Discussion Quo vadis Apple Macs - Intel, AMD and/or ARM CPUs? ARM it is!

[moinmoin]

Due to popular demand I thought somebody should start a proper thread on this pervasive topic. So why not do it myself?

For nearly a decade now Apple has treated their line of Mac laptops, AIOs and Pro workstations more of a stepchild. Their iOS line of products have surpassed it in market size and profit. Their dedicated Mac hardware group was dissolved. Hardware and software updates has been lackluster.

But for Intel Apple clearly is still a major customer, still offering custom chips not to be had outside of Apple products. Clearly Intel is eager to at all costs keep Apple as a major showcase customer.

On the high end of performance Apple's few efforts to create technological impressive products using Intel parts increasingly fall flat. The 3rd gen of MacPros going up to 28 cores could have wowed the audience in earlier years, but when launched in 2019 it already faced 32 core Threadripper/Epyc parts, with 64 core updates of them already on the horizon. A similar fate appears to be coming for the laptops as well, with Ryzen Mobile 4000 besting comparable Intel solutions across the board, with run of the mill OEMs bound to surpass Apple products in battery life. A switch to AMD shouldn't even be a big step considering Apple already has a close work relationship with them, sourcing custom GPUs from them like they do with CPUs from Intel.

On the low end Apple is pushing iPadOS into becoming a workable mutitasking system, with decent keyboard and, most recently, mouse support. Considering the much bigger audience familiar with the iOS mobile interface and App Store, it may make sense to eventually offer a laptop form factor using the already tweaked iPadOS.

By the look of all things Apple Mac products are due to continue stagnating. But just like for Intel, the status quo for Mac products feels increasingly untenable.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Running Darwin.

That just raises more questions.

 

[Ajay]

To be more specific, I'm talking about basic web browsing and email.

I believe the iPad Pro has a ~36 wh battery and offers 10 hours of battery life. However, Anandtech actually got 25 hours of battery life with basic web browsing: https://www.anandtech.com/show/13661/the-2018-apple-ipad-pro-11-inch-review/8

And that's with the 2018 version which used a SoC manufactured on the first-gen 7nm.

The Macbook Pro 16" has a 100 wh battery. Just extrapolating the numbers would yield 68 hours of basic web browsing. But of course, the Macbook will consume more power than the iPad Pro no matter what due to its size, active cooling, and beefier SoC.

I think 2 days of basic web browsing is realistic. Maybe Apple won't hit it with the first generation but I expect them to within the next 2-3 years for sure.

Well, Apple isn't going to start off with the 16" MacBook Pro - or, obviously, it 100 WH battery. Anyway, it'll be interesting to see what they do, if in fact the rumor pans out this time. The good news is that we'll see the A14 this year, so that should give us a good idea of what to expect from an upclocked version.

 

[amrnuke]

I use Sketch for work which is not available on Windows. MacOS supports every piece of software I need, while Windows does not. Of course, everyone is different.

As someone who does use a Mac, I have plenty of reasons to care about them.

Sketch is x86 program requiring Mojave, to port it over to iOS / ARM or whatever new macOS / ARM they're creating may go smoothly, may go poorly. We all remember Rosetta, right?

It may be the case that you're stuck on an x86 version of macOS for a while unless the transition goes smoothly.

I certainly hope that's not the case - the last thing we need in this arms race is for one side to falter.

Apple's success in laptops and desktops is all of our success, IMO, because it'll push AMD, Intel even harder.

Apple have the money to make this work, but I don't know that they have the multi-threaded experience at this point.

Have we heard about many hires or transfers of AMD / Intel people into Apple who could be helping out with such development?

 

[Hitman928]

Sketch is x86 program requiring Mojave, to port it over to iOS / ARM or whatever new macOS / ARM they're creating may go smoothly, may go poorly. We all remember Rosetta, right?

It may be the case that you're stuck on an x86 version of macOS for a while unless the transition goes smoothly.

I certainly hope that's not the case - the last thing we need in this arms race is for one side to falter.

Apple's success in laptops and desktops is all of our success, IMO, because it'll push AMD, Intel even harder.

Apple have the money to make this work, but I don't know that they have the multi-threaded experience at this point.

Have we heard about many hires or transfers of AMD / Intel people into Apple who could be helping out with such development?

Apple has hired a lot of really good talent from multiple teams over the years. From what I hear, Apple's CPU design team is top notch.

 

[soresu]

But proves a point that there are differences in performance between platforms that are not related to compilers.

Even among Linux distros there is significant perf delta.

 

[soresu]

Running Darwin.

That just raises more questions.

I think he may be pulling your leg a bit.

"Darwin forms the core set of components upon which macOS (previously OS X and Mac OS X), iOS, watchOS, tvOS, and iPadOS are based. "

From the Wikipedia page on Darwin.

Though I'd be inclined to think that they mean this in the same way that all Linux + Android distros use the Linux kernel (at the moment, though I'm inclined to believe that in the future Android may switch to running Zircon/Magenta as it essentially becomes Fuchsia in all but name).

 

[DrMrLordX]

@soresu

Performance on MacOS seems kind of . . . well we'll see how these new chips turn out on whatever the OS is officially called in 2021.

 

[soresu]

@soresu

Performance on MacOS seems kind of . . . well we'll see how these new chips turn out on whatever the OS is officially called in 2021.

To be honest I'm about as far from an Apple fan as it is possible to be.

The one university module where I was required to use Macs for sound work was miserable, much more so than using Raspbian Linux on my R Pi which generally requires a healthy dose of technical skill to navigate compared to Windows.

Fuchsia interests me though, Google have had a long time to meditate on the failures, foibles and general problem points of Android, so it will be very interesting to see what comes out of it, both for general performance and UI designs considering the Escher renderer found at the beginning was PBR graphics oriented, so likely true 3D UI's are in the pipeline - though like VR will be the main beneficiary there.

 

[dacostafilipe]

Anyway, even just the core count tells us quite a bit. 8 big cores means they're thinking of forcefully removing Intel from everything short of the full Mac Pro IMO. Per core performance of Apple's big cores is more than enough for that.

Going from the actual 4x4 (big x little) to a 8x4 design is simple basic logic, does not sound like a new revelation to me.

If I'm saying (aka predicting) that the next iPhone will have a 4x4 design, would that shock a lot of people here? Don't think so.

My posts may sound pessimistic about this, but I'm a Mac guy. I'm writing this on a Mac Mini (6 cores) next to a Macbook Pro 16 and I have an older Mac Pro (6c, cheese grader) under my desk next to the gaming PC. We only use Macs at work, with a mix of iMacs, Minis, Macbook Pros and Mac Pros (Trashcan).

I just started working when Apple made the Intel migration and I remember how bad Rosetta was. If possible, I want to avoid a similar experience, where your new Intel based Mac would struggle to run Macromedia Fireworks because of the emulation Layer. But one has to admire how fast Apple made the transition to x86. In little more than a year, you had Macbooks, iMacs and Mac Pros running Intel CPUs with amazing performance (except Rosetta) and great battery life.

Could you guys see Apple migrating to all ARM in the same time?

Will the new ARM SoC performance be enough to handle the x86 emulation layer?

Will they have ARM SoC that could fit into a Mac Pro for 2021?

Until all those questions can be answered with yes, I don't think an ARM migration will happen that fast ... I don't hope it will happen that fast.

*mic drop*

 

[mikegg]

Sketch is x86 program requiring Mojave, to port it over to iOS / ARM or whatever new macOS / ARM they're creating may go smoothly, may go poorly. We all remember Rosetta, right?

It may be the case that you're stuck on an x86 version of macOS for a while unless the transition goes smoothly.

I'm not too worried. Sketch is literally only available for macOS. The developers will put all their resources to make the transition smooth because... Sketch is their entire revenue stream.

 

[mikegg]

Running MacOS or iOS?

MacOs... I don't understand this question. We're talking about Macs using ARM processors so of course I was referring to MacOS.

 

[mikegg]

Well, Apple isn't going to start off with the 16" MacBook Pro - or, obviously, it 100 WH battery. Anyway, it'll be interesting to see what they do, if in fact the rumor pans out this time. The good news is that we'll see the A14 this year, so that should give us a good idea of what to expect from an upclocked version.

Earlier in this thread, you didn't believe Ming-Chi Kuo's report that Apple will release ARM Macs in 2021. You said he was just speculating.

Now, this Bloomberg article is citing the same Ming-Chi Kuo again and you suddenly believe it? Come on man.

Ming-Chi Kuo isn't a random Youtuber spreading fake rumors.

As for the battery life, A 13" Macbook Pro will have a smaller battery but a less powerful SoC as well so battery life should be close. I maintain that 1-2 day battery life is expected across all future ARM Macbooks.

 

[DrMrLordX]

MacOs... I don't understand this question. We're talking about Macs using ARM processors so of course I was referring to MacOS.

I ask for multiple important reasons. To date, Apple has never exposed their in-house CPUs to an OS environment that would permit non-App Store software to run on it (except in the case of a developer that wants to compile binaries that only last 7 days). Also, MacOS performance on Intel hardware seems to be inferior to Win10 performance for the same hardware running the same software (notably Geekbench).

 

[chrisjames61]

I ask for multiple important reasons. To date, Apple has never exposed their in-house CPUs to an OS environment that would permit non-App Store software to run on it (except in the case of a developer that wants to compile binaries that only last 7 days). Also, MacOS performance on Intel hardware seems to be inferior to Win10 performance for the same hardware running the same software (notably Geekbench).

Bloomberg News, didn't they trash SuperMicro and spread some serious FUD and absolutely nothing came of it? I don't doubt this is going to happen but I think Bloomberg News deserves some skepticism.

 

[amrnuke]

I'm not too worried. Sketch is literally only available for macOS. The developers will put all their resources to make the transition smooth because... Sketch is their entire revenue stream.

Agree, that will obviously be a must. With Catalyst it should be quicker/easier.

Apple has hired a lot of really good talent from multiple teams over the years. From what I hear, Apple's CPU design team is top notch.

I am certain they have, I was just wondering if there were any big names or big Intel / AMD losses over the years that I may recognize.

 

[chrisjames61]

Apple stole Mark Papermaster from IBM and bought Palo Alto Semiconductor and Jim Keller came along. That is how they got a real jump start in cpu development and moved so quickly.

 

[Doug S]

Big Apple cores can easily use 5-7W each on their own if you stress them with a proper load. They don't on mobile because you can't cool 5-7W there, but in a laptop form factor that's not an issue. With 8 cores that's easily 40+W.

What do you base this statement on? If that was true, iPhones would draw 10-14W just from the two big cores when running multicore tasks/benchmarks, and that doesn't even include draw from DDR, GPU etc. It isn't capable of delivering that amount of power to the SoC, so your statement is obviously false.

Saying "they don't on mobile" you're basically saying that although they have never been observed drawing that much power, I know that they can. Sure, if you crank up the clock rate they'll draw more power, but who says they would do that for a Mac? Certainly they wouldn't for an 8 core Mac laptop, because you can't cool 40W+ in a laptop without a noisy fan.

 

[amrnuke]

What do you base this statement on? If that was true, iPhones would draw 10-14W just from the two big cores when running multicore tasks/benchmarks, and that doesn't even include draw from DDR, GPU etc. It isn't capable of delivering that amount of power to the SoC, so your statement is obviously false.

Saying "they don't on mobile" you're basically saying that although they have never been observed drawing that much power, I know that they can. Sure, if you crank up the clock rate they'll draw more power, but who says they would do that for a Mac? Certainly they wouldn't for an 8 core Mac laptop, because you can't cool 40W+ in a laptop without a noisy fan.

My 11 Pro gets hot enough to almost make me put it down, just running video chats. I'd hate to see what it would do drawing 10-14 W!

 

[ThatBuzzkiller]

Apple's success in laptops and desktops is all of our success, IMO, because it'll push AMD, Intel even harder.

Apple have the money to make this work, but I don't know that they have the multi-threaded experience at this point.

Have we heard about many hires or transfers of AMD / Intel people into Apple who could be helping out with such development?

Apple's success comes from their hardware, not from their software. You cannot sustain a platform with just high-end hardware but you need high-end software as well. Apple's software quality has went down overtime and if their user's were given an option many of them would rather opt-in to use either Windows or Google Services instead of what Apple was offering ...

Who cares about how many CPU designers Apple has ? What I want to know is if whether or not Apple are willing to spend their entire treasury on hiring more programmers which is what truly counts. if Apple truly believes that ARM had a fundamental advantage against x86 systems then they would show it by getting more low-level coding prodigies to work for them. Low-level programming will trump the vast majority of assumptions in hardware design when it comes to the real world. Optimizing software stack is becoming more important than optimizing the hardware stack yet Apple refuses to release their CPU documentation unlike AMD or Intel so how can programmers hope to optimize specifically for Apple CPUs ?

Consumers shouldn't have to settle for mediocrity like Xcode, Final Cut Pro X, iCloud or a lack of real alternatives altogether. If Apple has the money like you say they do then they should spend it on porting every productivity software or making new software that's more productive on ARM systems. You don't convince professionals with more battery life, you convince them by offering higher productivity and if Apple won't do this they don't deserve replace x86 systems since their overall total value are still lower with ARM based systems.

 

[Doug S]

My 11 Pro gets hot enough to almost make me put it down, just running video chats. I'd hate to see what it would do drawing 10-14 W!

I have an 11 Pro Max and I've never had it get beyond what I'd consider "slightly warm". Same with my 6S plus. My X on the other hand would get what I'd consider "quite hot" - like you say "hot enough to almost make me want to put it down". My 5 would get "moderately hot" but not as hot as the X.

Maybe the max/plus size phones stay so cool (at least in my experience) because they have a bit more mass to distribute out the heat? I wouldn't think a 15-20% difference would make that much difference but who knows.

When you are running video chats, are you on wifi or cellular? One thing I've found that will heat up just about any phone from any vendor is a lot of cellular traffic when you have only one or two bars.

 

[amrnuke]

I have an 11 Pro Max and I've never had it get beyond what I'd consider "slightly warm". Same with my 6S plus. My X on the other hand would get what I'd consider "quite hot" - like you say "hot enough to almost make me want to put it down". My 5 would get "moderately hot" but not as hot as the X.

Maybe the max/plus size phones stay so cool (at least in my experience) because they have a bit more mass to distribute out the heat? I wouldn't think a 15-20% difference would make that much difference but who knows.

When you are running video chats, are you on wifi or cellular? One thing I've found that will heat up just about any phone from any vendor is a lot of cellular traffic when you have only one or two bars.

It happens on Zoom on Wifi, and on Safari-based Doxy.me videoconferencing on Wifi and cellular.
But come to think of it, definitely worse on cellular.
That just baffles me, actually, from a technical standpoint.

 

[Ajay]

Earlier in this thread, you didn't believe Ming-Chi Kuo's report that Apple will release ARM Macs in 2021. You said he was just speculating.

Now, this Bloomberg article is citing the same Ming-Chi Kuo again and you suddenly believe it? Come on man.

Ming-Chi Kuo isn't a random Youtuber spreading fake rumors.

As for the battery life, A 13" Macbook Pro will have a smaller battery but a less powerful SoC as well so battery life should be close. I maintain that 1-2 day battery life is expected across all future ARM Macbooks.

Wow, my opinion evolved and I became more convinced over the course of this thread. How pathetic of me to be able to change my mind.
Why are you stating an expected 1-2 day battery life? Off of what rumor, data, or back of the napkin math?

Edit: Excellent! Somebody voted down my 'answer' that isn't even an answer. Social media features FTW.

 

[jpiniero]

Who cares about how many CPU designers Apple has ? What I want to know is if whether or not Apple are willing to spend their entire treasury on hiring more programmers which is what truly counts. if Apple truly believes that ARM had a fundamental advantage against x86 systems then they would show it by getting more low-level coding prodigies to work for them. Low-level programming will trump the vast majority of assumptions in hardware design when it comes to the real world. Optimizing software stack is becoming more important than optimizing the hardware stack yet Apple refuses to release their CPU documentation unlike AMD or Intel so how can programmers hope to optimize specifically for Apple CPUs ?

Low level is exactly what Apple doesn't want. They want code to be Apple specific but arch neutral.

 

[ThatBuzzkiller]

Low level is exactly what Apple doesn't want. They want code to be Apple specific but arch neutral.

Which begs the question of why are they so afraid of converging on hardware design ? Does Apple actually have any long-term plans with the ARM ISA like AMD/Intel does for x86 or do they intend to ditch ARM once they get the chance to implement relatively modern x86 because many of the patents have expired ?

AMD and Intel made their peace with the x86 and it's extensions but in return programmers pay tribute by doing low-level optimizations of their software for x86 which is ultimately how enterprise converged to using the x86 ISA.

Apple's future of more high-level code, more compilers, and having more virtual machines is irreconcilable with PCs where their future is going to be more lower-level code, more bypassing of the compilers, and more native bytecode execution. If that is truly Apple's intention then must have distorted notions of how things actually work among professional software community and that AVX-512 will inevitably proliferate faster within the industry than what any ARM based system can hope to do ...

 

[avAT]

Which begs the question of why are they so afraid of converging on hardware design ?

Apple will move to whatever ISA/manufacturer they believe will allow them to build the products they want to build. If someone else is consistently delivering impressive performance at the TDP(s) they’re looking for a decade from now, they’ll switch again.