Quick probablity question

[Cattlegod]

I'm writing a case up right now and am trying to dig back into my cobwebs of probability:

If you have a 57% chance of something working one way, and a 45% chance of it working another, what is the overall chance of it working assuming both paths are pursued?

 

[videogames101]

100-57 = 43% failure on the first attempt.

.45 * 43 = 19.35 (45% of the 43% of failure will succeed)

57+19.35 = 76.35% overall success rate




Something like that.



(btw, don't change the numbers after you post them, cause I may have looked like an idiot there for a second using 72% as the second chance of success...

 

[Legendary]

1 - (failure of plan A AND failure of plan B)

this assumes both paths being taken simultaneously (plan A succeeds OR plan b succeeds) and independently

 

[Cattlegod]

Originally posted by: Legendary
1 - (failure of plan A AND failure of plan B)

this assumes both paths being taken simultaneously (plan A succeeds OR plan b succeeds) and independently

perfect thanks, that makes total sense.

1-(.43*.55) = 76% success.

 

[chuckywang]

Originally posted by: Cattlegod

Originally posted by: Legendary
1 - (failure of plan A AND failure of plan B)

this assumes both paths being taken simultaneously (plan A succeeds OR plan b succeeds) and independently

perfect thanks, that makes total sense.

1-(.43*.55) = 76% success.

This.

 

[Evadman]

Originally posted by: Cattlegod
I'm writing a case up right now and am trying to dig back into my cobwebs of probability:

If you have a 57% chance of something working one way, and a 45% chance of it working another, what is the overall chance of it working assuming both paths are pursued?

57% + ((1-57%)*45%) = 76.35%

Process 1 is that 57% of the time you will succeed on step 1.
Process 1 has a failure rate of 1-57% (43%)
Process 2 has a 45% chance of helping the failed 43% from process 1 succeed, or an additional 19.35% total success rate. 19.35 + 57 = 76.35%