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Ramifications if Tesla takes the L and goes away...

brainhulk

brainhulk

Diamond Member
To me, Tesla was the responsible party that lit the fire under big auto to develop serious full electric cars.

If Tesla fails, do you think big auto will pull the plug on it's investments into fully electric vehicles?

(Did I use "take the L" correctly?)
 
Ichinisan said:
There's talk of Apple buying Tesla, and that would make a lot of sense.
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Please God no. Then they would expect 1 button to perform every function "because it's easier". I'd want to throw the car out the window like every iOS device they currently have.
 
Moot post. Tesla soon will rule the world. Short sellers mafia is irrelevant. China will and has consumed everything EV, especially Teslas. Europe buys their Model 3 like hot cakes.

Once people (US) realize that they pay 14 trillion per year to subsidize oil/gas they will change too.

Mark this post.
 
rh71 said:
Please God no. Then they would expect 1 button to perform every function "because it's easier". I'd want to throw the car out the window like every iOS device they currently have.
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That would be one button more than Telsa currently offers. 😛
 
bigi said:
Moot post. Tesla soon will rule the world. Short sellers mafia is irrelevant. China will and has consumed everything EV, especially Teslas. Europe buys their Model 3 like hot cakes.

Once people (US) realize that they pay 14 trillion per year to subsidize oil/gas they will change too.

Mark this post.
Click to expand...
You forgot the sarcasm tags.
 
rh71 said:
Please God no. Then they would expect 1 button to perform every function "because it's easier". I'd want to throw the car out the window like every iOS device they currently have.
Click to expand...

Tesla is already going the minimalist route, where you basically need to use the touch screen or thumb wheel on the steering wheel to control everything.

They also make it hard as hell for third parties to service the car, so their mentality seems seems to match Apple pretty closely. Maybe Apple should buy them and put Elon Musk in charge of the combined company. If they did, we'll get promises of Apple Stores in space by 2020 🙂
 
Automakers are under a number of pressures that basically make electrification (either PHEV or full EV) required. Tighter EU environmental rules and the continuing fallout from the diesel fraud plus the Chinese mandates on EVs means it can't be ignored even absent Tesla. In the US the CARB markets are likely to continue tightening their rules no matter what the Feds do.

If Tesla did end up truly on the ropes I'd expect them to be bought quickly by either a major tech company or GM/Ford.
 
electric cars are here to stay. tesla or not. they need to figure out the quality issues and their terrible customer service systems if they are going to survive long term. I think Musk should focus on space-x and leave the running of tesla to someone who will stop over promising and under delivering on quality and service.
 
In a word, no.

Look at Ford, just gave Rivian a boatload of money. That's the company I've been watching, not so much Tesla.
 
Ichinisan said:
There's talk of Apple buying Tesla, and that would make a lot of sense.
Click to expand...
Huh, Apple has zero competency in auto manufacturing, which is Tesla's core problem. I think this makes very little sense. Furthermore, Apple has always stayed away from big acquisitions because they know how difficult integrating a large corporation is. Historically, most of their deals are pretty small by M&A standards. Apple is essentially buying the IP and the engineers in most cases. At the time, the Beats acquisition for $3B was the largest they had ever made. I didn't really "get it" but you could argue "consumer electronics" play and for Apple, a $3B mistake is basically loose change in the couch cushions.

Toyota would make tons of sense. Besides hybrid drivetrains, they have not invested much in zero emissions or autonomous driving. They are the gold standard in manufacturing and quality control, and should whip Tesla into shape.

But the irony is that Elon thinks his company will one day be worth $500B. So it's more likely that he would ultimately panic sell for $8B than it is for him to take a reasonable offer like $50B (anything larger than that and you have very few available suitors, esp. once a recession hits). I'd argue that only Toyota, GM and VW group have the size to acquire Tesla straight up. But GM is furiously belt-tightening and VW group absorbed massive financial sanctions from Dieselgate.
 
Newly manufactured petroleum powered ICE vehicles will not exist in 20-30 years. Regardless if Tesla exists or not.
 
sandorski said:
Newly manufactured petroleum powered ICE vehicles will not exist in 20-30 years. Regardless if Tesla exists or not.
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Unless there is a breakthrough in battery technology within the next 20 years that dramatically lowers the cost or greatly extends the range of them, I doubt it.
 
ultimatebob said:
Unless there is a breakthrough in battery technology within the next 20 years that dramatically lowers the cost or greatly extends the range of them, I doubt it.
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Range isn't as big an issue as people make it out to be.

Anyway, maybe they can replace half the battery capacity with a bank of standardized modules that can be rapidly (and robotically) swapped at a station. The vehicle could draw from just a couple modules at a time when you're not driving aggressively. Then you'd only need to swap those partially-drained modules at the station (like topping-off a gas tank).
 
Lots of people still want EVs, and lots of people are waiting to buy one until they can get one from a real car company with quality control and good part support.
 
ultimatebob said:
Unless there is a breakthrough in battery technology within the next 20 years that dramatically lowers the cost or greatly extends the range of them, I doubt it.
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Incremental improvements have yielded huge results over time. Given the demand there is no reason to think it won't continue even if at lower levels.

Screen Shot 2019-05-24 at 5.31.34 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-05-24 at 5.31.44 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-05-24 at 5.31.51 PM.png
 
manly said:
20 years is an eternity. I've read about some promising battery research in recent years, although nothing has come to market yet.

https://www.bit-tech.net/news/tech/researchers-mix-graphene-and-sulphur-for-battery-breakthrough/1/
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I've been hearing about amazing battery technology that's going to replace Lithium Ion batteries for the past decade or so, but none of it has panned out yet. I'd love to be wrong, though... I've been waiting for a laptop with "real" all day battery life under heavy usage for years now.
 
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sandorski said:
No. This isn't a "Market" issue. Fossil Fuels are being legislated out of existence.
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I could see it happening in the EU, but not so much in the US. I'd imagine that the next Democratic president will try to pass 60 MPG fleet mileage standards (again), and the next Republican president after that will repeal those standards (again).
 
ultimatebob said:
I could see it happening in the EU, but not so much in the US. I'd imagine that the next Democratic president will try to pass 60 MPG fleet mileage standards (again), and the next Republican president after that will repeal those standards (again).
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It will happen in the US.
 
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