Retail Sales In US Climb the Most in Five Months as Recovery Takes Hold

[Blackjack200]

In theory, it could be, yes. But Bush's only stimulus was a small tax refund that people received in 2008, when the recession was still shallow. He did, however, have a hand in TARP and the auto-bailout. That part of it is shared by both administrations. If this recession had occurred in say, 2006 and Bush had undertaken aggressive measures to boost the economy which hadn't come to fruition until now, then the point could have more validity.

Yes, it's a strawman. I have no problem giving Bush credit for TARP and the auto bailout (to your point, it's somewhat shared between the two administrations, but Bush started it.)

The Bush tax cuts have also helped. I disagree with the way the cut was doled out, but it has definitely had a hand in improving the economy.

 

[DrPizza]

I understand that you take whatever is spoonfed to you as fact.

Why are sales up between February, March and April? During that time people should still be paying off credit card debt from christmas.

Those numbers that are "supposed" to be adjusted, how do the people doing the adjusting know how much to adjust for? How do we know how many tax returns were invested, and how many were spent?

Stop the spoon feeding and think for yourself.

We might as well look at black Friday as evidence that the economy is recovering, as then look at February.

~edit~

Before the celebrate that the economy is recovering, lets wait for June, July and August and see what things look like then. But even then, people are going to have to be spending on back to school supplies and clothes, so there might be a spike in the economy in August as well.

So, what you're saying is that you don't understand how actuarial science, economic statistics, etc. work, therefore there should be no trust of experts on a subject when they disagree with your ideological opinion?

 

[woolfe9999]

Yes, it's a strawman. I have no problem giving Bush credit for TARP and the auto bailout (to your point, it's somewhat shared between the two administrations, but Bush started it.)

The Bush tax cuts have also helped. I disagree with the way the cut was doled out, but it has definitely had a hand in improving the economy.

The Bush tax cuts may help as stimulus to some degree, but unfortunately those tax cuts were put in place long before the recession, and they had a hand in mushrooming the deficit, which in turn has limited the amount of stimulus we have been able to do to get the economy back on track. In the ideal situation, we would have had a near balanced budget going in, and we could then have had more aggressive stimulus.

 

[Blackjack200]

So all we have to do is keep buying shit on the national credit card for many years and everything will be better? Wow, it's so simple!

Democrats are as big a joke as Republicans, they're just not as in your face crazy. They're actually scarier, because they're stupid enough to believe what they say.

Spending will taper off, but it really should be kept up for some time, until the unemployment levels are back down, corporate spending is up, and the economy can support itself again.

At that point, tax revenues will be up, and transfer payments will be down, all this without any change in policy. It's at that point we should expire the Bush tax cuts, the payroll tax cut, and gradually curb government spending. If all this can be accomplished, the national debt shouldn't look so scary anymore.

 

[Texashiker]

So, what you're saying is that you don't understand how actuarial science, economic statistics, etc. work, therefore there should be no trust of experts on a subject when they disagree with your ideological opinion?

In other words, when presented with evidence, you can not form your own opinion? You just take something at blind faith and go with it?

I trust those so called "experts" about as far as I can throw them. Wasn't it "experts" that gave Enron a top rating right before Enron went belly up? How many examples do you want me to provide showing where experts have been wrong?

Forget "adjusted" numbers, give me the information and let me make up my own mind.

Maybe there is a relation between the between the Federal government having the largest deficit in history in February, and retail sales going up?

 

[xBiffx]

Maybe there is a relation between the between the Federal government having the largest deficit in history in February, and retail sales going up?

Perhaps?

 

[piasabird]

Companies with budgets often invest in the beginning of a new year. Then they build up their inventory and lay people off in the fall. This is kind of an expected cycle. When summer comes everyone buys lawn mowers, swimsuits, bicycles or whatever. Even new cars. I work at a college and we install new computers every summer. Just like clockwork. They have to be orderd in the spring to insure delivery.

 

[Texashiker]

Perhaps?

Economy needs boosting? Just borrow a few billion and throw it out in the form of tax returns.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2012/01/morning-business-memo-irs-delays-refunds/

The US Treasury Department is seeking to borrow $444 billion in the current quarter.

$444 billion in the current quarter? Holy crap, that is a lot of money.

Its kinda funny how the treasury department needs to borrow all of that money right when income tax returns are going out.

 

[werepossum]

I know it's subjective, but this certainly fits my own observations better than retail jobs being down. Stores seem packed to me.

I also think that, regardless of party in control, the booming recoveries of yesteryear are probably over. Our economy is largely driven by consumer spending and much of consumer spending is for imported goods, so increased consumer spending also drives wealth out of the economy. This is especially true for discretionary spending. You have a choice of (largely) American-made in automobiles and most of housing costs are still domestic, but when you buy a new computer or stereo there're simply no American-made choices. This also means that stimulus plans will never pay off in tax receipts (although they may still be worth doing to stop the bleeding and break the cycle of fear.)

 

[hal2kilo]

Don't you point this out in most economics threads? The thing you need to understand is that seasons are not a one time thing, they happen every year.

The concept completely eludes him. He brings this up everytime.

 

[amish]

if only this meant that congress would pass a budget...

 

[PliotronX]

Just from what I've observed and experienced, I think there are positive signs but I just think it's odd that anything retail is used as a metric for economic recovery. Used to be tangible product or output that was the benchmark. It is an information based economy to be sure but selling stuff as a measure of economic output? Anyway, too busy to give a damn.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Is there an agency which keeps track of cumulative consumer debt? It would be interesting to know how much of the increase in spending is due to income vs. increase in personal debt.

 

[JSt0rm]

I understand that you take whatever is spoonfed to you as fact.

Why are sales up between February, March and April? During that time people should still be paying off credit card debt from christmas.

Those numbers that are "supposed" to be adjusted, how do the people doing the adjusting know how much to adjust for? How do we know how many tax returns were invested, and how many were spent?

Stop the spoon feeding and think for yourself.

We might as well look at black Friday as evidence that the economy is recovering, as then look at February.

~edit~

Before the celebrate that the economy is recovering, lets wait for June, July and August and see what things look like then. But even then, people are going to have to be spending on back to school supplies and clothes, so there might be a spike in the economy in August as well.

Be honest. You were home schooled weren't you?

 

[Ausm]

Right.

Well, except that Europe also had a collapse at the same time we did, and after adopting austerity measureas (as many Republicans would be infavor of) as opposed to fiscal stimulus, they are stagnating or are in decline.

Can't wait to vote for Obama again to keep this growth going. :thumbsup::thumbsup:

Maybe I'll even vote twice! :awe:

You could in my state because the GOP "has a sad" because our courts deemed the Voter ID law in Wisconsin unconstitutional.

Happy dance

 

[rudder]

I disagree that the article shows anything substantial on logical grounds, and that we should wait and see if the recovery lasts before making judgements.

But this simple logic has the potential to take Blackjack off his Obama-high, so:

Click!

4!

Feel better discounting logical opinions? A short-term recovery was basically guarranteed by the stimulus. Let's see how long it lasts.

Americans racked up an additional $48 billion in credit card debt last year..

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...wr201203120312creditcardmar13,0,3205509.story

Easing of credit has helped as well... now whether the majority can pay off this debt remains to be seen.

 

[dank69]

I know it's subjective, but this certainly fits my own observations better than retail jobs being down. Stores seem packed to me.

I also think that, regardless of party in control, the booming recoveries of yesteryear are probably over. Our economy is largely driven by consumer spending and much of consumer spending is for imported goods, so increased consumer spending also drives wealth out of the economy. This is especially true for discretionary spending. You have a choice of (largely) American-made in automobiles and most of housing costs are still domestic, but when you buy a new computer or stereo there're simply no American-made choices. This also means that stimulus plans will never pay off in tax receipts (although they may still be worth doing to stop the bleeding and break the cycle of fear.)

Stores have been packed around here lately as well. Real estate market is picking back up in the NE as well. Friend of mine has been trying to sell his house since 2008, just finally sold this week after being put back on the market for less than a week. One showing and sold at close to asking price and now he has to find a new house but there isn't much available.

 

[Exterous]

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/trendin...g-stolen-stores-across-country-162253268.html

So do you think this means the country is in a recovery?

What does Tide being used as payment for drugs have to do with this thread?

 

[Texashiker]

Be honest. You were home schooled weren't you?

No, I was not.

I believe "everything" is up for debate; everything has a risk of being flawed.

Just because a think tank of so called experts says something is this way or that way, we should not blindly accept those statements as fact. Everyone one of us is human, we are all capable of making mistakes, and that is just the way it is.

Besides being human and making mistakes, a lot of people will fudge the facts to make them fit into a preconceived assumption. How many times has a scientist been accused to forging evidence? More then I can to count. But yet we are supposed to take something handed to us as fact?

I want the information presented to me, and I will make up my own mind.

As for the high sales in February being evidence that the US is in a recovery, sorry, I do not believe it. February and March are poor months to judge the true state of the economy.

Lets wait until the kids are out of school for the summer, and then we will see how much extra money people have to go on vacation. How many people are going to be able to afford to go on a vacation, as compared to 5, 10, 20, 30 years ago.

 

[dank69]

No, I was not.

I believe "everything" is up for debate; everything has a risk of being flawed.

Just because a think tank of so called experts says something is this way or that way, we should not blindly accept those statements as fact. Everyone one of us is human, we are all capable of making mistakes, and that is just the way it is.

Besides being human and making mistakes, a lot of people will fudge the facts to make them fit into a preconceived assumption. How many times has a scientist been accused to forging evidence? More then I can to count. But yet we are supposed to take something handed to us as fact?

I want the information presented to me, and I will make up my own mind.

As for the high sales in February being evidence that the US is in a recovery, sorry, I do not believe it. February and March are poor months to judge the true state of the economy.

Lets wait until the kids are out of school for the summer, and then we will see how much extra money people have to go on vacation. How many people are going to be able to afford to go on a vacation, as compared to 5, 10, 20, 30 years ago.

Why is this February not comparable to last February? What about March 2012 vs. March 2011?

 

[Blackjack200]

I like how you will ignore seasonally adjusted data because you don't like the month it is for, but you have no problem using vacations as a barometer of economic health when gas prices are near all time highs.

Nice.

Don't worry, I'm sure there will always be some piece data you can use to convince yourself the economy is doing poorly. The voters in November won't be so obsessed, however, they'll be thinking about how much better their lives are now that they can find work.

 

[Texashiker]

I like how you will ignore seasonally adjusted data because you don't like the month it is for, but you have no problem using vacations as a barometer of economic health when gas prices are near all time highs.

Is the government going to be sending out $ billions in july?

The economy of February, March and part of April are being artificially supported by the government through tax returns.

After the people spend those stimulus checks, the economy will return it its natural state.

Why is this February not comparable to last February? What about March 2012 vs. March 2011?

Are you talking "adjusted" numbers, or raw numbers?

The only thing I would like to see adjusted for is inflation.

 

[shira]

I like how the OP is wondering about spin while puts his own on the situation. Obama is responsible for retail growth lol

But you maintain that Obama is responsible for high unemployment.

So your general point is that Obama is responsible for bad economic things but not for good economic things.

LOL at you.

 

[dank69]

...

Are you talking "adjusted" numbers, or raw numbers?

The only thing I would like to see adjusted for is inflation.

Is your theory that the numbers this February were adjusted differently than they were last February?

 

[Texashiker]

Is your theory that the numbers this February were adjusted differently than they were last February?

Show me numbers from February 2010, 2011 and 2012, and lets go from there.