Question Production capacity going forward

[biostud]

Just wondering if the current generation of video cards will be kept in production while next generation are being launched?

Obviously there’s the bottleneck at TSMC and Samsung, but are 5 and 7 nm at TSMC two different lines or do they somehow affect each other?

Then there’s the rest of the components, most notably the memory, and the assembly of the cards themselves. Many possibilities for bottlenecks.

Anyone got any insight to this or some educated guesses on what will happen?

 

[Ajay]

Just wondering if the current generation of video cards will be kept in production while next generation are being launched?

I don't think anyway knows for sure, aside from AMD and Nvidia.

Obviously there’s the bottleneck at TSMC and Samsung, but are 5 and 7 nm at TSMC two different lines or do they somehow affect each other?

TSMC 7N and 5N are on separate production lines, so no conflict there. While it seems like a good plan to keep manufacturing some models from the current generation to increase supply, traditionally, older GPUs are phased out quickly.
From a business prospective , I think AMD and Nvidia would want to monetize their new products as quickly as possible. Given the current price structure, it wouldn't seem to be as necessary with such high demand, the profit margins on the older GPUs would still be fairly high. The turn over point in the supply-demand curve seems likely to be hard to predict, and a 3 months lead time on the GPU manufacturing alone (plus assembly and distribution time), could leave either company in an oversupply scenario for months.

So my guess would be that the business case isn't good for them (they are making serious bank on GPUs as it is). Are they willing to do this to generate good will in the enthusiast space?** That's the million dollar question.

** Most gpus, at this point, are probably going to OEMs according to existing supply contracts and aren't affected either way.

IMHO.

 

[plopke]

Since we seeing a RTX 2060 return , i was just wondering if we could see things like:

4090 7900 5nm
4080 7800 5/6nm
4070 7700 6nm
everything below using 7nm or a different foundry their alternative, now I am curious if the mid-tier "budget" will be just rebrand of previous generations , a cut-down design made for older process node (too complicated/expensive?) ,...

Anyway I am all for the reintroduction of RTX2060 etc or the mid-tier being of previous generation if that mean more availability , for me for example after my RX470 broke and running a very very old GTX970 the market is get a 5600G , get lucky or be prepared to pay double what you payed before for something like a 1050Ti.

 

[CakeMonster]

It would make sense that the physically smaller chips of the older generation might stay in production to maximize profitability of keeping the old node going.

Like keeping the 3050/3060 in the 4xxx generation, like the 2060 is now being reintroduced during the 3xxx generation. If NV had kept up a bigger 2060 volume during the last year I suspect they would have made even more money.

 

[biostud]

I don't think anyway knows for sure, aside from AMD and Nvidia.



TSMC 7N and 5N are on separate production lines, so no conflict there.

Except if there is a bottleneck of silicon ingots?

But as long as videocards are selling @ double their MSRP, it shouldn't be to difficult keep making profit from the older cards.

 

[jpiniero]

AMD is (justifiably, based upon what happened earlier) scared enough of a crypto crash that they aren't going to increase production. nVidia will do things like the 2060 12 GB but they will be cautious about production levels and it might be a quarter-to-quarter thing.

 

[VirtualLarry]

AMD is (justifiably, based upon what happened earlier) scared enough of a crypto crash that they aren't going to increase production. nVidia will do things like the 2060 12 GB but they will be cautious about production levels and it might be a quarter-to-quarter thing.

I think that the absolute LAST thing that either AMD or NVidia want at this point, is to have a month-long or quarter-long inventory buildup of LAST-GEN GPUs, and have the bottom drop out of the crypto market. Because we know where most of the cards are going, like it or not.

BTC dropping to $48,000 must have them a little bit spooked today, maybe if ETH drops as well, then they'll be doubly-spooked.

BTW, TIL that you CAN mine on 2GB cards, VertCoin, apparently. So know we know why GT 1030 GDDR5 cards are $150+ nowadays, LOL.

 

[UsandThem]

I just preordered a RTX 4090 today.

It was an APR of 3.90%, zero closing points, and it will be $675 / month for 30 years.

Not as bad as I initially thought it would be, although I will also have to pay property taxes and GPU owners insurance on top of it.

 

[jpiniero]

I think that the absolute LAST thing that either AMD or NVidia want at this point, is to have a month-long or quarter-long inventory buildup of LAST-GEN GPUs, and have the bottom drop out of the crypto market. Because we know where most of the cards are going, like it or not.

I guess the 2060 12 GB is meant to replace the 3050 Ti. For now.

 

[Leeea]

I just preordered a RTX 4090 today.

It was an APR of 3.90%, zero closing points, and it will be $675 / month for 30 years.

Not as bad as I initially thought it would be, although I will also have to pay property taxes and GPU owners insurance on top of it.

By far and away the worst thing with that is the bank disallows GPU mods.

Everyone knows on a 4090 the memory does not get enough cooling, and it needs a water block to extend its life. But the bank says third party coolers are not allowed until its payed off.

Super frustrating situation.

 

[eek2121]

AMD is (justifiably, based upon what happened earlier) scared enough of a crypto crash that they aren't going to increase production. nVidia will do things like the 2060 12 GB but they will be cautious about production levels and it might be a quarter-to-quarter thing.

AMD cares very little about crypto, as they sell everything they make regardless. Even if the crypto markets completely crashed and never recovered tomorrow (not likely), AMD would STILL sell every chip they make. If sales started dropping, they'd simply back off production.

 

[Stuka87]

I just preordered a RTX 4090 today.

It was an APR of 3.90%, zero closing points, and it will be $675 / month for 30 years.

Not as bad as I initially thought it would be, although I will also have to pay property taxes and GPU owners insurance on top of it.

Don't forget about the price to feed it. I heard it consumes something like 8WPF (watts per frame).

 

[Ajay]

Don't forget about the price to feed it. I heard it consumes something like 8WPF (watts per frame).

Hey, if you can't play a triple A titles at 240 FPS on a 4K monitor - clearly you are a llama and undeserving of high quality graphics. Price and power usage be damned!

 

[gdansk]

Supply won't get much better. Apple will always get the majority of allocation of any new node. They have long tails because they use the older phones for price segmentation and iPads with older SoCs for many years. When 5/4/3nm is affordable Microsoft/Sony/Qualcomm will buy node shrinks or have products planned for it. TSMC's expansion is to meet this new normal.

But if mining ends then demand should reduce significantly.

 

[Ajay]

Supply won't get much better. Apple will always get the majority of allocation of any new node. They have long tails because they use the older phones for price segmentation and iPads with older SoCs for many years. When 5/4/3nm is affordable Microsoft/Sony will buy node shrinks. TSMC's expansion is to meet the new normal.

But if mining ends then demand should reduce significantly.

Mining isn't going to end anytime soon. Currently, people in semicon are expecting more available capacity in 2023 as the capacity build out has been accelerated. Whether that pans out in consumer markets, particularly GPUs, is up in the air. I'm cautiously optimistic, but consider it a real possibility that it might take a year or two longer if companies don't start multi-sourcing their product stacks.

 

[gdansk]

Mining isn't going to end anytime soon. Currently, people in semicon are expecting more available capacity in 2023 as the capacity build out has been accelerated. Whether that pans out in consumer markets, particularly GPUs, is up in the air. I'm cautiously optimistic, but consider it a real possibility that it might take a year or two longer if companies don't start multi-sourcing their product stacks.

I am not optimistic. Everyone is moving to TSMC 6nm and 5nm at the same time. This generation at least it was split between Samsung and TSMC.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Hopefully the GPU shortage will give some incentive to developers to optimize their titles for older generations as well as low end models.

 

[Ajay]

I am not optimistic. Everyone is moving to TSMC 6nm and 5nm at the same time. This generation at least it was split between Samsung and TSMC.

Fair enough. I don't think Intel and Samsung will be able to get close to TSMC for another 2-3 years (close enough to take take back production share). I probably should have said that.
I really wonder what Samsung did to blow up their competitiveness in the 14nm range. It didn't look like they took their eye off the ball.
Losing Apple by competing with them didn't work out very well for their semicon business. Intel took their eye off the ball, that much is clear.

 

[biostud]

But will the market be flooded with mining cards once next gen is released?

If not wouldn't it make sense to keep producing current gen cards?

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Fair enough. I don't think Intel and Samsung will be able to get close to TSMC for another 2-3 years (close enough to take take back production share). I probably should have said that.
I really wonder what Samsung did to blow up their competitiveness in the 14nm range. It didn't look like they took their eye off the ball.
Losing Apple by competing with them didn't work out very well for their semicon business. Intel took their eye off the ball, that much is clear.

- Looks like AMD is going to be tapping Samsung's future nodes to offload some of their production.

I can definitely see a business case for producing your bleeding edge/top dollar parts at the best foundry (TSMC) while mainstream parts are produced at a more cost effective foundry with lower production costs and looser tolerances.

In an ideal world I could see a company producing their top tier at TSMC, their mid range and mainstream tiers at Samsung, then their entry level tiers at something like GloFlo.

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