Recissions over, you can go back to work without worry now*

[Phokus]

*just poking fun at a certain P&N member who likes to make hilarious economic forecasts here

But this is certainly encouraging news:

U.S. stocks surged Monday as banks such as Bank of America and economically sensitive stocks like Alcoa drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the highest levels in more than a month with a near 7% gain, its biggest rally since October.
A plan unveiled by the Treasury Department strikes at the heart of the problems for the financial system - fears about bank solvency because of balance sheets laden down by assets that nobody wants to buy. By creating a market for these securities, the plan may help banks to free up more capital for lending. In combination with other Federal Reserve and Treasury programs, the plan may "reflate" the U.S. financial system, economy and, indeed, the stock market.

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Templeton Asset Management Ltd.?s Mark Mobius said the next ?bull-market? rally in developing- nation equities has begun as stocks surged from Shanghai to Sao Paulo on the U.S. Treasury?s plan to revive the banking system.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed the most this year, erasing losses for 2009, on U.S. plans to buy as much as $1 trillion of toxic assets. China?s Shanghai Composite Index rose for a sixth day, the longest winning stretch in more than 17 months, as the government encouraged mergers in the auto and steel industries. Russia?s Micex jumped to the highest since October after Citigroup Inc. said the stocks are ?dirt cheap,? while banks led Brazil?s Bovespa index to a 5.1 percent gain.

?You have to be careful not to miss the opportunity,? Mobius, who helps oversee about $20 billion of emerging-market assets as executive chairman at San Mateo, California-based Templeton, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. ?With all the negative news, there is a tendency to hold back.?
...
?Next Bull Market?

?No one can call the bottom in the stock market,? Eloya, a portfolio manager at Fidelity, said in a briefing in Seoul.

?You are going to see a lot of bouncing off the bottom because there?s a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the market,? Mobius said. ?But I have a feeling we?re at the bottom and now we?re building a base for the next bull market.?

What do you guys think? We've had a few 'dead cat bounces' over the course of the last few months, but the market responded quite forcefully over the Treasury's plans here... makes you wonder why we weren't talking about such a plan last year.

edit: I guess i should post some bad news along with the good:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7851...8c9d-0000779fd2ac.html

China's central bank talking about a new reserve currency to replace US dollar

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Phokus

What do you guys think? We've had a few 'dead cat bounces' over the course of the last few months, but the market responded quite forcefully over the Treasury's plans here... makes you wonder why we weren't talking about such a plan last year.

leading indicators do appear to have hit bottom and some are starting to trend upwards. The could be very near, even before much of stimulus money hits the streets. NOt that much was going to hit the streets this year.

 

[frostedflakes]

The recent gains are encouraging, but I agree it's a bit early to get excited.

Also, wasn't buying toxic assets the plan from the beginning (you know, before the Paulson switcheroo)?

 

[Vic]

Meh, only a few days off.

 

[ProfJohn]

A sure sign the economy has hit bottom is the fact that no one has bumped my thread from last August.

BTW last line of my commentary said:
'My guess is that we see a decent 3rd quarter and then another poor 4th quarter (4th quarters tend to suck) and then perhaps next year we get a real rebound. "

Looks like I was right.

 

[JEDIYoda]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
A sure sign the economy has hit bottom is the fact that no one has bumped my thread from last August.

BTW last line of my commentary said:
'My guess is that we see a decent 3rd quarter and then another poor 4th quarter (4th quarters tend to suck) and then perhaps next year we get a real rebound. "

Looks like I was right.

actually nobody has bumped your thread from last August because nobody cares about what you have to say on the subject.
If you had any sort of honest track record to speak of....
It`s sad when most people view your opinions as being pointless and not rooted in the truth and having no intellectual honesty.... did I about cover why nobody bumped your previous post...lolol

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
A sure sign the economy has hit bottom is the fact that no one has bumped my thread from last August.

BTW last line of my commentary said:
'My guess is that we see a decent 3rd quarter and then another poor 4th quarter (4th quarters tend to suck) and then perhaps next year we get a real rebound. "

Looks like I was right.

i think its going to be the opposite, another weakish 3rd q and strongish 4th followed by a moderate recovery in early 2010. I think we have 1 more real bad employment report to go, and probably 1 kinda bad one after that.

Housing seems to have hit a bottom and is beginning to the long rebound to reasonable levels, i suspect auto's will follow suit in a few months. Industrial good manufacturers should start to rebound shortly after that. The main threat is going to be some moderate inflation as the economy picks up, maybe a little over 5% annualized in q4 2009/q1 2010; the fed is going to have to work hard to control money supply if/when lending picks up. In spite of this atrocity of an bank salvage plan, it will at least help fix them, even if it brings in huge moral hazard payments and is much less efficient than other plans.

The bailout has truely been a boon for mankind

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: Vic
Meh, only a few days off.

hi5


i've been running late, i was figuring it woudl be more into late summer before things really started looking better.

 

[StageLeft]

I see an awful lot of optimism considering it was only last week when the government became so desperate that it literally began printing money. It is simply too early to say that this was the bottom, as it's been only two weeks of rallying.

 

[Double Trouble]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I see an awful lot of optimism considering it was only last week when the government became so desperate that it literally began printing money. It is simply too early to say that this was the bottom, as it's been only two weeks of rallying.

I'd have to agree. I sure hope I'm just wrong and the optimism is warranted, but something tells me things are still going to get a lot uglier. The other issue is that if the economy actually starts perking up by itself over the next few months, then the "stimulus" money is going to drive us into massive inflation.

 

[StageLeft]

Although CNBC is as much manic depressive as anybody else (two weeks ago they couldn't talk this rally up enough, and today I see a link like this), there are clearly a lot of people who think it's still a bear market rally. I suppose that's why it's only gone up as much as it has (granted, a damn lot) instead of bumping up quickly much higher.

I wish I could really do more than relay information, though. If this has taught me anything it's that I really have no clue where the market is headed. Won't be quitting my day job (voluntarily) any time soon.

 

[boomerang]

The market is up because investors are desperate for any news (maybe excuse is a better word) to drive the market up at this point.

We've got to come up with a term similar to Voodoo Economics to encompass the Treasury Department's plan for these 'toxic assets'. One could come up with several analogies to describe this latest ploy but when the smoke clears, they're still trying to remove the stink from shit. Well, shit stinks.

 

[techs]

The real test of the economy will be this coming Christmas. And the real clue to an economic recovery will be when credit card companies and mortgage lenders actually end their contraction and free up credit.

However, the "recovery" will not bring us back to anywhere near where we were. The huge transfer of manufacturing and service jobs out of the U.S. will permanently lower the standard of living of Americans.

 

[RightIsWrong]

Two semi-positive weeks and everyone declares "The worst economy since the Great Depression" cured? How funny.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: techs
The real test of the economy will be this coming Christmas. And the real clue to an economic recovery will be when credit card companies and mortgage lenders actually end their contraction and free up credit.

However, the "recovery" will not bring us back to anywhere near where we were. The huge transfer of manufacturing and service jobs out of the U.S. will permanently lower the standard of living of Americans.

The lenders companies aren't going to "free up" the credit markets. They all realize now it was a stupid model lending to bus drivers.


Not to mention the historic mountain of debt that has/will be created. When the next recession comes, we're going to be shooting blanks.


Oh and OP is a troll and a moron. Guess he feels like he needs to fill the void Dave has left us.