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Post your 2020 EC result prediction. Here's mine.

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Amused said:
My new prediction:

The only tossups left are Ohio and Georgia after new post debate/COVID hoax polls.

View attachment 31260
Click to expand...
538 has had Biden barely ahead in Ohio. While Trump has had a larger lead in GA but it’s closing quickly. Not sure where these will end up.

A note (not necessarily to you Amused), polling errors are not destined to only favor the GOP candidate. Historically the errors are mostly random.

For this election I think 2016 is causing an error in under estimating dem turnout causing an undercount in Dem positive polls. BUT voter suppression will likely drive down successful democratic votes.

I’m not sure which effect will be larger.
 
Paratus said:
538 has had Biden barely ahead in Ohio. While Trump has had a larger lead in GA but it’s closing quickly. Not sure where these will end up.

A note (not necessarily to you Amused), polling errors are not destined to only favor the GOP candidate. Historically the errors are mostly random.

For this election I think 2016 is causing an error in under estimating dem turnout causing an undercount in Dem positive polls. BUT voter suppression will likely drive down successful democratic votes.

I’m not sure which effect will be larger.
Click to expand...

I know. There is a LOT of uncertainty still.

Ugh.

They have created and fanned chaos for this very reason.
 
Paratus said:
538 has had Biden barely ahead in Ohio. While Trump has had a larger lead in GA but it’s closing quickly. Not sure where these will end up.

A note (not necessarily to you Amused), polling errors are not destined to only favor the GOP candidate. Historically the errors are mostly random.

For this election I think 2016 is causing an error in under estimating dem turnout causing an undercount in Dem positive polls. BUT voter suppression will likely drive down successful democratic votes.

I’m not sure which effect will be larger.
Click to expand...

Turnout? 2018 was just warming up. Trump might lose Texas.
 
Given the swing in the polls post debates and COVID hoax, this is now my prediction.

And GA is very soft for one reason: Voter suppression.

GA and Texas are going to extreme ends to suppress the vote, which is why I think the polls there do not represent the reality and why I think Biden will lose Texas and possibly GA.

XNxXL.png
 
Amused said:
Given the swing in the polls post debates and COVID hoax, this is now my prediction.

And GA is very soft for one reason: Voter suppression.

GA and Texas are going to extreme ends to suppress the vote, which is why I think the polls there do not represent the reality and why I think Biden will lose Texas and possibly GA.

View attachment 31425
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Well early voting starts on the 13th in Texas. We’re going the second day. I’ll report back what it’s like.
 
People do realize that if Trump wins America has ended. If America would elect this creep yet alone reelect this creep, it's all over America.
Predicting a EC map when Donald Trump is one of the choices is in itself twilight zone-like insanity. It's like mapping out your chances of drowning in poop or drowning in urine. What are we even doing here? There is no credibly in any if this. To partake is to partake within insanity.
 
So, what would happen if we stop counting votes after midnight--as in any uncounted ballots at 12:01 (absentee, mail-in, overseas etc.) are challenged in court and tossed out?

Well, here's what the map looks like--and Trump has the advantage going into Tuesday:

1603809917939.png
 
I have no idea what scenario you could create that would put both Arizona and Wisconsin Red. Wisconsin is polling almost 7% plus for Biden.
 
skyking said:
I have no idea what scenario you could create that would put both Arizona and Wisconsin Red. Wisconsin is polling almost 7% plus for Biden.
Click to expand...

Wisconsin will surely be red if they're counting mostly in person votes and get the mail-in votes thrown out that night. It's the red mirage. Hell similar happened in 2018 where Sinema didn't pull ahead of McSally in Arizona until a few days after the election.
 
Interesting that 538 has such a high chance of Biden win but at the same point 270towin has been slowly shifting states back to red or tossup. As of RN only 278 states for sure in Biden camp.
 
SteveGrabowski said:
Wisconsin will surely be red if they're counting mostly in person votes and get the mail-in votes thrown out that night. It's the red mirage. Hell similar happened in 2018 where Sinema didn't pull ahead of McSally in Arizona until a few days after the election.
Click to expand...
To be super-clear, the Wisconsin ruling just says they can only accept mail-in ballots through 8pm on election night, not that any ballots they have by that point will be thrown out. It's still not great, but a whole lot of mail-in ballots will still be counted.
 
ewdotson said:
To be super-clear, the Wisconsin ruling just says they can only accept mail-in ballots through 8pm on election night, not that any ballots they have by that point will be thrown out. It's still not great, but a whole lot of mail-in ballots will still be counted.
Click to expand...

I'd be surprised if more than a picayune fraction of the mailed ballots aren't received by then. The problem for Wisconsin is not that. It's that they don't allow the mail-in ballots to be counted until election day which is very stupid.
 
UNCjigga said:
So, what would happen if we stop counting votes after midnight--as in any uncounted ballots at 12:01 (absentee, mail-in, overseas etc.) are challenged in court and tossed out?

Well, here's what the map looks like--and Trump has the advantage going into Tuesday:

View attachment 32442
Click to expand...
skyking said:
I have no idea what scenario you could create that would put both Arizona and Wisconsin Red. Wisconsin is polling almost 7% plus for Biden.
Click to expand...
SteveGrabowski said:
Wisconsin will surely be red if they're counting mostly in person votes and get the mail-in votes thrown out that night. It's the red mirage. Hell similar happened in 2018 where Sinema didn't pull ahead of McSally in Arizona until a few days after the election.
Click to expand...

Rut Roh, Party Boi is here to ruin everything (possibly)
Basically saying a winner should be determined election night

www.cnn.com

Kavanaugh foreshadows how Supreme Court could disrupt vote counting

Justice Brett Kavanaugh on Monday night set the battle lines for how the Supreme Court should consider post-election lawsuits that could determine the outcome of the presidential race.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
 
Fanatical Meat said:
Rut Roh, Party Boi is here to ruin everything (possibly)
Basically saying a winner should be determined election night

www.cnn.com

Kavanaugh foreshadows how Supreme Court could disrupt vote counting

Justice Brett Kavanaugh on Monday night set the battle lines for how the Supreme Court should consider post-election lawsuits that could determine the outcome of the presidential race.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
Click to expand...

That's not what he said, at all. He referenced only ballots received after election day. All ballots received prior to State deadlines will obviously be counted. The deadline is set by State authorities, not federal judges. That's the difference between the rulings in PA & WI. It varies wildly-

www.vote.org

Absentee Ballot Deadlines - Vote.org

Absentee ballot deadlines for all 50 states. Get your ballot now. Don't miss the deadline
www.vote.org www.vote.org

So, if Trump Co doesn't like the fact that it will take longer in PA, WI & some other places then the State legislatures under GOP control could have allowed counting to start earlier, like in FL. Can't have it both ways.
 
Fenixgoon said:
Because Republicans & TX Gov. Abbott is ordering the closure of satellite ballot drop off locations

Donald Trump 2020

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forums.anandtech.com
Click to expand...
Abbot and Patrick are putrid with corruption, the worst of the worst.
 
I'm putting A LOT of trust in the common sensed side of America. Hoping that a majority of Americans can still tell the difference between good and not good, between right and not so right, and knowing a con when they see one. America, don't let me down. 😕
 
snoopy7548 said:
I'm hopeful Texas will turn blue.
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If Texas turns blue this time around, you can quit watching the counts because it's done.

I think it'll end up around 53-45-2.

Maybe 2024 IF Democrats pass a new Voting Rights Act and work their asses of registering everyone.

I still think a $1000.00 tax credit for voting in a Federal Election should be a priority. Make it fucking stupid NOT to vote.
 
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