Post-election political events prediction thread

[glenn1]

Posting this thread to openly ponder the political future now that the election results are basically known. Presuming no deus ex machina changes come and current predictions win out (Trump as President, GOP in charge of both houses of Congress), what changes do you see coming? Fine with skeptical/negative outlook predictions but let's keep it within the boundaries of reality and without the dramatic hysterics ("Trump will gas all the Jews!").

With that, my predictions:

Almost certain:

1. SCOTUS will be brought up to full strength, the 'we only need 5 justices' talk goes away\
2. Immigration enforcement is getting ramped up along with deportations.
3. Obamacare is going away, while certain elements of it may remain (e.g. pre-existing conditions, et cetera) there is no way the GOP is going to allow Obama to claim victory on that one.
4. Tax cuts are coming. Don't know the amount or composition but they are going down.


Less certain:

1. "The Wall." I'm sure some non-zero amount will get built, but not a full length of the border kinda deal like some people seem to be clamoring for.
2. Repealing/renegotiating NAFTA, etc. This is easier said than done as Trump will find out. TPP isn't dead for certain but its chances certainly aren't looking great.
3. Increased trade protectionism; bipartisan opposition in Congress will probably scuttle most of these apart from the random "import quotas on Chinese steel/toys/fill in blank here" deal.
4. Continue increased drug decriminalization. Doubt he spends a lot of the small amount of political capital he possesses fighting something very few people seem to care about.
5. Increased infrastructure spending. Good thing if managed correctly, GOP congress may kill to prioritize tax cuts instead.

Unlikely:

1. Major new abortion restrictions. Trump doesn't seem to have a super issue with abortion per past statements, he said what he needed to win the primaries but won't cause a firestorm fighting for anything beyond token restrictions.
2. Ban on Muslims, etc. Checks and balances make this a non-starter, both Legislative and Judicial will kill it if he's stupid enough to go through with it.
3. Further escalating conflict in Syria, etc. Don't think he has a lot of appetite for continuing Clinton's fight there or really gives a f**k if Assad remains in power.


Add yours.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Five Thirty Eight will no longer be trusted

 

[hal2kilo]

Five Thirty Eight will no longer be trusted

You ain't kidding.

 

[ivwshane]

Well I'm predicting all of our problems will be solved, America will be great again because that's what trump promised. Anything short of that and I'm positive Americans are dumb enough to elect trump a second term.

As Obama finishes his term I'll be looking at the stats so I can remind everyone what they were when America wasn't great.

 

[ivwshane]

Five Thirty Eight will no longer be trusted

Yep, I called that on Monday.

https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/trump-6-point-lead.2486513/page-8#post-38561447

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I really hope I post in this thread four years from now saying I'm sick of winning so often.

 

[momeNt]

A wall is relatively cheap.

Figure that there are 10,502,000 feet of border that is shared between US and Mexico.

20 feet high, 3 feet thick.

That is 23,337,777.78 cubic yards of reinforced concrete. Reinforced concrete walls should be going for no more than $700 a cubic yard. That is only $16 billion. Factor in extra logistics and whatever not for shipping aggregates and materials for concrete, and setting up concrete plants. You build that wall for less than $25 billion easy.

I sincerely hope that he creates a large portion of it under small business initiatives. I don't want a Kiewit building the whole damn thing.

 

[twinrider1]

I think your list is pretty good. A lot of the campaign bluster was just that. It is easy to say you're bringing jobs back, much harder to actually do. I think the far right and the factory workers are going to be disappointed. Technology and environmental laws have taken more jobs than trade policy. We aren't going backwards on those. Sure we'll drill more, but we aren't going to rip out automation in factories or start dumping nasty chemicals into Lake Erie again.

 

[hal2kilo]

I think your list is pretty good. A lot of the campaign bluster was just that. It is easy to say you're bringing jobs back, much harder to actually do. I think the far right and the factory workers are going to be disappointed. Technology and environmental laws have taken more jobs than trade policy. We aren't going backwards on those. Sure we'll drill more, but we aren't going to rip out automation in factories or start dumping nasty chemicals into Lake Erie again.

Drill more and sell it to who. Oil can't stay above $50 a barrel, there's so much around.

 

[KMFJD]

A wall is relatively cheap.

Figure that there are 10,502,000 feet of border that is shared between US and Mexico.

20 feet high, 3 feet thick.

That is 23,337,777.78 cubic yards of reinforced concrete. Reinforced concrete walls should be going for no more than $700 a cubic yard. That is only $16 billion. Factor in extra logistics and whatever not for shipping aggregates and materials for concrete, and setting up concrete plants. You build that wall for less than $25 billion easy.

I sincerely hope that he creates a large portion of it under small business initiatives. I don't want a Kiewit building the whole damn thing.

Won't these just circumvent that big old expensive wall?

http://www.homedepot.com/p/Werner-2...pacity-Type-III-Duty-Rating-D1124-2/203134228

 

[momeNt]

Won't these just circumvent that big old expensive wall?

http://www.homedepot.com/p/Werner-2...pacity-Type-III-Duty-Rating-D1124-2/203134228

Assault ladder bans obviously need to go in effect by the time the wall is finished. That's easy legislation though.

 

[twinrider1]

Drill more and sell it to who. Oil can't stay above $50 a barrel, there's so much around.

Fair enough. What I mean is that business may boom, but we aren't going back to the workplace of the 60s. We aren't going to open factories/offices full of people that work 30 years and get a gold watch and a pension.

 

[Genx87]

I dont have much expectation out of a Trump administration. But I hope they reduce the tax rate on foreign profits. There are trillions locked up in foreign countries because no company is dumb enough to be taxed twice on the same money when they bring it state side.

Both parties understand the issue and want to fix it. Trump discussed it in the debates. It is something he can get done that would benefit our economy.

 

[Mursilis]

I honestly don't know how much of anything can be predicted at this point, since he's been all over the map on issues. One thing's for certain - Trump stands for Trump, so enriching himself and massaging his ego will be the big goals, most likely.

 

[senseamp]

How do you retain pre-existing conditions without individual mandate? Makes no sense. People are just going to wait till they get sick to sign up.

 

[dank69]

Will he turn his assets over to a blind trust? Will anyone enforce the law if he doesn't? Will this successful businessman ever learn the definition of a blind trust? When he learns the definition and the law will he respond with "you want me to do what now?" and "never mind I don't want to be President anymore!"?

Will the TPP suddenly be "the best idea ever?" Will the GOP continue to care about deficits and debt?

 

[senseamp]

Why are people ganging up on Nate Silver? FiveThrityEight actually gave Trump a 30% chance going in, if I am not mistaken, and they took a lot of heat for giving him that high of a chance when other pollsters were giving him 10% or less. So they were actually on top of things far more than other poll aggregators.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Despite all the bluster and pandering, I think he will maintain some of the policies already in place, that are working well. Perhaps tweaking them in ways his admin thinks will yield even better results. E.G. He praised Obama's deportation policy and actions, and will likely keep them, but ramp them up priority and funding wise.

I think he will prove far more moderate than some of his base are hoping or expecting, too. He will make concession to his republican constituency on policies most important to the party. But likely try to mediate some of the animosity between parties. He has a chance to be the uniter in a way no other POTUS has in many decades. I think that because he beat down the party leadership and cowed Cruz, his biggest detractor. They simply will not have the leverage a party normally has with their candidate. It is a point on which his ego can be an asset much more than liability. As he will be able to cement a historic legacy, even among presidents, for making our political system work, even if it is done with both parties kicking and screaming along the way.

That is my hope for his admin. That he will choose country over party or private interest, and try to break the current dynamic that makes everything a tug-of-war.

 

[vi edit]

Why are people ganging up on Nate Silver? FiveThrityEight actually gave Trump a 30% chance going in, if I am not mistaken, and they took a lot of heat for giving him that high of a chance when other pollsters were giving him 10% or less. So they were actually on top of things far more than other poll aggregators.

Because people suck. I don't know a single mainstream poll that was giving even *one of* NH, MI, WI, and PA to Trump. Let alone all four. He was the most bullish on Trump and only walked back a bit in the last few days based on early voting data in Florida and NV.

She lost 20 electorates in PA by only 50k votes. Lost 10 electorates in WI by 27k votes and 16 in MI by 15k votes.

That's 46 electorates and less than 100,000 votes between three states. I'm not sure polling is able to get that accurate. Especially given the historical bias of them leaning democratic in the past.

 

[Mursilis]

Despite all the bluster and pandering, I think he will maintain some of the policies already in place, that are working well. Perhaps tweaking them in ways his admin thinks will yield even better results. E.G. He praised Obama's deportation policy and actions, and will likely keep them, but ramp them up priority and funding wise.

I think he will prove far more moderate than some of his base are hoping or expecting, too. He will make concession to his republican constituency on policies most important to the party. But likely try to mediate some of the animosity between parties. He has a chance to be the uniter in a way no other POTUS has in many decades. I think that because he beat down the party leadership and cowed Cruz, his biggest detractor. They simply will not have the leverage a party normally has with their candidate. It is a point on which his ego can be an asset much more than liability. As he will be able to cement a historic legacy, even among presidents, for making our political system work, even if it is done with both parties kicking and screaming along the way.

That is my hope for his admin. That he will choose country over party or private interest, and try to break the current dynamic that makes everything a tug-of-war.

This is surprisingly optimistic. I hope you're right.

 

[LegendKiller]

Anybody know what the stock market is doing?

 

[LegendKiller]

Why are people ganging up on Nate Silver? FiveThrityEight actually gave Trump a 30% chance going in, if I am not mistaken, and they took a lot of heat for giving him that high of a chance when other pollsters were giving him 10% or less. So they were actually on top of things far more than other poll aggregators.

So they were inaccurate, but less inaccurate than the most inaccurate that they depended on their inaccuracy for.

Well now, everything is awesome.

Garbage in, garbage out.

 

[C1]

If a Republican doesn't like guns, he doesn't buy one.
If a Democrat doesn't like guns, he wants all guns outlawed.

If a Republican is a vegetarian, he doesn't eat meat.
If a Democrat is a vegetarian, he wants all meat products banned for everyone.

If a Republican is homosexual, he quietly leads his life.
If a Democrat is homosexual, he demands legislated respect.

If a Republican is down-and-out, he thinks about how to better his situation.
If a Democrat is down-and-out he wonders who is going to take care of him.

If a Republican doesn't like a talk show host, he switches channels.
A Democrat demands that those they don't like be shut down.

If a Republican is a non-believer, he doesn't go to church.
A Democrat non-believer wants any mention of God and religion silenced.

If a Republican decides he needs health care, he goes about shopping for it, or may choose a job that provides it.
If a Democrat decides he needs health care, he demands that the rest of us pay for his.

If a Republican reads this, he'll forward it so his friends can have a good laugh.
A Democrat will delete it because he's "offended."

 

[bshole]

I predict Trump will say the following at some point in his presidency:

Praise God, gentlemen, the missiles are in the air

After that, we won't have to worry about elections again.

 

[bshole]

A wall is relatively cheap.

Figure that there are 10,502,000 feet of border that is shared between US and Mexico.

20 feet high, 3 feet thick.

That is 23,337,777.78 cubic yards of reinforced concrete. Reinforced concrete walls should be going for no more than $700 a cubic yard. That is only $16 billion. Factor in extra logistics and whatever not for shipping aggregates and materials for concrete, and setting up concrete plants. You build that wall for less than $25 billion easy.

I sincerely hope that he creates a large portion of it under small business initiatives. I don't want a Kiewit building the whole damn thing.

What, wait.... you actually believe he is going to build a wall?!!! BUWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!