RIM death watch

[Imp]

The new CEO steped in. Said he was goign to do a bunch of stuff. He has been executing. This is the first thing that he has said he was going to do that wasn't done. But 90%+ of what he has said he is going to do is being done. As a shareholder, I am happy to see the transparency and honesty.

With software integeration, it's hard to knwo what that means. Is it integrating the OS. is it hte market place integration on a global scale? Is it pre-installed apps that are not ready? Is integration complete but integration testing is failing in a few spots? Welcome to the grey area of investing. If they can't get a compiled OS, I would worry. If it is the app storethat is not ready, I can see delaying the release. That; makes total sense. I think it is actually the likely reason for the delay since developers have working hardware in their hands already.

But it's tech/product development... It's common knowledge that these things rarely run according to schedule, releases almost always get pushed back, and my impression is that BB10's release date was very aggressive. The new CEO's only been here for a while, and even if he had every employee working 24/7 on developing the product, it'd be difficult to see how they could develop a "flawless" product so quickly... especially given their track record. The CEOs changed, but it sounds like lots of middle managers, executives stuck around.

 

[jpiniero]

Google is essentially dumping Android; it's got to be incredibly difficult to compete with that (except for Apple, but Apple is Apple). So it's extremely hard to make a profit on smartphones or tablets, and BES is being blown out by cheaper alternatives. This extends to Microsoft too, which will find out the hard way ($80 for a Windows RT license? Are you kidding me?).

RIM's upside is getting bought by some hedge fund and taken private for a pittance. They'll gut the company and continue to sell current contracts as long as it's profitable. Oh, and become a patent troll.

 

[SickBeast]

RIM's biggest mistake was buying that QNX company instead of going with Android. What a disaster. I know someone who is working on a very advanced engineering team at RIM and he told me that OS10 is not stable. They are working on all sorts of other cool stuff but none of it will work because the base OS is broken.

Android works and works well. I don't know why they wanted to re-invent the wheel. QNX is nice but it's not really any better than Android aside from multitasking which would be a trivial add on for Android anyways.

 

[Imp]

RIM's biggest mistake was buying that QNX company instead of going with Android. What a disaster. I know someone who is working on a very advanced engineering team at RIM and he told me that OS10 is not stable. They are working on all sorts of other cool stuff but none of it will work because the base OS is broken.

Android works and works well. I don't know why they wanted to re-invent the wheel. QNX is nice but it's not really any better than Android aside from multitasking which would be a trivial add on for Android anyways.

I thought they bought it to have something "ready-made"... Except when they bought it they were gloating about how awesome it was in cars and dash computers, that they'd have to "shrink" it.

 

[SickBeast]

I thought they bought it to have something "ready-made"... Except when they bought it they were gloating about how awesome it was in cars and dash computers, that they'd have to "shrink" it.

Well look at the Playbook. It took them close to a year to get QNX running properly on it.

 

[The-Noid]

The playbook had potential; however appeared to be rushed from the start.

 

[Deeko]

RIM's biggest mistake was buying that QNX company instead of going with Android. What a disaster. I know someone who is working on a very advanced engineering team at RIM and he told me that OS10 is not stable. They are working on all sorts of other cool stuff but none of it will work because the base OS is broken.

Android works and works well. I don't know why they wanted to re-invent the wheel. QNX is nice but it's not really any better than Android aside from multitasking which would be a trivial add on for Android anyways.

As I recall, Samsung is the only Android manufacturer that makes any money off of it. There is a LOT of money in being a platform owner. If anything, their biggest mistake was not switching to something like QNX sooner - abandoning their platform wasn't the way to go. Just look at Palm - they tried to do that when Windows Mobile sprang up. They ditched PalmOS for WinMo and it failed miserably. Palm is dead because they didn't reset and create WebOS sooner.

 

[BladeVenom]

Google is essentially dumping Android; it's got to be incredibly difficult to compete with that (except for Apple, but Apple is Apple). So it's extremely hard to make a profit on smartphones or tablets, and BES is being blown out by cheaper alternatives. This extends to Microsoft too, which will find out the hard way ($80 for a Windows RT license? Are you kidding me?).

MS is paying Nokia to use Windows on their phone. http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...ng-to-pay-230-per-phone-to-beat-apple-google/

 

[Doppel]

What people in the USA fail to recognize:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904103404576557703316562230.html

Indonesia, Blackberry's savior!

http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/29/technology/rim-blackberry-10/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

Amid the delays, RIM's device shipments are declining rapidly. Smartphone shipments fell 41% over the year to 7.8 million last quarter. And the company shipped a paltry 260,000 PlayBook tablets.

I highlighted, bolded, and italicized the part that says RIM is fvcked.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

How about the part where RIMs market share in India grew from 13% to 15% the past quarter? Not in any US article. But it is out there.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

This is awesome. The layoffs are old news. Over 20 years the company got bloated and inefficient. Thorsten is moving RIMM to a Lean Manufacturing model. The 5000 person layoff is actually good news as a business owner. It has nothing to do with saving money on salaries. It has to do with making the interdisciplinary interactions more efficient.

 

[rockyct]

Seriously, why are you getting so worked up about this like we're in the P&N section? If BB10 succeeds and stops the bleeding, a year or two from now most of us will be eating a lot of crow. You can argue however you like, but to most people, RIM looks like it's circling the drain. That is a reasonable view right now. You don't have to take it personal like you're on the RIM PR team.

 

[Imp]

Seriously, why are you getting so worked up about this like we're in the P&N section? If BB10 succeeds and stops the bleeding, a year or two from now most of us will be eating a lot of crow. You can argue however you like, but to most people, RIM looks like it's circling the drain. That is a reasonable view right now. You don't have to take it personal like you're on the RIM PR team.

He's a shareholder... and averaging down his cost base as we speak.

India growth from 13-15%... Not exactly a country with people who can afford to swap $500 phones twice a year for shits and giggles.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Why do I talk alot about it?

I have read up alot on smart phones and cell phones in the world economy. The notion that RIMM is dieing just doesn't match up with actual facts. In the US, everyone thinks its dieing because few people by blackberries anymore. That is not the world model though, jsut hte US model.

If BB10 flops, it could be the end though. I am not that dilusional. They need a next gen device that people want. The only issue in the US is entrenchment of Droid and iOS. Again though, that is not the world model, just the US model.

Every article I have read for the past 6 months is the same information over and over again. Thre are about 5 talking points that the articles always key in on. Not one has discussed RIM on a country by country basis which would be objective reporting. I've read articles everywhere from CNBC.com to seekingAlpha that doesn't even have the facts correct. How many articles said that a keyboard based BB10 will most likely come within a month of the touchscreen only? Not one? That's not relevant?

PS: I am not averaging down. I first bought stock at $9.86. I bought options earlier than that but with a 2014 experation I am not that worried. They will be worthless or worthfull. If RIMM hits $5, maybe I'll buy more actual stock.

 

[Doppel]

How about the part where RIMs market share in India grew from 13% to 15% the past quarter? Not in any US article. But it is out there.

How about the part where this minor growth is buried in a 41% reduction in smartphone sales.

The notion that RIMM is dieing just doesn't match up with actual facts.

Did you miss the bit where 41% less sales year over year? This is an unmitigated catastrophe. Don't believe me, believe RIM, a third of staff killed off again.

The only issue in the US is entrenchment of Droid and iOS.

And you realize that both of these came years after BlackBerry. They are entrenched because BB was already a dinosaur and let them come along. Now you look at the offerings and these ecosystems are sprinting away from BB. BB's only bread and butter in the West (where it matters) are business users. Consumers have no interest in them because they have no apps and never will. Oh, and the hardware is pathetically slow.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Doppell,

Are you trolling me?

 

[Doppel]

Doppell,

Are you trolling me?

Are you trolling us? Nobody with critical thinking skills thinks anything but that RIM is doomed. That you're trying to pretend otherwise, including tidbits like If RIMM hits $5, maybe I'll buy more actual stock. I am more inclined to think you're trolling.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/blackberry/9364722/Time-to-hang-up-on-BlackBerry.html

 

[The-Noid]

Explain how the decrease in working capital can be seen as anything but a negative. The decrease in revenue and earnings is bad; however as much as working capital decreased that is the signs of a company that is in significant peril. Cash burn would have been $300-$400MM this quarter without significant pulls forward to cash generation.

 

[Puddle Jumper]

Go watch the videos.

Example. Playing angry birds and want to check your facebook?

Android:
Playing angry birds
close Angry Birds (loosing state)
navigate to Facebook tile
Open Facebook app (no new mesages)
play with facebook
Exit facebook
... repeat for e-mail, text mesaages, 4 square, etc ...
find angry birds tile
Launch ANgry Birds (starting new session)

Flow:
Playing angry birds
Use gesture to see if there are new messages in e-mail, facebook, etc
1 second later, back at angry birds right where you left off

Now I am sure there may be ways to do things in Facebook, e-mail, etc more efficiently. But not by default and not by the Droid OS. maybe through a 3rd party app. This is all in BB10 as part of the OS.



Now apply this to everything out there. It just works in BB10 w/ Flow. If it can be done on Droid/iOS you need to find workarounds.

I have a Droid. It works. But watching the BB10 in action, it blows my Droid away in terms of user experience. Think otherwise? It's like saying that it is easier to change CDs than use your smartphone's media player.

The videos are all out there showing off the BB10 and how it interacts with the operator. I went in with an open mind. There is a reason I own RIMM stock and call options.

2008: Old BB ..... look at how awesome this iPhone is and Droid is. Everyone moves to those platforms. And now (2012), BB10 is ready to come out and once everyone sees how good the user experience is, they obviosuly will remain loyal to iOS and Droid.

On my Galaxy S2

Play angry birds
go to home screen and launch facebook
launch gmail
launch browser
launch Google Voice
bring up multitasking screen and resume angry birds exactly where I left it.

No workarounds, Android already has more than adequate multitasking so BB10 offers no advantage there. To top it off the Galaxy S2 is already a year old and is much less powerful than the latest Android superphones.

 

[Doppel]

That criticism of droid above I cannot speak to but apparently some don't have it. I know the iPhone maintains state of apps like games when one moves back and forth.

At this point BB10 could be the greatest thing since sliced bread and even that may not be enough. The article I just posted had an analyst referring to it as "launching fireworks under water". It will not only have to be the best OS, but since it's now got to be responsible for pulling the blackberry out of the sand pit from return of the jedi it's got to be much better than other OS's. It will have to be so good that even people who hate blackberrys are forced to admit that they want it, and people hate admitting things like that. And at the same time get these people to commit to another two years with RIM.

 

[the DRIZZLE]

How about the part where RIMs market share in India grew from 13% to 15% the past quarter? Not in any US article. But it is out there.

Everyone knows RIM has been doing ok in developing markets but it's only because there aren't any decent Android phones at that price point. Selling at the low end is not a viable long term strategy because that cost advantage will become insignificant as smart phones get cheaper.

Has the media been pilling on RIM for the past six months? For sure. But many of us who follow the sector have been saying that RIM was on a bad trajectory for the past two years.

I have not done a full valuation on RIM in over 12 months so I don't have a target price, but the only thing that would draw me in to a long position a potential MS acquisition. But I'm not sure if MS could get that past the regulators and I don't think they would be interested until the market cap falls below $3bn.

 

[OutHouse]

Google is essentially dumping Android;

??? what?

 

[The-Noid]

Everyone knows RIM has been doing ok in developing markets but it's only because there aren't any decent Android phones at that price point. Selling at the low end is not a viable long term strategy because that cost advantage will become insignificant as smart phones get cheaper.

Has the media been pilling on RIM for the past six months? For sure. But many of us who follow the sector have been saying that RIM was on a bad trajectory for the past two years.

I have not done a full valuation on RIM in over 12 months so I don't have a target price, but the only thing that would draw me in to a long position a potential MS acquisition. But I'm not sure if MS could get that past the regulators and I don't think they would be interested until the market cap falls below $3bn.

I would do a valuation. The financials are becoming more interesting.

 

[theevilsharpie]

??? what?

I'm pretty sure "dumping" in this context means selling on the market for much less than it costs to make.

 

[PowerYoga]

I'm pretty sure "dumping" in this context means selling on the market for much less than it costs to make.

Except google provides the OS and phone manufacturers provide the actual phone that they're selling, so this guy doesn't know what he's talking about in the first place.