Question RTX 4000/RX 7000 price speculation thread

[moonbogg]

My prediction: The entire generation will be 2-3X msrp on ebay and at retailers. RTX 3000 series will be sold along side the 4000 series because only a few will be buying RTX 4000 series who are willing to pay $1500 for what should be a $300 RTX 4060. Not enough supply to meet demand by a long shot, pricing will be through the Oort cloud. PC gaming is dead. Your thoughts?

 

[Mopetar]

I think you both make the mistake that people will stop gaming if they can't upgrade their GPU as regularly as you both might. I'm still stuck on Polaris (I can use the much beefier GPU in my M1 Max MBP if the game supports it) since I won't pay the ridiculous prices that most cards are going for right now. $300 would barely even get me an upgrade.

Yet I still game as much as I ever did. If I'm playing something new, I just turn down the settings to get an acceptable frame rate. Once the prices come down I'll throw a new build together.

 

[jpiniero]

I think you both make the mistake that people will stop gaming if they can't upgrade their GPU as regularly as you both might. I'm still stuck on Polaris (I can use the much beefier GPU in my M1 Max MBP if the game supports it) since I won't pay the ridiculous prices that most cards are going for right now. $300 would barely even get me an upgrade.

Yet I still game as much as I ever did. If I'm playing something new, I just turn down the settings to get an acceptable frame rate. Once the prices come down I'll throw a new build together.

A lot of that is simply because the AAA developers are still making games intended for the previous gen consoles.

Starfield will be interesting.

 

[Dannar26]

That might be tough with Ada or the Navi Refresh. Right now you aren't even getting 5700 XT performance for $400. AD106 might be able to deliver on performance but I don't know what they will charge.

And don't I know it...

I feel like by the time I find something to put in my 3600x rig, it's going to be pretty outdated.

I think you both make the mistake that people will stop gaming if they can't upgrade their GPU as regularly as you both might. I'm still stuck on Polaris (I can use the much beefier GPU in my M1 Max MBP if the game supports it) since I won't pay the ridiculous prices that most cards are going for right now. $300 would barely even get me an upgrade.

Yet I still game as much as I ever did. If I'm playing something new, I just turn down the settings to get an acceptable frame rate. Once the prices come down I'll throw a new build together.

Oh don't get me wrong, I'm not stopping my gaming. I really like eye-candy in terms of graphics, despite the fact that I play potato games. It's nice being able to run current-gen games/features. Being able to play Minecraft with Ray-Traced textures has been a real treat, though Java MC with the compatibility shader pack was even better.

If everybody was like myself, and just holding out for meaningful price/performance, then I feel like we wouldn't be here. I don't understand people that will plop down 2k for a $700 graphics card. Hell, people practically do this when it comes to AMD vs Nvidia.

My son is on Polaris. rx580 8GB. That damn GPU has been such a great value over the years. I wish there were a modern equivalent.

 

[Aapje]

I'm with Moonbogg here. How is this nonsense being sustained? Who is willing? Are there really *that* many gamers out there with huge disposable incomes? I thought everybody lost their jobs during covid?

In my country job loss is less than during regular times, because of all the government subsidies and spending, that result in fewer businesses going bankrupt than ever.

People saved a lot of money and time by not doing all kinds of outdoor activities, like eating out, going to festivals, etc. They can spend all that money and time on other things, like gaming.

There is a reason why GPU prices traditionally go down in the summer, when people do a lot more of those outdoor activities. Covid was basically the opposite of that, but far more potent.

 

[jpiniero]

My son is on Polaris. rx580 8GB. That damn GPU has been such a great value over the years. I wish there were a modern equivalent.

AMD at best didn't make much off of Polaris and Vega only got released because of a mining uptick. Those days are over.

 

[moonbogg]

Companies send out a tweet about supply chain issues and then instantly raise prices through the roof. There are always legitimate examples, but mostly it's a load of crap and most people use it as an opportunity to simply jack up prices. Many of these "supply chain" complainers also boast of record profits at the same time. If Nvidia doesn't LOWER prices back to a sane level this gen then I'm not buying anything. Easy choice for me. An 80 class should be $700 max, 70 class $400 max, and 60 class $300 max. If that's too low and absolutely STUPID of me to suggest, then for me, I have decided that these products no longer make sense economically and shouldn't exist anymore. They cost too much for the nature of what they are. But people keep buying $2200 gaming GPUs, so there's always that.
If Nvidia refused to accept credit cards for the first week during the 4000 series launch, they'd sell less than 10% of whatever they are currently predicting. If these young, impulsive kids had to hand over $1500 in cash for an RTX 4080, less than 1 in 10 would still buy one, and that's being generous.

 

[Dannar26]

In my country job loss is less than during regular times, because of all the government subsidies and spending, that result in fewer businesses going bankrupt than ever.

People saved a lot of money and time by not doing all kinds of outdoor activities, like eating out, going to festivals, etc. They can spend all that money and time on other things, like gaming.

There is a reason why GPU prices traditionally go down in the summer, when people do a lot more of those outdoor activities. Covid was basically the opposite of that, but far more potent.

I was being generous about it; I wasn't really impacted in a financial way. But the sum total of the economy isn't me, nor is it people like me. If large portions of the population lost money, then who keeps paying $2500 for 2080 founder's edition cards off e-bay?

AMD at best didn't make much off of Polaris and Vega only got released because of a mining uptick. Those days are over.

It's probably a vain hope anymore, but I would hope for a repeat of the launch pricing of the 30 series. It seemed like a reasonable backpedal from the nonsense prices of the 20 series.

I will say it as often as I can...I got his card in 2019 (Holiday time frame) for $140. That's also when I got my 5700xt and a cheap 570. rx580 8bg = $140, rx570 4gb = $100, the most expensive AiB 5700xt + "free" router + two "free" games = $400. I don't think holiday 2019 was special. You could often buy cards well below MSRP if you just simply waited a few months after release hype died down.

I want that world back.

Companies send out a tweet about supply chain issues and then instantly raise prices through the roof. There are always legitimate examples, but mostly it's a load of crap and most people use it as an opportunity to simply jack up prices. Many of these "supply chain" complainers also boast of record profits at the same time. If Nvidia doesn't LOWER prices back to a sane level this gen then I'm not buying anything. Easy choice for me. An 80 class should be $700 max, 70 class $400 max, and 60 class $300 max. If that's too low and absolutely STUPID of me to suggest, then for me, I have decided that these products no longer make sense economically and shouldn't exist anymore. They cost too much for the nature of what they are. But people keep buying $2200 gaming GPUs, so there's always that.
If Nvidia refused to accept credit cards for the first week during the 4000 series launch, they'd sell less than 10% of whatever they are currently predicting. If these young, impulsive kids had to hand over $1500 in cash for an RTX 4080, less than 1 in 10 would still buy one, and that's being generous.

I'm so tired of supply chain this, supply chain that. It isn't just video cards. It's seemingly everything. It cost a fortune repairing my deck because I guess covid killed off everything and everyone having to do with producing lumber. I hope nobody here needs a car, because you apparently can't find those either.

I'm tired of the excuses...it's greed at this point. Record profits, but you can't pay to get your crap to stores on time? Yeah, right.

 

[Glo.]

I'm tired of the excuses...it's greed at this point. Record profits, but you can't pay to get your crap to stores on time? Yeah, right.

It would be true IF car factories would not be closing due to component shortages. And yes, only semiconductor based car parts are in shortage.

You cannot earn profits if you cannot deliver orders to your customers.

If you go and order your car today, in a factory, the CLOSEST delivery time in my country for a Toyota or VW/Skoda car is 2024.

 

[Frenetic Pony]

Economics 101: When demand greatly exceeds supply, those with the supply can charge more than they normally could. Thus profits will increase.

Now this could be because: collusion and conspiracy. It's happened before with memory around, what mid to late 2000's? Or because supply is constrained by other factors. Now either the entire chip industry, multiple competitors across high end chips and car manufacturing and otherwise, dozens upon dozens of companies, have all gotten together all at once to collude and artificially limit supply. Or it's just because supply of various things is low versus demand and it takes a long, long time for supply to catch up.

Now here's an easy way to weed the truth out of most situations: Which scenario sounds easier to pull off? Because all those billions and billions of people in the world aren't a whole lot different from you, in that damn would they rather choose the much easier route given two different choices.

 

[Dannar26]

I'm not unaware of the nature of economics, nor am I crying "chem trails" here. I think the nature of most people is to maximize their success. Getting more profit for little effort is literally the mission statement of any company ever. There doesn't need to be collusion -- I think companies are just milking the situation for all its worth.

We the consumers have taught GPU manufacturers the worst lesson possible: We will pay hand over fist for your products. And not even your best products either...just literally anything you vomit out to us. What company is going to go back to charging what once was "normal?"

An 80 class should be $700 max, 70 class $400 max, and 60 class $300 max. If that's too low and absolutely STUPID of me to suggest, then for me, I have decided that these products no longer make sense economically and shouldn't exist anymore. They cost too much for the nature of what they are. But people keep buying $2200 gaming GPUs, so there's always that.

I feel the same way. I guess it's time to get out my cane and start yelling at clouds.

 

[moonbogg]

I feel the same way. I guess it's time to get out my cane and start yelling at clouds.

And so It has come to this. I'm in.

 

[maddie]

It would be true IF car factories would not be closing due to component shortages. And yes, only semiconductor based car parts are in shortage.

You cannot earn profits if you cannot deliver orders to your customers.

If you go and order your car today, in a factory, the CLOSEST delivery time in my country for a Toyota or VW/Skoda car is 2024.

If OK, where are you?

 

[Glo.]

If OK, where are you?

European Union country. And one in which cars are actually manufactured.

 

[jpiniero]

It's probably a vain hope anymore, but I would hope for a repeat of the launch pricing of the 30 series. It seemed like a reasonable backpedal from the nonsense prices of the 20 series.

The problem with Turing wasn't the prices but that the performance wasn't much better.

People are going to complain regardless but if the "4080" ends up being $1199 that looks bad compared to the 3080's MSRP but the current retail prices are above that, soo.....

 

[Aapje]

People are going to complain regardless but if the "4080" ends up being $1199 that looks bad compared to the 3080's MSRP but the current retail prices are above that, soo.....

That's not true, as you can get the upgraded 12 GB version for $1050 right now from badegg.

 

[jpiniero]

That's not true, as you can get the upgraded 12 GB version for $1050 right now from badegg.

Fair enough. That's still of course way higher than the theoretical MSRP. And we have no idea what prices will be like come September.

If they do keep the 4080 name and it ends up being a slight cut of AD104, that wouldn't be that out of place historically.

 

[Glo.]

That's not true, as you can get the upgraded 12 GB version for $1050 right now from badegg.

Nvidia will not be able to charge uber premium for their GPUs because AMD is going to be faster, and more efficient, in most cases.

 

[jpiniero]

Nvidia will not be able to charge uber premium for their GPUs because AMD is going to be faster, and more efficient, in most cases.

Not unless AMD charges uber uber premium. Even if AMD was thinking of some sort of cheap pricing strategy, the TSMC price hikes took care of that.

 

[Aapje]

Fair enough. That's still of course way higher than the theoretical MSRP. And we have no idea what prices will be like come September.

If they do keep the 4080 name and it ends up being a slight cut of AD104, that wouldn't be that out of place historically.

They still need a product to put all their faulty AD102's in. For the 20's series, they put the broken TU102's into the 2080 Ti, while putting the near perfect TU104's into the 2080. I can see them doing that, launching first with the 4080 and 4080 Ti, on AD104 and AD102 respectively. With the rumored big boost in performance (for both Nvidia and AMD, but more so for AMD), an AD104 4080 would probably be a good enough offering if not priced too high. Keeping the price lower would be good marketing anyway, making many people happy (or less sad).

Note that the 20's series Titan was essentially what the 3090 is now (nearly full top tier die with 24 GB), yet the Titan was marketed as a workstation card and the 3090 as a gamer card, despite it making more sense as a workstation card in most cases. I don't see them going back to marketing their halo product to workstations due to how well AMD is expected to do.

Ultimately, names are marketing and that is most important to the least knowledgeable people. The more knowledgeable people will just look at price/performance and judge it on that.

 

[Glo.]

Not unless AMD charges uber uber premium. Even if AMD was thinking of some sort of cheap pricing strategy, the TSMC price hikes took care of that.

I will put exactly what I mean: I don't expect that specific SKU tiers from Nvidia will go up in prices.

AMD's on the other hand - will. Partially.

Nvidia is the loser here, and there is absolutely no reason for them to charge premium.

When Battlemage releases the order in performance hierarchy should be this: 1) AMD, 2) Intel, 3) Nvidia.

Charging the most for without question worst products available will be hard to justify, even for Nvidia's brand.

 

[jpiniero]

I will put exactly what I mean: I don't expect that specific SKU tiers from Nvidia will go up in prices.

AMD's on the other hand - will. Partially.

Nvidia is the loser here, and there is absolutely no reason for them to charge premium.

When Battlemage releases the order in performance hierarchy should be this: 1) AMD, 2) Intel, 3) Nvidia.

Charging the most for without question worst products available will be hard to justify, even for Nvidia's brand.

Intel?? Now you're just going crazy train.

 

[Glo.]

Intel?? Now you're just going crazy train.

What makes you believe so?

 

[Saylick]

When Battlemage releases the order in performance hierarchy should be this: 1) AMD, 2) Intel, 3) Nvidia.

Wait, what...

*looks at date, confirms that it isn't April 1st*

... are you smoking?

Intel having a GPU that is more performant than Nvidia when Battlemage releases? Please tell me you are joking. I highly doubt that Intel will catch up to Nvidia in just two generations. It's going to take AMD three generations of RDNA just to take the crown (at least that's what rumors suggest), so why would it take even less for Intel?

 

[jpiniero]

What makes you believe so?

If Intel was smart, they would give up. They are not smart. There might be an angle where there might be a niche for them if it was fabbed on their own nodes but then they would be even less competitive.

AMD being faster I can believe. But it's coming at a very high cost, something AMD will gladly pay. There's plenty of evidence that gamers will pay the prices.

 

[xpea]

Nvidia will not be able to charge uber premium for their GPUs because AMD is going to be faster, and more efficient, in most cases.

I don't believe it one second. Except for the halo AD102 SKU that will push everything to 11 to get the crown vs Navi31 (or close to it), Ada will be more efficient across the range. Fact: Monolith always win in efficiency if everything else is equal. ALWAYS.