Dispite war being the single determining factor for independents, who really decide elections in the first place, Bush has failed on on these and republicans will pay as a party for his mistakes:
The Economy - Median incomes are way down since bush took office.. simple supply and demand. Increase labor supply by allowing unlimited illegal labor to enter our country and even welcoming them with promises of amnesty Bush has driven the wages down.
Healthcare - more exspensive than ever which less can afford with those lower incomes.
The War On Terror - NK has nukes now, Iran soon, Iraq will be a fundi islamic emirate when it's all over. Well done! Oh and AQ and osama has sancutary in Waristan Pakistan.
Border Security - Borders are wide open, Bush loves cheap labor!
National Security - We allowed more Suadis, and most of 911 attackers were Suadi in USA than every before last year actually increasing quotas. Bush clings to his "religion of peace" line to this day. Good Dhimmi he is. National treausry is drained so is our military.
Education - wrost SAT scores in 25 years last year.
In sum I don't see how anyone could say Bush is a conservative and that's whats killing him too. That whole family is not conservative. Consevatives were tradionally islolationists, bush even talked isolation and no nation building in his advertising campain for election 2000. Consevatives don't have open hostility for the consititution but preserve it. Conservatives don't rack up 500Billion deficits or leave borders wide open.