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Post your 2024 EC Map predictions!!!

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ivwshane said:
Why would Trump pick up more voters and why would Harris lose more votes?

My prediction is that Harris picks up a higher percentage of the female vote as well as “former” republicans. I don’t see where Trump picks up any meaningful demographics.
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Demographic destiny is a lie. New old people are made every day.

New Trump voters are being created right now. By the ones telling everyone to have babies all the time.

This election is about whether there are a majority of reasonable people in a few swing states or not. Not a great look for things in general that it's just getting along peacefully with each other that's the divider. One side thinks its ideas of correctness should be enforced by brute force. That can be a problem.
 
dank69 said:
Here's the thing I struggle with: I think it is a given that Trump's base has shrunk, not grown.

There have been many "last straw" moments over the last 8 years, several of which were massive. His handling of covid turned off a lot of people. January 6th turned off a lot of people. The classified documents turned off a lot of people. His statements about the military turned off a lot of people. Losing Roe turned off a LOT of people.

On top of that, his denial of covid killed off a shitload of his most die hard shit eaters. And yet, from 2016 to 2020 he gained 9 million votes. Where the fuck did 9 million new voters come from?

16 million more people voted for Biden than Hillary. Presumably these people either liked Biden more than Hillary or despised Trump enough to vote against him instead of for him, 3rd party, or sitting out like they did in 2016. Presumably Trump's 9 million had to be made up of people who either hated Biden more than they hated Hillary, or gained a newfound love of Trump that they didn't already have in 2016.

So, in the 4 years between 2016 and 2020 elections we have 25 million extra voters. We can chalk roughly 12 million of those to population growth. If we generously give Trump half of those new voters, and generously pretend that a roughly equal number of people crossed the aisle (Hillary->Trump vs. Trump->Biden), that means at least 3 million people developed a new found love for Trump.

That's after hundreds of thousands of his most loyal supporters died from covid. I just don't understand how he gained voters after all that. It's not like he had the benefit of being able to blame everything going wrong in the world on a Democrat in the White House, he was in the White House...
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To the bolded, literally ...
 
SteveGrabowski said:
We're probably fucked

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Well fuck, guess I was too bullish on Harris in NV.
 
Luna1968 said:
you dems just can not stop with that name calling hate bullshit can you. maybe that is why you got your asses handed to you last night. the country is sick of it.
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If you're a fascist, just own it. Fascism won yesterday; you have a lot to celebrate. If you don't like to see yourself as a fascist, then stop voting like one. You have agency and personal responsibly for your reprehensible conduct.
 
dank69 said:
And perhaps MI too. I think @nickqt is going to be the closest, only missing WI.
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I was close in the most disappointing way. I was off by a longshot on the total vote count. The only way it makes sense for both candidates to have less votes than the last election is to suppose that there are tens of millions of blue voters who would vote for an old white man in 2020 but decided to binge watch storage wars when a mixed race woman ran against a criminal and self-avowed fascist 4 years later.

Obviously, if the Democrats have any chance in 2028, it has to be a straight white man who is absolutely Christian, 'cause I don't see any other analysis that makes sense...unless I'm missing something here.

Here's hoping Trump and Friends aren't really fascists and just want to steal as much money as possible. Gotta take the glass half full view on it.
 
nickqt said:
I was close in the most disappointing way. I was off by a longshot on the total vote count. The only way it makes sense for both candidates to have less votes than the last election is to suppose that there are tens of millions of blue voters who would vote for an old white man in 2020 but decided to binge watch storage wars when a mixed race woman ran against a criminal and self-avowed fascist 4 years later.

Obviously, if the Democrats have any chance in 2028, it has to be a straight white man who is absolutely Christian, 'cause I don't see any other analysis that makes sense...unless I'm missing something here.

Here's hoping Trump and Friends aren't really fascists and just want to steal as much money as possible. Gotta take the glass half full view on it.
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I am pretty sure (as I mentioned in another thread) that it wasn't Democrats that let us down, it was swing voters. Swing voters that swung hard for Biden because the incumbent was fumbling the economy and the pandemic response and now swung hard for Trump because the "incumbent" was "fumbling the economy."
 
dank69 said:
I am pretty sure (as I mentioned in another thread) that it wasn't Democrats that let us down, it was swing voters. Swing voters that swung hard for Biden because the incumbent was fumbling the economy and the pandemic response and now swung hard for Trump because the "incumbent" was "fumbling the economy."
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This is probably right.

Swing voters are and remain disengaged with the political process until it comes time to vote. And it seems like complicated views on reality are ignored and instead it comes down to, "are things better today than they were under the previous administration"?.

And since Biden was only ever President 1+ year into a worldwide pandemic with worldwide inflation, it doesn't matter if the US did "better" than every other country with inflation, things are still more expensive and regular everyday life is inferior to pre-Covid life...and that's the only thing that mattered to swing voters.

I guess the silver lining is that Trump didn't increase his total vote count.

Any of the trolls laughing about women dying of sepsis due to a completely avoidable medical condition don't get to laugh because Trump was a better candidate than Harris, but instead they get to laugh at women dying of sepsis because disengaged swing state voters are too fucking stupid to analyze politics more than "do I have more cents in my bank account this week than some arbitrary period in 2019".

And, I'm OK with it. 2016 and 2024 have shown me that relying on people who aren't intelligent enough to understand politics at more than a 3rd grade level is a mistake, and spending time/goodwill towards them is a total waste of my time and goodwill.

I will be there to help where/when I can with people who can think, and for everyone else, Trump will provide or he won't, stay the fuck away from me.
 
Luna1968 said:
lol this whole thread did not age well. shows how biased this forum is
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This forum is filled with liberals who keep insisting Harris was the right candidate and no one else could have done any better. I am in utter shock anyone can defend the DNC after this most epic of failures when the DNC would much rather keep losing elections than have genuinely left of center candidates that might actually appeal to American voters.
 
SteveGrabowski said:
So why was this post laughed off?
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It got laughed off because of the person who posted it. I can't tell whether or not gothuevos is less tiring to read now that Trump did actually win, or if the despair gothuevos had before the election is now shared and I no longer find their posts tiring in the same vein.

I mean, if we're going by this thread, I guess I "won" with the closest map. Sure, I posted two maps, but my "Trump wins" map is only missing WI.

Additionally, I stated months ago that Trump would get close to 80m votes and got roasted for it.
 
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