Discussion RDNA 5 / UDNA (CDNA Next) speculation

[Josh128]

RGT: AMD likely to focus on professionals rather than gamers. Unlikely to produce an "Nvidia killer" gaming card

Is this something new or just regurgitated MLID info?

 

[marees]

Is this something new or just regurgitated MLID info?

RGT's own position

 

[Win2012R2]

What I liked most in recent MLID video is lack of "and now message from my sponsor", which is clearly due to him understanding that Sony might have him in their legal crosshairs.

RGT's own position

Not his awesome industry sauces?

 

[Win2012R2]

RGT: AMD likely to focus on professionals rather than gamers. Unlikely to produce an "Nvidia killer" gaming card

Professionals don't buy AMD GPUs, this moat will be the last to fall (as in dry up or get bridged).

 

[marees]

Professionals don't buy AMD GPUs, this moat will be the last to fall (as in dry up or get bridged).

Who was the Radeon VII for ?

 

[marees]

What I liked most in recent MLID video is lack of "and now message from my sponsor", which is clearly due to him understanding that Sony might have him in their legal crosshairs.


Not his awesome industry sauces?

He probably just scrounges the forums like rest of us ... 😀

 

[Win2012R2]

Who was the Radeon VII for ?

$699 card, aimed at gamers because they could not sell it to pros at 3-4x the price.

 

[Win2012R2]

He probably just scrounges the forums like rest of us ...

RGT does that and makes stuff up - plus I find his voice incredibly irritating and so is the text he seemingly makes up as he goes along, he alone gives MLID incredible levels of credibility.

 

[MrMPFR]

In his latest video about leaking the PS6 handheld, MLID claims the RDNA5 CUs are not RDNA4 WGP-equivalent.

Watched the vid and analysed it. This might be a little crazy but there are multiple issues (*) with it and this needs to be adressed:

The following is not in order.

*Calls out @Kepler_L2 for speculating that CDNA5 WGP mode could be brought to RDNA 5, when it's tech media being irresponsible and careless and reporting on it as fact. Also MLID isn't exactly a saint and overhypes AMD products. N2X and +7ghz Zen 6 on consumer come on.

Shares renderer of die

Reveals up to date specs

Shares BOM estimates for all PS6 gem SoCs. Used $20K wafer prices for N3P. Without AMD markup.
And lists likely PS5 Canis handheld and home console price ranges and Orion (PS6) price range.
My extrapolated die size for PS6 Orion around 270-280mm^2 or -10% vs launch PS5 on N7.

*The pricing estimate for PS5 SoC at launch is bizarre. Like N16 N7 had excellent ramp and d0 reduction curve. D0 below 0.1 in mid to late 2020. N7 stable at ~$10K/wafer since forever which would put SoC price at ~$60 not $105.

*No emphasis on retailer and distributor pricing overhead. This would sour selling at at lower price estimate even further.

Thinks Canis needs 24-36GB based on dev feedback

Reiterates claims about Sony wanting to bury PS4 for good.

*Game devs think console needs well above 30GB to run nextgen games, base this on current factors and doesn't include forward looking functionality. A few examples:
#1: LLMs in 2030s will be nothing like the ones in 2025. Look at token/$ and accuracy progress for mini-versions of LLMs, it's very fast. Devs could get away with tiny models in the future.
#2: GPU workgraphs (50-70X reduction in scratch buffers)
#3: Smarter and lower footprint BVH frameworks
#4: Neural compression for assets and textures. NTC is just the beginning everything will prob be AI compressed going forward.
#5: Smarter asset loading (Sampler Feedback streaming+ etc...)

With the rendering side changes at iso-fidelity VRAM usage can shrink >10X. Leaves plenty of room for the LLMs and Cerny def knows this since AMD is spearheading GPU workgraphs and they're collaborating on Project Amethyst.

*Not sure but it sounds like he thinks they'll go 40-48GB on PS6 Orion and Xbox Magnus. For Orion this requires 4GB x 5 clamshell over 160bit bus pr 4GB x 6 clamshell over 192bit bus. This isn't happening.This would end budget gaming for good and the nextgen consoles. $/GB isn't dropping remotely fast enough to make this a reality.

 

[adroc_thurston]

N2X

True.

+7ghz Zen 6 on consumer come on.

unlike but yea that's the target.

 

[Win2012R2]

*Calls out @Kepler_L2

And implies he should delete his account like Greymon...

Used $20K wafer prices for N3P. Without AMD markup.

AFAIK it's Sony that pays for wafers, AMD gets royalty - at least this is how that allegedly was in PS4/5, see no reason why that won't continue again.

Thinks Canis needs 24-36GB based on dev feedback

Anything above 24 gb seems like fantasy land, unless they use split GDDR7 and cheaper LPDDR5X/6 for main volume, ie: 16 + XX

 

[adroc_thurston]

Anything above 24 gb seems like fantasy land

?
These boxes have to last-last and need healthy DRAM pop counts.

 

[Win2012R2]

These boxes have to last-last and need healthy DRAM pop counts.

Big boxes yes for sure, must have at least 32 GB really, better 48 GB, but handheld? This portable will compete with Switch 2 which has got 12 GB, which is the baseline for portable games for the next 6-7 years, devs porting to it won't have problem with 16 GB PS6 portable.

Big LLMs can be kept "in the cloud" - which will require internet connection, but Sony naturally wants this to be the case anyway, it also solves problem of running game on PS5 which will be key baseline platform for next 6-7 years at least.

Key "AI" worloads for next gen is upscaling and neural rendering malarkey, now that's practical important things that needs to be done real quick on client side.

 

[coercitiv]

And implies he should delete his account like Greymon...

I think people should listen to MLID when he gives such expert advice, after all he's an authority on deleting his own videos to improve his "leak" hit ratio. /s

Also, bonus MLID swag material:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776085853804413035

 

[Win2012R2]

MLID

He seems to be super duper excited in his recent "leaks", literally salivating as he speaks, Scaramucci would have said that he likes to .......

 

[adroc_thurston]

This portable will compete with Switch 2 which has got 12 GB, which is the baseline for portable games for the next 6-7 years, devs porting to it won't have problem with 16 GB PS6 portable.

Well you see, this will be running PS6 titles actual, not Switch 2 ports.
In any case, LPDDR makes DRAM pop counts a lot easier.

 

[Win2012R2]

Well you see, this will be running PS6 titles actual, not Switch 2 ports.

Yeah, and Switch 2 will attempt to run PS5 titles.

Since Sony (according to MLID) will be doing Microsoft with a crippled -S model then devs on PS6 will already have to cater for the lowest common denominator, maybe mem difference won't be as bad as on -S and -X but it will certainly be, and devs ain't going to use different LLMs, much easier just to keep big stuff into "cloud", gets lots of useful telemetry too.

And when will first PS6 proper titles appear? This might take longer than with PS4/PS5, the baseline of PS5 is pretty good and installment base will certainly be above 100 mln.

 

[adroc_thurston]

and devs ain't going to use different LLMs,

The what.
No one's stuffing language models into games.

 

[Win2012R2]

No one's stuffing language models into games.

I used LLM as the current hot "AI" example, but what other type of a large model you expect to be stuffed into games?

 

[adroc_thurston]

what other type of a large model you expect to be stuffed into games?

None.
None of them do anything

 

[Win2012R2]

None.
None of them do anything

Well, MLID's argument for much bigger RAM is that it will be needed by future games utilising large models (language or not).

Personally I think memory should be increased regardless - 64 GB ideally, even if only 16 GB is fast GDDR7 and 48 GB is "slow" DDR5, now that's proper next gen.

 

[Josh128]

Buying PC tech today in hopes it will meet desired requirements of the future is a fools errand.

 

[proelitedota]

I could not resist the urge to schizo post

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I don't see the Magnus chiplet?

 

[marees]

I don't see the Magnus chiplet?

The 40 "CU" one

 

[Joe NYC]

Well, MLID's argument for much bigger RAM is that it will be needed by future games utilising large models (language or not).

Personally I think memory should be increased regardless - 64 GB ideally, even if only 16 GB is fast GDDR7 and 48 GB is "slow" DDR5, now that's proper next gen.

I think it is better to have the memory unified.

So are we now assuming that ALL of the consoles will use LPDDR?