Post Convetion Gallup Poll

[digitalsm]

Not a good sign for Kerry he lost %1 point and Bush gained 4% points among likely voters. There hasnt been a negative bounce since the last time a MA Democrat ran gor president.

Im to lazy to link. You can find the info on CNN, Drugde, USAToday, but more importantly Gallup.com

 

[glenn1]

I'm not surprised. I hated Kerry's speech and predicted here that his numbers would go down afterwards. His message was NOT one that resonated with the moderates and undecideds I talked to.

 

[Todd33]

I'm not sure how you bounce with so few undecideds. Only the swing states count anyhow.

 

[soundforbjt]

Newsweek had it differently. Kerry up 7.

July 31 - Coming out of the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Sen. John Kerry now holds a seven-point lead over President George W. Bush (49 percent to 42 percent) in a three-way race with independent Ralph Nader (3 percent), according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll The poll was taken over two nights, both before and after Kerry's acceptance speech.

 

[Ozoned]

NM

 

[arsbanned]

From the CNN story:

The figures from this poll supported Democrats' statements leading up to the convention that Kerry would likely not see a "bounce," the term for a temporary increase in a candidate's support after a significant event. Democrats said the Kerry campaign was already riding a bounce going into the convention.

Kerry appeared to gain slightly on the question of who is more honest and trustworthy, with 48 percent of all those interviewed choosing Kerry and 43 percent choosing Bush. Two weeks ago, they were tied at 42 percent each.

Kerry is far out in front of Bush on the question of who would unite the country. Fifty-two percent of all those interviewed said Kerry would, while only 39 percent said Bush would.

A majority of all those interviewed said they believe Kerry would handle the economy better. On that issue they favored Kerry over Bush 54-43.

And as we all know, it's the economy, stupid.

iIn short, I don't think it's as "bad" for Kerry as the cons think, at least according to the most recent polls.

 

[zephyrprime]

How exactly do they determine who a likely voter is? Do they go on past elections or do they simply ask people if they are going to vote?

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: arsbanned
From the CNN story:

The figures from this poll supported Democrats' statements leading up to the convention that Kerry would likely not see a "bounce," the term for a temporary increase in a candidate's support after a significant event. Democrats said the Kerry campaign was already riding a bounce going into the convention.

Kerry appeared to gain slightly on the question of who is more honest and trustworthy, with 48 percent of all those interviewed choosing Kerry and 43 percent choosing Bush. Two weeks ago, they were tied at 42 percent each.

Kerry is far out in front of Bush on the question of who would unite the country. Fifty-two percent of all those interviewed said Kerry would, while only 39 percent said Bush would.

A majority of all those interviewed said they believe Kerry would handle the economy better. On that issue they favored Kerry over Bush 54-43.

And as we all know, it's the economy, stupid.

iIn short, I don't think it's as "bad" for Kerry as the cons think, at least according to the most recent polls.

Basically it comes down to Q3 numbers released on Oct 29. If growth is higher than ~3.0-3.5%, say oh 4% Bush is pretty much a lock.

 

[sapiens74]

Originally posted by: zephyrprime
How exactly do they determine who a likely voter is? Do they go on past elections or do they simply ask people if they are going to vote?

No kidding.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: digitalsm

Bush is pretty much a lock.

We'll just have to dig this post of yours up after the election and see about that won't we...

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: digitalsm

Bush is pretty much a lock.

We'll just have to dig this post of yours up after the election and see about that won't we...

Nice PARTIAL QOUTE.

I said if GDP growth is ~4.0% Bush is pretty much a lock. If it comes in to much under 4% Bush is toast. If the numbers come out at over 4% its nothing but good news for Bush as the markets in the US and abroad will rally leading right up to the election. It would once and for all prove to you knuckle heads that the economy is on the upswing and Q2 truely was just a soft patch, as it historically is. Just gotta love key financial data coming in a week before the election. Bush will live and die by all those financial reports that come out on Oct 29.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: digitalsm

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: digitalsm

Bush is pretty much a lock.

We'll just have to dig this post of yours up after the election and see about that won't we...

Nice PARTIAL QOUTE.

I said if GDP growth is ~4.0% Bush is pretty much a lock. If it comes in to much under 4% Bush is toast. If the numbers come out at over 4% is not but good news for Bush as the markets in the US and abroad will rally, as it would prove Q2 truely was a soft patch, as it historically is.

Wow, what a Magical night, a Trifecta, first CAD acknowledges Rich Corporate Corruption, Rip that there is such thing as Independant Voters and now Digital not backing his Fearless Liar.

Shocking night :shocked:

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Wow, what a Magical night, a Trifecta, first CAD acknowledges Rich Corporate Corruption, Rip that there is such thing as Independant Voters and now Digital not backing his Fearless Liar.

Shocking night :shocked:

Again, where did I ever say there wasn't? Oh that's right....

CkG

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: digitalsm

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: digitalsm

Bush is pretty much a lock.

We'll just have to dig this post of yours up after the election and see about that won't we...

Nice PARTIAL QOUTE.

I said if GDP growth is ~4.0% Bush is pretty much a lock. If it comes in to much under 4% Bush is toast. If the numbers come out at over 4% is not but good news for Bush as the markets in the US and abroad will rally, as it would prove Q2 truely was a soft patch, as it historically is.

Wow, what a Magical night, a Trifecta, first CAD acknowledges Rich Corporate Corruption, Rip that there is such thing as Independant Voters and now Digital not backing his Fearless Liar.

Shocking night :shocked:

Uh where does it say I dont support Bush? Im just a realist here. If the Q3 GDP numbers come in below expectations Bush is toast. You have alot of economic data coming out shortly before the election. You'll have the Michigan Consumer Confidence numbers, the Chicago PMI, the prelim numbers for Oct, the prelim GDP numbers for Q3, and the projections for November and Q4 GDP.

 

[Siddhartha]

Post-Convention Polls Mixed on Kerry Bounce

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New polls gave a mixed picture on whether Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) got a "bounce" from the party's convention, and a CNN-USA Today Gallup poll on Sunday even showed the Democratic ticket trailing the Republicans' among likely voters.


But a Newsweek poll released on Saturday said Kerry gained a four-point boost in the polls from the Democratic National Convention held last week in Boston.


Kerry had been hoping for a measurable surge in public approval, known as a bounce, which sometimes has given nominees a double-digit boost in the polls following their four days in the spotlight at the convention.


Democrats this year have said the closely divided electorate and relatively small number of undecided voters made a big bounce unlikely.


The CNN-USA Today poll of about 1,000 respondents conducted on Friday and on Saturday showed President Bush (news - web sites) garnering 50 percent to 47 percent for Kerry among likely voters. Bush trailed Kerry among likely voters earlier in July, 47 percent to 49 percent.


Independent candidate Ralph Nader (news - web sites) garnered 2 percent.


In the Newsweek poll conducted on Thursday and on Friday, Kerry received 49 percent of the vote to Bush's 42 percent and 3 percent for independent candidate Nader. In early July, Kerry led Bush 47 percent to 44 percent, with Nader at 3 percent.


Without Nader in the race, Kerry led Bush in the new poll by 51 percent to 45 percent. The poll of about 1,000 registered voters had a 3 percent margin of error.


Either way, Kerry said he wasn't paying attention.


Appearing on "Fox News Sunday" with his running mate, Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites), he said he remembered the polls last year that showed his presidential bid staggering.


"Polls are not what's important. What's important is what we're going to do for America," Kerry said.


"I don't read polls. I really don't. They are going to go up and down. They're going to change," he added.


But a senior Kerry adviser was dismissive of CNN-USA Today poll's finding, saying it appeared to be an aberration. He cited the Newsweek poll that did show a bounce, with Kerry's image improving and a weakening in Bush's approval ratings.


"The CNN-USA Today poll does show that the race continues to be close, which everyone expected, and shows Kerry being increasingly trusted by voters on key issues," he said. "The poll does show a 'bump' for Kerry on trust on the issues and while Bush is stagnant or slipping on the economy, Iraq (news - web sites) and terrorism, Kerry moved up during convention week."


Conventions are often the first time the general public tunes into a presidential race, and polls have shown many Americans are still unfamiliar with Kerry, a four-term U.S. senator, decorated Vietnam War veteran and former prosecutor.


The CNN/USA Today Gallup poll had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.


Among registered voters, Kerry received 50 percent to 47 percent for Bush. That compared with 49 percent for Kerry and 45 percent for Bush earlier in the month. (With additional reporting by Patricia Wilson)

I am curious if Bush gets a bump from his convention.

 

[Ferocious]

Yeah.

Republicans always have an edge with lower voter turnouts.

 

[Caminetto]

"Likely voters" is the key phrase here. The push by dems will be to get the voters out. If the ?disenfranchised? or those who feel ?voting is an exercise in futility? show in November - bad news for the shrub.

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: Ferocious
Yeah.

Republicans always have an edge with lower voter turnouts.

Uh look back to 2002. The GOP for the first time got out the vote, and it helped them tremdously.