Romney bounce over already?

[OneOfTheseDays]

http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-vs-romney-gallup-poll-oct-8-results-2012-10?utm_source=twbutton&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=politics

 

[xBiffx]

http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

October 8th Gallup poll shows Romney's lead virtually erased.

Good economic news on the unemployment front is likely the cause.

 

[Doppel]

http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

 

[Schmide]

I do wonder if unskewedpolls, if applied uniformly would re correct any change to Romney? The very nature of its process seems to be a differential equation that naturally moves towards equal sampling.

 

[mshan]

From tidbits I've read, main effect was some Romney supporters who perhaps were personally offended by 47% video have returned to the fold, with renewed enthusiasm.

Doesn't look like he pulled any Obama supporters to him, and likeability among independents for Obama actually went up.

Looks like it might be Ryan VP pick redux (http://election.princeton.edu/2012/08/15/ryan-is-a-game-changer-but-not-for-romney/); his polls were going into nosedive, he gambled and swung for fences, may gain temporary respite, but hard to tell if he did any long term good, or even hurt himself.

Princeton Election Consortium Meta-Margin was something was under 2% before 47% comment, so he hasn't even recovered from that totally.

Plus it seems like a lot of this early polling is rather intentionally disingenuous, to put it mildly.

I am actually more interested in whether renewed Republican enthusiasm sways chances of Democrats retaking control of the House (and saw comment on PEC suggesting that losing the House, where Republicans only have slight, say 10 seat advantage, might actually be best outcome, because then they are viewed as also being responsible for governing and actually getting things done. Working majority of non-Tea Party Democrats and Republicans who are ultimately pragmatic and can marginalize Tea Party might work out pretty well).

I say wait till end of week when full round of normal polls has taken place and see where dust settled.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

What matters isn't the bounce, but the coming debates. If Romney continues to best Obama then it will hurt the latter. If not and Obama dominates then the reverse is true. The bounce means little one way or the other.

 

[Nemesis 1]

October 8th Gallup poll shows Romney's lead virtually erased.

Good economic news on the unemployment front is likely the cause.

You mean lies about the state of the economy Helped him out .

 

[mshan]

http://behavioraleconomy.gallup.com/2012/10/time-to-replace-unemployment-rate.html

(Morningstar economist Bob Johnson has previously wondered whether the surprisingly weak August numbers and the slightly better than expected September numbers could in part be explained by college students with summer jobs going back to school earlier than current seasonal adjustment factor accounts for (apparently colleges are trying to complete fall semester by Thanksgiving break so students don't have to come back till next year (?). Seasonal adjustment factor may not have been changed to reflect change, so numbers undershot in August, but overshot in September). In reality, August's numbers were probably never as bad as they initially seemed, and September's numbers are slightly better than underlying reality.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/10/understanding-decline-in-participation.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29



Household Survey may be picking up Small Business Hiring earlier than Establishment Survey (larger corporations?): http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/unemployment-dips-stocks-rip-hiring-blip-154000158.html

 

[Nemesis 1]

What matters isn't the bounce, but the coming debates. If Romney continues to best Obama then it will hurt the latter. If not and Obama dominates then the reverse is true. The bounce means little one way or the other.

So far this election . I haven't herd one word about how anyone is going to fix anything . Obama can't use the a Change you can count on BS . Romney is keeping it a secret / LOL good god people wake up . You voted for change you got it . I didn't vote. But I will vote for obummer this round because he is the worst of the worst and I want America to fail under his leadership period. Socialist pig. One might ask why would you want that . Civil war . With obummer as president it will be more easy to target the enemy

 

[Kadarin]

So far this election . I haven't herd one word about how anyone is going to fix anything . Obama can't use the a Change you can count on BS . Romney is keeping it a secret / LOL good god people wake up . You voted for change you got it . I didn't vote. But I will vote for obummer this round because he is the worst of the worst and I want America to fail under his leadership period. Socialist pig. One might ask why would you want that . Civil war . With obummer as president it will be more easy to target the enemy

You crazy mofo.

 

[nehalem256]

Looks like a bubble to me

 

[Capt Caveman]

You crazy mofo.

He's a Ron Paul loon.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Massive snip.

What is happening to median income and how many jobs are like positions terms of income and benefits?

 

[Jhhnn]

Romney was right on top of his Arizona oceanfront pitch. It was really impressive, great salesmanship.

But, after awhile, the impact wears off... people start to think again... Arizona oceanfront? Is that what he said? Yeh, that's what he said alright.... Damn, it sounded too good to be true...

 

[monovillage]

Romney was right on top of his Arizona oceanfront pitch. It was really impressive, great salesmanship.

But, after awhile, the impact wears off... people start to think again... Arizona oceanfront? Is that what he said? Yeh, that's what he said alright.... Damn, it sounded too good to be true...

Not a bad lie, too bad he never said it, but everyone should be pretty used to your lies by now.

BTW, You do know about the Gulf of California rift zone don't you ? It's just a matter of time until Arizona is indeed on the Gulf/oceanfront. That's not even counting any sea level changes.

http://www.data.scec.org/NARS-Baja/NARS-Baja.pdf

 

[mshan]

Links I've seen that come to mind are (don't recall any links I've saved regarding median income):

1) consumer income up this year: http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2263109&highlight=bloomberg+article


2) wealth at a more macro level:

"A jump in the stock market and rising home prices are bringing Americans closer to regaining the wealth they lost in the recession.

U.S. household net worth dipped in the April-June quarter, according to a Federal Reserve report released Thursday. But gains in stock and home equity since the last quarter ended have likely raised total household wealth to within 5 percent of its peak before the Great Recession.

Millions of Americans still feeling the effects of the housing bust, or who don't own any stocks, haven't benefited as much."


http://www.cnbc.com/id/49105009

3) and FWIW: http://finance.yahoo.com/video/goldman-sees-p-2013-target-171500665.html & http://www.cnbc.com/id/49208910


4) Don't know if this somehow correlates with median income going down over time somehow:

http://www.pimco.com/EN/insights/pages/cult-figures.aspx (John Bogle appears slightly more bullish going forward (7% real rate of return in stocks): http://www.cnbc.com/id/49274230

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Links I've seen that come to mind are (don't recall any links I've saved regarding median income):

1) consumer income up this year: http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2263109&highlight=bloomberg+article


2) wealth at a more macro level:
3) and FWIW: http://finance.yahoo.com/video/goldman-sees-p-2013-target-171500665.html & http://www.cnbc.com/id/49208910


4) Don't know if this somehow correlates with median income going down over time somehow:

http://www.pimco.com/EN/insights/pages/cult-figures.aspx (John Bogle appears slightly more bullish going forward (7% real rate of return in stocks): http://www.cnbc.com/id/49274230

Thanks for posting the links. It seems that the last chart is about as good as we can get in determining what's happening in terms of where most people are heading as a group. A major problem as I see it is that many jobs are outsourced leaving what were once well paying jobs to be replaced by service industry positions which are notoriously lower in compensation than what was lost. What we need is a policy which makes it favorable to corporations to bring back outsourced jobs and infrastructure as well as an increase in boardroom accountability. I've posted the particulars elsewhere. I don't see much motivation for corporations which reward the board for moving jobs out to reverse their position.

 

[chucky2]

You crazy mofo.

I'm really having a tough time myself deciding to vote 3rd party, or, Bummer. If I vote Bummer, it'll be for the same reason as Nemisis. Sooner the country hits bottom, sooner we can hit reset.

 

[sportage]

What matters isn't the bounce, but the coming debates. If Romney continues to best Obama then it will hurt the latter. If not and Obama dominates then the reverse is true. The bounce means little one way or the other.

I think people have pretty much chosen sides.
A debate win might look like a huge plus at the time, but what matters in the end are policy issues and past statements on those important issues.

Mitt really tore himself a new one with that little gaff about the 47%.
Something he can try to, but can not fully escape.

People have short attention spans. Everything is like a ball game or some video game.
Who got the most hits in? Did one of them draw blood?
But in the end people remember. They settle down and come back down to earth.

Romney is extremely right wing. He is on the wrong side of social issues.
Romney has pissed off women. Pissed off Hispanics.
Those two groups alone will become Romney's defeat.
But we shall see what happen in a few weeks .....

 

[Jhhnn]

Not a bad lie, too bad he never said it, but everyone should be pretty used to your lies by now.

BTW, You do know about the Gulf of California rift zone don't you ? It's just a matter of time until Arizona is indeed on the Gulf/oceanfront. That's not even counting any sea level changes.

http://www.data.scec.org/NARS-Baja/NARS-Baja.pdf

"Arizona oceanfront" is a metaphor, but I'm pretty sure you've bought the metaphorical lots & are just waiting for the rift to work its magic over the next 50 million years or so...

If low taxes at the top create jobs, when do you suppose we'll see the results, given that those taxes have been at historical lows for a decade & more? Right after Bigfoot emerges from the woods for a press conference?

 

[dank69]

Not a bad lie, too bad he never said it, but everyone should be pretty used to your lies by now.

BTW, You do know about the Gulf of California rift zone don't you ? It's just a matter of time until Arizona is indeed on the Gulf/oceanfront. That's not even counting any sea level changes.

http://www.data.scec.org/NARS-Baja/NARS-Baja.pdf

"Arizona oceanfront" is a metaphor, but I'm pretty sure you've bought the metaphorical lots & are just waiting for the rift to work its magic over the next 50 million years or so...

If low taxes at the top create jobs, when do you suppose we'll see the results, given that those taxes have been at historical lows for a decade & more? Right after Bigfoot emerges from the woods for a press conference?

Mono is like the perfect metaphor for the republican base. "He didn't say what he said but I still believe he was right." Both deny and adopt at the same time.

 

[Matt1970]

4) Don't know if this somehow correlates with median income going down over time somehow:

1970 Was right when we started running trade deficits. Imports started outselling exports. We can blame tax policy and outsourcing all we want but the numbers don't lie, it's really nobody's fault but our own. BTW, we were warned this would happen.

 

[Jaskalas]

1970 Was right when we started running trade deficits. Imports started outselling exports. We can blame tax policy and outsourcing all we want but the numbers don't lie, it's really nobody's fault but our own. BTW, we were warned this would happen.

Also when we opened up trade with China.

 

[jackstar7]

Looks like a bubble to me

Or... you know... the baby boomers retiring...