RAM / NAND Inflation

[lucas122478]

For the poor saps like myself that never got around to upgrading in the past few years I about hyperventilated when I came across today's costs for DDR4 and video cards. At some point either at the end of '16 or beginning of '17 I had written up a sticky note detailing the costs for:
2x8GB DDR4 3200 Trident Z RGB RAM ($153)
Samsung 960 EVO M.2 250GB ($135)
8GB Zotac 1080 GTX Mini ($520).

Today the prices for these same components in my country are:
2x8 GB DDR4 3200 Trident Z RGB RAM ($272)
Samsung 960 EVO M.2 250GB ($137)
8GB Zotac 1080 GTX Mini ($880)

An increase of $481 or more than 50%. I've been putting off making a new build for years. Every year I tell myself I'm going to do it but I put it off. I haven't put together a new build since 2011. I'm still using a 2nd generation intel and I'm surprised it's even lasted this long. I have this feeling that this year my computer may be on its last legs. I am a practical person and I just can't bring myself to paying these kind of prices; specifically with RAM & Video cards when it is quite possible the top 3 are intentionally artificially inflating the costs by not ramping up enough in production.

I really have multiple questions I would like to have addressed by the community. So there they go.

1. Speculative - What are your opinions on the costs of Video cards and RAM throughout '18? Do you suspect they will continue to go UP or do you think we are at the peak and the prices should decrease throughout this year?

2. For late adopters like myself that may be forced to upgrade this year - Should I go ahead with a new build and get 4 or 8GB of the cheapest ADATA or Kingston DDR4 RAM I can find? Or should I take it in the rear and pay the $200+ for the Trident Z I wanted to get to begin with?

3. I would love to eventually have everything in one nice package. In other words, I would have an UHDTV with HDMI 2.1 connected to an AVR with HDMI 2.1 and a HDMI 2.1 connection from the computers video card to the AVR, along with a PS4 Pro, XBOX, Switch connected to the AVR. But I'm a little confused with the specification. There's multiple articles stating not to buy AVRs or UHDTVs with HDMI 2.0 since it will not work with the 2.1 spec. However I came across a response in one place claiming that is not true and that all of the new specs in 2.1 will WORK with 2.0 as long as the manufacturer updates the controller and software in order to do so; except for 8K which will require the new connector. Can anyone confirm if this is true or not?

4. Keeping in mind with my expectations. Will the Ryzen 2.0 1600X equivalent be fine for this future path or should I go all out with a threadripper or starship when it is released? My biggest concerns fall in line with diminishing returns in speed and cost with value and most importantly costs associated with electricity as it is very expensive for electrical use.

5. With the costs of video cards thru the roof - is it going to be possible to snap up a pair of 2080s before their prices go through the roof - or will they automatically be selling for insane prices as they hit the market? I'm hoping the newer cards will be less hungry and easier on my electrical use.

 

[dullard]

A lot of it depends on what happens to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The coin "miners" are buying every cheap CPU, every video card, and almost all RAM faster than they can be produced. If you can even find parts in stock, they are much more expensive than they were a year ago. Manufacturers are cranking out the parts as fast as they possibly can and there are still shortages.

However, in the last few weeks cryptocurrencies have been plunging in value. For example, Bitcoin dropped 62% in value in the last 6 weeks. It has lost 10% just today.

If the cryptocurrency price drop continues, then not only will miners suddenly stop buying parts, they may actually start to sell their computers. Miners often have dozens, if not hundreds, of computers doing nothing of actual value other than burning electricity. Stopping buying at the same time they flood the market with used parts might be a 1-2 punch to cause prices of computer parts to plummet (especially if you are willing to buy heavily used components).

Or maybe cryptocurrency prices may recover.

 

[VirtualLarry]

A lot of it depends on what happens to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The coin "miners" are buying every cheap CPU, every video card, and almost all RAM faster than they can be produced.

Nice try blaming it all on miners, but coin-mining doesn't take a lot of RAM. Most of the RAM demand is going to smartphones. And miners only buy the lowest-end CPUs (unless it's a dual-purpose gaming / casual-mining rig). So that's not going to affect "gamer" CPU choices much either.

GPUs, yeah, miners want GPUs.

 

[aigomorla]

Nice try blaming it all on miners, but coin-mining doesn't take a lot of RAM. Most of the RAM demand is going to smartphones. And miners only buy the lowest-end CPUs (unless it's a dual-purpose gaming / casual-mining rig). So that's not going to affect "gamer" CPU choices much either.

GPUs, yeah, miners want GPUs.

thats because GPU makers are refusing to pump out video cards to milk as much cost / profit they can before this bubble implodes on themselves.

 

[Stuka87]

thats because GPU makers are refusing to pump out video cards to milk as much cost / profit they can before this bubble implodes on themselves.

AMD/nVidia are not making any extra money off this GPU shortage. Its all the retail places that are making the money. I am sure the AIB's may be inflating their costs some, but I think their agreements with AMD/nVidia prevent them from marking them up much.

 

[Asphodelus]

AMD/nVidia are not making any extra money off this GPU shortage. Its all the retail places that are making the money. I am sure the AIB's may be inflating their costs some, but I think their agreements with AMD/nVidia prevent them from marking them up much.

Still, it's possible that AMD/Nvidia (especialy Nvidia) are holding off on introducing new products in order to avoid another Hawaii-style implosion due to lack of supply crippling a product launch.

Better to just wait it out and let the miners have the old stuff while ramping up manufacturing and stockpiling the next gen so that there's wide availability up and down the entire product stack for the gaming market - which is critical for long-term success and market share well after the current mining cycle has gone bust - to purchase on launch day, than to release the next gen and have gamers complain about everything being out of stock in seconds.

Besides, AMD/Nvidia might not be making any extra money, but they're certainly not losing any money by sitting tight either.

 

[lucas122478]

We have miners here, but nowhere near as many as you will have in the states due to many factors.

Electrical rates currently run around 0.21 to 0.22 USD per KwH (The Philippines). Thankfully the exchange rate for the USD is higher than it has been in years. A few years ago electricity was a bit higher and with the exchange lower we were paying around 0.27 - 0.28 per KwH. Factor in that 99.9% of all homes here are strictly built from concrete and rebar with zero insulation, most of the miners are in metro manila where you are going to have the urban heat island effect and lastly we're near the equator in a tropical region - you're going to have to keep those computers cool and run air conditioning 24 / 7 and with their own heat being generated it just isn't worth it for most people.

A lot of the vendors claim the cards are being bought out by miners but I call BS and one in particular has been limiting selling GPUs to 2 per person and the way they deal business along with many others is they get your actual information (name, address, number) and / or they offer perks if you do so in the terms of getting discounts. No system is fool proof and of course there will always be ways around it but add to the complications, 12% VAT, 7% import tarriffs, the added annoyance to go around the system, and the horrendously low wages in the country, expensive electricity and poor infrastructure with zero insulation and it just doesn't add up that there would be that large of a market for miners. Lastly, toss in local economics - if you do have the disposable income to build a bunch of rigs to mine - it's more profitable to open up a net cafe (0.50 to 0.75 USD per hour for each rig )with that money than it is to mine and there is very few net cafes that are going to use video cards bigger than 1050 ti's in their net cafe's. Of course you can have the computer's mining when the net cafe isn't open but it still doesn't justify purchasing higher-end video cards (ie - 1080 Ti which cost $1100+ here.)

I checked on litecoin mining with a 1080 ti with the usage of electricity not counting air conditioning the profit margins are -70% per day based upon 250 watts usage and 32 M/hs. So I just don't see how its viable much less makes sense unless their stealing electricity, use solar, or live so far out in the province they receive free electricity because they are so far away from a power station that the meter readers won't go out there to read the meter (yes, that happens here. ) Here I am more inclined to believe we're simply being pounded in the rear over good old fashion price gouging from the retail companies and they can just blame it on miners as an excuse so their customer-base doesn't drag them outside and burn them at the stake.