Ramifications if Tesla takes the L and goes away...

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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
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lol was wondering. Some weird glitch.

But yeah even 50 one way seems crazy to me, don't know how people live like that. It's time you'll never get back and that you don't get paid for.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,849
2,806
136
50 one way, not 100, but yes, it is very common. Many people prefer not to live in CA, NY, or FL. mmon.
I call BS.

The average commute for a U.S. worker is a little under 30 minutes one way. As of a few years ago, less than 10% of workers had an hour-long commute:
https://www.creditdonkey.com/commute-statistics.html

In most places, 50 miles maps pretty closely to 1 hour travel time.* 10% of the population is NOT negligible, but not something I would call very common. Long commutes have been trending upwards as workers in high population areas have been priced out of housing near employment.

* Considering rush hour, it would take significantly more than an hour in population centers. But that only strengthens my argument that 50 mile commutes are relatively uncommon.
 

ImpulsE69

Lifer
Jan 8, 2010
14,946
1,077
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All depends where you live. Where i live it is very common. Lower population density sure, but it is still the majority in the area. As I stated, not in the high population density areas where many people don't even drive. You can't really lump them all together and call it a day.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,136
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To be honest, it seemed like most of the auto industry wasn't moving all that fast to meet the "black man's" CAFE fuel mileage standards even when he was in office, mostly because they knew that they were impossible to achieve without converting most of their product line over to hybrids and electric cars by 2025. Instead, they were building the minimum required percentage of hybrid and electric cars required by law at the time.

Don't forget... for every auto engineer working on the next Tesla Model 3, there is still another engineer working on the next 12 MPG Dodge Hellcat :)

I feel pretty confident that I'll be able to go to my local dealership and buy a new gas powered vehicle in 2039. Feel free to quote me on that, just in case Anandtech Forums is still around then:)

With any luck, we'll all be sustained on Twinkies and the radiated corpses of our families by then!

.....Hellcats and Demons and such. I mean, they make and sell how many of those per year? a couple thousand tops? These aren't cars that really figure into any kind of real numbers. When you look at 3-years-ago tech in the La Ferrari with all of the heat and kinetic energy harvesting and recycling (a 1000hp engine that gets ~24mpg? holy shitburgers!!!), that has already made it's way to and been surpassed by a car that's ~1/10th the price and actually street legal (the NSX), and is probably going to just become cheaper and more standard for fleet cars, one can easily imagine how all of these goals are met. Petrol doesn't have to go away completely, but cutting it's need to 1/100th or 1/1000th of what it was 10 years ago would be massive.

..remember how "power steering!" was all fancy and reserved for supercars of the time? Yeah, me neither...but it was.

As always, when it comes to the inevitable problems with endless gridlock. fuel efficiency and expense, I always remind myself that tech today is not tech 10 years from now, when all these horrible things are supposed to happen. Of course what I mean by that is that I am thinking about horse shit.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,136
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146
Tesla is a zero dollar stock within 3 years. Shareholders will get the shaft someone will get the scraps. If I was Apple I would wait till they go bankrupt and then get the pieces for pennies on the dollar. Only a fool will pay top dollar for a money losing company.

I imagine that, more than the cars, the massive delay to their solar shingles really stings. That's the sort of the tech that, if actually physical and installable ~2 years ago when they promised it, could have really made a splash.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,457
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As much as I think solar shingles are a dumb idea compared to traditional panels, I think it would indeed take off if they actually had them available. It's a niche thing that a lot of people would ohhh and ahhh over. If anything they would be good for HOAs as most of them don't allow solar so it would be a way to hide it better. The tricky part is ensuring that they do not become aware that they are solar shingles or they'll force you to rip them all out. So it is a risk.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,704
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Do people seriously drive that far from home every day?! That seems completely insane and inefficient to me. I would rather put a gun to my head than do that.

And I get annoyed when there is slow traffic and it takes me more than 5 minutes to get to work. :p

My typical commute is between one to two hours, but I visit clients all over the state. Sometimes it's a short drive, but I'm stuck in traffic for an hour. Autopilot would be awesome! I don't have a garage for a charger at the moment, however.

If Tesla goes bankrupt, they'll get bought up in a second. I don't really see that happening though...they're in a dicey situation, but they've got too much momentum to fail, I think. I'd imagine their self-driving tech will make their stock easily worth 5x five to ten years from now...
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
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Actually I heard EVs require a garage to charge in, is that really the case? My goal would be to keep it parked outside, is the charge port waterproof even when it's open? I have a tiny garage that's not worth using for a car, I'm converting it to a shop instead. I'd probably just use the 120v option and install a dedicated outlet, but maybe I'd do the 240v option and just setup some kind of booth type structure for the charger so it's safe from elements.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,704
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Actually I heard EVs require a garage to charge in, is that really the case? My goal would be to keep it parked outside, is the charge port waterproof even when it's open? I have a tiny garage that's not worth using for a car, I'm converting it to a shop instead. I'd probably just use the 120v option and install a dedicated outlet, but maybe I'd do the 240v option and just setup some kind of booth type structure for the charger so it's safe from elements.

You can use it outdoors. My buddy only has a driveway, no garage, so he literally installed his at his front door & just plugs in when he gets home, then walks inside the house! For example, this Tesla charger is rated for outdoor use:

https://shop.tesla.com/us/en/product/vehicle-accessories/gloss-black-wall-connector.html

Unfortunately, I only have an assigned parking space, no garage or front-door access, so no place to put a charger because there's no power available :(
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,704
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Actually I heard EVs require a garage to charge in, is that really the case? My goal would be to keep it parked outside, is the charge port waterproof even when it's open? I have a tiny garage that's not worth using for a car, I'm converting it to a shop instead. I'd probably just use the 120v option and install a dedicated outlet, but maybe I'd do the 240v option and just setup some kind of booth type structure for the charger so it's safe from elements.

Also if you get a Tesla, you can use summon & auto-park to fit your EV in the garage by itself, which is pretty cool! This is a 2-year-old video (the tech has gotten better), but you get the idea:

 

Ichinisan

Lifer
Oct 9, 2002
28,298
1,235
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Actually I heard EVs require a garage to charge in, is that really the case? My goal would be to keep it parked outside, is the charge port waterproof even when it's open? I have a tiny garage that's not worth using for a car, I'm converting it to a shop instead. I'd probably just use the 120v option and install a dedicated outlet, but maybe I'd do the 240v option and just setup some kind of booth type structure for the charger so it's safe from elements.
Rich installed his outside:


 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
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Good to know, so these are water/weather proof then? Good for -50's as well? Though we don't get those often anymore, -40 seems to be about as low as it gets, and the odd -45ish or so. I presume most EVs are smart enough to preheat the battery as well to prevent damage. Lithium ion batteries don't like to be discharged or charged in the cold.

What I really want though is a EV truck, there's a few prototypes like the Rivian, can't wait to see how those do. I can't afford any of those though but I still hope they do well, and that eventually they start to trickle down to the used market.

Actually looking at the accessories on the Tesla sites looks like they have various adapters including ones going to dryer plugs. What does the actual charger station do differently than just using an adapter? Ex: if I install a 240v outlet and plug into that. Or do all those adapters just downgrade to 15a 120v?
 

rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
4,410
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My typical commute is between one to two hours, but I visit clients all over the state. Sometimes it's a short drive, but I'm stuck in traffic for an hour. Autopilot would be awesome! I don't have a garage for a charger at the moment, however.

If Tesla goes bankrupt, they'll get bought up in a second. I don't really see that happening though...they're in a dicey situation, but they've got too much momentum to fail, I think. I'd imagine their self-driving tech will make their stock easily worth 5x five to ten years from now...

They aren’t even really the industry leader in self driving, GM has the best implementation so far and a lot of other companies are competitive. If they can’t start making money they’ll end up being the next Fisker.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,134
2,446
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I love the enthusiasm of the EV owners in this thread, but if you look at the top 10 list of best selling vehicles in the US only one of them is electric. Most of them are still trucks, too, which shows that your average vehicle purchaser doesn't really care about fuel economy.

I'm sure that $6 a gallon gas would fix that. Now that the US is a giant fracking machine, I don't see that happening anytime soon. We could turn the middle east into a giant smoking crater and still have a decent supply of dino juice for the next 20 years.
 

Ichinisan

Lifer
Oct 9, 2002
28,298
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136
I love the enthusiasm of the EV owners in this thread, but if you look at the top 10 list of best selling vehicles in the US only one of them is electric. Most of them are still trucks, too, which shows that your average vehicle purchaser doesn't really care about fuel economy.

I'm sure that $6 a gallon gas would fix that. Now that the US is a giant fracking machine, I don't see that happening anytime soon. We could turn the middle east into a giant smoking crater and still have a decent supply of dino juice for the next 20 years.
Fracking gets petroleum / crude oil that can be refined into gasoline? I thought it produces natural gas / methane or whatever.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,849
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Look at the base Tesla, under a hundred mile range. That's enough for
where did you read that? Are you talking about the first gen Tesla that would get ~30 minutes if you floored it for all of those 30 minutes, uphill all the way?

No idea what the fuck you are smoking otherwise.
I believe I read there is a soft-locked Model 3 sold in Canada with a super-low range. It has something to do with only low-cost BEVs qualify for their national subsidy. The equivalent of $35k US is too high to qualify, so Tesla created a lower SKU just to game the system.

Not sure if this is true, as Tesla is changing their sales tactics at least monthly.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,457
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www.anyf.ca
I love the enthusiasm of the EV owners in this thread, but if you look at the top 10 list of best selling vehicles in the US only one of them is electric. Most of them are still trucks, too, which shows that your average vehicle purchaser doesn't really care about fuel economy.

I'm sure that $6 a gallon gas would fix that. Now that the US is a giant fracking machine, I don't see that happening anytime soon. We could turn the middle east into a giant smoking crater and still have a decent supply of dino juice for the next 20 years.

Trucks have utility value, and there aren't really any obtainable EV trucks yet. EVs in general are also very niche, so I can see them not being that high on the list. The fact that any EV even shows up in top 10 is actually pretty good.

Oddly enough I'm kinda torn between getting a truck as my next vehicle as a truck would be nice, but I also kinda want an EV if I can find a used one for decent price, so I can be more green and no longer be at mercy of gas prices. 1 gallon is what, 3.8 litres? It's already at near $6/gal in lot of places. About $5.24 here. $1.38/litre. Only going to keep going up from there. It fluctuates up and down based on politics, but it always goes up more than it goes down. I remember when 9/11 happened, all the prices jumped above the 1 dollar mark and only seem them go lower for a few days at a time maybe once or twice, since. Gas prices are all politically determined, would be nice to just stop playing that game.

Unfortunately I could see the government either put a stop to EVs if they take off too much, or find a way to tax them more. The government makes lot of money off gas.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,457
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www.anyf.ca
I believe I read there is a soft-locked Model 3 sold in Canada with a super-low range. It has something to do with only low-cost BEVs qualify for their national subsidy. The equivalent of $35k US is too high to qualify, so Tesla created a lower SKU just to game the system.

Not sure if this is true, as Tesla is changing their sales tactics at least monthly.

TBH I would love this, even with the subsidies now gone. Doug Ford killed all of that pretty much the day he came into office, at least for Ontario. Not sure what the other provinces are doing these days.

I think a big cost in an EV is the battery, would love to see something like a small hatchback with say, a 50km range. Make the car like 10-15k with option to get more range at extra cost. Bet that would sell. Lot of people like me don't really drive all that much, they just go to work and back, maybe go do errands etc but always stay in town. Or they have two cars, so one car can be for in town and other for longer trips.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,136
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As much as I think solar shingles are a dumb idea compared to traditional panels, I think it would indeed take off if they actually had them available. It's a niche thing that a lot of people would ohhh and ahhh over. If anything they would be good for HOAs as most of them don't allow solar so it would be a way to hide it better. The tricky part is ensuring that they do not become aware that they are solar shingles or they'll force you to rip them all out. So it is a risk.

Well, I think the only reason an HOA would care about solar panels is because they stick out and those ninnies just don't want them on people's roofs. If that is really the only reason, then I'm not sure why you'd have to hide the fact that you have solar shingles, because that is a already a big selling factor for wanting the shingles. --basically, why would the HOA care that you are using solar power, all else being equal?

The shingles are only available in certain styles, but they are very common ones. I guess it could be a problem with the worst of the worst of HOAs that will only allow you to use a certain type of roof design, but that's probably only limited to those historic towns or hamlets or neighborhoods that have extremely strict codes governing what owners can do to their properties because they must be preserved as some sort of quaint midieval village.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
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TBH I would love this, even with the subsidies now gone. Doug Ford killed all of that pretty much the day he came into office, at least for Ontario. Not sure what the other provinces are doing these days.
No link to article, but to qualify for the BEV subsidy, the car has to start at less than $45k CAD. If options push the price up to $55k CAD, it will still qualify.

So Tesla made a fake base ("Standard" range) model to squeeze below the $45k CAD limit. I say fake because they aren't producing another hardware variant of the Model 3. This is strictly to game the subsidy rules, and I guarantee you they won't sell any of the lesser models. The real car config, known as the Standard range plus, is considered an option and thus it still qualifies for the subsidy.
I think a big cost in an EV is the battery, would love to see something like a small hatchback with say, a 50km range. Make the car like 10-15k with option to get more range at extra cost. Bet that would sell. Lot of people like me don't really drive all that much, they just go to work and back, maybe go do errands etc but always stay in town. Or they have two cars, so one car can be for in town and other for longer trips.
What you're describing is an off-lease first gen. Nissan Leaf.
 
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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
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Yeah... they did the same thing in the US. In theory, you can order a "$35,000" Model 3 if you contact Tesla directly, but who knows when it will actually ship. The real car starts at $39,900, and goes past $50,000 quickly once you get the options most Tesla owners actually want like extended range and self-driving.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,134
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What you're describing is an off-lease first gen. Nissan Leaf.

My understanding is that the reason the used higher mileage Nissan Leafs are so cheap is because the replacement battery for them is rather expensive.

I wonder if someone will do a cheaper OEM replacement battery for them at some point.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
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That's one thing I'm looking forward to is a used EV market. Will pick one up in a heart beat if I can get one under 10k. Not much here though, even new.