Prediction: Iowa Caucus Results - KERRY WINS!!!

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CADsortaGUY

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Ok since people think they know politics here lets go on record with predictions on tonight's outcome.

dean wins by a somewhat narrow margin(in caucus terms) and Kerry comes in Second.

Anyone else want to go on record? First two places should be sufficient due to the nature of the caucus. I really don't want the above to be true but my gut says it will be.


Edit- Kerry WINS!!! Edwards second.
I guess no one was correct.:p

CkG
 
M

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,906
6,788
126
Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY
Ok since people think they know politics here lets go on record with predictions on tonight's outcome.

dean wins by a somewhat narrow margin(in caucus terms) and Kerry comes in Second.

Anyone else want to go on record? First two places should be sufficient due to the nature of the caucus. I really don't want the above to be true but my gut says it will be.

CkG
Click to expand...

You should maybe notice that your gut is connected to your ass and your cheeks are telling you. I hope you are right. Gutless didn't Kerry voted for the war for fear of loosing votes, I think, or just plain has bad judgment. Screw him.
 
CaptnKirk

CaptnKirk

Lifer
Jul 25, 2002
10,053
0
71
This is essentially a 4-Dog show. If you don't finish in the top 4 you're done
(Unless you had the forsight to skip this like Clark and Liberman)

I see a tie between Dean as the 'Anti-Bush', and Kerry as the 'Not a Bush'
Edwards may be a suprise if he places third.
If Gebhardt dosen't place first in the state next to his residence record (Missouri)
he is as good as done, only his local proximity gives him the recognition to place that high.

It may well be Kerry over Dean there as I don't see the 'Anti-War' going that far in Iowa
as it would go in the Atlantic North East. Kerry wins on being strong on Military.

1) Kerry (Looks like a horse, talks like a horse, smells like a hourse, hung like a . . )
2) Dean (Is this our decade's Walter Mondale persona ?)
3) Gebhardt (Too much red hair and freckles - like Howdy Doody)
4) Edwards (Too much 'Southern Drawl')
5) Dark Horse ? That would be Sharpton.
(Isn't 'Caucus' short for 'Caucasian' ?)


This just looks like a game of musical chairs from Hell
(New York Times)
At 7 p.m., they will begin dividing into "preference groups" according to their presidential choice.
Members of groups that do not achieve a certain level ? 15 percent of those attending,
in most cases ? then have 30 minutes to realign with other candidates.
The membership of the groups is tallied and, using a mathematical formula,
the number of precinct delegates is divided among the candidates.
The numbers are then phoned in to the party headquarters.
 
D

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY
Ok since people think they know politics here lets go on record with predictions on tonight's outcome.

dean wins by a somewhat narrow margin(in caucus terms) and Kerry comes in Second.

Anyone else want to go on record? First two places should be sufficient due to the nature of the caucus. I really don't want the above to be true but my gut says it will be.

CkG
Click to expand...

That's interesting CAD. How did the Pollsters get it so wrong? Latest poll on News now shows Kerry pulling out way in front at 28% Edwards 27% Dean 23% Gephardt 18%. They even open the segments saying "One time Front Runner Dean had an unexpected Stumper show up" , when his wife arrived. Are they implying she just showed up and he had no idea she was coming?

 
CADsortaGUY

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY
Ok since people think they know politics here lets go on record with predictions on tonight's outcome.

dean wins by a somewhat narrow margin(in caucus terms) and Kerry comes in Second.

Anyone else want to go on record? First two places should be sufficient due to the nature of the caucus. I really don't want the above to be true but my gut says it will be.

CkG
Click to expand...

That's interesting CAD. How did the Pollsters get it so wrong? Latest poll on News now shows Kerry pulling out way in front at 28% Edwards 27% Dean 23% Gephardt 18%. They even open the segments saying "One time Front Runner Dean had an unexpected Stumper show up" , when his wife arrived. Are they implying she just showed up and he had no idea she was coming?
Click to expand...


Have a prediction or do you and moonie just want to fill this thread up with other BS? IF you don't - kindly find your way out of this thread -thanks:)

CkG
 
D

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY
Ok since people think they know politics here lets go on record with predictions on tonight's outcome.

dean wins by a somewhat narrow margin(in caucus terms) and Kerry comes in Second.

Anyone else want to go on record? First two places should be sufficient due to the nature of the caucus. I really don't want the above to be true but my gut says it will be.

CkG
Click to expand...

That's interesting CAD. How did the Pollsters get it so wrong? Latest poll on News now shows Kerry pulling out way in front at 28% Edwards 27% Dean 23% Gephardt 18%. They even open the segments saying "One time Front Runner Dean had an unexpected Stumper show up" , when his wife arrived. Are they implying she just showed up and he had no idea she was coming?
Click to expand...


Have a prediction or do you and moonie just want to fill this thread up with other BS? IF you don't - kindly find your way out of this thread -thanks:)

CkG
Click to expand...

Only you could have any idea what your fellow Iowans are thinking especially since you attended a Dean Rally.

 
C

chess9

Elite member
Apr 15, 2000
7,748
0
0
This will be Gebhart's swan song. Kiss him goodbye. He will not get enough votes to revive his campaign.

I think the grass roots voters are re-thinking Dean, principally because he will not appeal to Southern voters. Southerners don't care for abrasive types. The Dems are very worried about the South and should be. We haven't elected a Yankee Democrat in over 40 years. The South has finally risen again. :)

Kerry is a consummate overblown, self-important jerk and I will not vote for him under any circumstance. However, some people think he looks and sounds Presidential so he's going to fool enough people to come out at or near the top.

Edwards is the big winner in my view. His campaign is moving forward principally because he has shown himself to be the anti-Dean. He rarely goes negative, but relies on his smile and Southern charm to pursuade folks. I don't like to see politicians smile so much. It makes me nervous. But Edwards may come out of this with a big head of steam.

If Kerry beats Dean in Iowa I think that means Dean will be in trouble in N.H. and may not make it to June.

My prediction:

Kerry and Dean almost evenly split, with Edwards taking third and Gebhard fourth. Look for Edwards to continue to grow his base and benefit when Kerry or Dean drops out.

-Robert
 
M

MonstaThrilla

Golden Member
Sep 16, 2000
1,652
0
0
Dean will win by a healthy margin. Not a blowout, but not a squeaker. A strong victory you could say.

I could care less what order the other guys finish in.
 
O

oreagan

Senior member
Jul 8, 2002
235
0
0
I'd like to think it will follow the polling data - Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Gephart. I'll like it even more if Edwards pulls a surprise victory, but I'm not holding my breath. Regardless, anything but 1st for Dean means better-than-expected results for at least one candidate...I'm pretty sure Kerry was shooting for 2nd and Edwards for 3rd in Iowa (Well, everyone shoots for 1st, but I think that was the expected gameplan anyway). New Hampshire will be a big testing ground for Kerry, and Edwards should have a victory in SC. From there, it gets interesting.
 
C

chowderhead

Platinum Member
Dec 7, 1999
2,633
263
126
Dean 30%
Kerry 26%
Gephardt 22%
Edwards 18%
Uncommitted 2%
Kucinich 1-2%

I think Dean nips by. Kerry is gaining. Gephardt is already talking about having ads in other states (meaning I think he believes he is fading). Edwards looks good but ran out of time.
 
J

josphII

Banned
Nov 24, 2001
1,490
0
0
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY
Ok since people think they know politics here lets go on record with predictions on tonight's outcome.

dean wins by a somewhat narrow margin(in caucus terms) and Kerry comes in Second.

Anyone else want to go on record? First two places should be sufficient due to the nature of the caucus. I really don't want the above to be true but my gut says it will be.

CkG
Click to expand...

That's interesting CAD. How did the Pollsters get it so wrong? Latest poll on News now shows Kerry pulling out way in front at 28% Edwards 27% Dean 23% Gephardt 18%. They even open the segments saying "One time Front Runner Dean had an unexpected Stumper show up" , when his wife arrived. Are they implying she just showed up and he had no idea she was coming?
Click to expand...

and the LA Times had bustamante and Shwarteneggar in a dead heat the night before the election, go figure!
 
CADsortaGUY

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
It's 5:30 pm CAD, your polls are open , make sure you get down there and vote for your favorite guy Dean now.
Click to expand...

It starts at 6:30 and I'm not a demorat so I won't vote for dean. I'm off to the Republican caucus though. See you after a few cups of coffee, a few cookies, and some chatting.:D

CkG
 
LunarRay

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
I think Bush will come in second to Horace the talking Gnu in the republican caucus.
I think Kerry will win and Dean second.
 
M

MonstaThrilla

Golden Member
Sep 16, 2000
1,652
0
0
Originally posted by: MonstaThrilla
Dean will win by a healthy margin. Not a blowout, but not a squeaker. A strong victory you could say.

I could care less what order the other guys finish in.
Click to expand...

Ouch. I just pwned myself. ;)
 
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