RCP changes electoral map. Puts Virginia into toss up column.

[techs]

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-551.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.c.../maps/obama_vs_mccain/

The last four polls show McCain gaining maybe 3 points which puts Obama's lead back into the toss up category.
And the RCP electoral map now shows only 278 for Obama in the solid and leaning.
Clearly this is a trend.

 

[bdude]

This was always a close race.

 

[miketheidiot]

virgina of all places huh?

 

[jpeyton]

Races tighten by a point or two as we approach election day; this was expected.

The fact that Obama is leading by 4 points in a state Bush won in 2000/2004 by 8 points...that's a 12 point swing in the electorate in 4 years.

You can't really expect much more than that from Obama. I think after we factor in the cell phone and black voter effect, Obama will carry VA by 5 points.

Since VA closes their polls at 7PM EST, I think the state will be called for him by 8:30PM EST at the latest.

One final thing to note: Obama has held onto a solid lead in CO all week. Remember that his original strategy of all the Kerry states plus IA, NM, and CO don't require VA's electoral votes at all.

 

[First]

Christ you are a horrible poster.

 

[midway]

So you have to give mccain every tossup state, every mccain leaning state, and an obama leaning state (CO) and he still loses due to it going into the house of reps.

 

[Engineer]

Arizona now in toss up. :laugh:
Several other states in toss up now.

Not only is Obama's numbers dropping, but so are McCain's.

Arkansas is now "leaning" McCain (was solid McCain).

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: techs
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-551.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.c.../maps/obama_vs_mccain/

The last four polls show McCain gaining maybe 3 points which puts Obama's lead back into the toss up category.
And the RCP electoral map now shows only 278 for Obama in the solid and leaning.
Clearly this is a trend.

I think you should look at your own links. The second one showing the overall map has Obama winning even if McCain gets every single "toss-up" state in the country. At least 3 of those "toss-ups", OH, VA and FL, have shown consistent (if narrow) Obama leads for quite some time now. McCain winning all of them would be a very impressive turnaround on his part, and that STILL doesn't get him an electoral college victory. In order to win, McCain would also need to take away a likely Obama state like Colorado or Pennsylvania, or both Nevada and New Mexico. Certainly not impossible, but if McCain is trending towards victory, he's doing it pretty slowly.

Basically it comes down to this. It's not impossible for McCain to win, but many, many things will have to break his way for him to win. In contrast, Obama just needs to hold Kerry's states (which should be easy) and win in one or two of the several Bush states where he has a lead.

 

[shira]

Do not forget that weekend polls are much more unreliable than polls taken in the middle of the week, because people are much harder to reach by phone. So the sample of people reached is generally not as representative of the entire electorate as mid-week polls. FiveThirtyEight.com also showed a narrowing, based on the early polls released today, but it's really not possible to conclude anything.

 

[microbial]

The real, America-loving Virginians must be getting out the vote a bit more, closing in on the communist, America-hating Virginians.
NC, Va., Indiana, and Mo. were going to be close based on the polls, all the way to the end.

I think Ohio, Pa., and the western swing states are locked in blue by now.

Fla. is my surprise pick going blue.

 

[ProfJohn]

I think there is a good chance that McCain takes all the toss up states. They are all red states.

Also any state in which Obama polls under 50 could be a McCain state on election day. Many people think the undecideds will go McCain's way.

I think it is a lot closer than many people think. Then again, McCain losses Va and Pa then it is an early night.

 

[quest55720]

It will still be a blow out win for Obama tuesday. Just need to keep the democrats from 60 seats to limit the damage of a far left administration.

 

[Pepsei]

i still doesn't know who's going to win.... my #1 issue is China vs. Taiwan... so i'm torn....

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I think there is a good chance that McCain takes all the toss up states. They are all red states.

Also any state in which Obama polls under 50 could be a McCain state on election day. Many people think the undecideds will go McCain's way.

I think it is a lot closer than many people think. Then again, McCain losses Va and Pa then it is an early night.

The idea of "red states" and "blue states" has mostly come up since 2004, and for the most part the idea of which states are which is based ONLY on that election.

In declaring states "red", you're ignoring what's happened in those states since the 2004 election, and in many cases what's happened since then. Ohio is, at best, a purple state...even in 2004, Bush's margin was quite small, and Clinton won it both times he ran for office. Virginia has been trending blue for a while now, as evidenced by the results of the 2006 election, and while it might be a traditionally red state, there is little evidence that's still true. Florida is another purple state that's too close to declare one way or the other.

But regardless of whether or not all the toss-up states are red, you're missing the point. McCain has to take every single one of them, AND another state (or two) from Obama to win. While the toss-ups were won by Bush in 2004, some of them were by somewhat narrow margins, so even to win all of them should be difficult for McCain. I think you're blinded by the map in 2004, which involved much different circumstances and candidates.

Of course the best predictor is sometimes history...and you're the guy who suggested the Republicans would hold both houses in 2006, so I'm not sure how much weight I'd give to your analysis.

 

[uclaLabrat]

Concern troll fail.

Obama still has greater than 50% support is just about all the swing states, and is holding nationally at about 5%. If his ground game turns out on Nov 4th like it has been during all the early voting, it's more likely he'll break 400 EV's than not crack 300. It ain't close, and hasn't been in over a month. Check out 538 for more detailed analysis.

 

[smack Down]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I think there is a good chance that McCain takes all the toss up states. They are all red states.

Also any state in which Obama polls under 50 could be a McCain state on election day. Many people think the undecideds will go McCain's way.

I think it is a lot closer than many people think. Then again, McCain losses Va and Pa then it is an early night.

It is no where near close. The media is just trying to prevent calling the election a week before it happens.

 

[chess9]

Yes, and the reason it's not really close is because of the move to cell phones. Many of the pollsters do not have a good cell phone database. Most of the younger people are on cell phones. Hell, I'm on a cell phone and haven't gotten a single call about the election. For the last 5 elections I've been hounded by pollsters. Nary a call this time.

And a lot blacks and Hispanics are on cell phones as well.

So, the polls are under-representing the cell phone population, and that could be a 3-5 point swing in Obama's favor.

-Robert

 

[extra]

Originally posted by: chess9
Yes, and the reason it's not really close is because of the move to cell phones. Many of the pollsters do not have a good cell phone database. Most of the younger people are on cell phones. Hell, I'm on a cell phone and haven't gotten a single call about the election. For the last 5 elections I've been hounded by pollsters. Nary a call this time.

And a lot blacks and Hispanics are on cell phones as well.

So, the polls are under-representing the cell phone population, and that could be a 3-5 point swing in Obama's favor.

-Robert

An intelligent post. What are you doing in this thread? This is absolutely correct. If you ever run into a professional sociologist ask them about phone polling for gathering scientific data and watch them cringe like one of us does at the thought of a hardcore gamer trying to run crysis on a pentium 4.

 

[TallBill]

I don't understand the interest in polls unless you can actually control the amount of campaign effort in your state. How about we'll find out some time in the near future and go from there?

 

[Stunt]

If there is a large turn out this is typically bad for the incumbent party.
With the number of new voters and with all the people voting early...this seems to lend itself to a large Obama win.

You can look at the polls from each of the respective parties; Republicans are not excited about their candidate or campaign - McCain has given his base no reason to vote for him. Democrats on the other hand are excited and motivated to vote. Obama has all the money too, ground organization and resources are important; I actually think Obama will win over some states that people aren't even watching like Montana.

This year was never going to be a Republican cycle; not after a large drop in the markets, unpopular war, large consumer debts, large gov't deficits/debt. I'm actually really impressed that the Republicans have been able to stay somewhat competitive.

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: Stunt
If there is a large turn out this is typically bad for the incumbent party.
With the number of new voters and with all the people voting early...this seems to lend itself to a large Obama win.

You can look at the polls from each of the respective parties; Republicans are not excited about their candidate or campaign - McCain has given his base no reason to vote for him. Democrats on the other hand are excited and motivated to vote. Obama has all the money too, ground organization and resources are important; I actually think Obama will win over some states that people aren't even watching like Montana.

This year was never going to be a Republican cycle; not after a large drop in the markets, unpopular war, large consumer debts, large gov't deficits/debt. I'm actually really impressed that the Republicans have been able to stay somewhat competitive.

Yep, first time voting early absentee in Virginia. My g/f (her first time voting Democrat - said she feels dirty lol) and I just mailed in our ballots for Obama FWIW.

 

[JJChicken]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: Stunt
If there is a large turn out this is typically bad for the incumbent party.
With the number of new voters and with all the people voting early...this seems to lend itself to a large Obama win.

You can look at the polls from each of the respective parties; Republicans are not excited about their candidate or campaign - McCain has given his base no reason to vote for him. Democrats on the other hand are excited and motivated to vote. Obama has all the money too, ground organization and resources are important; I actually think Obama will win over some states that people aren't even watching like Montana.

This year was never going to be a Republican cycle; not after a large drop in the markets, unpopular war, large consumer debts, large gov't deficits/debt. I'm actually really impressed that the Republicans have been able to stay somewhat competitive.

Yep, first time voting early absentee in Virginia. My g/f (her first time voting Democrat - said she feels dirty lol) and I just mailed in our ballots for Obama FWIW.

lololololol

 

[StageLeft]

He's fine (Obama).

Remember, many millions have already been locked in.

 

[chess9]

Originally posted by: extra

Originally posted by: chess9
Yes, and the reason it's not really close is because of the move to cell phones. Many of the pollsters do not have a good cell phone database. Most of the younger people are on cell phones. Hell, I'm on a cell phone and haven't gotten a single call about the election. For the last 5 elections I've been hounded by pollsters. Nary a call this time.

And a lot blacks and Hispanics are on cell phones as well.

So, the polls are under-representing the cell phone population, and that could be a 3-5 point swing in Obama's favor.

-Robert

An intelligent post. What are you doing in this thread? This is absolutely correct. If you ever run into a professional sociologist ask them about phone polling for gathering scientific data and watch them cringe like one of us does at the thought of a hardcore gamer trying to run crysis on a pentium 4.

I had a brain fart. Probably the gingko biloba....

But, yes, I don't put a lot of faith in polling anyway.

Of the four 'candidates' (Biden, Palin, McCain and Obama), Obama is head and shoulders above the other three and I think that is so palpable this election that no other result is likely. On the other hand, Americans did vote twice for GW Bush. On the other other hand, Kerry and Gore were running against him.

-Robert

 

[chess9]

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/int...ex.jsp?selConID=376101

McCain down to 11.5%. Not a good sign for Captain Queeg and the McCain Mutiny.

-Robert