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Retail sales struggle despite our red hot economy

Spungo

Spungo

Diamond Member
The country has been doing great since Janet Yellen announced the end of the recession in 2009. The stock market has been steadily growing. Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon, if ever, a 50 or 60 point break from present levels as the perma-bears like Marc Faber and Jim Rogers have predicted. The economy is doing so well that companies are blowing off capital expenditures in favor of share purchasing. IBM, for example, borrowed 2.2 billion dollars so they could buy back 10.5 billion dollars worth of shares while only spending 4.7 billion on capital expenditures. That's how white hot this economy is. They don't even feel the need to invest in the company by doing things like upgrading machines or expanding operations, so surplus cash goes into dividends and reducing the number of outstanding shares. These are the fundamentals of a rock solid economy.

It's not just companies that are doing great. The middle class is doing better than ever. As you can see in the chart below, labor participation is steadily declining as families can now afford to have one person stay at home to raise the kids.

civ-participation-rate.png



For people who want to work, things are steadily improving. Of the people actively searching for a job, only about 8% are unable to find a one.

1-2013-U.S.-Unemployment-Rate.jpg



Despite the strength of our economy, retail continues to struggle.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...s-holiday-seen-weakest-since-2009-retail.html

Have we finally given up on consumer culture and become a culture of thrift? The numbers seem to suggest this is the case. This might mark the beginning of America's next golden age. I've sold all of my holdings in gold and silver mining companies (at the bottom) and put all of my money into solar companies because I see nothing but sunny days and clear skies in our future. :thumbsup:
 
I think the labor statistics are misleading as most of the high-paying work lost in the 2000's was replaced by lower-grade jobs. I don't really see the stock market stats as impressive either, but more of a consequence of chronically low interest rates. Maybe I'm just a pessimist.

I can see why spending on certain consumer electronic categories are down, like computers, TVs, cameras, and probably smartphones and tablets in the near future, because the technology is passing the point of sufficiency for most users and there isn't enough compelling new features to justify upgrading.
 
Stocks "are" doing great.
401K's are doing fantastic.
But none of that really means anything to the typical working American.
401K gains are not ready available cash.
Most people are still shell shocked from 2008, are watching utility and food costs rise monthly, wages and wage increases for most do not keep up with other rising costs.
If you are making $15 - $25 an hour, your yearly wage increase should be at least $2.50 an hour. Not the typical 50-cents to $1.00.
And that is why the middle class gains over the past many years reflects a flat line on the chart.
And hearing companies like Walmart employees, full time workers, are the biggest drain of social services like food stamps, should be outrageous to everyone.
Walmart paying their people low wages, and the workers qualifying for food stamps.
All while such practices by companies like Walmart costs the tax payers billion in social aid every year.
This... should be illegal.
What a company pays employees should fit within a companies profits vs wages.
If not. Bye bye Walmart.
Walmart and the like companies should not be allowed to get away with this if they wish to do business in within American boarders.
Laws should be a set formula measuring profits vs wages paid out.
That includes benefits too.
And by law, every company should be forced to meet set guidelines.
And in the end, that would not hurt one of these high profit, low wage companies one bit.
 
sportage said:
If you are making $15 - $25 an hour, your yearly wage increase should be at least $2.50 an hour. Not the typical 50-cents to $1.00.
And that is why the middle class gains over the past many years reflects a flat line on the chart.
Click to expand...

People should be getting 10-16% raises bare minimum every year?

A $2.50 raise for someone making $15/hr is a 16.66% raise
A $2.50 raise for someone making $20/hr is a 10.00% raise

Math doesn't seem to be my strong suit this week so please feel free to double-check my numbers. 🙂
 
Matt1970 said:
People should be getting 10-16% raises bare minimum every year?

A $2.50 raise for someone making $15/hr is a 16.66% raise
A $2.50 raise for someone making $20/hr is a 10.00% raise

Math doesn't seem to be my strong suit this week so please feel free to double-check my numbers. 🙂
Click to expand...

what's wrong with that guy?

I usually give people the benefit of the doubt, but this is 4 threads I have wandered into that he posts just...just...well fucked up shit.

Anywho...glad to see the economy is doing so great. Now all of my friends that have been out of work for years can finally cash in those Solyndra stocks and get back on their feet!
 
sportage said:
Stocks "are" doing great.
401K's are doing fantastic.
But none of that really means anything to the typical working American.
401K gains are not ready available cash.
Most people are still shell shocked from 2008, are watching utility and food costs rise monthly, wages and wage increases for most do not keep up with other rising costs.
If you are making $15 - $25 an hour, your yearly wage increase should be at least $2.50 an hour. Not the typical 50-cents to $1.00.
And that is why the middle class gains over the past many years reflects a flat line on the chart.
And hearing companies like Walmart employees, full time workers, are the biggest drain of social services like food stamps, should be outrageous to everyone.
Walmart paying their people low wages, and the workers qualifying for food stamps.
All while such practices by companies like Walmart costs the tax payers billion in social aid every year.
This... should be illegal.
What a company pays employees should fit within a companies profits vs wages.
If not. Bye bye Walmart.
Walmart and the like companies should not be allowed to get away with this if they wish to do business in within American boarders.
Laws should be a set formula measuring profits vs wages paid out.
That includes benefits too.
And by law, every company should be forced to meet set guidelines.
And in the end, that would not hurt one of these high profit, low wage companies one bit.
Click to expand...

According to wikipedia walmart has 2.2 million employees. Lets assume that 2 million are low level store workers and the .2 is upper/middle managment. At national minimum wage, which is 7.25(even though some states and localities are higher) and assuming the employees average 20 hours throughout the year, they'd earn 15B collectively. Would you say we would be better off eliminating those jobs because they're "unfair" and shifting ALL of that 15B on to the taxpayer? Would those employees find more gainful employment elsewhere earning $15 - 25/hr, thus removing the need for foodstamps?
 
Most stocks are international corporations and are not a good indication of the US economy. People like me are getting by with less. My wife is out of work right now. There are probably millions of people in the same situation. There are more jobs and most of them are for like 20 hrs a week all because of Obama Care.

I think US Sales figures are the best gauge of the economy right now. I think what is holding people back is this unstable economy because they don't know what is going to happen with the cost of insurance, that for many people Kicks in on Jan 1 2014!

What the unemployment rate does not tell you is how many people would like a job but are not receiving unemployment or have given up looking. Jobs figures are also useless, because those could all be more 20 hr part time jobs and a lot of existing jobs are for people working less hours to comply with Obama Care.

Repeal Obama Care. It is time to impeach everyone that voted for it.
 
Last edited:
Lithium381 said:
According to wikipedia walmart has 2.2 million employees. Lets assume that 2 million are low level store workers and the .2 is upper/middle managment. At national minimum wage, which is 7.25(even though some states and localities are higher) and assuming the employees average 20 hours throughout the year, they'd earn 15B collectively. Would you say we would be better off eliminating those jobs because they're "unfair" and shifting ALL of that 15B on to the taxpayer? Would those employees find more gainful employment elsewhere earning $15 - 25/hr, thus removing the need for foodstamps?
Click to expand...

ouch..

lol
 
But wait! The DOW is near 16000!!11!!!111!

Too bad 85% of stocks are owned by the wealthiest 10% and half the country owns none. The middle and lower income brackets will hardly feel what the FED is doing.

It will be interesting to see how this holiday season goes. People clearly have less discretionary income that they've had in the past. Let's see if they want to rack up some credit card debt to buy their PS4s and iPads. If they don't, then retail sales are going to be very poor.
 
rudder said:
Unlimited QE is fattening up the wall street firms and that is it.
Click to expand...

From the Wall Street Journal
Andrew Huszar: Confessions of a Quantitative Easer - We went on a bond-buying spree that was supposed to help Main Street. Instead, it was a feast for Wall Street.

I can only say: I'm sorry, America. As a former Federal Reserve official, I was responsible for executing the centerpiece program of the Fed's first plunge into the bond-buying experiment known as quantitative easing. The central bank continues to spin QE as a tool for helping Main Street. But I've come to recognize the program for what it really is: the greatest backdoor Wall Street bailout of all time.
Click to expand...
 
s0me0nesmind1 said:
Sarcasm thread aside, this is actually set to be the worst Black Friday / Holiday sales since 2009 slump. Just saying...
Click to expand...

I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing.

On the one hand, maybe people are smartening up a bit and not planning on blowing boat loads of money that they don't actually have

On the other hand, maybe people literally don't have the money to spend.

It's tough to say for certain, hopefully it's the former.
 
Spungo said:
The country has been doing great since Janet Yellen announced the end of the recession in 2009.

<snip>

I've sold all of my holdings in gold and silver mining companies (at the bottom) and put all of my money into solar companies because I see nothing but sunny days and clear skies in our future. :thumbsup:
Click to expand...

I hope you are being sarcastic.
 
Spungo said:
Retail sales struggle despite our red hot economy

The country has been doing great since Janet Yellen announced the end of the recession in 2009.

Have we finally given up on consumer culture and become a culture of thrift? The numbers seem to suggest this is the case. This might mark the beginning of America's next golden age. I've sold all of my holdings in gold and silver mining companies (at the bottom) and put all of my money into solar companies because I see nothing but sunny days and clear skies in our future. :thumbsup:
Click to expand...

You have to be on drugs.

The Serfs are broke, the Kings & Queens will now suffer the Wrath.
 
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