Polling question

[echo4747]

How are people usually contacted to participate in polls for US presidential elections? I would assume telephone calls. There reason I ask is that I've never been contacted/questioned by any polling firms . Some details:

-1986-1995 was a renter
-1995-present been a homeowner
- always resided in Western NY area
-always had a landline phone and cellphone (since the early flip phone days)
- have rec'd an occasional phone message from a candidate asking for my support ( local elections only)

 

[manly]

Some discussion here:

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[Stokely]

I have wondered about polls myself, especially since most people I know:
- don't have a land line
- don't answer random calls

 

[hal2kilo]

I have wondered about polls myself, especially since most people I know:
- don't have a land line
- don't answer random calls

Or any email surveys.

 

[dullard]

Many polls are conducted with just a few thousand people. Look at the counts in the 2nd column in the image below. Now, there are ~245 million US adults. If there are 1,858 people polled like in the most recent poll, then less than one out of every 131,000 US adults are polled for any typical poll.

You are almost 10x more likely to be struck by lightning. You probably won't ever be polled in your life for a presidential poll. You probably will never meet anyone who has ever been polled.

Most polls are over the phone. Yes, there are people who don't answer phones. But that is not a particularly republican or democratic trait. People on both sides don't answer phones and it mostly counteracts. It isn't a perfect 50/50 split, but that can be corrected for if the pollsters do their job and correct for that bias.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

 

[nakedfrog]

I've been polled before, generally more for state/local stuff. I've gotten a few polling calls this year, not sure if they were for President or not, because I no longer reside in the state my area code is associated with, and they're specifically looking for residents of that state so they don't ask me questions beyond that point.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Most polls are over the phone. Yes, there are people who don't answer phones. But that is not a particularly republican or democratic trait.

Really? Younger people skew Democratic in their voting and they don't pick up unknown numbers. Old people do, at least the ones I know. Probably why they're such great targets for scammers since they didn't grow up with constant phone scams the way anyone 35 and under has.

 

[Indus]

I generally pick up random calls on my phone and I've gotten 2 polling calls.. last one was 2016 and the first one was 2004.

I think polls in NY are somewhat rare since it's a blue state and it's quite population.. more likely to get one if you lived in a swing state or in one with a somewhat smaller population so they have to call you again.

Both times they dialed my cell phone though.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Closest I ever got to being polled was right after the Spurs won the 1999 championship and someone called asking if I liked the Coyote (the Spurs mascot) and Antonio Daniels (deep bench player on the team) and whether seeing them do an ad campaign together would make me buy more Mountain Dew.

 

[dank69]

I'm sure a majority of the polling focuses heavily on swing states and swing districts.

 

[Moonbeam]

I know nothing about most subjects including this one. But I do believe and have for quite some time that Democrats are going to win. I think a majority of voters are not insane and don't live in an altered cult reality.

 

[nickqt]

I know nothing about most subjects including this one. But I do believe and have for quite some time that Democrats are going to win. I think a majority of voters are not insane and don't live in an altered cult reality.

That's what I thought in 2016. There's 70+ million fucking morons in this country who know how to get to the election booth to pull the lever for the outright authoritarian scumbag who shouldn't be allowed outside of a penitentiary.

Register to vote. Get your non-fascist allies to register to vote. Check your registration status. Get to the election booth, preferably early and in person. And help your non-fascist allies to get to the election booth.

No amount of polls or good feelings or hope or anything other than votes is sufficient. No one knows who is going to win, because there hasn't been one vote cast as of yet. It's not destiny and there is no such thing as electoral momentum. Either there are enough votes or there aren't.

 

[MtnMan]

I have landline and cell. On the cell, virtually nothing gets through, using Google Pixel call screening.

Landline, with Spectrum filtering, and Nomorobo, some get through.

Yesterday a Caller ID with 'research' in the ID showed up, so I answered, and it was a survey. But very limited, only about local bond referendums that will be on the ballot. Figure the city provided numbers, as I have signed up to get alerts from the city.

But otherwise I just don't answer.

 

[ondma]

I know nothing about most subjects including this one. But I do believe and have for quite some time that Democrats are going to win. I think a majority of voters are not insane and don't live in an altered cult reality.

Popular vote, pretty sure will go for Harris. Unfortunately, the electoral vote is much more problematical. I didn't particularly like the economic program she set out today. It has some good points, but overall it seems more like promoting inflation (and increasing taxes to pay for the directed benefits) rather than decreasing it.

 

[Moonbeam]

That's what I thought in 2016. There's 70+ million fucking morons in this country who know how to get to the election booth to pull the lever for the outright authoritarian scumbag who shouldn't be allowed outside of a penitentiary.

Register to vote. Get your non-fascist allies to register to vote. Check your registration status. Get to the election booth, preferably early and in person. And help your non-fascist allies to get to the election booth.

No amount of polls or good feelings or hope or anything other than votes is sufficient. No one knows who is going to win, because there hasn't been one vote cast as of yet. It's not destiny and there is no such thing as electoral momentum. Either there are enough votes or there aren't.

Think as you wish. In 2016 I knew Trump would win. I don't think so today. Just a gut feeling, I guess, like last time.

 

[Moonbeam]

Popular vote, pretty sure will go for Harris. Unfortunately, the electoral vote is much more problematical. I didn't particularly like the economic program she set out today. It has some good points, but overall it seems more like promoting inflation (and increasing taxes to pay for the directed benefits) rather than decreasing it.

Inflation, in my opinion is a corporate strategy to raise prices when Democrats are in power and for the purpose of getting the public to vote against the Dems in the next election. I believe billions have been spent convincing the American public to believe the bull shit you espouse. I believe that a sufficient number of people have realize that conservatives believe in lies they will no longer buy. You ought to join them.

What would happen if you suddenly realized that you don't know anything. Belief is a self imposed prison.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

That's what I thought in 2016. There's 70+ million fucking morons in this country who know how to get to the election booth to pull the lever for the outright authoritarian scumbag who shouldn't be allowed outside of a penitentiary.

Register to vote. Get your non-fascist allies to register to vote. Check your registration status. Get to the election booth, preferably early and in person. And help your non-fascist allies to get to the election booth.

No amount of polls or good feelings or hope or anything other than votes is sufficient. No one knows who is going to win, because there hasn't been one vote cast as of yet. It's not destiny and there is no such thing as electoral momentum. Either there are enough votes or there aren't.

In 2016 Trump cleverly ran to the left of Hillary on a lot of issues at Bannon's insistence, which might have suckered some swing voters who didn't know him even though everything he said to the left of Hillary was a boldfaced lie. E.g., how he'd increase taxes on the rich, even himself or the universal healthcare plan that was always two weeks away, etc. In 2020 hard to run on that after four years of fascism so he ran on confederate statues being taken down WTF. But I remember in 2016 my mom's oncologist thought the fascist shit with Trump was an act to drum turnout and he's probably way better informed than the average voter since the ACA that Trump wanted to eliminate is pretty important to him, but he didn't know for instance that Trump's mentor way Roy Cohn, and he was shocked and his face went white when I told him that (Cohn was McCarthy's attorney during the red scare for people who don't know, so yeah, that's the shitbag who molded Trump into the sociopath he is now).

At least Harris seems smart enough to run a campaign from the left so Trump can't beat her there like he did Clinton. Still scary how close the nazi came to winning in 2020 though and if Harris can't drive good turnout the nazi will again.

 

[MrSquished]

I think if all votes are counted free and fairly, Harris/Walz will destroy Trump in November.

We just have to prep for the inevitable Democracy overthrowing efforts by the MAGA and @Greenman party.

 

[BoomerD]

We get calls every couple of days. As soon as they identify themselves as taking a survey, “No thanks. Good bye.” <click>

 

[BoomerD]

I think if all votes are counted free and fairly, Harris/Walz will destroy Trump in November.

We just have to prep for the inevitable Democracy overthrowing efforts by the MAGA and @Greenman party.

That’s the thing that could be a problem. Trumpsters have been taking over election departments in many jurisdictions almost nationwide…they’ll be in a position to deny certain voters, to disqualify other voters…pushing the votes to Trump…or at least, giving the deniers more power to claim fraud.

 

[ondma]

Inflation, in my opinion is a corporate strategy to raise prices when Democrats are in power and for the purpose of getting the public to vote against the Dems in the next election. I believe billions have been spent convincing the American public to believe the bull shit you espouse. I believe that a sufficient number of people have realize that conservatives believe in lies they will no longer buy. You ought to join them.

What would happen if you suddenly realized that you don't know anything. Belief is a self imposed prison.

Well, you are certainly entitled to your opinion, minus the personal insults. One person's "bullshit" is another person's reality, and the truth may lie at either extreme, or more likely, somewhere in between, if you want to get philosophical. Although to be honest, I dont know what "bullshit" you think I am espousing. I certainly dont think facing the fact that Trump may still win is "bullshit".

 

[Moonbeam]

Well, you are certainly entitled to your opinion, minus the personal insults. One person's "bullshit" is another person's reality, and the truth may lie at either extreme, or more likely, somewhere in between, if you want to get philosophical. Although to be honest, I dont know what "bullshit" you think I am espousing. I certainly dont think facing the fact that Trump may still win is "bullshit".

I objected to this and why it seems that way to you.: "I didn't particularly like the economic program she set out today. It has some good points, but overall it seems more like promoting inflation (and increasing taxes to pay for the directed benefits) rather than decreasing it." No insult was implied, just the opposite in my opinion. First of all truth in not something that can be put in words. It is what is in a conscious state of awareness. In a conscious state of awareness, awareness in the moment, being awake, alive in the present, thought ceases to exist. There is only the now, nothing to know, nothing to become, free of past conditioning. All of the things that people think they know, all of their opinions, all of their theories of this and that just do not exist. You are talking to me within that self imposed prison you would not be in if you knew you know nothing.

The realization that we live in a dream created by thought and imagination tainted and plagued by memories of the past totally shifts one's perspective. When you realize you know nothing, that you were living in a dream, you know that when someone tells you something that is there opinion, it is just them dreaming. Why do you subject yourself to the idea that your economic beliefs are worth the time of day. They are programmed bias. You don't need them and by imputing value to them you create attachment. Don't do it. I don't know anything about economics in a way that would make me value my inculcated beliefs. I have no reason to attach ego meaning to them. White gray clouds float by in a beautiful blue sky. Look close and you could maybe leave time behind.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

I think if all votes are counted free and fairly, Harris/Walz will destroy Trump in November.

We just have to prep for the inevitable Democracy overthrowing efforts by the MAGA and @Greenman party.

If Harris wins it'll be by a narrow margin the same way it was for Biden because of the insane advantage the shitbag electoral college affords the GOP.