Originally posted by: ElFenix
Originally posted by: joshsquall
Originally posted by: oboeguy
Never, unless somebody finds vast amounts of easy to pump stuff really soon.
Is that even the issue? Are we actually having oil supply issues? Or is it an artificial shortage, caused by OPEC being lame and Americans freaking the hell out and buying 5 times as much as they need and storing it?
a) OPEC is pumping as much as they can. OPEC does not want the price of crude at $60 a barrel because it will encourage other sources to come online and compete with OPEC. OPEC is happy with a $40 ceiling and would keep a barrel of oil right there if they could. in other words, at $60 a barrel you'll see supplies of energy competing with OPEC increasing, and OPEC itself increasing production once they get more wells online. more supply tends to lower prices.
b) the demand for gasoline and other oil-derivatives is long run elastic. if the price of gasoline stays high, people will change their behavior and substitute to other things. rather than drive a big SUV they'll drive a smaller hybrid. rather than live way out in the boonies they'll shorten their commute. they might even start taking some form of mass transit. the chinese will switch from the easy and fast to set-up oil fueled generators to something else, like water and nuclear power. in other words, demand will decrease. decreasing demand tends to lower prices.