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Recession is over for Germany & France

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No Lifer
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Other euro countries have shrunk for the quarter, though. Stocks were up and are set to go up quite strongly in the US at open today.

Increasingly people think the US' recession is over, although things are still souring overall for the average person, from foreclosure to jobs (I think the gov still expects an ultimate 10% unemployment, contrary to any .1% dip last month).

In any case, this is good news and not bad 🙂
 
Yep, little positive signs, that's a good thing. I'm still somewhat wary of this whole "hey, it's over, everything's great now!" attitude that I'm seeing. There is still a loooong way to go before the job market is in good shape, and I'm pretty sure we're going to see inflationary problems given our collective appetite for deficits and spending.
 
Well ...

As positive as their results, one quarter does not make a 'recession-buster' and using the stock market (both domestic and abroad) is a poor metric. The stock market is up 45% in the USA since the low point last winter as an example.

Cool Tool from the BEA, here.

In the USA, gov't expenses up marginally and personal consumption up slightly. The ugly is in 'Gross private domestic investment'. It's continuing to crater and down 30%+ since Q307.

BEA Release for Q209
 
Maybe sun spot activity. I was reading about swine flu and all of a sudden my ear started to ring so I called the undertaker and booked a vacation in Hawaii.
 
It is good news, but it doesn't mean that a recession is over there. Just like a one quarter drop in GDP doesn't necessarilly mean a recession occured, a one quarter increase in GDP doesn't necessarilly mean a recession ended.

Think about it. Germany's economy is still 7.1% below what it was this time last year. That is far from a recovery. And a massive drop (-3.5%) followed by a slight gain (+0.3%) is not good news when taken together. All it really means is that the timing of the quarter end is making the data volitile. Had the quarter end been shifted either way a bit they could have both been modest declines.

It may be a recovery. But until we have more data, don't confuse this volitility with a definate recovery.
 
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Fucking socialists. How dare they be better capitalists than the infallible US?
Click to expand...

and how dare Germany be the biggest exporter in the world with a trade surplus! 😛

actually, fuck Germany. My company just decided to let Europe run the US side of business and they have decided to build all (most) tooling in Germany and ship it to the US. My plant, it seems, is doomed! 🙁
 
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Increasingly people think the US' recession is over
Click to expand...

Increasingly people think stupid things. Housing started this mess, look towards housing to recover before thinking it's over. Else these people will badly burn themselves and whatever money they have left.
 
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Fucking socialists. How dare they be better capitalists than the infallible US?
Click to expand...

and how dare Germany be the biggest exporter in the world with a trade surplus! 😛

actually, fuck Germany. My company just decided to let Europe run the US side of business and they have decided to build all (most) tooling in Germany and ship it to the US. My plant, it seems, is doomed! 🙁
Click to expand...

Imagine that. All of those things AND socialized healthcare.
 
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Fucking socialists. How dare they be better capitalists than the infallible US?
Click to expand...

and how dare Germany be the biggest exporter in the world with a trade surplus! 😛

actually, fuck Germany. My company just decided to let Europe run the US side of business and they have decided to build all (most) tooling in Germany and ship it to the US. My plant, it seems, is doomed! 🙁
Click to expand...

yeah, but at least that tooling will be really high quality!
 
Originally posted by: canadageek
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Fucking socialists. How dare they be better capitalists than the infallible US?
Click to expand...

and how dare Germany be the biggest exporter in the world with a trade surplus! 😛

actually, fuck Germany. My company just decided to let Europe run the US side of business and they have decided to build all (most) tooling in Germany and ship it to the US. My plant, it seems, is doomed! 🙁
Click to expand...

yeah, but at least that tooling will be really high quality!
Click to expand...

and costs 1.5 times as much and doesn't have any of the US required safety features (which add to that 1.5 times figure to make it higher and have to be installed when it gets here).
 
The Bank of Canada essentially declared the Recession over up here a few weeks back. It certainly appears to have ended, but something could happen to sink everything down again. Cross your fingers.
 
The exact same thing happened during the great depression according to the League of Nations data.

While the rest of the world recovered, the spending programs in the USA provided a small short term bump but eventually dug the hole deeper and screwed the US long term.
 
It's amazing that Germany is the worlds biggest exporter. I know they make nice cars and machines etc...but what else do they export? I've never seen anything Made in Germany. Do they export secret doomsday weapons?
 
Originally posted by: Patranus
The exact same thing happened during the great depression according to the League of Nations data.

While the rest of the world recovered, the spending programs in the USA provided a small short term bump but eventually dug the hole deeper and screwed the US long term.
Click to expand...

Incorrect.
 
Originally posted by: StinkyPinky
It's amazing that Germany is the worlds biggest exporter. I know they make nice cars and machines etc...but what else do they export? I've never seen anything Made in Germany. Do they export secret doomsday weapons?
Click to expand...


Fom Wikipedia

"In 2003 Germany exported US$748.4 billion of merchandise, while exports of goods and services totalled US$873.3 billion. Principal merchandise exports were motor vehicles (US$145.5 billion), machinery (US$103.0 billion), electrical goods (US$210 billion), chemical products (US$181.5 billion), and telecommunications technology (US$35.1 billion). Germany?s main export partners were France (10.6%), the United States (9.3%), the United Kingdom (8.4%), Italy (7.4%), the Netherlands (6.2%), Austria (5.3%), Belgium (5.0%), and Spain (4.9%)."
 
Originally posted by: sandorski
Originally posted by: Patranus
The exact same thing happened during the great depression according to the League of Nations data.

While the rest of the world recovered, the spending programs in the USA provided a small short term bump but eventually dug the hole deeper and screwed the US long term.
Click to expand...

Incorrect.
Click to expand...

I see, can you point out a section of my statement that is incorrect?

Not sure where you can find it online but I would like to direct you to the primary source
League of Nations, World Economic Survey: Eight Year, 1938 - 1939
 
Originally posted by: Skoorb

Increasingly people think the US' recession is over, although things are still souring overall for the average person, from foreclosure to jobs (I think the gov still expects an ultimate 10% unemployment, contrary to any .1% dip last month).
Click to expand...

The U.S. is last in everything now so no surprise it will be last to come out of recession.
 
Originally posted by: Patranus
Originally posted by: sandorski
Originally posted by: Patranus
The exact same thing happened during the great depression according to the League of Nations data.

While the rest of the world recovered, the spending programs in the USA provided a small short term bump but eventually dug the hole deeper and screwed the US long term.
Click to expand...

Incorrect.
Click to expand...

I see, can you point out a section of my statement that is incorrect?

Not sure where you can find it online but I would like to direct you to the primary source
League of Nations, World Economic Survey: Eight Year, 1938 - 1939
Click to expand...

"the rest of the world" didn't recover on their own volition. France began recovering because massive amounts of capital infusions, through gold deposits, made at French banks by wealthy internationalists.

Germany expanded because they were the trough of the trough and the huge public projects driven by Hitler (autobahn) and getting back the Saarland, not to mention huge amounts of war buildup, drove their GDP positive. GB , which was effectively the cause of the GD (we helped them re-float a gold backed pound, which failed anyway), came out much the same as Germany, mostly due to war buildup.

Japan, same as Germany.

China didn't fall as far (still as yet untapped) but they also had a different currency (more floating and against a broader range of commodities), thus they were insulated from the massive upswing and thus isolated from the fall.

The US didn't build up it's military in huge quantities for some time, thus, it lagged the world. However, the projects undertaken by FDR lead to an overall reduction in unemployment, from 25% to 14% or so, by 1937 (IIRC). The trend was further downward, however, in fear of too much debt and protection of the currency, they raised taxes and requested the Fed increase interest rates. This caused a recession, which was exited through WW2.

 
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