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RBG dead

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VRAMdemon said:
I believe the only way Trump doesn’t fill the seat is if 4 Republicans defect and refuse to confirm whoever he nominates, and then for Trump to subsequently lose the election. Although, IMO - Most likely any R senator would be crazy to vote against then nominee. It would be a guaranteed way to end their political career.

I expect that Trump will nominate someone shortly, but I think the bolder move for him would be to announce, “I will nominate a conservative constitutionalist replacement for Justice Ginsburg when I am reelected in November.” Once he nominates a justice, he loses a lot of leverage. McConnell will get his pick through, and Republicans will have locked in a conservative Supreme Court for a generation. At that point, voting for Trump loses some urgency for Republicans.

But if he essentially holds the nomination hostage to his own reelection, Republicans will have to go balls out to secure it – even more so than they are now. It would piss off Republican leaders to no end, but what does Trump care? It’d be like the scene from Goodfellas – “You want this Supreme Court seat? Fuck you, pay me.”

The Merrick Garland nomination showed that arguments about Senate process and precedents have zero resonance with voters. What will resonate with voters is showing that the nominee creates an all-but-guaranteed majority to overturn Roe, upend environmental protections, and reign in civil rights protections.
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This is what I expected. To Trump this will be all about him and somehow saving his ass. The only way he really benefits with voters is if filling it depends on him being re-elected, on the other hand, putting someone in there beforehand who is a total sycophant - can help him when he tries to scam the election after a potential loss.

I think it's clear right now that Trump's play is going to be to hope that he's ahead on the night of the election. Then he'll take to Twitter and declare himself the winner, Fox News will most likely toe that line and feed the horseshit out for him. Then as the mailed ballots are caught up in counting and it turns out he's actually lost, he declares fraud and litigates, or he litigates to try and stop them from actually finishing counting the ballots. I think this is his real hope. The alternate is that he loses even before the mailed ballots are counted, which would be ideal, in which case again he'll just claim outright fraud - but it will be harder for him to scam in that case.

Tilting that court by installing a rubber stamp for him could help that aim. I think it would be a matter of being able to go there with something somewhat reasonable, not a total conspiracy theory of nonsense. I think him trying to get mailed in ballots to not be counted would be his play that he would hope they would stomach. You still have to think that something like that could lead to genuine armed insurrection of the populace. Trump is really hated, and if he genuinely loses the election on the measurable numbers, but pulls some court scam and keeps power - people at that point I would think would get violent.

Trump is in a major panic and is going to try something. He seems pretty aware he's in trouble for his election, and a loss for him could have much bigger implications than just losing.
 
K1052 said:
I know Trump is going to jump on this life preserver with both hands but the available information indicates little political payoff. He's already got the court voters firmly inside the tent and the snapshot we have of a few states indicates public opinion is likely on Biden's side. Plus people are starting to vote and a confirmation battle will take weeks to play out.
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Exactly the pro lifers aren't on the fence. No reason this will bring back voters. But on the flip side, not like people needed more evidence to GOP hypocrisy and want to vote them out.
 
Grey_Beard said:
Is this a parody account?
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That's close to the truth.
Fenixgoon said:
Because McConnell established the precedent. If waiting until after the new president is inaugurated is now the practice/norm, then McConnell should do the same now as in 2016 if he's being consistent and truly believed what he said.

But of course he doesn't, because it was never about waiting for the new president in the first place. It was a paper thin argument to deny Garland a seat.
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And now it's a different situation. Now it's the republican's looking to get another justice nominated. Why is that so hard to understand? They will most likely pull it off, then Joe will expand the court to eleven members and appoint two new justices. When the republican's are back in power they'll add enough body's to flip it the other way.
 
Greenman said:
That's close to the truth.

And now it's a different situation. Now it's the republican's looking to get another justice nominated. Why is that so hard to understand? They will most likely pull it off, then Joe will expand the court to eleven members and appoint two new justices. When the republican's are back in power they'll add enough body's to flip it the other way.
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And how do you think they will get back in “power” as you say? What do they have to offer? The demographic of the nation is against them. Soon the white stranglehold will be a minority. How do they appeal to those they have made villains for a decade? If they win, the window of power is short, unless they turn to force. If they lose, the long-term outlook is bleak. Soon the States will change and they lose everything. Their message does not age well and soon actions have consequences.
 
Muse said:
You're talking secession? Way early for that. It isn't likely to happen. How could it, anyway? The blue states are on the coasts, basically, the red between them.
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Yes. It would be unique geographically but certainly possible. There are nations with many islands, for example, that are dispersed geographically. Some Greek islands are far closer to Turkey than they are to the Greek mainland. It's the only solution to maintain dignity. Trump governs as if there are two America's already, and Mitch has mocked democracy. We will have a majority of supreme court justices picked by presidents who lost the popular vote. Staying in the Union is like letting an abusive spouse continue to abuse you.

Cut the cancer loose.
 
Greenman said:
That's close to the truth.

And now it's a different situation. Now it's the republican's looking to get another justice nominated. Why is that so hard to understand? They will most likely pull it off, then Joe will expand the court to eleven members and appoint two new justices. When the republican's are back in power they'll add enough body's to flip it the other way.
Click to expand...
Maybe the way to go is what someone suggested term limits. Biden gets in and the Senate flips we slap an immediate 18 year term limit law (already previously proposed). Limits take effect immediately. Anyone on the bench >18 yrs goes. Biden then replaces them.

Kind of hard for Republicans to retaliate because the only way to do that is to go down. They couldn't go low enough to take away Biden's picks esp if Biden gets more picks his second term.
 
Grooveriding said:
This is what I expected. To Trump this will be all about him and somehow saving his ass. The only way he really benefits with voters is if filling it depends on him being re-elected, on the other hand, putting someone in there beforehand who is a total sycophant - can help him when he tries to scam the election after a potential loss.

I think it's clear right now that Trump's play is going to be to hope that he's ahead on the night of the election. Then he'll take to Twitter and declare himself the winner, Fox News will most likely toe that line and feed the horseshit out for him. Then as the mailed ballots are caught up in counting and it turns out he's actually lost, he declares fraud and litigates, or he litigates to try and stop them from actually finishing counting the ballots. I think this is his real hope. The alternate is that he loses even before the mailed ballots are counted, which would be ideal, in which case again he'll just claim outright fraud - but it will be harder for him to scam in that case.

Tilting that court by installing a rubber stamp for him could help that aim. I think it would be a matter of being able to go there with something somewhat reasonable, not a total conspiracy theory of nonsense. I think him trying to get mailed in ballots to not be counted would be his play that he would hope they would stomach. You still have to think that something like that could lead to genuine armed insurrection of the populace. Trump is really hated, and if he genuinely loses the election on the measurable numbers, but pulls some court scam and keeps power - people at that point I would think would get violent.

Trump is in a major panic and is going to try something. He seems pretty aware he's in trouble for his election, and a loss for him could have much bigger implications than just losing.
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Yeah - Someone will likely point out to Trump that there may be YUGE advantage to not confirming a Justice before the election. Justices are finicky. Congressional Representatives less so.

We all know Trump is all about himself. He sees his poll numbers against Biden. He also knows many, if not most Republicans in D.C. can’t stand him, barely tolerate him, and use him as a means to work their agenda. If he gives the Republicans their nominee they get what they want and then they say bye-bye to him Nov.4.

If he plays it for himself he tells them “You want your nominee? Then you work your ass off to get me my second term. Second term = nominee. No second term = no nominee.”

Also - Something to think about - As far as I know - Suppose the election is contested and ends up in the Supreme Court. Conflicting lower court rulings in different states need to be resolved to determine the winner. A tie vote in SCOTUS lets the lower court rulings stand. That could toss the election to the House of Representatives.

The House votes by state. One vote per state. So long as the Republicans control a majority of state delegations, Trump wins.
 
MomentsofSanity said:
Wonder how Lindsey is going to back track on this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1307153104941518848

and this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1307111311378206730
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And watch how quickly Lindsey comes up with some lame excuse on how that's no longer valid. We have both him and
Moscow Mitch on tape saying a new SCOTUS appointment should not happen with an impending election yet
RBG is still warm to the touch and he's already said a big "fuck you" to the American populace. A GOP person's word
isn't worth the air used to speak it.
 
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HomerJS said:
Maybe the way to go is what someone suggested term limits. Biden gets in and the Senate flips we slap an immediate 18 year term limit law (already previously proposed). Limits take effect immediately. Anyone on the bench >18 yrs goes. Biden then replaces them.

Kind of hard for Republicans to retaliate because the only way to do that is to go down. They couldn't go low enough to take away Biden's picks esp if Biden gets more picks his second term.
Click to expand...
Might work. But how is that any better or more honest than what the republican's are doing? The democrats changing the rules to win the game will only work till the republican's are back in power. Then they pull off the same shenanigan's.
I agree that the republican's outright screwed Obama out of a court appointment, it was a bullshit maneuver, but it was also within the current rules. But I don't like the idea of a different set of rules every eight years so one side or the other can gain an advantage.
 
Greenman said:
That's close to the truth.

And now it's a different situation. Now it's the republican's looking to get another justice nominated. Why is that so hard to understand? They will most likely pull it off, then Joe will expand the court to eleven members and appoint two new justices. When the republican's are back in power they'll add enough body's to flip it the other way.
Click to expand...
How is it a different situation? A justice died right before an election. If the operating principle is "the next president should have the pick" then it doesn't matter who's in office - the Senate should hold off per McConnell's own words.
Consistency is the important part here. If McConnell hadn't denied Garland a seat, people wouldn't be as pissed as they are right now.

Now, plenty of people would still be horrified at a Trump pick (myself included), but Merrick Garland would be on the bench right now instead were it not for Mitch.
 
Greenman said:
I agree that the republican's outright screwed Obama out of a court appointment, it was a bullshit maneuver, but it was also within the current rules. But I don't like the idea of a different set of rules every eight years so one side or the other can gain an advantage.
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Yeah change how much power Senate leader has. Yes they have control on what comes up on the floor. But this blantent blocking Moscow Mitch has done has to have consequences.
 
BUTCH1 said:
And watch how quickly Lindsey comes up with some lame excuse on how that's no longer valid. We have both him and
Moscow Mitch on tape saying a new SCOTUS appointment should not happen with an impending election yet
RBG is still warm o the touch and he's already said a big "fuck you" to the American populace. A GOP person's word
isn't worth the air used to speak it.
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He already did. After Kavanaugh, everything has changed according to him.
 
When will Democrats learn that nice guys finish last? The current GOP needs to be pounded into oblivion if the Dems take the presidency and the senate, and they need to do it quickly. There also needs to be safeguards and measures so this kind of shit with a shit president and feckless conservatives can't come back like a pulled dandelion. No half measures, no excuses, just deal with and let the country go forward from there instead of staying stuck in the 1960's forever.
 
senseamp said:
Biden needs to come out and say that if the seat is filled before election or during lame duck, he will support ditching the filibuster and packing the court. That will get Democrats to the polls like nothing else.
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This is where the Dems are going and I think it's generally the right tack.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1307369897626939393

Biden is almost certainly to soon lay out in very stark terms what the stakes (choice, healthcare, civil rights, gay marriage) are here and commit to "Using any and all options at our disposal" or something like that. No need to get too into the specifics since we know what it means now.
 
K1052 said:
This is where the Dems are going and I think it's generally the right tack.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1307369897626939393

Biden is almost certainly to soon lay out in very stark terms what the stakes (choice, healthcare, civil rights, gay marriage) are here and commit to "Using any and all options at our disposal" or something like that. No need to get too into the specifics since we know what it means now.
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Nothing is off the table.. means nothing gets done because the Corporate Overlords love people as disposable beings.

I have ZERO faith in them to have a backbone and correct things.
 
K1052 said:
This is where the Dems are going and I think it's generally the right tack.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1307369897626939393

Biden is almost certainly to soon lay out in very stark terms what the stakes (choice, healthcare, civil rights, gay marriage) are here and commit to "Using any and all options at our disposal" or something like that. No need to get too into the specifics since we know what it means now.
Click to expand...

Good, I think the ice is starting to break. Remember, as it stands now, GOP SCOTUS is on track to throw tens of millions off health insurance, and allow tens of millions more to be denied insurance due to a pre-existing condition. In the middle of a pandemic. Democrats should be ready to pounce on the political fallout.
 
fskimospy said:
It’s amazing that anyone is dumb enough to believe this.
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stupid.jpg

I don't know how he again proved how fucking stupid he is, and I don't care.

My purpose of my post is cautionary. Never underestimate how fucking stupid some people are... never
 
And in McConnell's behavior--which surprises nobody surely--we have a classic case of what being "Conservative" really means.

It's about hypocrisy. It's about getting over by any means necessary. It's about cheating and changing the rules to win, all the while pretending you have "American values" and are a Christian. Fair enough, I guess American Christian values are really just that, being a lying cheat to stay on top.

Let's look at the candidates Garland and Kavanaugh. One is a well-respected (by both sides) judge known for taking cases for their merits, and the other is an unqualified partisan frat boy. Pretty much sums up the approach of the two parties these days. One is trying to be accommodating, reaching across the aisle (ask Obama) and consistently getting their hand bitten. The other is trying to get over by any means necessary, because they can see their days of white dominance slowly slipping away.
 
RIP to a transformation person who served SCOTUS with distinction.
Trumps pick will be on the SC - these are republicans we're talking about.
That will also nullify congress' ability to expand the SC (as with FDR, it will come before the court, and, ha ha, be rejected).
This fight, although there will be much more wind and flames to come, is over.
The only thing you can trust about the GOP is that you can't trust the GOP.
 
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