Polls show a lock for Romney

[dmcowen674]

7-31-2012

http://news.yahoo.com/add-it-up--the-prediction-models-look-dismal-for-obama--can-he-still-win-.html

The prediction models look dismal for Obama



It’s not just the torrent of polls that we have to deal with, but the numbers that supposedly forecast Presidential elections with uncanny accuracy.



The jobless rate has been stuck at just above 8 per cent for months; you have to go back to 1936 to find a President re-elected with a higher unemployment rate. And in Franklin D. Roosevelt’s case, it was a far better number than he had inherited. Plus, growth was booming.


The consumer confidence level is now about 60 per cent. No incumbent party has ever kept the White House with a number anything like that. (It was slightly higher, at 65 per cent, in 1980 when Carter lost in a landslide.)



The core question for many voters—“Are you generally satisfied with the country’s direction, or has the U.S. gone off on the wrong track”—gets a 32.7-60.7 negative answer, according to the RealClearPolitics average.



Generally, an incumbent party needs to have at least a 35% positive response to this question to win the election, says the Gallup Organization.

There is no way an incumbent President could get re-elected given these current numbers.

 

[dmcowen674]

The Polls are never wrong

 

[bfdd]

Except this one is and Romney won't win. IMO these are polls geared to spur up his "enemies" and get the opposite rallied up to vote against him. He has no chance and when he loses I'll say "I told you so". Obama was a lock the moment the GOP put that horse and pony show up to make Romney look less ridiculous.

 

[Lash444]

I'm more likely to believe the U.S. men won't win basketball gold, or that chinese girl didn't do steroids.

 

[Spungo]

Just an FYI with the prediction market
Obama to win election - 57.6%
Romney to win election - 39.9%

Now is a good time to buy Romney shares if you're confident he will win. The share price increases as more and more people think he will win.

 

[glenn1]

Obama could still pull out the victory, but agree the polls and trends don't seem to be going his way. The country will be fine regardless of who wins; neither center-right Romney nor center-left Obama is particularly radical in their thinking although both can have their moments. Hopefully if Romney wins he'll be a pragmatic problem solver in the George H.W. Bush mold or Clinton later in his term; and if Obama wins he'll address the core problems with Obamacare and the deficit.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Don't worry Dave the Labor Department is helping Obama.

In all seriousness the election will hinge on the independents as usual, but I have no idea how that will shake out this time.

 

[cubby1223]

Remember when polls said Palin as the V.P. candidate was the lock for McCain to win the election?

Remember when polls said Al Gore won Florida?

 

[NeoV]

the election will hinge on the independents as usual

not trying to be confrontational - but can you explain that?

 

[cubby1223]

not trying to be confrontational - but can you explain that?

Those on "the right" will not vote for Obama, and those on "the left" will not vote for Romney. The only group in question is "the middle".

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Anyone who believes this garbage doesn't understand how the electoral college works, or isn't looking at the state polls.

 

[Ryan]

not trying to be confrontational - but can you explain that?

Many people will say that independents are the ones who actually decide the election. The idea is that when it comes down to party allegiance, Democrats and Republicans have near equal turnout and largely negate each other. Let's say that Dems and Repubs each garner 45% of the electorate - 90% of the votes are locked up - leaving the remaining independent voters to sway the election one way or the other.

I would say that proof of this can been seen when candidates clear the primaries - they almost always tack away from their party's core values and more toward the center on issues. They know that in the end game, it's people with no party allegiance who will be the ones to sway the election.

 

[momeNt]

Did Romney visit the Bohemian Grove and drink, smoke, and pee in the woods? His religion only allows him to do one of the three.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Many people will say that independents are the ones who actually decide the election. The idea is that when it comes down to party allegiance, Democrats and Republicans have near equal turnout and largely negate each other. Let's say that Dems and Repubs each garner 45% of the electorate - 90% of the votes are locked up - leaving the remaining independent voters to sway the election one way or the other.

I would say that proof of this can been seen when candidates clear the primaries - they almost always tack away from their party's core values and more toward the center on issues. They know that in the end game, it's people with no party allegiance who will be the ones to sway the election.

Yep, that's my take. The ratio of Democrats and Republicans is nearly 1:1. While this occasionally varies, the overwhelming majority of noncommitted voters are by definition independent. Depending on the particular election they weigh in on one side or another. This time I don't sense an affinity for anyone, and my sense is there is a general dissatisfaction. That means that independent voter turnout could be low, however the mandate wasn't a particularly welcome thing by the majority. Will that bring enough voters out? I don't know. Will they be able to hold their nose and vote for Romney? I can't say that either.

All I know is that it seems we have a particularly egregious case of Hobson's Choice from a non party affiliated POV.

 

[CallMeJoe]

Dave the prognosticator!
He was spot-on with his predictions of a big McCain/Palin win in 2008, and I think he's nailed it again!

When do we get the color-coded Electoral College maps?

 

[Born2bwire]

Dave the prognosticator!
He was spot-on with his predictions of a big McCain/Palin win in 2008, and I think he's nailed it again!

When do we get the color-coded Electoral College maps?

It's unnecessary, just imagine an entire map that's red!

 

[Anarchist420]

I think the elections will be cancelled by Obama invoking martial law, cancelled by rebellion, or cancelled by a fascist plot. I think there is going to be some kind of october surprise and that it's not going to pretty for most.

A rebellion is likely because so few people support the candidates they have to choose from.

Romney is a social nationalist, so he could be convinced that he'd lose the election and then get Wall Street to overthrow the incumbent.

The executive power could do something then enact martial excuse as an excuse to keep the people safe.

Any of those 3 scenarios are more realistic than having an election where Romney or Obama peaceably concede to their other half as neither half is capable of doing so.

 

[CallMeJoe]

I think the elections will be cancelled by Obama invoking martial law, cancelled by rebellion, or cancelled by a fascist plot. I think there is going to be some kind of october surprise and that it's not going to pretty for most.
A rebellion is likely because so few people support the candidates they have to choose from.
Romney is a social nationalist, so he could be convinced that he'd lose the election and then get Wall Street to overthrow the incumbent.
The executive power could do something then enact martial excuse as an excuse to keep the people safe.
Any of those 3 scenarios are more realistic than having an election where Romney or Obama peaceably concede to their other half as neither half is capable of doing so.

There just are not adequate words...

 

[woodie1]

Here it is only July and the November elections have been decided. Now can we please stop all the election ads and get on with our lives.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

There just are not adequate words...

It throttles the imagination!

 

[Charles Kozierok]

I think the elections will be cancelled by Obama invoking martial law, cancelled by rebellion, or cancelled by a fascist plot. I think there is going to be some kind of october surprise and that it's not going to pretty for most.

Been hearing this every four years since the Clinton days. I'm sure it goes back a lot further than that.

 

[Sonikku]

A good omen. Romney MUST be president, nothing will ever get done otherwise. Liberals stand in the way of progress. The house has voted against Obama care 30 times now. That's time that COULD be spent towards helping America. Yet, Liberals in the Senate and White House continue to ignore it or vote it down. Only when the Liberals are replaced can the stagnation in government come to an end.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Romney has zero chance, I repeat zero chance of winning this election.

His tax return drama is going to do him in as well as Bain. Once the public turns their full attention back to the election this will all get kicked up again in full force.

 

[jhu]

The Polls are never wrong

Dewey defeats Truman! The Dewey presidency clearly got us through WWII.

 

[monovillage]

Who's the Governor of Wisconsin again? Ohhh it's Walker!
lmao