Based on our results, we identified several noteworthy outcomes. First, approximately 80% of environmental law professors polled believe the Clean Power Plan is legal, compared to only 27% of the private environmental attorneys who responded. One reason for this could be that 74% of private attorneys in this poll represent clients on matters directly involving the Clean Power Plan, which may have imputed a bias into their responses. Alternatively, only 13% of professors represent clients. Of course, the poll was anonymous, so it could also be that these private attorneys have simply spent more time examining the potential legal issues with the Clean Power Plan than the law professors. Law professors are also known to be a liberal-leaning group, so it’s also possible that politics played into their opinions. Regardless of the reason, however, we think the glaring discrepancy in opinions is striking.
Another interesting finding is that most respondents do not believe that building block 1 is illegal, or that the Plan is unconstitutional. Considering that these two arguments are widely viewed as the weakest challenges to the Plan’s legality, this did not come as much of a surprise. But it certainly does not bode well for Professor Tribe’s constitutional arguments: the long-time liberal-lion is certainly in the minority with his belief that the Clean Power Plan is unconstitutional.
Instead, most respondents cited building blocks 3 and 4 as the reason the Plan is illegal. Somewhat less, but still a majority of those responding, also believe the Plan is not legal because of building block 2 and the language in section 111(d). As discussed above, building blocks 2, 3, and 4 deal with EPA’s interpretation of the word “system,” and the extent to which the EPA can regulate emissions outside the fence-line—or beyond the power plants themselves. Building blocks 3 (increased renewables) and 4 (energy efficiency) are clearly outside the fence-line actions; however, whether or not building block 2 is an outside the fence-line action is more debatable, as it involves running existing natural gas plants more to offset generation from coal plants. The fact that more respondents believe building blocks 3 and 4 are illegal than believe building block 2 is illegal therefore makes sense. Interestingly, the few professors that said the Plan is illegal cited either section 111(d) or building blocks 3 and 4 for the basis of its illegality.
Finally, 34% of respondents who believe the Plan is illegal do not think states should submit implementation plans to EPA. This percentage was higher than we anticipated, since this approach would likely increase electricity rates for those states that opt-out20 and could invariably end up backfiring (which is ironic, since the reason many are suggesting that states opt-out from a policy standpoint is because they believe the Plan will increase electricity rates and hurt their state’s economy).
Of course, in the end, it is only the opinions of nine people that will likely matter, none of whom participated in our poll: the nine justices siting on the U.S. Supreme Court. And while it is impossible to know how the Supreme Court might rule, a majority of the currently siting justices were law professors prior to being appointed. Based on our poll results, that could end up being good news for President Obama’s Clean Power Plan.