" is sustainable, uhm...I don't know what to tell you. They are still making a good profit, they are still gaining *new* customers, not just retaining old ones. The company is doing very well, no matter how much nerds want to hate them.

 

[gsaldivar]

If you don't think people on Anandtech call RIM terrible, you aren't reading very closely.

Also, if you don't think this type of "growth" is sustainable, uhm...I don't know what to tell you. They are still making a good profit, they are still gaining *new* customers, not just retaining old ones. The company is doing very well, no matter how much nerds want to hate them.

Don't get me wrong - I love RIM and the Blackberry. I also loved the old PalmOS based Treos. It's not about "hate", it's about being objective and calling it as I see it. I use all kinds of phones, and hate to play favorites - in my opinion none are perfect, each has a flaw.

The issue with RIM is not that they aren't making money, or that they aren't doing very well selling lots of phones...

The concern is that the market today is very different than it was two years ago. There is a fundamental shift taking place and all manufacturers and carriers are scrambling like crazy to adapt. All except for RIM...

To put it plainly: RIM was poorly positioned in the first place to compete against the iPhone and Android. Sure, they have great email and messaging and dominate the enterprise - nobody is arguing that. But it does little to help them adapt to their competition. RIM remains positioned for weaker growth going forward. That's not just my opinion, unless you've been living in a cave for the last few months - investors and analysts are saying the same thing across the board.

They are increasingly losing long term customers and becoming more dependent on new subscribers. By itself not such a big deal were it not for the fact that their total market share is also declining. Their entire line of phones is aging, market reaction to the Torch and OS refresh has been tepid at best, and they have nothing revolutionary in the pipeline for the holiday season...

Revenue growth? Yes. It's more lemonade from fewer lemons.

 

[MrX8503]

As I've always said their bread n butter is messaging and enterprise. My supervisor has a BB for work and a Droid for personal.

Me personally I don't really care for BB devices as I don't need a heavy messaging phone. RIM has produced the same looking phones with similar hardware for years. Their lineup is aging and their latest attempt, the torch, was just released even though it's hardware sounds like a 2008 phone spec sheet.

I think they'll be around still for a good while as there are many people who still need them. I think this is where RIM is milking their customers. They know enterprise needs them so they haven't worked very hard at innovating.