Post CFL Ryzen Price drop / SKU shuffle thoughts, predictions?

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krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
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I think nothing will change. Maybe only 1800X price might goes down, but that's it.
* i3-8xxx is better than Ryzen 3, maybe even 4c/8t Ryzen 5 in some tasks, but since you can get good AM4 board for €70-80, and until there are B/H MBs fo CL, cheapest CL boards will be 40-50€ more expensive. Therefore, no reason to go for i3 at this moment. Even if you don't need anything better than IGP, you could get cheapest dGPu for €50 which is better than Intel's IGP.
* Locked i5-8400 will probably have the same retail price as R5 1600. It will be better in some tests, worse in others. But again, for the price difference in MB, you could get R5 1600X which, will be even better than i5-8400 (avg.)
* I think locked i7-8700 will have similar perf. as R7 1700X (better in ST, better in some MT, worse in other MT tasks), and with similar (retail) price. R7 1700 will be even cheaper, but little bit worse.
* Unlocked models will be better, with possibility to reach 5 GHz, but you will need even more expensive MB and cooling, plus the CPU is more expensive, and the whole setup only makes sense for enthusiasts. I mean, for the price of i5-8600K + better Z370 board + high-end air/water cooling, you could get i7-8700 + good board + decent after-market cooler. And latter will be better in every task. So intel's biggest competition will be intel itself.
* By the time CL becomes more affordable (cheaper boards, MSRP prices), AMD will be ready to launch next Zen revision, probably with the same prices and little bit better performance. So maybe only then, they will lower Ryzen 1000 prices, but to clear the shelves, not to make price war
I think thats a good take on it.
These expensive 370 boards plus k model plus TIM issue that adds high cooling cost makes total cost explode in the real world. 8700 might be the one to go for.

Go look at the recent asrock 270 board review at AT. Its a pathetic show of shining plastic and stuff like a crappy sound opamp from 1985. Bling bling.

We also have to factor in that what decides pricing is more determined by Epyc sales than what cfl does to the market. We have a new situation here. We are not used to think about it that way but 1700 pricing is more about Amazon and facebook strategy.
Add 7700k was a really really well selling cpu. 8700 doesnt change that position but strenghten it.
 
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krumme

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2009
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I wish! Still can't get my Team Vulcan 2x8GB DDR4-3000 kit above 2667 reliably with R5 1600 CPUs in AB350M Pro4 motherboards. WITH the newest UEFI 3.10 / AGESA 1.0.0.6b.
The stilt have settings for hynix.
Post in the builders thread.
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
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cbn said:
12C/24T and lower (with validated ECC)
4C/8T FirePro APU (with 1/2 rate double precision FP on the iGPU. This with ECC enabled HBM2)

Then for most consumers....

8C/16T or 6C/12T with dGPU

Athlon x 4 4C/8T with dGPU.
That's along the lines of my thinking. I do not think AMD will need to offer a 12c/24t CPU on the consumer AM4 desktop, even with Zen2. The case for 12c on the consumer desktop really isn't there, is it? I would probably buy one for $600 or less though, if they will sell in that range.
Especially if it had 32 PCIe lanes (or whatever the maximum amount of PCIe lanes a 7nm CPU 12C die has).

P.S. I even wonder if (hopeful is a better description) 32 PCIe 3.0 lanes could happen as soon a Pinnacle Ridge. (That one will use X470 and B450 for motherboards).
 
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Topweasel

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2000
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32 lanes will not happen on AM4. There are some silly things that people get too attached to because there is some limited support in the silicon.

1. Zeppelin is already a 32 lane die. AM4 is not going support more than the 24 it already supports. This is not chip limitation but a platform limitation. So Zen 2 will not fix this.

2. Threadripper will never support 4 dies on it's current platform. Even if the chip form factor and socket are shared with EPYC.

There are more but those are the top 2. Neither of those change without a platform change. DDR5 and PCIe 4.0 are the same. Zen 2 will be on AM4 so do not expect any change till at least Zen 3, but I am guessing after that.
 
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