RIM in trouble?

[poofyhairguy]

Not to mention revenue potential - despite their slowing marketshare, Blackberry phones have curiously done very well in terms of actual app purchases, and RIM takes a healthy percentage of that money. With the Android model in PlayBook, they're still getting that percentage, devs just have to repackage and submit it to App World.

RIM's hope for a turnaround relies on QNX. It really is a very good platform. If it gets app support - whether it be Android or native - and it gets on some solid handsets early next year, they are still in the game. Like I said, remember, despite the poor trends, RIM still has money, its not like its "do or die" this quarter.

Here is what I don't get about RIM:

Ok, so they have this app store now based on their old crap OS. It makes them money, is gaining ground, and has a cool trick where Android developers can easily port their applications. Sounds great.

But soon, for their survival, RIM is going to have to throw out that old crap OS for QNX. Doesn't that suddenly mean that their current app store, and all the resources they put into the current app store, will be a waste in the long run?

If the Playbook can magically run normal Blackberry apps in some VM layer please tell me because I must have missed that.

If not it seems like Blackberry gets to start over in 2012 by pissing off all their loyal customers by making their favorite apps unavailable on their next phone. If that is the case I don't understand the point of QNX Blackberries. If you lose backward compatibility, what keeps people from jumping to iOS/Android?

If that is the case, then it seems the only point of the continued existence of non-Android Blackberry phones is RIM's pride...

 

[Deeko]

Here is what I don't get about RIM:

Ok, so they have this app store now based on their old crap OS. It makes them money, is gaining ground, and has a cool trick where Android developers can easily port their applications. Sounds great.

But soon, for their survival, RIM is going to have to throw out that old crap OS for QNX. Doesn't that suddenly mean that their current app store, and all the resources they put into the current app store, will be a waste in the long run?

If the Playbook can magically run normal Blackberry apps in some VM layer please tell me because I must have missed that.

If not it seems like Blackberry gets to start over in 2012 by pissing off all their loyal customers by making their favorite apps unavailable on their next phone. If that is the case I don't understand the point of QNX Blackberries. If you lose backward compatibility, what keeps people from jumping to iOS/Android?

If that is the case, then it seems the only point of the continued existence of non-Android Blackberry phones is RIM's pride...

Here's the problem - people want to kick and scream that RIM is outdated, and that they need to fix their OS...but then they want to kick and scream that RIM is potentially going to build a new OS. Palm did it with WebOS. Microsoft did it with Windows Phone 7. Blackberry will likely do it with QNX. It needs to be done.

Now, they might be able to have some sort of a compatibility layer. For example, a WebWorks app for Blackberry OS probably works as a WebWorks app in QNX. Perhaps some of the Java SDKs could be wrapped. But, doesn't Blackberry OS support native C++ development? Yea - those apps will probably need to be rewritten, short of a built-in emulator. There's nothing they can do about that.

Frankly - RIM following your advice right now is exactly why they're in this situation. They've been trying to appease their existing base while moving forward. As Microsoft saw with Windows Mobile 6.x, that doesn't work. At some point, you've got to wipe the slate clean - which is what they're doing with QNX. And even if they can't get the BBOS apps to run, they've already got a working port for Android apps on QNX...that seems like a pretty big boost to a new platform, if you ask me.

 

[DivideBYZero]

Here is what I don't get about RIM:

Ok, so they have this app store now based on their old crap OS. It makes them money, is gaining ground, and has a cool trick where Android developers can easily port their applications. Sounds great.

But soon, for their survival, RIM is going to have to throw out that old crap OS for QNX. Doesn't that suddenly mean that their current app store, and all the resources they put into the current app store, will be a waste in the long run?

If the Playbook can magically run normal Blackberry apps in some VM layer please tell me because I must have missed that.

If not it seems like Blackberry gets to start over in 2012 by pissing off all their loyal customers by making their favorite apps unavailable on their next phone. If that is the case I don't understand the point of QNX Blackberries. If you lose backward compatibility, what keeps people from jumping to iOS/Android?

If that is the case, then it seems the only point of the continued existence of non-Android Blackberry phones is RIM's pride...

There's literally hundreds of Playbook Apps, all of which are QNX based, in App World. Also, it's a pretty badly kept secret that along side the Android App Player there is going to be a traditional BlackBerry Player, too. Not that I as a PlayBook user would be that bothered by it, there are plenty of decent apps and games turning up every day on PB.

 

[poofyhairguy]

Now, they might be able to have some sort of a compatibility layer. For example, a WebWorks app for Blackberry OS probably works as a WebWorks app in QNX. Perhaps some of the Java SDKs could be wrapped. But, doesn't Blackberry OS support native C++ development? Yea - those apps will need to be rewritten. There's nothing they can do about that.

If Apple could make something like PPC to Intel go smooth, RIM can do the same.

Heck, if they modernize their phones they will go from 2008 specs to 2011 specs- about three to four times the overall power. That is enough of a margin to fit a translation or virtualization layer in to ensure backward compatibility. That would turn heads.

Frankly - RIM following your advice right now is exactly why they're in this situation.

My advice isn't to keep the old crap OS going. My advice is to admit that if you are going to have to throw away backward compatibility and start from scratch it might be better just to look in the mirror and discover that maybe the head-start of competitors requires a "go-along to get along strategy." My advice is that if current BB apps aren't going to work on their next great phone OS than the money for development would be better spent on a custom Android launcher and a BBM port.

They've been trying to appease their existing base while moving forward.

Well yeah, its like AOL in 2003 in that the slow movers are all that they have left. If they don't appease them then they have to win back early adopters and that means that the QNX Blackberries need to have a NEW killer app (no longer depending on the OLD killer apps). RIM hasn't had a killer app in years.

I guess the main thing I don't understand is: Why did they create the first Blackberry store to begin with? Before they released the first app it was obvious that their platform was a dead end compared to iOS. Why didn't they just put the emphasis on moving to the next OS, waiting to launch their app store when it was going to be the only app store under their brand? Now their platform is faced with a fragmentation problem that makes Android look like OSX, all while they are in fourth place and slipping.

I am not anti-Blackberry, I want them to succeed to increase options. I am just thinking if I was an investor of the company I would want every manager or engineer who thought it would be good idea to put resources into the crap app store to be given the pink slip if they can't make those apps work seamlessly on the QNX Blackberries.

I mean, what message does this send to Blackberry developers? "All that hard work you put into your app for our kinda insignificant platform is a waste in a few months. Sorry."

And even if they can't get the BBOS apps to run, they've already got a working port for Android apps on QNX...that seems like a pretty big boost to a new platform, if you ask me.

So all those Android app developers who already resubmitted to get in the crap Blackberry store will have to apply to get their app into the non-crap Blackberry store? Or is RIM announcing that it will take some initiative to push their current pile of approved Android-crossover apps into the new marketplace? That would be a pretty bold but needed move.

 

[gsaldivar]

kick and scream that RIM is potentially going to build a new OS.

People aren't really complaining because RIM is building a new OS. They are complaining that it took them so long to decide to do so...

QNX was only purchased last year, more than 3 years after the iPhone launched. Even at that time, RIM's stated purpose for QNX was to "integrate and enhance the user experience between smartphones and in-vehicle audio and infotainment systems".

Since last year, QNX has now been "re-positioned" as RIM's next-gen OS for all its devices...

 

[Deeko]

It needed to be done in 2009. Now it might be too late and a waste of resources.

Yea, maybe it should have happened earlier, but what's the alternative? Just say "screw it, we're too late" and roll over and die? People keep clamoring for Android, but you've got realize how incredibly unlikely that is to happen.

If Apple could make something like PPC to Intel go smooth, RIM can do the same.

Very different situation. What you're talking about here is more like Microsoft porting Windows to ARM, or if Blackberry decided to use a different processor architecture for BBOS. A new OS is a new OS.

Heck, if they modernize their phones they will go from 2008 specs to 2011 specs- about three to four times the overall power. That is enough of a margin to fit a translation or virtualization layer in to ensure backward compatibility. That would turn heads.

The 2011 lineup was a pretty big jump hardware-wise, and the PlayBook's specs match up fine with any of the competition, so I doubt the 2012 QNX phones will be terribly underpowered. We'll see though.

My advice isn't to keep the old crap OS going. My advice is to admit that if you are going to have to throw away backward compatibility and start from scratch it might be better just to look in the mirror and discover that maybe the head-start of competitors requires a "go-along to get along strategy." My advice is that if current BB apps aren't going to work on their next great phone OS than the money for development would be better spent on a custom Android launcher and a BBM port.

Its not going to happen. They'd lose a ton of income potential, and its really a lot harder to do than you think, anyway. The Microsoft deal worked for Nokia because of the very deep partnership Microsoft and Nokia entered into - Nokia isn't going at this alone. I really doubt Google would be willing to help RIM the same way. Plus, they'd lose BES, which is one of their biggest selling points to their existing enterprise customers. I really doubt its that simple to integrate BES into Android.

Well yeah, its like AOL in 2003 in that the slow movers are all that they have left. If they don't appease them then they have to win back early adopters and that means that the QNX Blackberries need to have a NEW killer app (no longer depending on the OLD killer apps). RIM hasn't had a killer app in years.

They've already taken a big step here with the Android app layer. By next year, there should be a lot of Android apps available in App World. If you're a dev, why wouldn't you spend the five minutes it takes to repackage your app for App World? Its not like you actually have to port it, just repackage, submit, and instantly you've got millions more customers.

I guess the main thing I don't understand is: Why did they create the first Blackberry store to begin with? Before they released the first app it was obvious that their platform was a dead end compared to iOS. Why didn't they just put the emphasis on moving to the next OS, waiting to launch their app store when it was going to be the only app store under their brand? Now their platform is faced with a fragmentation problem that makes Android look like OSX, all while they are in fourth place and slipping.

App World released in early 2009 - before there was an iPhone 3GS, when Android only existed on the G1 and Hero (with paltry sales), when Blackberry still had a HUGE chunk of the market that eclipsed Apple's. Things changed a lot in those two years. If you're a RIM exec in 2008, there's no way you say "that's it! We're done!" and throw in the towel. They certainly didn't manage the time in between as well as they should have, but nobody, not even Steve Jobs, would have suggested "Its over for BBOS, scrap it."

I am not anti-Blackberry, I want them to succeed to increase options. I am just thinking if I was an investor of the company I would want every manager or engineer who thought it would be good idea to put resources into the crap app store to be given the pink slip if they can't make those apps work seamlessly on the QNX Blackberries.

I'm sure a lot of people at RIM have and will be fired.

So all those Android app developers who already resubmitted to get in the crap Blackberry store will have to apply to get their app into the non-crap Blackberry store? Or is RIM announcing that it will take some initiative to push their current pile of approved Android-crossover apps into the new marketplace? That would be a pretty bold but needed move.

I'm really not sure what you're asking here. You mean, will they be automatically be porting Blackberry OS apps to App World? Not that I'm aware of, no. However, if you've got an Android app, you literally just package it for App World with a command line tool and submit to the new QNX App World. There's no porting like you would have done to actually move an Android app to BBOS - its just a simple repackaging.

 

[Deeko]

People aren't really complaining because RIM is building a new OS. They are complaining that it took them so long to do it...

QNX was only purchased last year, more than 3 years after the iPhone launched. Even at that time, RIM's stated purpose for QNX was to "integrate and enhance the user experience between smartphones and in-vehicle audio and infotainment systems"...

Sure, except now people have seemingly shifted to "Its too late, switch to Android" as if that's the only thing they can do without going under.

 

[gsaldivar]

Sure, except now people have seemingly shifted to "Its too late, switch to Android" as if that's the only thing they can do without going under.

Well, I don't agree with the "switch to Android" crowd. I think RIM still has a very good chance of keeping a market leading position, but they really have to light the fire under QNX developers at this point. RIM needs a single next-gen platform for both their phones and tablets, and they needed it 3+ years ago.

Their management needs to internally concede that they are no longer the cutting edge company they once were. I honestly don't think they can proceed with the tough decisions unless they are capable of getting past that first step.

RIM needs a company-wide 110% effort on getting their entire messaging platform on QNX immediately. That means contacts, email, calendar, messaging, and getting it all working with the security and administrative backend, etc.

Yes, as has been stated, their revenue is still nothing to sneeze at. However, that will not last indefinitely. They are too late to the tablet game, and are rapidly bleeding their bread-and-butter corporate contracts. In my opinion, they are racing against the clock. If not for the survival of the company, certainly for their position as a market leader in the smartphone industry...

 

[yllus]

RIM absolutely must trash BlackBerry OS 5/6/7 to move forward. It is outdated and of a completely different UI paradigm. There is simply no way to have backwards capability going from a D-pad device to one that utilizes a touchscreen.

Going to Android OS is a non-option for the same reason Nokia chose not to - being a differentiator solely on quality of the handset is a sucker's bet.

RIM simply needs to stay focused and ride this out. Analysts and laymen alike are going way overboard in predicting the company's demise. Yes, they're behind, but they're a smart company with a lot of capital to play with. With the Android Player and the increasing maturity of HTML/JS Web app frameworks, they don't have long to wait until developers release one version of a program that works on nearly all devices.

 

[poofyhairguy]

Yea, maybe it should have happened earlier, but what's the alternative? Just say "screw it, we're too late" and roll over and die?

Actually if we are going to play the "What if" game, I think what RIM should have done instead of buying QNX was to take Nokia's deal. RIM + MS = Corporate Phonegasm

Very different situation. What you're talking about here is more like Microsoft porting Windows to ARM, or if Blackberry decided to use a different processor architecture for BBOS. A new OS is a new OS.

Actually Apple did do a whole OS transition smoothly back during the OS9 to OSX era. And they did it exactly how RIM should do it- virtualization.

The next lineup of Tegra comes with hardware level virtualization support ala x86 CPUs. If I am RIM then that is my target SOC platform and all the developers for the crap Blackberry OS are given one mission- make this OS run in a virtualized layer.

Its not going to happen. They'd lose a ton of income potential, and its really a lot harder to do than you think, anyway.

I bet its hard. I admit integrating BES to Android would be hard. Seems like every option RIM has is hard. At least if they pull off the Android option there is a guaranteed future for RIM. If they pin their fortunes on the QNX option and it fails in ten years they are Palm.

The Microsoft deal worked for Nokia because of the very deep partnership Microsoft and Nokia entered into - Nokia isn't going at this alone.

Which is why that should have been RIM's deal.

I really doubt Google would be willing to help RIM the same way.

Why not? Google was willing to give Moto the Xoom headstart. RIM still has some sway now at its current size, I bet they could get Google to agree to many under-the-table concessions. You don't think Google wouldn't give RIM some advantage for the coupe of absorbing that customer-base?

App World released in early 2009 - before there was an iPhone 3GS, when Android only existed on the G1 and Hero (with paltry sales), when Blackberry still had a HUGE chunk of the market that eclipsed Apple's. Things changed a lot in those two years. If you're a RIM exec in 2008, there's no way you say "that's it! We're done!" and throw in the towel. They certainly didn't manage the time in between as well as they should have, but nobody, not even Steve Jobs, would have suggested "Its over for BBOS, scrap it."

I guess you are right about this. Hindsight is 20/20.

I'm really not sure what you're asking here. You mean, will they be automatically be porting Blackberry OS apps to App World? Not that I'm aware of, no. However, if you've got an Android app, you literally just package it for App World with a command line tool and submit to the new QNX App World. There's no porting like you would have done to actually move an Android app to BBOS - its just a simple repackaging.

I guess what I was asking was "Is RIM gonna wait for these Android developers come to them, or are they gonna go out and push them to repackaged their apps?" You know, like some sort of big marketing campaign, or early incentive (the first 20000 developers get a discount, etc.)?

 

[gsaldivar]

If you're a RIM exec in 2008, there's no way you say "that's it! We're done!" and throw in the towel. They certainly didn't manage the time in between as well as they should have, but nobody, not even Steve Jobs, would have suggested "Its over for BBOS, scrap it."

Steve Jobs wouldn't scrap a platform without having something in development to replace it. While not a perfect analogy, look at Apple's shift of the Mac platform from PowerPC to Intel processors for an example of successfully moving a massive platform to a next-gen architecture...

That's the kind of planning one might have expected from RIM given their market-leading, highly-rated, lucrative platform...

 

[Deeko]

Steve Jobs wouldn't scrap a platform without having something in development to replace it. While not a perfect analogy, look at Apple's shift of the Mac platform from PowerPC to Intel processors for an example of successfully moving a massive platform to a next-gen architecture...

That's the kind of planning one might have expected from RIM given their market-leading, highly-rated, lucrative platform...

A better example is the aforementioned Mac OS 9 to Mac OS X. The fact that you're moving the platform to a different underlying architecture means you completely control the things that happen under the hood - you can't just automatically recompile someone else's app.

I did not know, however, that Apple had seemless virtualization for OS9 apps in OS X. If it can be done well, something like that would be a good solution for QNX, I agree.

 

[poofyhairguy]

I did not know, however, that Apple had seemless virtualization for OS9 apps in OS X. If it can be done well, something like that would be a good solution for QNX, I agree.

They actually supported it all the way until the Intel switch-over (I guess one compatibility layer was enough):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classic_Environment

Plus a little research and I have discovered that RIM has done this before:

http://press.rim.com/release.jsp?id=1229

 

[the DRIZZLE]

Actually if we are going to play the "What if" game, I think what RIM should have done instead of buying QNX was to take Nokia's deal. RIM + MS = Corporate Phonegasm

I think it would have been interesting if RIM had won the bidding for Palm instead of HP. We might have seen something interesting happen.

 

[gsaldivar]

I think it would have been interesting if RIM had won the bidding for Palm instead of HP. We might have seen something interesting happen.

I think QNX is a much more solid foundation for RIM's next-gen platform than Palm's last-minute OS.

 

[the DRIZZLE]

I think QNX is a much more solid foundation for RIM's next-gen platform than Palm's last-minute OS.

Well the amount of time needed to bring a QNX based OS to market has resulted in RIM forfeiting the consumer market. They could have taken WebOS, slapped BBM and their own email app on it and called it Blackberry Consumer Edition or something. It would have at least kept them in the game.

 

[akugami]

What would RIM stand to gain by switching to Android? That would just make them one of many manufacturers cranking out generic Android phones. And good luck licensing iOS.

I disagree. RIM's bread and butter has always been their Blackberry Enterprise Servers and their Blackberry messaging system. Put that on RIM based Android phones. Make it so that the messaging app requires a RIM Blackberry Android phone. I'm sure it'll be cracked to run on other Android phones in no time but RIM can still sell a ton of official Blackberry phones and still stem the flow of defectors.


RIM is still a healthy company. They haven't been growing as fast as the other modern mobile OS's (basically iOS and Android) but they still have time, and the financial resources, to turn things around. They don't have that much time though and needs to come out with a sound strategy within the next 12 months. I truly feel that the future of RIM is going to be decided in the next 12 months. If they fail, they're going to get eclipsed by Android and iOS permanently.

The real problem for RIM is that they are quickly losing mindshare. They're selling as many phones as before but losing marketshare as a result of the growth of the smartphone market as a whole. This is similar to how Apple can sell 70% more phones compared to the previous year and still lose marketshare. However, they're not growing as fast as Android or iOS and for developers, they are losing their luster as the preferred platform to develop for.

Developers have limited resources. If they had to only choose one or two platforms to develop for, it's either going to be iOS and Android or one of those two. They'll likely drop Blackberry development as a result. Especially considering that they can cover roughly 60% of the market by developing for these two. Apple may not be larger than RIM in marketshare but their app store is the premiere app store. Android has a decently large app store and currently has the largest installed user base.

 

[gsaldivar]

Analysts and laymen alike are going way overboard in predicting the company's demise.

I've heard this repeated several times, but I don't find it to be true at all. I don't know of any notable analyst who is predicting RIM's demise. This is all about RIM losing it's position as market leader.

Obviously, with great marketing and greatly reduced staff, RIM could continue as a profitable company almost indefinitely...

 

[Pliablemoose]

I'm certainly not a BB fan, but I do strongly think QNX is the best OS for them to develop, while I use Android as a phone OS, I would rather see iOS, Android, QNX, WP7, and Web OS devices all on the market.

With no competition, our smartphones would quickly turn to crap...

RIM's biggest mistake was in not developing QNX for phones alongside tablets, it would have helped immensely to have a sophisticated touchscreen phone OS nearly ready to go this summer...

Apple, HP and RIM are the only companies that produce the phone and manage their own OS, IMHO, this gives them a significant advantage, particularly as apps are migrated to the web, rather than packaged bits of software...

 

[gsaldivar]

I would rather see iOS, Android, QNX, WP7, and Web OS devices all on the market. With no competition, our smartphones would quickly turn to crap.

Totally agree. :thumbsup:

 

[yllus]

I've heard this repeated several times, but I don't find it to be true at all. I don't know of any notable analyst who is predicting RIM's demise. This is all about RIM losing it's position as market leader.

Obviously, with great marketing and greatly reduced staff, RIM could continue as a profitable company almost indefinitely...

I'm not sure I would recognize a notable analyst if I read one, but there definitely is press out there talking about RIM's total demise:

Computerworld Blogs: RIM death-march? Stock tanks 15%, layoffs; COO "quits"

Huffington Post Tech: Can RIM Survive As Apple, Android Up The Ante?

Mostly though it really is the peanut gallery talking smack. RIM just needs to keep its eye on the ball and get through this.

 

[gsaldivar]

Mostly though it really is the peanut gallery talking smack. RIM just needs to keep its eye on the ball and get through this.

Yea, I consider those "blogosphere" (I hate that word) chatter rather than analyst opinion. I'm rooting for RIM, they are an innovative company filled with extremely bright people. Unfortunately they seem to be plagued by poor decision-making on behalf of their executives.

In the event that they do get bought out, I think that would constitute a significant loss of innovation to the entire smartphone market...

 

[PhoKingGuy]

 

[DivideBYZero]

Interesting quote on CrackBerry today:

Back in June 2006 RIM announced during their quarterly earnings that they moved 1.3 mllion devices. Now in June 2011, they announce they moved over 13 million devices in a quarter and it's treated it like it's the end of the world.

 

[Alone]

RIM only needs to bring their QNX phones in soon. They'll be fine if they can roll those out sooner than predicted.