PREDICTION: Microsoft will lose hard on this generation.

[dpodblood]

People made the same statements when the iPod was released.

Really? When was the iPod $500? And when did it try to replace the functions of numerous other household electronics? AFAIK the iPod was just an MP3 player.

 

[tential]

You forget that it's only the gamers on the internet who are crying foul over the DRM and such. The real war will be waged when mom and dad walk into the store to buy one for their kid.

If the X1 fails, it'll be because of the price, not because of DRM, used games policies, Kinect, etc.

This is what I've been saying everywhere I don't think people understand that we, as people who are online chatting about this and are watching E3 are a minority. A HUGE minority. All of my friends own these consoles, but are no where into technology like I am where I read up on new CPU architectures, learn what new games are coming out or whatever.

Xbox1 has to show it's value for that 100 dollars. So if I'm MS right now, I start showcasing WHY you want to have that Kinect, Why that Cloud Computing is phucking ballin etc. But XB1 is hitting the market first apparently, and will be in time for Christmas. Some people are speculating that PS4 won't hit Christmas (I dunno though).

I won't call a winner because like you said, a winner is based on the general public.

 

[sweenish]

this thread is where we will see the fanboys of the different sides come out!!

This is true. I just came in to say that it will very likely be a much closer race than all this pre-release, barely-informed speculation wants to think it will be.

 

[mikegg]

They buy what the kid says they want.

Your social media argument is just as baseless as mine. I don't see how you feel like you have a better argument, but boy do you like to come into every Xbox thread and go to town.

It's plain ignorant to think that Halo and CoD (Xbox is the preferred platform for the series) won't move a massive amount of units. Those two games alone will make the next generation a closer race than everyone wants to think.

Halo has lost some steam. It's not even developed by Bungie anymore. All those that enjoyed Halo back in 2001 are now 12 years older and are probably doing adult stuff.

You overestimate the power of Halo in my opinion.

 

[dpodblood]

Regardless of what anyone says it's just a matter of fact that both MS and Sony will be successful in this generation. I think MS is generating a lot of bad press right now, but when it comes down to it people are weak willed and will buy the ONE regardless of how they feel about the restrictions. Not to mention all the MS fanboys who have probably already preordered the system, and the people who will buy the system without knowing the restrictions or even considering an alternative.

 

[dpodblood]

Halo has lost some steam. It's not even developed by Bungie anymore. All those that enjoyed Halo back in 2001 are now 12 years older and are probably doing adult stuff.

You overestimate the power of Halo in my opinion.

Halo has never been my thing, but I think that people who bought it 12 years ago are still interested in playing the current iterations. Many of the people who are buying these games don't even realize they're being developed by a different studio. Again as people who spend hours playing games and online in forums we have to take a step back and realize that our view is not the same as that of the general public.

 

[BeeBoop]

Do you honestly think the average "non-hardcore gamer" consumer is going to go out and spend $500 on a device that they are going to use mainly as a media hub (even though a cable box is still required), and just use it for occasional gaming?

People still buy 500$ ipads even though there are cheaper options don't they? When I look at side by side pictures of the PS4 and XboX One, I see two completely different machines. One machine just plays games and the other one is the central media hub of the living room that can connect to my tablet and smartphone.

Most of the other non-gaming functionality that MS showed off with the Xbox ONE people already have access to with their phones, tablets, and laptops. MS really have bought into their own BS believing that the ONE is somehow the device that's going to "transform the living room." Everything about their conferences bleeds arrogance. They believe so blindly that people have MS brand loyalty that people will just suck it up, and buy the system regardless of what absurd restrictions they put in the way.

Non-gaming functionality is exactly the reason why the XboX One is not in the same market space as the PS4. Voice commands and grab to Zoom are functions of a tablet or smartphone. A more likely competitor would be the Ipad. The XboX One also has motion and the ability to connect to smart devices, so that really pits the XboX One in a unique and technically advance category of it's own. The Wii, Ipad, Iphone, and Samsung phones have all used this strategy and it worked out well for them. As long as Microsoft can continue to advertise motion and voice commands of the XboX One, I see success in their future.

We have already seen an extremely negative reaction to MS tactics with the ONE from core gamers. The core gamers, and early adopters will be huge influences on people who go to buy one of these next gen consoles later down the line.

Hardcore gamers are only a small fraction of the the entire market. We know this because of what the Wii and Ipad sales did.

You think that people aren't going to know that they can't rent, or trade games anymore?

Renting and trading is not a issue. I have never heard of anyone complain that they couldn't trade games on Steam.

 

[smackababy]

Halo has lost some steam. It's not even developed by Bungie anymore. All those that enjoyed Halo back in 2001 are now 12 years older and are probably doing adult stuff.

You overestimate the power of Halo in my opinion.

Halo 4 has sold 4 million copies since release. BTW, that was at the start of November of 2012 and developed not by Bungie, but 343. It was also the 3rd most played game on Xbox Live in 2012 (with only 2 months of availability). I don't think Halo has lost any steam.

 

[Doppel]

The insulting thing about the Xbone's so-called TV features is that you STILL need those other boxes with it, and I'm sure that's going to be a support nightmare. It's not even a DVR replacement for TV. It's really just a tuner. And we all have SO much trouble watching TV with what we already have and already pay for. Not.

This is what blows my mind. It does NOTHING my Sony receiver doesn't already do with only two exceptions:

1) It switches faster (who cares; who is switching back and forth all the time between inputs?)
2) It has voice prompt

-------

MS is being slammed by the gaming crowd. There is a poll on IGN right now and it's wildly biased toward favoring Sony at the moment. Sony knows this and must be counting its lucky blessings that MS has shot itself in the head so that Sony doesn't have to over used games.

All that said, it's way, way, way too early to predict the demise of Xbox. MS is very monetized and can change this kind of thing quickly. If their hardware sucked it would be a constant hamstringing, but it doesn't. It's inferior to Sony's, but not massively so. It's not like it's a Wii U!

 

[ImpulsE69]

Its very true...hell my wife came home from work yesterday (not a gamer) and was like..did you hear all the BS MS is trying to push? I laughed. It's getting quite the media attention.

I do not think MS will fail though. There are too many people out there these days who...well just don't care about "freedom of choice". It's about the instant gratification.

I do think MS screwed up with the mainstream pick though. They are trying to copy the Wii...however the Wii was MUCH cheaper. The non gamer crowd doesn't drop $500 on a box they'll barely use. They need to really re-evaluate their business model and adjust fire.

 

[Pia]

I'm rooting for the Xbone to bomb. Maybe then Microsoft would remember they still have the highest end gaming platform - Windows PC - and start making money there. Port over the biggest XBox and Xbone exclusives. Take steps to make the platform more attractive as a whole. Full Xbone game controller compatibility and full configuration/remapping utilities for the user. Everything right in standard Windows API, usable by any developer including those who do not need or want a full "GfW 2.0" service package. "Big Picture" mode. Maybe look at gaming hardware; partner with computer manufacturers like Google does with its Nexus devices, and put out medium-sized production runs of affordable but reasonably strong and really polished gaming/HT desktops intended to serve as examples for the rest of the industry. "Microsoft Gaming" experience from Asus, Lenovo, etc., $800?

 

[exdeath]

I'm more concerned about 3rd party software.... right now they seem to be supporting both MS and Sony... but what if they turn to MS due to the used game restrictions etc. ?

No worries. If you had to choose between 80k copies on XB1 and 40k copies on PS3 (less due to used copies) or JUST 80k on XB1, when making both is a simple checkbox and #ifndef

Sony knew this and called the bluffs.

 

[purbeast0]

No worries. If you had to choose between 80k copies on XB1 and 40k copies on PS3 (less due to used copies) or JUST 80k on XB1, when making both is a simple checkbox and #ifndef

Sony knew this and called the bluffs.

yeah that is the point i was trying to make. putting a game out "timed exclusively" on xbox1 makes 0 financial sense. unless ms paid them millions to do so.

EDIT:

oh shit that was in another thread about this same topic. too many damn threads i can't keep up! love e3 time!!!

 

[dpodblood]

You make valid points, and I'm honestly not trying to start an argument here, but there are some more points for you to consider.

People still buy 500$ ipads even though there are cheaper options don't they? When I look at side by side pictures of the PS4 and XboX One, I see two completely different machines. One machine just plays games and the other one is the central media hub of the living room that can connect to my tablet and smartphone.

Issue here is that people are still going to want to have their tablet/smartphone devices regardless of what overlapping functionality the ONE has. I doubt very much that a large portion of users are going to purchase a ONE just to get similar features from their console. There may be an argument for it if the ONE had the ability to replace your cable box, but it simply doesn't.

Non-gaming functionality is exactly the reason why the XboX One is not in the same market space as the PS4. Voice commands and grab to Zoom are functions of a tablet or smartphone. A more likely competitor would be the Ipad. The XboX One also has motion and the ability to connect to smart devices, so that really pits the XboX One in a unique and technically advance category of it's own. The Wii, Ipad, Iphone, and Samsung phones have all used this strategy and it worked out well for them. As long as Microsoft can continue to advertise motion and voice commands of the XboX One, I see success in their future.

It's nice that the ONE can do all that smart glass pairing stuff and all, but that's more of a "hey that's pretty neat" than functionality that's really a system seller. TBH my personal sentiment, and the sentiment that I hear from a lot of other people is that they don't want to use voice commands or gestures to control their system. It's just as easy (and a lot less embarrassing) to do with a remote or a controller.

Hardcore games are only a small fraction of the the entire market. We know this because of what the Wii and Ipad sales did.

I would argue the casual gamers who were attracted to the Wii and the iPad are not the audience that the Xbox is catering to. Yes they are to a small degree with crappy kinect and other casual games, but they are not making a big play in that arena at the moment. I think the iPad/tablet market has taken a lot of that potential away from the console space anyway. And again the hardcore audience will influence people who pick up a next gen system later down the line.

Renting and trading is not a issue. I have never heard of anyone complain that they couldn't trade games on Steam.

Would be a fair point if most steam users weren't getting most of their games at %50-%90 off. I consider myself pretty hardcore and I still only but 2-3 full price games per year digitally. And you have to also factor in expectations. When people buy a digital game they don't have the expectation (right or wrong) that they should be able to resell the game. The same cannot be said of a physical disk. There is also the issue of being able to use these games in the future. Once the ONE reaches the end of it's lifetime what happens to your games? Do they take the servers hosting all this content offline? Are you still going to be able to access your games in 20-30 years time? With Steam and other PC distribution platforms there is no "next generation." You can continue to access all your content unless Valve somehow goes out of business.

 

[Tweak155]

No worries. If you had to choose between 80k copies on XB1 and 40k copies on PS3 (less due to used copies) or JUST 80k on XB1, when making both is a simple checkbox and #ifndef

Sony knew this and called the bluffs.

While it is probably not to this extreme, it highlights the point. It's a good thing the architecture is a lot closer this gen, will make stuff like this a lot easier.

 

[ghost recon88]

Microsoft should stick to computer software (which they still struggle at) and get out of the hardware business all together, since they completely suck at it.

 

[dpodblood]

Microsoft should stick to computer software (which they still struggle at) and get out of the hardware business all together, since they completely stuck at it.

Well what MS have done is made a purely business decision. They are hedging their bets that by preventing the sale of used games and trades (to a pretty significant degree) that they are still going to make more money in the long term even if they lose a few customers. I would hazard a guess that they also believe that even if these decisions stifle sales up front in the long term people will "get over it" and go buy the Xbox ONE regardless. I have to hope that MS has enough self awareness to know that this has been a PR disaster, and they are just trying to minimize the impact by somehow framing the "always connected" aspects of the console as a good thing to the consumer (even if there are no actual benefits).

 

[torpid]

I own a PS3. I chose it because it was a great blu-ray player for the money and as such had a distinct advantage over the Xbox 360.

If I buy anything, it will be a One. Yes, I find the DRM stuff annoying. Yes, the PS4 is more powerful. But here's why I don't have any interest in the PS4:

1) Sony has a proven track record of inferior online offerings. They have had years to catch up to MS and are still nowhere near doing so, IMO. It's a mistake for them to price their offering at $60 given how far behind they are.

2) The Move and Eye are nowhere near as engaging as I want them to be. I think the Kinect is at a big advantage, which is even bigger of an advantage when you consider that the Eye will be an optional accessory

3) I may or may not find great value in voice/gesture and multimedia features, but I'd certainly rather have it than basically nothing.

4) I'm not sure if the TV integration will work as well as they want us to believe, but I think it's a smart direction to take. A huge percentage of the people I know (heavy and light gamers alike) use their Xbox and/or PS3 about as often for things like netflix and hbo go as for actual gaming.

 

[Subyman]

I think we will see some changes from MS leading up to the launch, so its hard to make predictions right now. If they go full steam ahead, then I can see them losing a lot of the core audience to Sony. How that affects Joe Call of Duty and his band of Live brethren is up-in-the-air right now.

 

[dpodblood]

I think we will see some changes from MS leading up to the launch, so its hard to make predictions right now. If they go full steam ahead, then I can see them losing a lot of the core audience to Sony. How that affects Joe Call of Duty and his band of Live brethren is up-in-the-air right now.

I can see MS wanting to change some of their decisions at this point, but that would make them look like idiots when they suddenly change their mind on all this "being connected 24/7 is a good thing" smoke an mirrors they're trying to blow up our asses.

 

[quest55720]

4) I'm not sure if the TV integration will work as well as they want us to believe, but I think it's a smart direction to take. A huge percentage of the people I know (heavy and light gamers alike) use their Xbox and/or PS3 about as often for things like netflix and hbo go as for actual gaming.

The TV is actually not very smart since it is for live cable/sat TV. It still requires a cable TV box to work for it. Almost no cable boxes will work with is smoothly since most are old and suck. So the Xbone is basically a IR blasting remote for live tv. It is the same issue google TV is having which is 1/5 the price. The only thing it does is fast switching and voice remote. But still easier to hit input than use voice then use the remote to get the TV out of game mode or back into it. Everything else can be done easier and faster on a tablet/phone that most who would buy a Xbone would have any ways. This would of been cool a decade ago before DVRs caught on and people watched a lot of live TV.

Was a huge waste of money should of went after IPTV relationships instead. The PS4 like the PS3 will have Netflix/hulu but no hbo go. Also any of the good stuff on the Xbone is behind a paywall like Netflix. The PS4 media is not behind a paywall.

 

[DaveSimmons]

I own a PS3. I chose it because it was a great blu-ray player for the money and as such had a distinct advantage over the Xbox 360.

If I buy anything, it will be a One. Yes, I find the DRM stuff annoying. Yes, the PS4 is more powerful. But here's why I don't have any interest in the PS4:

4) I'm not sure if the TV integration will work as well as they want us to believe, but I think it's a smart direction to take. A huge percentage of the people I know (heavy and light gamers alike) use their Xbox and/or PS3 about as often for things like netflix and hbo go as for actual gaming.

I use my PS3 for Netflix, Amazon Prime, etc. and it works great. I have no reason to think the PS4 will work less well at that. And so far it's only online gaming that requires PSN+ not Netflix, so (unlike Xbox) I have the option of watching Netflix without paying an extra $50/year.

X1 will finally have blu-ray, but I expect Sony's playback will be as good or better since they've been offering it since 2006. And I try not to use my 360 to watch DVDs because the image quality is not as good as on my PS3.

 

[Nintendesert]

I'm more concerned about 3rd party software.... right now they seem to be supporting both MS and Sony... but what if they turn to MS due to the used game restrictions etc. ?

So you think the used game market is hurting developers more than cutting out the Playstation market entirely? :wub:

 

[torpid]

The TV is actually not very smart since it is for live cable/sat TV. It still requires a cable TV box to work for it. Almost no cable boxes will work with is smoothly since most are old and suck. So the Xbone is basically a IR blasting remote for live tv. It is the same issue google TV is having which is 1/5 the price. The only thing it does is fast switching and voice remote. But still easier to hit input than use voice then use the remote to get the TV out of game mode or back into it. Everything else can be done easier and faster on a tablet/phone that most who would buy a Xbone would have any ways. This would of been cool a decade ago before DVRs caught on and people watched a lot of live TV.

Was a huge waste of money should of went after IPTV relationships instead. The PS4 like the PS3 will have Netflix/hulu but no hbo go. Also any of the good stuff on the Xbone is behind a paywall like Netflix. The PS4 media is not behind a paywall.

Do we know that the PS4 apps like Netflix won't require their $50 online service? I assume it will but perhaps not.

 

[kami]

1) Sony has a proven track record of inferior online offerings. They have had years to catch up to MS and are still nowhere near doing so, IMO. It's a mistake for them to price their offering at $60 given how far behind they are.

I would say PSN Plus is way more value than Live Gold. Sony also doesn't put third party services (such at Netflix) behind their own paywall. Is also 50 for 12 months, not 60.

Now MS offers a couple games you can buy used for $3 on ebay. At least they are moving in the right direction with giving out games like Plus, so ill give them that.

Do we know that the PS4 apps like Netflix won't require their $60 online service? I assume it will but perhaps not.

They specifically mentioned those services won't require Plus.