Question RTX 4000/RX 7000 price speculation thread

[moonbogg]

My prediction: The entire generation will be 2-3X msrp on ebay and at retailers. RTX 3000 series will be sold along side the 4000 series because only a few will be buying RTX 4000 series who are willing to pay $1500 for what should be a $300 RTX 4060. Not enough supply to meet demand by a long shot, pricing will be through the Oort cloud. PC gaming is dead. Your thoughts?

 

[jpiniero]

So is anyone expecting improvement in the performance/$ compared to current generation?

At $1000+ very much yes. Below that not so much.

 

[biostud]

At $1000+ very much yes. Below that not so much.

That is because current gen +$1000 cards are way overpriced :/

 

[Aapje]

So is anyone expecting improvement in the performance/$ compared to current generation?

Compared to what? MSRP, top prices, average prices, min prices with real inventory, future 30 series prices?

 

[jpiniero]

Compared to what? MSRP, top prices, average prices, min prices with real inventory, future 30 series prices?

I'm specifically talking about MSRP. Like even now you would have a hard time getting a 3080 for $699. Best Buy has been selling some other Ampere models for MSRP recently but I'm not sure if you need their scalper plan to be eligible.

 

[amenx]

I'm specifically talking about MSRP. Like even now you would have a hard time getting a 3080 for $699. Best Buy has been selling some other Ampere models for MSRP recently but I'm not sure if you need their scalper plan to be eligible.

Theres still have a few months before arrival of new gen cards to allow AIBs to gradually reduce inventories without sharp price drops just yet. Bet in another month or two prices will be a lot lower than now.

 

[biostud]

Compared to what? MSRP, top prices, average prices, min prices with real inventory, future 30 series prices?

All of them

I guess that is a fair point, I guess I'm just wondering if we are going to expect cards that can actually be considered good value compared to current gen.

 

[Aapje]

All of them

I guess that is a fair point, I guess I'm just wondering if we are going to expect cards that can actually be considered good value compared to current gen.

I forget to distinguish between the old and new MSRPs too. The pricing of these cards has been so unstable that you can't really declare a specific price/performance.

My expectation is that at least AMD can provide very good value cards. Whether they will depends on market conditions.

 

[moonbogg]

So is anyone expecting improvement in the performance/$ compared to current generation?

Not for the vast majority of gamers. I expect that most of us would be better off (by a lot) just buying a used 3000 series after prices really bottom out. Based on rumors, leaks, and other stuff, I expect the 4070 to have 10GB of ram and basically perform like a 3080 for the price of a 3080. It's just going to be another price hiked generation with nothing exciting to offer unless you're willing to pay $1000+.

 

[Ajay]

Not for the vast majority of gamers. I expect that most of us would be better off (by a lot) just buying a used 3000 series after prices really bottom out. Based on rumors, leaks, and other stuff, I expect the 4070 to have 10GB of ram and basically perform like a 3080 for the price of a 3080. It's just going to be another price hiked generation with nothing exciting to offer unless you're willing to pay $1000+.

That is so weird. Can't understand why NV just wouldn't use a 184b memory interface and go with 12GB. Also, if the 4070 is pretty much on par with the 3080 with a generational jump in uArch and process - then NV is being pretty lame. IMHO.

 

[moonbogg]

That is so weird. Can't understand why NV just wouldn't use a 184b memory interface and go with 12GB. Also, if the 4070 is pretty much on par with the 3080 with a generational jump in uArch and process - then NV is being pretty lame. IMHO.

Well that 4070 would normally be a 4060 for $300, but charging twice the price and calling it a 4070 is better for them.

 

[maddie]

That is so weird. Can't understand why NV just wouldn't use a 184b memory interface and go with 12GB. Also, if the 4070 is pretty much on par with the 3080 with a generational jump in uArch and process - then NV is being pretty lame. IMHO.

Extreme hyperbole is the name of the game. Who can out-outrageous whom.

 

[aigomorla]

NVIDIA Wants To Cut Down 5nm Wafer Orders For Next-Gen GeForce RTX 40 Series Due To Crypto Flood Resulting In Lower Demand, Alleges Report

NVIDIA has reportedly cut down its TSMC 5nm wafer orders for next-gen GeForce RTX 40 series due to a declining PC market & crypto GPU flood.

wccftech.com

Sigh... so we will be forced to pay at the new price bracket?
*bangs head on desk*

Do i need to fight against scalpers and hardcore miners for the 40 series too, because they will not be enough in production?

 

[moonbogg]

Extreme hyperbole is the name of the game. Who can out-outrageous whom.

Hyperbole isn't hyperbole when Nvidia is trying to normalize $2000+ gaming cards and starts charging $1000 for the 80-class. There's no place for hyperbole when the situation is already right in the middle of crazy town. I'm preparing myself to be utterly confused when Nvidia offers price hikes + excuses then people say OK and open their wallets, lol. The truth of the situation is far more insane than anything that could be said in a tech forum.

 

[Stuka87]

NVIDIA Wants To Cut Down 5nm Wafer Orders For Next-Gen GeForce RTX 40 Series Due To Crypto Flood Resulting In Lower Demand, Alleges Report

NVIDIA has reportedly cut down its TSMC 5nm wafer orders for next-gen GeForce RTX 40 series due to a declining PC market & crypto GPU flood.

wccftech.com

Sigh... so we will be forced to pay at the new price bracket?
*bangs head on desk*

Do i need to fight against scalpers and hardcore miners for the 40 series too, because they will not be enough in production?

nVidia isn't the only one making GPUs. If they don't want to be competitive on price, thats their loss.

 

[swilli89]

I expect fairly strong perf/$ gains this gen. Nvidia is making a massive leap, basically two node jump and crypto demand will be at a multi year low.

If NVIDIA is slashing orders from tsmc we can also hope that pricing will be more aggressive.

NVIDIA reportedly wants to cut TSMC orders for next-gen RTX 40 GPUs 5nm wafers amid lower demand - VideoCardz.com

TSMC customers want to lower their silicon orders The consumer electronics market is slowing down rapidly. The interest in new TVs, mobile phones and PCS and has declined as quickly as pandemic has ‘ended’ and inflation struck global markets. Both AMD and NVIDIA are revising their TSMC orders...

videocardz.com

I can see 3080 performance for $400-500 off the shelf readily available.

 

[aigomorla]

I expect fairly strong perf/$ gains this gen. Nvidia is making a massive leap, basically two node jump and crypto demand will be at a multi year low.

If NVIDIA is slashing orders from tsmc we can also hope that pricing will be more aggressive.

I can see 3080 performance for $400-500 off the shelf readily available.

thats not how supply and demand works.... lol.... low supply means higher price.
You make something less, people scalp it, and then charge more for it.

Here is my prediction...

4070 -> 699
4070ti -> 750
4080 -> 899
4080ti -> 999
4090 -> 1100
4090ti ->1300

I am already preping to drop 1100-1300 on the 4090 to 4090ti depending on what i feel like in the mood.
If i can get away with paying less then 4 figures, then id consider myself lucky.

 

[maddie]

Hyperbole isn't hyperbole when Nvidia is trying to normalize $2000+ gaming cards and starts charging $1000 for the 80-class. There's no place for hyperbole when the situation is already right in the middle of crazy town. I'm preparing myself to be utterly confused when Nvidia offers price hikes + excuses then people say OK and open their wallets, lol. The truth of the situation is far more insane than anything that could be said in a tech forum.

Nvidia is looking at a major fall in sales, a commitment to pay TSMC billions for supply that is turning out excessive. Jensen might want to squeeze more out of us, but he must be losing hair over the falling share price, falling demand and soon to be falling margins, and it's beyond his ability to fix. You really think that he waves his magic wand and buyers appear, when millions will soon be losing their jobs, loosing the ability to rent, drive as much, eat as well as before. Maybe for some & probably most here, but not on the wider world where the real sales happen. The ordinary man & woman, not the ultra enthusiast. You say open their wallets. What appears unthinkable is that a lot of people will, in a few months, not have wallets, figuratively of course.. Demand destruction is here for all companies.

Companies are slashing orders not to sell less for more but because they see problems in selling generally. They need sales volumes for overhead fixed expenses.

What is happening is beyond Crypto, beyond the US & Europe. Read up on what Zoltan Pozsarfor example has been writing on inside & outside money. We are living through an epochal moment in history and anyone with clear eyes are amazed at the transformation visible all around. Most folks think this is all normal & will soon revert to how it has been, at least for the past decades. No, this time really is different, the world has fundamentally changed.

 

[amenx]

Re Nvidia wanting to cut 5nm orders, if you read the articles posted, thy are already locked into contracts with TSMC who is unwilling to accept beyond delaying shipments for a quarter. Nvidia paid hefty sums ($ billions) to TSMC for a larger slice of the 5nm pie to avoid the sort of shortages they encountered with Ampere. Now with weakening markets + collapse off crypto, its backfired badly for them.

Despite increased manufacturing costs, inflation, I see little choice for Nvidia than to bite the bullet with RTX 4000 pricing to move the chip orders they are locked into.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Despite increased manufacturing costs, inflation, I see little choice for Nvidia than to bite the bullet with RTX 4000 pricing to move the chip orders they are locked into.

What's bad for them might be really good for us, in the short term. We could have so much 4000 series available that buying a 3000 series card seems unappealing. But Nvidia and especially Jensen accepting defeat would be something unexpected.

 

[swilli89]

Re Nvidia wanting to cut 5nm orders, if you read the articles posted, thy are already locked into contracts with TSMC who is unwilling to accept beyond delaying shipments for a quarter. Nvidia paid hefty sums ($ billions) to TSMC for a larger slice of the 5nm pie to avoid the sort of shortages they encountered with Ampere. Now with weakening markets + collapse off crypto, its backfired badly for them.

Despite increased manufacturing costs, inflation, I see little choice for Nvidia than to bite the bullet with RTX 4000 pricing to move the chip orders they are locked into.

Yep. Exactly. I'm guessing 4070 will land $449-499 and will get near 3080 Ti.

 

[moonbogg]

Yep. Exactly. I'm guessing 4070 will land $449-499 and will get near 3080 Ti.

I'm guessing the 4070 will have 10GB of ram, perform like a 3080, basically cost as much as a 3080 ($700 AIB models), and people will take out that piece of plastic and BORROW money to get it. It will cost them $2000 before it's paid off and they do not care. Remember, a 3080, 3080Ti, 3090, and 3090Ti all basically perform the same in practical terms. They aren't nearly as far apart as their prices would usually suggest. So a 4070 "getting near" a 3080Ti is basically 3080 performance. MSRP will probably be $600 with AIB models costing more, so 3080 pricing.

 

[Aapje]

thats not how supply and demand works.... lol.... low supply means higher price.

There is a big difference between reduced supply due to production problems or reduced supply because of a lack of demand. In the second case, the reduction is a sign of demand outstripping supply -> low prices.

 

[jpiniero]

Despite increased manufacturing costs, inflation, I see little choice for Nvidia than to bite the bullet with RTX 4000 pricing to move the chip orders they are locked into.

That won't be necessary. Cutting Ampere prices OTOH, might be.

 

[Golgatha]

Nah, it'll be more than that. 18% more SMs, 50% higher clock, More ROPS/TMUs/RT per SM, the additional INT32 cores...

50% higher clocks are needed when you reduce the memory bandwidth by 25-50% compared to the 3080 and 3080 Ti though. My prediction is It'll be slightly better at ray-tracing, but the improvement over a 3080 Ti won't be huge. Also, it'll cost about the same as a used 3080 Ti, have worse thermals, and use more power. A 3080 Ti will give "good enough" performance until the 5000 series is a thing to consider buying in 2-3 years.

 

[jpiniero]

50% higher clocks are needed when you reduce the memory bandwidth by 25-50% compared to the 3080 and 3080 Ti though. My prediction is It'll be slightly better at ray-tracing, but the improvement over a 3080 Ti won't be huge. Also, it'll cost about the same and a used 3080 Ti will be more cost effective, have better thermals, use less power, and give "good enough" performance until the 5000 series is a thing to consider buying.

They are greatly increasing the L2 size to help with the memory bandwidth.