[Poll] When will the U.S. economy stop losing jobs each month?

[WhipperSnapper]

I thought this might make for an interesting poll question. Given tha the economy has supposedly turned the corner to a jobless "recovery", when will the U.S. economy stop losing jobs each month and begin gaining jobs? I've created two flavors of the poll. The first poll ignores population growth. The second poll takes into account the nation's need of about 150,000 net new jobs per month to account for population growth. (So, a gain of 100,000 jobs in a given month is still a loss of 50,000 jobs relative to what the nation needs to maintain an even percentage of working-aged population employed month after month.)

You would tend to think that at some point enough people will have been laid off that the nation's economy could not possibly lose any more jobs. However, it could take a long time until we reach that point and if things really go downhill, unemployment, at least as we tend to think of it (where someone earning $1/hour would be properly regarded as unemployed) could continue to increase dramatically.

Have at it.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

I had to think about it for a little while, but I decided to go with, "The situation will get so bad that the government will stop reporting it."

I don't think that our nation's economy will transform into a third world economy overnight but that it will take a couple years if not two decades. In the meantime, Americans are so heavily indoctrinated with their optimistic belief in meritocracy that instead of blaming the government and powerful corporate and wealthy interests for their predicament, they'll blame themselves and become so acclimated to living in poverty that they'll lose any desire to revolt. Also, as our nation's immigrant population continues to increase, a larger and larger fraction of the populace will already be acclimated and comfortable with living in third world poverty; for them this it is just business as usual.

I say all of this because people will not necessarily revolt when a huge wealth gap exists between the rich and the poor without there being a large middle class. South American countries and Mexico seem like good examples of this.

So, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the government stopped publicly issuing monthly jobs reports at some point in the future. The government and the wealthy wouldn't want the sheeple to possibly think that the nation's economy should be gaining jobs nor that a loss of jobs is unusual or newsworthy.

 

[peonyu]

We really need a better immigration system, its part of the problem. Our system barely scales with supply and demand, its for the most part a set in stone number for how many are legally allowed in a year [and when changed its usually increased the numbers and not down]...It doesnt take into account that if theres half a million people already unemployed and jobless here, that adding two million more people from immigration just makes it worse. Its all fine and dandy that our country is based on immigration but its unrealistic to not monitor it and quota it, namely based on jobs and population size itself...Do we really want to hit 600 million people by 2100? Our wildlife will get cemented if we do. etc etc. Add in illegal immigration and the scenario worsens.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: peonyuDo we really want to hit 600 million people by 2100? Our wildlife will get cemented if we do. etc etc. Add in illegal immigration and the scenario worsens.

If the economy continues to head south, it's possible that most if not almost all of the wildlife in the U.S. will have been hunted to extinction. Even in an overpopulated third country or a twenty year depression, people gotta eat.

 

[BoomerD]

Originally posted by: peonyu
We really need a better immigration system, its part of the problem. Our system barely scales with supply and demand, its for the most part a set in stone number for how many are legally allowed in a year [and when changed its usually increased the numbers and not down]...It doesnt take into account that if theres half a million people already unemployed and jobless here, that adding two million more people from immigration just makes it worse. Its all fine and dandy that our country is based on immigration but its unrealistic to not monitor it and quota it, namely based on jobs and population size itself...Do we really want to hit 600 million people by 2100? Our wildlife will get cemented if we do. etc etc. Add in illegal immigration and the scenario worsens.

This. Until the economy turns around and starts posting positive numbers, we need to shut down ALL immigration, legal and illegal.

We don't need more immigrants, we need fewer. Too many people competing for the few jobs we have available right now. STOP the H1B type of programs, stop importing workers, stop ALL immigration.

There certainly should be enough unemployed people in about all categories to fill any job that comes available.

Hell, I wouldn't object if the US decided to start sending all non-citizens back to the country of their origin, regardless of how long they've been here.
(IMO, if they've been here more than 5 years and haven't at least started the citizenship process, they need to go...)

 

[PingSpike]

I thought we just had to wait until their unemployment benefits run out and after that we don't have to count them anymore.

 

[StageLeft]

4 months, 2 years, the second is a wag the first maybe less so and based on the slow down in how quickly the rate is going up. Overall still a grim outlook for a long time to come, imo.

 

[Trianon]

Originally posted by: BoomerD
Hell, I wouldn't object if the US decided to start sending all non-citizens back to the country of their origin, regardless of how long they've been here.
(IMO, if they've been here more than 5 years and haven't at least started the citizenship process, they need to go...)

That sounds a bit extreme, don't you think? Some countries do not allow dual citizenship, for one US doesn't recognize dual citizens, so people may be well rooted in the US, contributing for decades and still not have US passport. Plus as far as I can see some citizens are just not interested in doing manual or mental work done by immigrants, no matter what employment situation is out there.

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper
When will the U.S. economy stop losing jobs each month?

Well, I suppose it's possible that we could have one 'good' month where we don't lose any jobs.

But so far (as of Aug 09) we've lost 6.9 million jobs since 12/07 Link And have a total of about 15 million unemployed people (I'd guess that is the E6 number - "E6" is one of the definitions of unemployment).

For me, the real question is when will get all these people back to work? I believe it's going to be a long time, and I don't think we'll see significant employment gains for at least 18 months and likely longer.

Lately I've grown far more pessimistic. The health Care bil looks to only increase costs, not contain or reduce them. IMO, this bodes poorly for job gains as it increases the costs-per-employee.

Thens there the Cap-N-Trade, which will also increase employer costs leaving less money for new hires.

We're also likely to see a bunch of new taxes in businesses, all these stimulus package, bailouts and other government 'give-aways' etc must be paid for - see above.

I suspect most businesses will look to increase worker productivity, and not increase new hires, to absorb these costs.

Fern

 

[Kirby]

Originally posted by: BoomerD
Hell, I wouldn't object if the US decided to start sending all non-citizens back to the country of their origin, regardless of how long they've been here.
(IMO, if they've been here more than 5 years and haven't at least started the citizenship process, they need to go...)

What about all the students over here? They do nothing but learn and stimulate our economy. They can't work, so they aren't taking anyone's job.

 

[Genx87]

I believe if you look at previous recessions unemployment lags about 18-24 months from when the economy bottoms out and starts recovering. Provided we are at the bottom and start to recover. Tack on 18-24 months from that point.

 

[QuantumPion]

How long is it until the mid-term elections? That's how long I would guess it will take the media to report that we are creating new jobs again anyways...

 

[gevorg]

Once we stop exploiting slave-like labor in China, Mexico, etc.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

I'm surprised by how many people answered "The situation will get so bad that the government will stop reporting it," for both questions and "Never" for the part about whether the U.S. economy would ever have enough net new jobs to break even with population growth. I didn't think the percentages would be that high.

 

[Ozoned]

By some estimates, there are 10,000,000 people living in the united states illegally. Get rid of them, problem solved.

 

[First]

Originally posted by: Ozoned
By some estimates, there are 10,000,000 people living in the united states illegally. Get rid of them, problem solved.

What's sad is that you actually believe this.

 

[boomerang]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper
I had to think about it for a little while, but I decided to go with, "The situation will get so bad that the government will stop reporting it."

I don't think that our nation's economy will transform into a third world economy overnight but that it will take a couple years if not two decades. In the meantime, Americans are so heavily indoctrinated with their optimistic belief in meritocracy that instead of blaming the government and powerful corporate and wealthy interests for their predicament, they'll blame themselves and become so acclimated to living in poverty that they'll lose any desire to revolt. Also, as our nation's immigrant population continues to increase, a larger and larger fraction of the populace will already be acclimated and comfortable with living in third world poverty; for them this it is just business as usual.

I say all of this because people will not necessarily revolt when a huge wealth gap exists between the rich and the poor without there being a large middle class. South American countries and Mexico seem like good examples of this.

So, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the government stopped publicly issuing monthly jobs reports at some point in the future. The government and the wealthy wouldn't want the sheeple to possibly think that the nation's economy should be gaining jobs nor that a loss of jobs is unusual or newsworthy.

The administration is pushing for the media to be under the full control of the state. They've got nearly every cable news channel and we all know who they're putting the pressure on now. Mark Lloyd (our FCC diversity czar) has more or less publicly declared his plan to silence talk radio. Excuse me, talk radio that doesn't agree with the administration. He'll be following some guidelines most recently laid out by his pal and mentor Hugo Chavez. Just today the administration has made a suggestion that the newspapers will need a bail out. Just as they control a number of corporations in America, they will control the print media also. This shouldn't be too difficult as much of the print media is right now printing what they're told to. They're in a hell of a struggle to survive and will surely roll over for this administration. Net neutrality which will be voted on tomorrow is thought by some to be the opening salvo on a bid to control the internet. Once they control the media, they can of course put out whatever type of doublespeak they desire. So yes, they will cease to report and will instead tell of us of the continuing increase in employment. It will be false, but many will eat it up as long as the cheese keeps coming.

The rest of the world will determine when our economy fails. There is no end to the borrowing this administration is willing to take on. Eventually the well will run dry. With no borrowed money available to pay the interest on borrowed money, and no borrowed money available to buy our own debt (yes we've done that) the results are predictable. Part of the plan? Could be.

Heavy pressure will be put on Democratic members of Congress to tow the line and move and think in unison. Those that won't will find out what happens when Chicago style political 'justice' moves to DC. It will be swift and thorough.

Obama told the world that he would fundamentally transform the United States of America

Well it's happening. So far, I don't like it so much.



I found an interesting opinion piece here.

It's not really related to this discussion and is from March of this year. I found much of it to be spot on. The author gives a glimmer of hope at the end, but it's dated at this point. It's even longer than my post, so I expect few here will have the attention span to read it. Be aware that it's not complimentary and may raise the blood pressure of the most ardent followers. But hey, health care is coming right? In 2015.

 

[gar3555]

This thread made me think of this. Obviously total change is shown through 2010, but how can we make up the deficit in jobs that currently exists and back in the positive?

 

[vhx]

Originally posted by: gevorg
Once we stop exploiting slave-like labor in China, Mexico, etc.

So... never?

 

[ericlp]

Originally posted by: PingSpike
I thought we just had to wait until their unemployment benefits run out and after that we don't have to count them anymore.

Yup! Exactly!

That's the problem, it's all rigged and tables are tilted anyway.


So WHY even bother? The Polls, the Reporting is all useless.

Let's not forget that 99.9% of the folks don't have health care. It's depressing and the really sad part is anyone of us could be axed and join the million of others. I don't see an end to any of it.

I find it Ironic that they shipped most of the steel from the wold trade center over sea's to make cars to compete with the US auto makers.

I think we need to START firing up our steel plants and bring back the industry. We need to start making clothing in AMERICA like Lee, Levis, etc...etc....etc... We need to bring back names like Stanley, RubberMaid, RCA, Zenith, etc...etc... And start making things in America again.

But now that they are all overseas I really don't see how people are going to finance any type of business loan. Banks won't loan money out. I really think we are all screwed.

 

[Xellos2099]

Originally posted by: First

Originally posted by: Ozoned
By some estimates, there are 10,000,000 people living in the united states illegally. Get rid of them, problem solved.

What's sad is that you actually believe this.

What is so wrong about the comment? We get rid of the illegal, they no longer strain our already overflowing public school system. It is a fact. We get rid of them and they can no longer drive recklessly and go to emergency room for free. It is a fact. People only see the good side( if there is any) of it but never consider the bad side of things.

 

[BoomerD]

Originally posted by: Xellos2099

Originally posted by: First

Originally posted by: Ozoned
By some estimates, there are 10,000,000 people living in the united states illegally. Get rid of them, problem solved.

What's sad is that you actually believe this.

What is so wrong about the comment? We get rid of the illegal, they no longer strain our already overflowing public school system. It is a fact. We get rid of them and they can no longer drive recklessly and go to emergency room for free. It is a fact. People only see the good side( if there is any) of it but never consider the bad side of things.

I'm very "anti-illegal immigration," and while I think your idea has merit, it won't solve the problems...it should make a huge dent in many that you listed, but unfortunately, I think the damage is too deep to be solved so easily.

 

[Moonbeam]

We will stop loosing jobs when everybody is unemployed or never because some jobs are always lost. The question really is, when will we create more jobs than we lose, no?

 

[StageLeft]

I think we need to START firing up our steel plants and bring back the industry. We need to start making clothing in AMERICA like Lee, Levis, etc...etc....etc... We need to bring back names like Stanley, RubberMaid, RCA, Zenith, etc...etc... And start making things in America again.

Yes, but HOW?! Everyone says the US needs to manufacture more, but HOW IS IT GOING TO DO IT? Unless everything else is tariffed US manufacturers cannot compete, which is why they are moving offshore to begin with.

I have been completely unable to find what other western nations have as a percentage of their gdp coming from consumer spending like in the US where it's 67% or something like that. Does anybody have any idea what the numbers are in Germany, Japan, etc.?

 

[boomerang]

Job creation is secondary to this administration. Yes, they say otherwise and some lip service is devoted to their accomplishments each week. I don't know whether they believe their own lies or think that we do but it's quite clear that there is no job growth and won't be for many, many years to come.

The path to job growth in financial times such as these has been laid out before. Unfortunately for us, those methods are counter to the ideals of the party. They have full control and the social agenda is foremost on their agenda. Why worry about jobs when we'll have all these safety nets we're creating? Paid for by the evil rich too - how great is that?

For those of you in school, when you graduate with high debt and no job, with a requirement to pay into a health care system that statistically you won't need for decades, when you're paying higher utility costs to line the pockets of the rich, think hard about who you want to represent you in Washington. Your future will depend on it.

I imagine right now you're still in the romantic phase of your relationship with this administration. I'm thinking that will change.