Rand Paul/Peter Schiff for President in 2012/2016?

[JMapleton]

Ron Paul's son, if anyone hasn't noticed, has pretty much got the Kentucky Senate race under lock:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rand_Paul
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky,_2010

I don't know if Peter Schiff is going to win in CT, but I certain would like him to. Peter Schiff was Ron Paul's economic adviser and a popular money manager and financial news commentator.

With the poor candidates the Republican party has to offer currently, will the Ron Paul Revolution live on through these two guys? Once we can get Rand Paul some experience in office and make a name for himself, we can get Paul and Schiff in the national spotlight and maybe we can salvage this country from collapsing economically from dangerous money printing politicians.

 

[StageLeft]

If Schiff became VP he'd immediately cancel everything in the federal budget and spend all the money on gold.

 

[yllus]

Ron Paul had an economic adviser? Never would have guessed.

 

[totalnoob]

Sounds great to me. I don't think they have a hope of getting a small government agenda through..but if they aim to reduce federal spending by 90% and only achieve 20% in a compromise, that will still be a huge victory.

 

[halik]

Ron Paul had an economic adviser? Never would have guessed.

Seconded.

Also you're NOT an economist just because econ was your major in undergrad.

But more to the core of the point, I thought Ron Paul folks would STFU already, since we're not in great depression and there's no Wiemar republic hyperinflation... both of which they predicted.

 

[JMapleton]

But more to the core of the point, I thought Ron Paul folks would STFU already, since we're not in great depression and there's no Wiemar republic hyperinflation... both of which they predicted.

Both of those predictions are long term predictions and will most likely occur within the next 15 years unless a dramatic change takes place.

 

[RyanPaulShaffer]

If Schiff became VP he'd immediately cancel everything in the federal budget and spend all the money on gold.

BUY GOLD NOW! Use the promo code Schiff.

Your post made me LOL because it made me think of all those BUY GOLD commercials that I heard on the radio.

To the OP: who? It's going to take a superstar to win the White House in 2012, and two nobodies ain't gonna cut it.

 

[StageLeft]

BUY GOLD NOW! Use the promo code Schiff.

Your post made me LOL because it made me think of all those BUY GOLD commercials that I heard on the radio.

To the OP: who? It's going to take a superstar to win the White House in 2012, and two nobodies ain't gonna cut it.

Unusued jewelry? TURN IT INTO CASH NOW $$$ ! With the recent run-up in gold prices and some experts calling for $4000/ounce there has never been a better time to turn your unwanted rings, earrings, and necklaces into CASH NOW $$$ !

 

[RyanPaulShaffer]

Unusued jewelry? TURN IT INTO CASH NOW $$$ ! With the recent run-up in gold prices and some experts calling for $4000/ounce there has never been a better time to turn your unwanted rings, earrings, and necklaces into CASH NOW $$$ !

Gold has increased over 9000% in the last year alone! Use promo code GLENN!

LOL! Thanks...this made my day.

 

[Thump553]

* * * *
I don't know if Peter Schiff is going to win in CT* * * *

I know-he has a snowball's chance in hell. He's a nutjob competing against a savy businesswoman (with all the wrestling dollars at her beck and call) and against Rob Simmons, a highly respected former GOP Congressman. Peter Schiff will be the little noticed crank at the third podium during GOP debates.

Whichever gets nominated (with the possible exception of Simmons) will be crushed by Richard Blumenthal, the probable Dem nominee.

Sorry to deflate your balloon.

 

[Siddhartha]

I hope they run.

 

[yllus]

Both of those predictions are long term predictions and will most likely occur within the next 15 years unless a dramatic change takes place.

Mr. Schiff himself says something different.

Peter Schiff: Hyperinflation Risk High, Stocks Will Crater

In a recent interview with Money News, Peter Schiff, who predicted the current economic collapse a few years ago, sees the U.S. having double-digit inflation in the next two or three years.

Schiff, like Marc Faber, could see the US with Zimbabwe-style inflation, where the Zimbabweans bring barrels of money to pay for a loaf of bread.

He's not exactly been on the money (pun intended) about his past predictions either.

Peter Schiff Was Wrong

Schiff's Overall Thesis

* US Equity Markets Will Crash.
* US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation).
* Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown.
* Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy.

Schiff was correct about point number 1 above. The US equity markets crashed. That was a very good call. Unfortunately, his investment thesis centered on shorting the dollar in a hyperinflation bet, and buying foreign equities rather than shorting US equities.

Furthermore, Schiff made no allowances for being wrong and had no exit strategy whatsoever.

What happened in 2008 was that foreign equities sold off much harder than US equities, and a strengthening US dollar compounded the situation.

In other words, Schiff failed where it matters most: Peter Schiff did not protect his client's assets.

...

An Actual Schiff Portfolio

The above statement is from a person who claims to have additional portfolios invested with Schiff over the past 2 years. In total (not just this portfolio), my contact says he invested $70,000 and is now down to $27,000. That is a loss of 61%.

I have talked with another person who claims to be down 72%, and many others who claim 40% or more.

 

[halik]

Both of those predictions are long term predictions and will most likely occur within the next 15 years unless a dramatic change takes place.

No,
both of those were immediate predictions when RP nuts were freaking about the TARP package to stabilize capital markets.

Why would there be hyperinflation further down the road, but not now? The money has been allocated and being spent already ("printed" as you like to say)?

There's a reason why the Austrian nonsense is a fringe and is not taken seriously in either academia or professional finance. It's simply wrong.

<- does economics and finance for living

 

[brencat]

Schiff is a complete wackjob and being in the business myself, I'd attribute his past call on the equity markets as "blind squirrel" luck more than a well thought out strategy. Anyone with any common sense and an unbiased view of the world could see years ago we had a huge housing and credit bubble that was going to pop and take the markets down -- and it finally happened in 2008.

We may have hyperinflation someday, but it isn't today and likely isn't tomorrow either.

In fact, my view is that we will have deflation well before we have inflation because everything that is going on right now, despite what looks like money printing, is actually contractionary -- banks are lending less, there is a negative social mood developing from chronic long term unemployment, oil and commodities have been getting crushed recently, gold is well off the high, the USD index broke out and is heading higher, market technicals point to a lower S&P near term, and massive uncertainty over regulation and taxes means businesses will be less aggressive in hiring.

I'd put a stop in on any long gold position ~ 100 - 101 and won't be surprised to see it drop back to 750ish if we have a deflation scenario unfold this year.

 

[JMapleton]

No,
both of those were immediate predictions when RP nuts were freaking about the TARP package to stabilize capital markets.

Why would there be hyperinflation further down the road, but not now? The money has been allocated and being spent already ("printed" as you like to say)?

There's a reason why the Austrian nonsense is a fringe and is not taken seriously in either academia or professional finance. It's simply wrong.

<- does economics and finance for living

Predictions by his supports, who are sometimes fanatical, are NOT indicative of his own predictions.

Hyper inflation will not occur until we get to a point we the US cannot pay back their debts and they are forced to print even more money than we are printing now.

Austrian school economics makes plenty of sense. It's important to have a sound currency. People who insist we do not need our currency backed by some form of hard assets say this because "in theory" we can keep a stable currency without it, but what they fail to factor in is that it's not realistic because government officials are incompetent and will use the ability to alter the amount of currency in supply for their own political purpose.

And because you are in the finance industry means nothing. Peter Schiff is also in the finance industry and he manages over a billion dollars.

Jim Rogers, who is the former partner of George Soros (the most successful hedge fund manager of all time), states the US will enter into very high inflationary periods in the future because of the actions of today. He also states gold is a great investment as well as any other hard assets. Most of what he says is the exact same as Schiff and Jim Rogers is a billionaire.

 

[JMapleton]

Schiff is a complete wackjob and being in the business myself, I'd attribute his past call on the equity markets as "blind squirrel" luck more than a well thought out strategy. Anyone with any common sense and an unbiased view of the world could see years ago we had a huge housing and credit bubble that was going to pop and take the markets down -- and it finally happened in 2008.

Armchair money manager are we? If it was so easy to predict the fall, why did so many not agree with Schiff in 06 and 07?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

I'd put a stop in on any long gold position ~ 100 - 101 and won't be surprised to see it drop back to 750ish if we have a deflation scenario unfold this year.

Peter Schiff who manages a billion dollars and Jim Rogers who himself has a billion dollars both are long for the long term on gold. Jim Rogers says if gold ever goes below $1000 again, buy it, because it will be the last time it goes below $1000 ever again in our lifetime.

 

[Turin39789]

Thanks for the reminder, need to remember to get my donation to Conway.

 

[bamacre]

Peter Schiff Was Wrong

One, the blog here is one year old. Two, he twisted Schiff's predictions and then argued against them, it's call "straw man." Three, since this blog post, foreign markets have risen much faster than the US market, the dollar has fallen, gold has gone up, and unemployment is still high.

 

[HeXploiT]

Rand won't run until Ron Paul is done. Ron Paul will announce soon.
FTR---Palin endorced Rand Paul. Interesting.

 

[halik]

Predictions by his supports, who are sometimes fanatical, are NOT indicative of his own predictions.

Hyper inflation will not occur until we get to a point we the US cannot pay back their debts and they are forced to print even more money than we are printing now.

Austrian school economics makes plenty of sense. It's important to have a sound currency. People who insist we do not need our currency backed by some form of hard assets say this because "in theory" we can keep a stable currency without it, but what they fail to factor in is that it's not realistic because government officials are incompetent and will use the ability to alter the amount of currency in supply for their own political purpose.

And because you are in the finance industry means nothing. Peter Schiff is also in the finance industry and he manages over a billion dollars.

Jim Rogers, who is the former partner of George Soros (the most successful hedge fund manager of all time), states the US will enter into very high inflationary periods in the future because of the actions of today. He also states gold is a great investment as well as any other hard assets. Most of what he says is the exact same as Schiff and Jim Rogers is a billionaire.

1) Explain how U.S. is currently printing money.

2) We had currency backed by a "hard asset" until about 1972. I suggest you look up why we don't have it anymore; it plays great into your argument of political influence

3) I have a great deal of respect for Soros (his reflexivity theory is dead on IMO), but Jim Rogers has been playing the Cramer card for the last decade (at "some point" we "may" see gold "over" $5000/oz... it's like listening to miss cleo).

Take a look at a chart of commodity purchasing power of gold (how much other "hard assets" can a unit of gold buy). If that thesis held water, you'd expect the ratio to be about the same, as inflation affects all commodities. That's not the case:

 

[lothar]

Rand won't run until Ron Paul is done. Ron Paul will announce soon.
FTR---Palin endorced Rand Paul. Interesting.

Did he accept the endorsement?
If so, then he's not a man of principles.

That's like Ron Paul accepting an endorsement from Bush or Kennedy.
It's not every endorsement that one must accept.

 

[lothar]

Peter Schiff is also in the finance industry and he manages over a billion dollars.

Why wasn't Peter Schiff able to transform his dire predictions into millions/billions of dollars in profit for himself and his fund holders?
I've been asking this question the past 1-2 years and never got an answer to it.
If he had all these dire predictions about the US economy either he wasn't really sure himself or he pulled a "Goldman"(ex: recommend "buy" on a security when they're actually selling and vice versa). If he did indeed truly believed his predictions, then clearly he did a diservice to his fund holders.

At the end of the day, it seems to me that Peter Schiff is all talk and no substance.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

 

[bamacre]

Why wasn't Peter Schiff able to transform his dire predictions into millions/billions of dollars in profit for himself and his fund holders?

Who says he hasn't? If he plans on putting "millions" of his dollars toward his senate election, then surely he has it. I dunno, he doesn't look poor.

 

[HeXploiT]

Did he accept the endorsement?
If so, then he's not a man of principles.

That's like Ron Paul accepting an endorsement from Bush or Kennedy.
It's not every endorsement that one must accept.

Lol ok. You don't reject endorsements. He did not however endorse her.
Nice try though.

 

[LegendKiller]

Who says he hasn't? If he plans on putting "millions" of his dollars toward his senate election, then surely he has it. I dunno, he doesn't look poor.

Good, more money wasted. I live in CT and certainly won't be voting for him.


As far as your earlier points.


1. Schiff predicted the utter collapse of the dollar, but waffled on when. Obviously the dollar hasn't collapsed, his prediction was wrong and stupid.

2. Schiff predicted gold at thousands of dollars, yet again with no timeline, and he's still wrong.

3. International stocks have recovered barely above US stocks. Over a 10-year horizon, US stocks *STILL* beat international stocks, despite the wild ride. Schiff fails again.

4. Schiff and Rogers predicted something even more asinine than the first 3, a decoupling of the US economy from the world. Not only was this assumption flat-out wrong, but ludicrous at the same time.

5. Schiff (and Rogers) failed to protect his own clients from his own stupid viewpoints. The very fact that points 1-4 show he was wrong, only highlight how foolish he is in his objectivity of outlooks. He is an absolutist without timeline, and thus, like you and your ilk, fail to consider all possibilities and the probability of those possibilities. Schiff's main hiding point was that he is not a money manager, merely a broker. However, he gives out investment advice and does it quite poorly. He has clients, those people pay him money to "broker" investments and give investment advice. He has given quite poor advice.



Quite frankly, it isn't surprising somebody like the OP believes in this tomfoolery. He's also the one who believes that looking in a rearview mirror tells you where you'll be going. Of course, he's also a billionaire with a high-speed trading platform so his "technical trading" is on the same apex of high-speed trading at the top investment firms. Naturally he's exceeded benchmarks by 300-400%.


Hey OP, do you want to send me your investment performance using GIPS compliant presentations? I'd love to see how great (shitty) you've done.