Predicting the Future of Video Cards (power vs efficiency)

[cbn]

Does Anyone else think there may be a relative slowdown of Video Card processing power performance in the future?

It seems lately manufacturers (Nvidia and ATI) have been both shrinking processes and increasing die size. While power efficiency increases with smaller processes it seems total power consumption has increased dramatically in recent years (as evidenced by the newly increased ~3 years demand for power supplies and power consumption comparisons like this http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/...er,review-31495-4.html

How much farther can this go? Or will graphic cards makers instead focus on making gains in efficiency rather than increasing TDP?

Am I right that a slowdown is coming where performance increasing will come solely from gains in efficiency?

If TDP needs to level off on GPUs does that mean technologies able to integrate more GPUs will be in demand? If so how could that be done? So far I have seen an ASUS workstation board that claims three full x16 PCI-E lanes. Will HEX SLI become a solution? If so what will manufactures do in order to solve the issue of memory bottlenecks at higher resolutions? (I have been told that four Video cards runnning in SLI can only use the memory of one of the cards)

 

[alyarb]

larrabee supposedly has a TDP of 300 W. the power consumption isn't going down yet.

 

[cbn]

Originally posted by: alyarb
larrabee supposedly has a TDP of 300 W. the power consumption isn't going down yet.

I brought this up because it is going to hard to get consumers to upgrade if future improvements will be coming solely from gains in efficiency.

By increasing efficiency and TDP improvements in performance can be more strikingly dramatic.

In fact, it is amazing what happened between Nvidia 7900 and Nvidia 8800 (but then look at what happend to power consumption at the same time. a single 8800 Ultra was a power hog compared to even 7950 GX2)

 

[Zstream]

Originally posted by: Just learning

Originally posted by: alyarb
larrabee supposedly has a TDP of 300 W. the power consumption isn't going down yet.

I brought this up because it is going to hard to get consumers to upgrade if future gains will be coming solely from gains in efficiency.

By increasing efficiency and TDP improvements in performance can be more strikingly dramatic.

In fact, it is amazing what happened between Nvidia 7900 and Nvidia 8800 (but then look at what happend to power consumption at the same time. a single 8800 Ultra was a power hog compared to even 7950 GX2)

Until we change out from copper do not expect to see much.

 

[cbn]

Originally posted by: Zstream

Originally posted by: Just learning

Originally posted by: alyarb
larrabee supposedly has a TDP of 300 W. the power consumption isn't going down yet.

I brought this up because it is going to hard to get consumers to upgrade if future gains will be coming solely from gains in efficiency.

By increasing efficiency and TDP improvements in performance can be more strikingly dramatic.

In fact, it is amazing what happened between Nvidia 7900 and Nvidia 8800 (but then look at what happend to power consumption at the same time. a single 8800 Ultra was a power hog compared to even 7950 GX2)

Until we change out from copper do not expect to see much.

What do you mean by change out from copper? (Is this in reference to one of the layers used in the chips).

 

[cbn]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u85sf_ARiW0&fmt=22

Speaking of Future graphics demands here is the CryEngine 3. <----Looks good but I wonder how long it will take graphics cards makers to catch up considering where TDP is for top of the line GPUs today.

 

[vj8usa]

Originally posted by: Just learning
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u85sf_ARiW0&fmt=22

Speaking of Future graphics demands here is the CryEngine 3. <----Looks good but I wonder how long it will take graphics cards makers to catch up considering where TDP is for top of the line GPUs today.

What're you talking about? CryEngine 3 games should be less demanding than Crysis. CE3 is made to run on the PS3 and 360 as well, and those have very weak GPUs in today's terms. Watch the video closely - it doesn't look as good as Crysis/Warhead.

 

[cbn]

Originally posted by: vj8usa

Originally posted by: Just learning
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u85sf_ARiW0&fmt=22

Speaking of Future graphics demands here is the CryEngine 3. <----Looks good but I wonder how long it will take graphics cards makers to catch up considering where TDP is for top of the line GPUs today.

What're you talking about? CryEngine 3 games should be less demanding than Crysis. CE3 is made to run on the PS3 and 360 as well, and those have very weak GPUs in today's terms. Watch the video closely - it doesn't look as good as Crysis/Warhead.

I know the video cards in PS3 and Xbox 360 are weaker but don't they only run at 720p resolution?

Even first generation PCI-E ATI video cards from 2004 can handle Crysis if the resolution and detail settings are low enough.

Maybe the reason the video doesn't look good is because some of the detail settings need to be turned down for use on the PS3/Xbox360?