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Poor AMD
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I believe AMD has not released anything, becuase they feel no threat (stupidly) from Intel's P4.
The P4, if left to grow, even just a little bit, could turn into an Athlon killer. AMD managed to stifle Intel's RDRAM and i820 and i840 moves, but now that they allow the P4 to gain a foothold on the market, it's here to stay, and Intel is going to use every ounce of strength it has to keep AMD off balance.
I think it's a bad decision on AMD's part not to release a faster chip (though it would have to be with those cooling and efficiency improvements IMHO, unless they don't have to up the voltage with the current core), precisely because it allows Intel some time to get a grip with the P4. The more AMD would up the clock speed (and the clock for clock speed, meaning massive FSB and memory increases would be nice ASAP), the less Intel could make on the P4. Subsequently, the less AMD could make on the Athlon.
obviously though, AMD wants to milk it's processors as much as possible, probably becuase they failed to meet goals as to how much money they should have raked in before releasing the Palomino core. If AMD was as competitive as many here think they are, they should have continued with speed updates, to create another fiasco for Intel. That's exactly what happened with nVidia and 3dfx. every time 3dfx could come out with anything, nVidia managed to at least closely out-do 3dfx (in the last case, the V5 was by most considered to be a fair bit worse then the Geforce 2). nVidia's goal was to ruin the major competition, and they sure did it. AMD however, is thinking differently.
another thing they could be doing is putting all their money and time into R&D. I personally don't like the move they're making with their next gen-processor (extending the already archaic x86 to 64 bits), and maybe they've seen the problem too.
who knows what they're up to.. another thing (which would be a better move for them) that they could be doing is working on the next generation chipset for the last Athlon, possibly called the 770. why is that so important? it's rumored to have a 200mhz fsb, with support for memory about that speed as well. I'd have to say that if they released that now, rather then with the thoroughbred, they'd really stick it to the P4 (defeating one of Intel's major advantages). the problem is, I don't know how well the Athlon can take advantage of massive amounts of memory/fsb bandwidth.
the problem there is that the P4 was designed specifically around that chipset (the i850) whereas we don't know about the Athlon, perhaps it was designed with SDRAM in mind? in any case, the Athlon should benefit to the point of competing (most likely beating becuase of it's superior FPU + equivelent FSB/memory) with the P4 in terms of FSB/Memory limited applications when using such a chipset.
The P4, if left to grow, even just a little bit, could turn into an Athlon killer. AMD managed to stifle Intel's RDRAM and i820 and i840 moves, but now that they allow the P4 to gain a foothold on the market, it's here to stay, and Intel is going to use every ounce of strength it has to keep AMD off balance.
I think it's a bad decision on AMD's part not to release a faster chip (though it would have to be with those cooling and efficiency improvements IMHO, unless they don't have to up the voltage with the current core), precisely because it allows Intel some time to get a grip with the P4. The more AMD would up the clock speed (and the clock for clock speed, meaning massive FSB and memory increases would be nice ASAP), the less Intel could make on the P4. Subsequently, the less AMD could make on the Athlon.
obviously though, AMD wants to milk it's processors as much as possible, probably becuase they failed to meet goals as to how much money they should have raked in before releasing the Palomino core. If AMD was as competitive as many here think they are, they should have continued with speed updates, to create another fiasco for Intel. That's exactly what happened with nVidia and 3dfx. every time 3dfx could come out with anything, nVidia managed to at least closely out-do 3dfx (in the last case, the V5 was by most considered to be a fair bit worse then the Geforce 2). nVidia's goal was to ruin the major competition, and they sure did it. AMD however, is thinking differently.
another thing they could be doing is putting all their money and time into R&D. I personally don't like the move they're making with their next gen-processor (extending the already archaic x86 to 64 bits), and maybe they've seen the problem too.
who knows what they're up to.. another thing (which would be a better move for them) that they could be doing is working on the next generation chipset for the last Athlon, possibly called the 770. why is that so important? it's rumored to have a 200mhz fsb, with support for memory about that speed as well. I'd have to say that if they released that now, rather then with the thoroughbred, they'd really stick it to the P4 (defeating one of Intel's major advantages). the problem is, I don't know how well the Athlon can take advantage of massive amounts of memory/fsb bandwidth.
the problem there is that the P4 was designed specifically around that chipset (the i850) whereas we don't know about the Athlon, perhaps it was designed with SDRAM in mind? in any case, the Athlon should benefit to the point of competing (most likely beating becuase of it's superior FPU + equivelent FSB/memory) with the P4 in terms of FSB/Memory limited applications when using such a chipset.
There is no way that AMD is able to churn out 1.6 CPU's at this time. Just because Compuwiz can up the voltage and get them to run there doesn't mean a thing. I can run my P4 at 1875 mhz by upping the Voltage and doesn't even brake 40C in temp does this mean Intel can produce these parts right now. I think not !!!!
The wattage the current Tbird sucks up and the heat it produces is killing its chances for much more speed period. The Pally better do some serious addressing of this problem.
The wattage the current Tbird sucks up and the heat it produces is killing its chances for much more speed period. The Pally better do some serious addressing of this problem.
<< I believe AMD has not released anything, becuase they feel no threat (stupidly) from Intel's P4. >>
AMD's executives are not fools in any way, shape or form. They have access to Intel's roadmap, they have access to sales numbers, they know a lot more than we do on this subject, and they are an extremely smart and competent group of individuals. It is completely and utterly inconceiveable to me that they are not releasing a faster product because they are resting on their laurels. There is a technical reason: it could be speed bins (probably), it could well be heat (a linear extrapolation of power has the max. power of a 1.5GHz CPU at over 80W), it may well be something that I'm not thinking of, but it is most certainly not that they are happy with what they currently have.
Mass manufacturing of an extremely complex piece of equipment like a CPU requires a huge amount of testing, validation, quality and reliability analysis. That is why it takes a long time to get a CPU from tape-out to full production. It's not a matter of simply saying "We need a new product. Have the boys in the lab whip us up something that we can sell." It's not even, "we have a few parts running 1.6GHz, tell the fab guys to get us more of these so that we can intro a new product." Design and mass manufacture of a CPU requires forecasting years in advance of delivery. It requires a huge chain of links in a complex chain that involves hundreds of people and usually several companies.
I apologize if I'm coming on strongly in this post, but I see a lot of people on this BBS who seem to think that we can think better than CEO's can - or who don't quite realize how difficult (and lengthy) of a process releasing a new CPU is and how much of a complex juggling act it is.
PCResources
Banned
<< There is no way that AMD is able to churn out 1.6 CPU's at this time. >>
Are you sure of that?
Patrick Palm
PC Resources
PCResources
Banned
<< There is a technical reason: it could be speed bins (probably), it could well be heat (a linear extrapolation of power has the max. power of a 1.5GHz CPU at over 80W), it may well be something that I'm not thinking of, but it is most certainly not that they are happy with what they currently have. >>
You are wrong, even though i was pleased to see your compliments directed at AMD (which actually made me change my opinion about your bias) there is a new core, coming out, it will be able to push the T-bird past the 2Ghz limit, and that is all, do not ask me about it, because frankly, i am not admitted to give you any more info..
Patrick Palm
PC Resources
Neither company wants to escalate megahertz race at the moment.
Intel could release 1,7GHz p4 tomorrow and kill its own profit margins.
Ditto AMD 1.5GHz Athlon.
Reduced demand is a problem, so right now its all about cutting costs.
In other words both companies have some pressing concerns
other than releasing faster CPUs.
Intel could release 1,7GHz p4 tomorrow and kill its own profit margins.
Ditto AMD 1.5GHz Athlon.
Reduced demand is a problem, so right now its all about cutting costs.
In other words both companies have some pressing concerns
other than releasing faster CPUs.
Oh I don't doubt that AMD has a new core coming out, that will do very good things for AMD.
However, that has no bearing on their excuse not to release it now. Except the fact that it's not ready. I cannot conceive of a good reason not to release a cpu which could seriously impact the market and possibly put them on top of Intel, unless it's not ready.
However, that has no bearing on their excuse not to release it now. Except the fact that it's not ready. I cannot conceive of a good reason not to release a cpu which could seriously impact the market and possibly put them on top of Intel, unless it's not ready.
PCResources
Banned
<< Except the fact that it's not ready >>
It is.. no more from me in this thread...
Patrick Palm
PC Resources
PC Resources (Patrick Palm):
🙂 This is the second time I've seen you make reference to some "secret development" that we peons aren't allowed to know about. And, quite frankly, I'm wondering how you expect us to believe you. 🙂 I'm not saying I don't, and I'd love it if these were true (my own personal AMD bias 🙂), but can you offer any proof that you know what you're talking about? 'Cause, no offense, right now you sound a lot like GUTB (if you know who he is).
Epsilon
🙂 This is the second time I've seen you make reference to some "secret development" that we peons aren't allowed to know about. And, quite frankly, I'm wondering how you expect us to believe you. 🙂 I'm not saying I don't, and I'd love it if these were true (my own personal AMD bias 🙂), but can you offer any proof that you know what you're talking about? 'Cause, no offense, right now you sound a lot like GUTB (if you know who he is).
Epsilon
PCResources
Banned
<< but can you offer any proof that you know what you're talking about? >>
No i cannot, for obvious reasons, you will just have to wait and see... it is your choice if you want to believe me or not, nobody thought that i was right about NVidias 3dfx buyout, but that is a different story...
<< This is the second time I've seen you make reference to some "secret development" that we peons aren't allowed to know about >>
Which was the first time, could it be the ATI-Matrox issue which will soon be known? Or maybe the merger between Quantum and Maxtor, which has already happened, or maybe the buyout of 3Dfx... which has also happened...
<< 'Cause, no offense, right now you sound a lot like GUTB >>
Yeah, i know who that guy was, but it would be hard not to take offense when you say i sound like him...
Patrick Palm
PC Resources
PM, the problem with that is the fact that AMD has had samples of this core for a while. why can't they simply mass produce it? did they mess up in the modification of the core (cough P3 1.13ghz cough)? perhaps.
however, there are business reasons not to release it. as mentioned above, Intel COULD release a faster P4, but they won't, unless AMD releases something, who won't release something until Intel does.
well, not quite, but that's what appears to be going on. they've hurt each other quite a bit when it comes to profits with this massive race to higher mhz, and each appears to be agreeing to hold off for a while to recover.
the problem with this theory is that Intel has massive resources to draw upon, so in theory they don't really need to recover. so why aren't they simply annihilating (spelling??) AMD with high mhz P4s? most likely simply because they want higher profits. after all, look at the economy supposedly slowing down, they're scared, and want to make the best of the situation.
also, PM about that point where people here think they could manage a company better. you're most likely correct, however, not in all cases!
look at the 3dfx case (again.. sigh). The guy on top was the type of person who makes/buys a company, makes them worth a ton, and then sells them for insanely high prices. In this case, he saw 3dfx as a sinking boat, and saw nVidia as a golden parachute which would solve his problem, as well as make him even more rich!
many people on this forum would have wanted things to happen differently. we will never know now if 3dfx would have been capable of pulling itself out with it's next card, but IMHO, you should at least go down fighting, rather then giving up like what happened (the end result would be either 3dfx going Chapter 11, and being bought anyway, or that they would have survived to fight another day.
some chance is better then none, correct?
even some nVidia zealots agree that having 3dfx around was good, simply for competition.
formulav8, I believe that was a Palomino core, but even then, that's still an incredibly impressive feat for such a high watt/heat usage/creating CPU.
however, there are business reasons not to release it. as mentioned above, Intel COULD release a faster P4, but they won't, unless AMD releases something, who won't release something until Intel does.
well, not quite, but that's what appears to be going on. they've hurt each other quite a bit when it comes to profits with this massive race to higher mhz, and each appears to be agreeing to hold off for a while to recover.
the problem with this theory is that Intel has massive resources to draw upon, so in theory they don't really need to recover. so why aren't they simply annihilating (spelling??) AMD with high mhz P4s? most likely simply because they want higher profits. after all, look at the economy supposedly slowing down, they're scared, and want to make the best of the situation.
also, PM about that point where people here think they could manage a company better. you're most likely correct, however, not in all cases!
look at the 3dfx case (again.. sigh). The guy on top was the type of person who makes/buys a company, makes them worth a ton, and then sells them for insanely high prices. In this case, he saw 3dfx as a sinking boat, and saw nVidia as a golden parachute which would solve his problem, as well as make him even more rich!
many people on this forum would have wanted things to happen differently. we will never know now if 3dfx would have been capable of pulling itself out with it's next card, but IMHO, you should at least go down fighting, rather then giving up like what happened (the end result would be either 3dfx going Chapter 11, and being bought anyway, or that they would have survived to fight another day.
some chance is better then none, correct?
even some nVidia zealots agree that having 3dfx around was good, simply for competition.
formulav8, I believe that was a Palomino core, but even then, that's still an incredibly impressive feat for such a high watt/heat usage/creating CPU.
PC Resources:
Hey, don't be offended! 🙂 I'm not saying I doubt it, 'cause I read something about AMD licensing some sort of "perfect silicon" which would allow them to ramp up speeds nicely. I'm just curious because you might be wrong, or mistaken, or whatever...
To be honest, you remind me of Deep Throat from the X-Files. Some guy who mysteriously comes out of the woodwork and reveals top secret information that's always dead on... 😀 Thing that always interested me was, how did he get his information? So I guess that's what I'm asking: If you can give me any clues as to how you get your info (nothing specific, of course), it would help your case considerably...
Oh, and I'm sorry, but I don't remember the other issue you hinted at. But that's the reason I remember your name, 'cause you did hint at something before...
Anway, thanks.
Epsilon
Hey, don't be offended! 🙂 I'm not saying I doubt it, 'cause I read something about AMD licensing some sort of "perfect silicon" which would allow them to ramp up speeds nicely. I'm just curious because you might be wrong, or mistaken, or whatever...
To be honest, you remind me of Deep Throat from the X-Files. Some guy who mysteriously comes out of the woodwork and reveals top secret information that's always dead on... 😀 Thing that always interested me was, how did he get his information? So I guess that's what I'm asking: If you can give me any clues as to how you get your info (nothing specific, of course), it would help your case considerably...
Oh, and I'm sorry, but I don't remember the other issue you hinted at. But that's the reason I remember your name, 'cause you did hint at something before...
Anway, thanks.
Epsilon
Recession yes, but that doesn't mean that they can sit idle. It's been nothing since Oct. 2000!!!! They have had time
As far as killing their profits, how is selling your higheset grade at $200 when it probably appeared close to double that more than 5 months ago. They haven't had a processor to price higher than the falllllliiiinggg price of 1.2ghz. They could sell a higher priced part.
I don't see anything wrong with their attempt at x86-64 computing, but I'm not educated enough in that regard. I do know that AMD has the creator of Linux working on software for the hammer line though. Nice touch.
As far as killing their profits, how is selling your higheset grade at $200 when it probably appeared close to double that more than 5 months ago. They haven't had a processor to price higher than the falllllliiiinggg price of 1.2ghz. They could sell a higher priced part.
I don't see anything wrong with their attempt at x86-64 computing, but I'm not educated enough in that regard. I do know that AMD has the creator of Linux working on software for the hammer line though. Nice touch.
EpsiIon GUTB good one that's funny. I dought he's that extreme though 😉.
jeffrey you make a valid point AMD is on a tight pricing situation. There top chip is selling at mid 200.00s. This is not exactly a get rich situation. I still say that if they had it they would release it and it wouldn't hurt there bottom line it would help it. I'm not saying that they don't have something coming up that will clock higher. But at this time I say they don't. The 1.3 and 1.33 haven't even shown up on pricewatch yet. This seems to me like it proves that they are having yeild problems with the current core.
jeffrey you make a valid point AMD is on a tight pricing situation. There top chip is selling at mid 200.00s. This is not exactly a get rich situation. I still say that if they had it they would release it and it wouldn't hurt there bottom line it would help it. I'm not saying that they don't have something coming up that will clock higher. But at this time I say they don't. The 1.3 and 1.33 haven't even shown up on pricewatch yet. This seems to me like it proves that they are having yeild problems with the current core.
We are not in a recession yet, quit spreading nonsense.
AMD needs to get an entry into the notebook market fast. They need to be able to compete with Intel in every area because Intel has the name brand. AMD is finally getting some multi-processor boards in development, so high-end notebooks are all that is left. The K6 certainly is not going to handle it anymore.
AMD needs to get an entry into the notebook market fast. They need to be able to compete with Intel in every area because Intel has the name brand. AMD is finally getting some multi-processor boards in development, so high-end notebooks are all that is left. The K6 certainly is not going to handle it anymore.
<< . The 1.3 and 1.33 haven't even shown up on pricewatch yet. This seems to me like it proves that they are having yeild problems with the current core. >>
The chips have shown up on pricewatch, do a search for AMD 1.3 GHz & AMD 1.33 GHz. The 1.3 GHz has one dealer selling at ~$279 shipped, with most at ~$300. Of course many of these vendors haven't received these chips yet. Fewer vendors have listed the 1.33 GHz yet, and it looks around $20 more than the 1.3 GHz.
I have to agree with our two knowledgeable Intel enginners, that there is definitely a reason AMD has not released a faster chip yet, besides wanting to maximize profits...the 1.2 GHz chip is selling so cheap right now, it can hardly be very profitable..the PC industry and espically the CPU industry have slowed down greatly since a year ago in March, when the 1 GHz chips were released - all we have advanced since then is a Athlon with ondie cache, which was long overdue, a measly 200 MHz with the Athlons (I won't consider the 1.3 & 1.33 GHz chips available yet, since they haven't been announced/reviewed), and the release of a Pentium 4 which is clearly a step backward with regard to currently available applications and games that are not optimized for SSE2.
I hope we get some more excitement in this industry, and soon....
The users in these forums are in no way representative of the real PC market. With my current machine, I myslef consider myself an outsider.
As stated above, the last thing Intel and AMD want is a MHz race. Although each wants to be the MHz king, they are no longer willing to sacrafice profits in a great respect(they can't afford to in these economic times). MHz ratings for the past few years have been over-rated anyways. Benchmarks are the only true guides of speen any more (and those in themselves can get twisted).
I am writing this on a dinasour (PII 266 (ASUS p2-l97-s with 128MB RAM and a cheapie Viper 330 video card). I dont play games and use my machine for playing with a few OS's (Linux/Win2k) and am heaviliy into networking. The machine cannot do what I need to do anymore and am therefore going to upgrade. I will be buying a 1Ghz+ AMD powered machine.
I would not have even considered AMD 1-1.5 years ago. I simply did not believe in the product at that time. AMD is getting my money for one main reason ($$$ PRICE $$$). I cannot get a similarily powered machine for close to the same amount (DAMN RDRAM).
AMD is at a really curcial point now. They have won over many budged PC buyers and a good portion of the high end market (tweakers and overclockers). They need a catalyst to get them into the middle ground. Unless AMD can get their processors into the corporate world (notebooks/servers/workstations) they do not stand a chance. Once AMD starts to gets penetration into these markets, Intel is in deep deep trouble.
As stated above, the last thing Intel and AMD want is a MHz race. Although each wants to be the MHz king, they are no longer willing to sacrafice profits in a great respect(they can't afford to in these economic times). MHz ratings for the past few years have been over-rated anyways. Benchmarks are the only true guides of speen any more (and those in themselves can get twisted).
I am writing this on a dinasour (PII 266 (ASUS p2-l97-s with 128MB RAM and a cheapie Viper 330 video card). I dont play games and use my machine for playing with a few OS's (Linux/Win2k) and am heaviliy into networking. The machine cannot do what I need to do anymore and am therefore going to upgrade. I will be buying a 1Ghz+ AMD powered machine.
I would not have even considered AMD 1-1.5 years ago. I simply did not believe in the product at that time. AMD is getting my money for one main reason ($$$ PRICE $$$). I cannot get a similarily powered machine for close to the same amount (DAMN RDRAM).
AMD is at a really curcial point now. They have won over many budged PC buyers and a good portion of the high end market (tweakers and overclockers). They need a catalyst to get them into the middle ground. Unless AMD can get their processors into the corporate world (notebooks/servers/workstations) they do not stand a chance. Once AMD starts to gets penetration into these markets, Intel is in deep deep trouble.
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