Rasmussen poll 5/2: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%

[buckshot24]

If she is indicted do you guys think it would matter to her supporters?

 

[Genx87]

If she is indicted do you guys think it would matter to her supporters?

No, it would be called a witch hunt.

 

[Exophase]

I full expect Trump to cry he got 10 million more votes but screwed by the electoral college.

That would really be neat since revenge is a dish best served cold after 2000!

That would be extremely unusual.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-worry-about-the-electoral-college-math/

Estimates that if the popular vote split is greater than 4% the odds of an electoral college disagreement are about 0%.

The polling thus far doesn't paint a different picture.

The most disruptive thing that could happen in the race at this point is for an independent or third party run with a very recognizable candidate, intensely targeting a few swing states. Just a few wins could prevent either party from getting 270 electoral college votes and who knows what would happen with the house voting.

 

[fskimospy]

That would be extremely unusual.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-worry-about-the-electoral-college-math/

Estimates that if the popular vote split is greater than 4% the odds of an electoral college disagreement are about 0%.

The polling thus far doesn't paint a different picture.

This is particularly unlikely for a Republican candidate as they have a modest structural advantage in the electoral college when it comes to vote% vs EC% as they tend to win a lot of the midwestern states which have a high EC vote % as compared to their % of US population.

The most disruptive thing that could happen in the race at this point is for an independent or third party run with a very recognizable candidate, intensely targeting a few swing states. Just a few wins could prevent either party from getting 270 electoral college votes and who knows what would happen with the house voting.

That seems to be an extremely unlikely scenario IMO. I can't picture a third party candidate that would actually outright win any state, much less a vital one.

 

[PokerGuy]

That seems to be an extremely unlikely scenario IMO. I can't picture a third party candidate that would actually outright win any state, much less a vital one.

A third party candidate doesn't have to win a state or even come close to winning one to have a major impact. If the election is reasonably close (and I don't think it will be), a third party candidate would just need to siphon off a few percent of the voters of one of the two major parties to cause the other one to win.

<edit: sorry, I didn't see the context of the discussion re: electoral college etc, my bad>

 

[buckshot24]

That seems to be an extremely unlikely scenario IMO. I can't picture a third party candidate that would actually outright win any state, much less a vital one.

If Ross Perot couldn't get a single EC vote I don't see somebody else coming out of the woodwork and doing it this year. I think you're being generous by calling it extremely unlikely.

 

[buckshot24]

A third party candidate doesn't have to win a state or even come close to winning one to have a major impact. If the election is reasonably close (and I don't think it will be), a third party candidate would just need to siphon off a few percent of the voters of one of the two major parties to cause the other one to win.

That's true but not what he was addressing. A 3rd party could be extremely dangerous for either party depending on who it was. If Bern goes 3rd party, its over for the dems.

 

[PokerGuy]

If she is indicted do you guys think it would matter to her supporters?

It would not matter to her supporters / the media, but it would just solidify the "can't trust her" factor with independents.

To me, the email issue is really a bigger wild card than most seem to think. I think it highly unlikely that there will be any significant action coming from the FBI investigation (consider who their boss is), but if for some reason something does happen, it would instantly throw the whole election into chaos.

 

[PokerGuy]

That's true but not what he was addressing. A 3rd party could be extremely dangerous for either party depending on who it was. If Bern goes 3rd party, its over for the dems.

Agreed, I saw that right after I posted, I added an edit to my post.

 

[buckshot24]

It would not matter to her supporters / the media, but it would just solidify the "can't trust her" factor with independents.

To me, the email issue is really a bigger wild card than most seem to think. I think it highly unlikely that there will be any significant action coming from the FBI investigation (consider who their boss is), but if for some reason something does happen, it would instantly throw the whole election into chaos.

I don't get why they'd grant immunity to witnesses if this wasn't more serious than some people are taking it.

 

[SP33Demon]

I doubt it, at least long term. She is suffering from disillusioned Bernie supporters being angry that they lost the primary right now while Trump is benefitting from Republicans falling into line. I strongly suspect that will change in the next month or so.

Look at the delusion from eski. So sad. Trump is up in the last 2 polls, +3 and +5. Like I said, don't be surprised when polling starts to swing in Trump's favor. The Gallup leadership poll on traits didn't come out very well for hilldog. She only won in traits Prepared and Analytical while Trump won in Intense, Competitive, Enthusiastic, and Emphasizes Success. Clinton can't even beat Sanders in states that vote, let alone in leadership traits. So sad.
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polli...sidential-candidates-leaders-public-view.aspx

 

[fskimospy]

Look at the delusion from eski. So sad. Trump is up in the last 2 polls, +3 and +5. Like I said, don't be surprised when polling starts to swing in Trump's favor. The Gallup leadership poll on traits didn't come out very well for hilldog. She only won in traits Prepared and Analytical while Trump won in Intense, Competitive, Enthusiastic, and Emphasizes Success. Clinton can't even beat Sanders in states that vote, let alone in leadership traits. So sad.
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polli...sidential-candidates-leaders-public-view.aspx

Yeah what was that? Clinton leads in the polling averages and has led in 9 of the last 10 polls collected by Pollster.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

Glad to see you're still cherry picking data to make yourself feel good, haha.

 

[SP33Demon]

Yeah what was that? Clinton leads in the polling averages and has led in 9 of the last 10 polls collected by Pollster.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

Glad to see you're still cherry picking data to make yourself feel good, haha.

Wrong, RCP says Trump has won the last 2 polls. Here's a tissue.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Clinton (Big down arrow) +3.3. Will be hilarious to see how you spin things when that plus soon turns into a minus. The Hilldog is dropping like a rock. Abort, abort!

 

[fskimospy]

Wrong, RCP says Trump has won the last 2 polls. Here's a tissue.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Clinton (Big down arrow) +3.3. Will be hilarious to see how you spin things when that plus soon turns into a minus. The Hilldog is dropping like a rock. Abort, abort!

And RCP and Pollster have different poll sets they are reporting. I am so shocked that you chose whatever told you more of what you wanted to hear.

If you're excited about polling averages that say your candidate is losing that's great! Your continuing attempts to puff out your chest just make you look insecure.

 

[buckshot24]

And RCP and Pollster have different poll sets they are reporting. I am so shocked that you chose whatever told you more of what you wanted to hear.

Isn't that exactly what you did?

 

[SP33Demon]

And RCP and Pollster have different poll sets they are reporting. I am so shocked that you chose whatever told you more of what you wanted to hear.

If you're excited about polling averages that say your candidate is losing that's great! Your continuing attempts to puff out your chest just make you look insecure.

You are ignoring the last 2 polls and your libtard website Huffpo did as well. RCP is way more bipartisan than Huffpo.

Face it, your shitty candidate is dropping like a rock in the polls and has lost the 2 most recent. Soon Mr. Trump will be ahead in the majority of them as Sanders continues to win in states that can actually vote. She can't even beat a socialist old man! hahaha. Imagine what will happen when Trump is done with her. She will be the next chewtoy on the menu, Trump got bored with the previous 17.

 

[Exophase]

That seems to be an extremely unlikely scenario IMO. I can't picture a third party candidate that would actually outright win any state, much less a vital one.

Normally it'd be basically impossible but it'd be more likely than the usual third party candidates if it's a someone very well known like Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan defecting from a major party. And if hundreds of millions of dollars were spent in negative campaigning targeting just those states. It's also possible Bernie could hypothetically win a few states he did well in with the right campaigning (not swing states), but that's moot since he'd never run.

It really wouldn't be comparable to something like Ross Perot's presidency attempt. But still a huge longshot that'll probably not be attempted.

 

[SP33Demon]

CNN just put the Fox poll on their front page. w00t
http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/19/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-fox-news-poll/index.html

Washington (CNN) &#8212; Donald Trump holds a slight lead over Hillary Clinton -- 45% to 42% -- among registered voters, according to a new national Fox News poll.

The lead is within the poll's 3-point margin of error, but could reflect growing support for the presumptive Republican nominee as the likely Democratic nominee, Clinton, remains mired in a contentious primary fight with rival Bernie Sanders.

Trump's standing in the poll, released Wednesday, shows an improvement for the billionaire businessman from a Fox national poll in April showing Clinton on top, 48% to 41%.

BRB, going to masturbate.

 

[fskimospy]

You are ignoring the last 2 polls and your libtard website Huffpo did as well. RCP is way more bipartisan than Huffpo.

Face it, your shitty candidate is dropping like a rock in the polls and has lost the 2 most recent. Soon Mr. Trump will be ahead in the majority of them as Sanders continues to win in states that can actually vote. She can't even beat a socialist old man! hahaha. Imagine what will happen when Trump is done with her. She will be the next chewtoy on the menu, Trump got bored with the previous 17.

You are trying way too hard, it just makes you look insecure.

 

[buckshot24]

Normally it'd be basically impossible but it'd be more likely than the usual third party candidates if it's a someone very well known like Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan defecting from a major party. And if hundreds of millions of dollars were spent in negative campaigning targeting just those states. It's also possible Bernie could hypothetically win a few states he did well in with the right campaigning (not swing states), but that's moot since he'd never run.

It really wouldn't be comparable to something like Ross Perot's presidency attempt. But still a huge longshot that'll probably not be attempted.

I guess Romney could win Utah which could make an EC difference in a close race.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

BRB, going to masturbate.

Probably the most truthful thing you've ever posted here. Go rub one out while dreaming of drumpf

Make his finger brown again!

 

[SP33Demon]

You are trying way too hard, it just makes you look insecure.

Your candidate is on a downward slope while mine is on a skyrocketing trajectory. Just take it on the chin like a man. The insults only show you are actually the one insecure. Time to man up, eski. I understand life can be tough and will tell you things you don't like to hear, but the facts are the facts. They are unchangeable.

 

[fskimospy]

Your candidate is on a downward slope while mine is on a skyrocketing trajectory. Just take it on the chin like a man. The insults only show you are actually the one insecure. Time to man up, eski. I understand life can be tough and will tell you things you don't like to hear, but the facts are the facts. They are unchangeable.

So to be clear, the person who just called people 'shitty' and 'libtards' thinks that insulting people is the sign of someone being insecure.

lol. Nice self ownage.

 

[buckshot24]

November is a long way away. I'm not going to do Poll Dancing in May.

 

[theeedude]

These polls are pretty meaningless until Bernie drops out. Yes, Trump will get his 40%, and Hillary will get her 40%, the question is about the remaining 20%. The question is who are the remaining 15-20% who prefer "other candidate" are going to pick once that "other candidate" is not in the race. And it's most likely going to be Clinton or stay at home. I don't see Trump getting more than a small minority of Sanders supporters.