Possibly Israeli strike on Iran fraught with logistical difficulties.

[JEDIYoda]

The best way to quiet a barking dog that chases cars is to let it catch one. If Israel is dying for a war with Iran, let them have it. That'll shut them up real quick.

Iran is hardly capable of doing caca to Israel......
No it will not shut Israel up!!
It might shut you up...when Israel kick`s Irans behind!!

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Sorry Hayabusa Rider you impress me very little as you say " The answer is no, you cannot provide a good counter argument. An argument to be sure but one which doesn't do anything but cite itself for justification."

Which is why I assert, you too can't provide a good counterargument either, as I suggest, future events will be the proof in the pudding.

Face the facts Hayabusa, Israel has no long term sustainable options until it radically changes its policies.

Rather than engaging in a pissing contest with you, I am content to let inevitable events to play out.

Meanwhile you prove nothing to a larger world while learning nothing from the lessons of world history.

Considering that your track record of prediction is equal to that of Harold Camping I'm not worried. Just keep pushing back the Doomsday date.

 

[JEDIYoda]

Sorry Hayabusa Rider you impress me very little as you say " The answer is no, you cannot provide a good counter argument. An argument to be sure but one which doesn't do anything but cite itself for justification."

Which is why I assert, you too can't provide a good counterargument either, as I suggest, future events will be the proof in the pudding.

Face the facts Hayabusa, Israel has no long term sustainable options until it radically changes its policies.

Rather than engaging in a pissing contest with you, I am content to let inevitable events to play out.

Meanwhile you prove nothing to a larger world while learning nothing from the lessons of world history.

Meanwhile you are afraid of Hayabusa`s challenge-- I have challenged you with points which I believe stand on their merit. Can you refute them with reason? Can you show the cruelty to Iranians on the part of their leaders is a myth? Can you give a convincing argument (without mentioning Israel) why a government who does as the Iranian leaders do should be taken as trustworthy stewards of such weapons on their own merits? Not America, not Russia, not France. Iran.

Can you win the argument on merit? So far the score is hayabusa 1 -- LL --0

 

[EagleKeeper]

The underground facilities only comprise certain parts of Iran's program. Other parts are in cities, spread all over the country, etc, etc. Not only that, but I have no idea what 'previous research' you are basing this assumption on.

I believe I have linked it before, but CSIS has done an exhaustive study on the challenges of an Israeli strike on Iran. I tend to trust their work far more than yours, no offense.

For a good read on this here you guys go: http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090316_israelistrikeiran.pdf

You provided this report before and I have no fault with it.

Three caveats regarding it though

1) It is 3-4 years out of date; Israel has since obtained much more details on the internal design/weaknesses of the facilities. their weapon systems have also been upgrade in anticipation of that type of target. They may not have the official latest good stuff from the US; but they have information on how to adapt what they have for max yield.

2) It also operates on the assumption that all facilities need to be destroyed in a single strike.
Israel has the ability to perform multiple strikes over a short period of time (with days)

3) Also, because the facilities are "chained" together in terms of material feeding, impacts to only 2 of 4 key ones can severely disrupt the production.

Buildings may be protected/hardened; but the entrance to the buildings are vulnerable. Make it so the buildings below ground can not be entered can accomplish the same as the destruction of the building by Ground Penetration Bombs.
Example:
24" of poured reinforced concrete protected by blast doors can make it difficult to open up the facility.
Ventilation pipes are not protected nor are supply or personal entrances to the same level. These are deliberate openings (required) that are vulnerable to isolating the internal building. If the building itself is isolated; it is worthless to the production chain.


As to my research, this was some stuff I did for the USAF in my later years; similar to the service Command Staff College programs. Take white papers from the inside the box thinkers and develop outside the box practices.

 

[Doppel]

When the more probably result will be for the wider world, to let the wider world start a military and economic embargo against Israel instead. And let Israel pay the price for their delusions of Grander.

This nutty idea is as likely to happen as the US teaming up with Argentina against the UK over the Falklands. For a guy who apparently reads a lot you have a really hard time weighing future possibilities with future impossibilities. Your hard on for hating Israel is critically clouding your powers of observation.

 

[Jhhnn]

You provided this report before and I have no fault with it.

Three caveats regarding it though

1) It is 3-4 years out of date; Israel has since obtained much more details on the internal design/weaknesses of the facilities. their weapon systems have also been upgrade in anticipation of that type of target. They may not have the official latest good stuff from the US; but they have information on how to adapt what they have for max yield.

2) It also operates on the assumption that all facilities need to be destroyed in a single strike.
Israel has the ability to perform multiple strikes over a short period of time (with days)

3) Also, because the facilities are "chained" together in terms of material feeding, impacts to only 2 of 4 key ones can severely disrupt the production.

Buildings may be protected/hardened; but the entrance to the buildings are vulnerable. Make it so the buildings below ground can not be entered can accomplish the same as the destruction of the building by Ground Penetration Bombs.
Example:
24" of poured reinforced concrete protected by blast doors can make it difficult to open up the facility.
Ventilation pipes are not protected nor are supply or personal entrances to the same level. These are deliberate openings (required) that are vulnerable to isolating the internal building. If the building itself is isolated; it is worthless to the production chain.


As to my research, this was some stuff I did for the USAF in my later years; similar to the service Command Staff College programs. Take white papers from the inside the box thinkers and develop outside the box practices.

All of which ignores the fact that Iranian cooperation with the IAEA would end entirely, and that any reservations about creating nukes would as well. Israel alone is simply not in a position to stymie Iranian ambitions over the long run for a number of reasons, but they can create a self fulfilling prophesy of a nuclear armed & very hostile Iran simply by attacking...

Anybody who thinks that Israel's immediate neighbors might not find opportunities in all of this isn't really thinking, either. There are no guarantees that they're not planning for the possibility of most of the Israeli airforce flying off to Iran & the vulnerability of that force should their refueling ability disappear over the airspace of intervening nations... or that such nations will allow repeated violations of their airspace w/o resistance.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

All of which ignores the fact that Iranian cooperation with the IAEA would end entirely, and that any reservations about creating nukes would as well.

It would appear that cooperation is an illusion anyway.

IAEA calls it off.

 

[Jhhnn]

It would appear that cooperation is an illusion anyway.

IAEA calls it off.

False attribution. IAEA inspectors are still onsite at Iranian enrichment & processing facilities.

 

[JEDIYoda]

False attribution. IAEA inspectors are still onsite at Iranian enrichment & processing facilities.

You do not know what you are talking about --- A spokesman for the International Atomic Energy Agency said a delegation from the U.N. nuclear watchdog was returning home after being blocked by Iran from access to key records and sites.

http://news.yahoo.com/iaea-says-no-breakthrough-iran-visit-040232812.html
IAEA says no breakthrough on Iran visit

A visit to Iran by UN inspectors probing Iran's suspected nuclear weapons activities failed to achieve a breakthrough, with Tehran denying access to a key military site, the IAEA said Wednesday.

"Intensive efforts were made to reach agreement on a document facilitating the clarification of unresolved issues in connection with Iran’s nuclear programme," the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a statement.


*************************************

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_new...igation-into-nuclear-program-un-watchdog-says

Iran thwarted investigation into nuclear program, UN watchdog says

The Iranian government has blocked attempts to investigate its alleged atomic weapons work, the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog agency said Wednesday.

The U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, expressed disappointment over a lack of progress during two days of talks in Tehran over Iran's disputed nuclear program and said its request to visit a military site had not been granted.

In the second such visit in less than a month, a senior team from the IAEA had traveled to Tehran to press Iranian officials to start addressing mounting concerns that the country may be seeking to develop atomic arms.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"During both the first and second round of discussions, the agency team requested access to the military site at Parchin. Iran did not grant permission for this visit to take place," the Vienna-based IAEA said in a statement after the talks Monday and Tuesday talks in the Iranian capital.
************************************

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...2/21/gIQANEcLSR_story.html?wprss=rss_homepage

IAEA mission to Iran ends in failure

U.N. nuclear officials conceded failure on Tuesday after an extraordinary, two-day visit to Iran yielded no progress in clearing up allegations about the country’s pursuit of nuclear weapons technology.

A spokesman for the International Atomic Energy Agency said a delegation from the U.N. nuclear watchdog was returning home after being blocked by Iran from access to key records and sites. The team arrived in Tehran on Sunday at the government’s invitation to resolve long-standing disputes over whether Iranian scientists had secretly experimented with nuclear warhead designs nearly a decade ago.

 

[Muse]

I don't think Israel has the capability to carry out a strike of any lasting significance on Iran. The political fallout from any such strike would far out weight any strategic gain. Since Iran is mining it's own uranium, I'm sure the unique radiation signature of it is known to Israel, so any rogue nuclear weapon that happened to explode in Israel would be traceable, as would of course any direct attack. I think Israel will just have to settle on MAD to keep Iran in check.

It worked for Russia vs. USA. Wasn't fun, though. Theoretically, still the case, but it doesn't seem like it anymore. The Russians don't seem to care if capitalism exists on the planet these days.

However, Iran professes to believe that Isreal has no right to exist, which is troubling. Also, Isreal is pretty tiny. It wouldn't take a lot in the way of thermonuclear weaponry to wipe it completely. It's therefore understandable that Isreal would be pretty concerned.

I read that article this morning. It's not certain that Isreal could pull it off, not at all, not following the logic in the article. However, that logic and the facts/assumptions may be flawed. As noted in this thread, Israeli intelligence and the logistics of the situation are not certainly well known to us.

 

[Muse]

I note three things, (1) we have many times before war gamed on this forum what Israel can do to Iran. And what Iran can do to defend itself and then to counter attack Israel. Point granted, Israel has the conventional and nuclear capacity power to really make Iran hurt. (2) Its impossible to calculate the long term consequences of such an Israeli attack on Iran. Not only is the question what Iran would do, there is the larger question of what all the surrounding Arab nations would do in a far longer terms in terms of opting to opt for an Western oil embargo. (3) And when most nations in the world are invested in a diplomatic solution to a Iranian suspected Nuclear weapons ambition, why should the wider world permit a tiny nations like Israel to set world policy?

When the more probably result will be for the wider world, to let the wider world start a military and economic embargo against Israel instead. And let Israel pay the price for their delusions of Grander.

After all Israel has extremely dirty hands regarding it treatment of Palestinians

Do you proofread your posts? This is pathetic writing.

 

[davmat787]

Do you proofread your posts? This is pathetic writing.

I know what the problem is.

He is still flustered from when I called him out on his tendency to start a lot of sentences with the word 'as'. Since then, he has not started one sentence (that I know of) with that word, which was almost always used in an overly presumptuous manner. Since our good friend Lemon Law was overly reliant upon starting sentences with the word 'as', and his apparent refusal to use it since having been called on it, his writing has gone down hill. D:

 

[JEDIYoda]

It worked for Russia vs. USA. Wasn't fun, though. Theoretically, still the case, but it doesn't seem like it anymore. The Russians don't seem to care if capitalism exists on the planet these days.

However, Iran professes to believe that Isreal has no right to exist, which is troubling. Also, Isreal is pretty tiny. It wouldn't take a lot in the way of thermonuclear weaponry to wipe it completely. It's therefore understandable that Isreal would be pretty concerned.

I read that article this morning. It's not certain that Isreal could pull it off, not at all, not following the logic in the article. However, that logic and the facts/assumptions may be flawed. As noted in this thread, Israeli intelligence and the logistics of the situation are not certainly well known to us.

Read whatever you wish. At least you are reading! Thats a good thing!
People can speculate all they want......
Of course its not certain....duh....
If you were Israel would you let the world know what your true capabilites are? ummm...no!

Shalom

 

[gingermeggs]

Everyone, and I mean everyone (including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Abu Dhabi) would secretly or not-so-secretly cheer if Israel could permanently wipe out Iran's nuclear ambitions. The problem isn't whether that outcome is desired - it's whether it's possible.

Maybe they all ready own many Russian supplied warheads...... try it and see!
So when did Israel declare its nuke weapons and sign up to the Un non proliferation treaty?
WTF arent we now hanging them with embargoes??????(when has Indian, Korea or Pakistan either??)
Jew, Christian or Islamic; same critters- monotheist totalitarians!

 

[EagleKeeper]

All of which ignores the fact that Iranian cooperation with the IAEA would end entirely, and that any reservations about creating nukes would as well. Israel alone is simply not in a position to stymie Iranian ambitions over the long run for a number of reasons, but they can create a self fulfilling prophesy of a nuclear armed & very hostile Iran simply by attacking...

Anybody who thinks that Israel's immediate neighbors might not find opportunities in all of this isn't really thinking, either. There are no guarantees that they're not planning for the possibility of most of the Israeli airforce flying off to Iran & the vulnerability of that force should their refueling ability disappear over the airspace of intervening nations... or that such nations will allow repeated violations of their airspace w/o resistance.

The UN IAEA people just issued a statement that Iran is NOT cooperating.

Saudi has already blessed overflights if needed.
Iraq can not do anything - the US also is no longer in control of Iraq's airspace
Syria has been demonstrated to be unable to do anything.
So you are left with Turkey and Jordan.
Turkey has fighters - can they scramble for the short period of time that the IAF would be in the area is a different story.
Jordan may not do anything except file a protest and/or a nudge.

As Nebor stated; nothing prevents the IAF from making a pitstop at a abandoned field that has prepositioned fuel.

While the Iran AF may be potent on paper, the actual threat that it presents is minimal; Much would depend on how much Iran has changed its air defense system from what Syria had. Israel should have the same information and be planning accordingly.

 

[JTsyo]

Guess this assumes Israel doesn't have missiles with 1K range?

 

[fskimospy]

Guess this assumes Israel doesn't have missiles with 1K range?

No, just that it doesn't have enough or the right types to do the type of damage necessary.

 

[Nebor]

No, just that it doesn't have enough or the right types to do the type of damage necessary.

Neither do we, FWIW. Cruise missiles just aren't designed for that kind of heavy work.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Guess this assumes Israel doesn't have missiles with 1K range?

Missile payload is the issue

 

[cybrsage]

Israel has excellent guidence systems, they can hit the target, but not get the hardened structure underneath. That would take some of the most powerful US bunker busters - which still may not be strong enough (would need to do several hits on the same place).

 

[Lemon law]

All of Israeli delusions are predicated on the assumption that a pre emtive attack on Iran will have no adverse effects on Israel.

When Israel is a postage stamp sized country that can't with stand any attacks on its vital vulnerabilities. On the other hand, Iran is a very large country more dangerous wounded than it is un attacked. Nor is it likely that the house of Faud will long term survive if they grant Israel over flight rights.

Wars always look good on paper, but it seldom works out that way in the longer term. As the greatest present danger is that any such modern wars will long term benefit international terrorist organizations.

 

[EagleKeeper]

All of Israeli delusions are predicated on the assumption that a pre emtive attack on Iran will have no adverse effects on Israel.

When Israel is a postage stamp sized country that can't with stand any attacks on its vital vulnerabilities. On the other hand, Iran is a very large country more dangerous wounded than it is un attacked. Nor is it likely that the house of Faud will long term survive if they grant Israel over flight rights.

Wars always look good on paper, but it seldom works out that way in the longer term. As the greatest present danger is that any such modern wars will long term benefit international terrorist organizations.

Saudi does not have to officially grant overflight. they can just not up and challenge the IAF or mis-identify as a planned exercise.

You keep stating how Iran is dangerous; Yes you feel that Iran and it's supporters look good on paper and that is it. Iran is a paper tiger, trapped and able to growl only to its neighbors with the exception of the bee stings via proxies UNTIL it gets a nuke deterrent; allowing it to expand its influence to an offensive capability.

 

[blankslate]

Anyone who thinks Iran does not want nuclear weapons is being stupid on purpose. Seriously...ANY nation in Iran's position would want nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons make you invasion proof.

This does not mean Iran wants nuclear weapons for offense, which is where many people jump off the deep end. Iran also would not give them to terrorists. As others have said it is too easy to trace the source of the bomb.

Iran wants nuclear weapons to prevent invasion by the US. If I was the leadership of Iran, I would want nukes too. It makes sense for them. The only other alternative is to do as the US demands in all things...which they obviously refuse to do.

Pretty much this. Also our attitude toward them will also determine how they behave toward us.

Collectively we in the U.S.A. conveniently forget covert operations taken against their government by the CIA... when if similar actions were taken against our government by a foreign intelligence agency I seriously doubt that we as a people would forget or be able to forgive.


Here are a couple of clips from an interview with Martin Dempsey Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvdmBtiIhIU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnxYReNAjek



The Iranian Regime is a rational actor according to General Demspey. Remember Ahmadinejad doesn't have absolute power.

There's always the possibility that Martin Dempsey is wrong. However, if he is right a less belligerent approach should be taken with Iran until they demonstrate that they are not willing to act rationally.

Otherwise we might get involved in another ill advised military misadventure in the Middle East that could have been avoided.

 

[Jhhnn]

You do not know what you are talking about --- A spokesman for the International Atomic Energy Agency said a delegation from the U.N. nuclear watchdog was returning home after being blocked by Iran from access to key records and sites.

http://news.yahoo.com/iaea-says-no-breakthrough-iran-visit-040232812.html
IAEA says no breakthrough on Iran visit

A visit to Iran by UN inspectors probing Iran's suspected nuclear weapons activities failed to achieve a breakthrough, with Tehran denying access to a key military site, the IAEA said Wednesday.

"Intensive efforts were made to reach agreement on a document facilitating the clarification of unresolved issues in connection with Iran’s nuclear programme," the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a statement.


*************************************

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_new...igation-into-nuclear-program-un-watchdog-says

Iran thwarted investigation into nuclear program, UN watchdog says

The Iranian government has blocked attempts to investigate its alleged atomic weapons work, the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog agency said Wednesday.

The U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, expressed disappointment over a lack of progress during two days of talks in Tehran over Iran's disputed nuclear program and said its request to visit a military site had not been granted.

In the second such visit in less than a month, a senior team from the IAEA had traveled to Tehran to press Iranian officials to start addressing mounting concerns that the country may be seeking to develop atomic arms.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"During both the first and second round of discussions, the agency team requested access to the military site at Parchin. Iran did not grant permission for this visit to take place," the Vienna-based IAEA said in a statement after the talks Monday and Tuesday talks in the Iranian capital.
************************************

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...2/21/gIQANEcLSR_story.html?wprss=rss_homepage

IAEA mission to Iran ends in failure

U.N. nuclear officials conceded failure on Tuesday after an extraordinary, two-day visit to Iran yielded no progress in clearing up allegations about the country’s pursuit of nuclear weapons technology.

A spokesman for the International Atomic Energy Agency said a delegation from the U.N. nuclear watchdog was returning home after being blocked by Iran from access to key records and sites. The team arrived in Tehran on Sunday at the government’s invitation to resolve long-standing disputes over whether Iranian scientists had secretly experimented with nuclear warhead designs nearly a decade ago.

I *do* know what I'm talking about- the delegation sent to discuss inspection of additional sites went home empty handed, while the inspectors are still working at Iranian enrichment facilities.

You're just spreading your usual FUD.

 

[JEDIYoda]

while the inspectors are still working at Iranian enrichment facilities.

There are no IAEA Inspectors in Iran negotiating or working at enrichment facilities!!!! You are delusional.....unless you can produce a link...which you cannot....

You are mistakenly assumeing or for matters of spreading misinformnation that IAEA inspectors have been on the ground in Iran for a very long time -- WRONG!!!

Back that up with a link..just like I shot down your assertion with a link!!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ctors-leave-turned-away-Parchin.html?ITO=1490

What have they got to hide? UN nuclear weapons inspectors leave Iran after being turned away from key military base


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-leave-turned-away-Parchin.html#ixzz1nAId5pQL