POLL: Stock Market prediction for Dec 31, 2010

[boomerang]

Commercial loans aren't nearly as big of a deal as residential, the price decline is already built in for both. The loans will hit for commercial next year but I think you're already seeing movement in the space, lots of local/regional banks being gobbled up by better capitalized banks.

I don't see consumer confidence getting much worse than it is now. Everybody knows the extent of the problems.

I say 10-11K.

I hope you're right. I'm a pessimist at heart. I always expect the worse case scenario. The up side of it is that I'm never dissapointed! Things usually turn out better than I thought!

 

[nergee]

11650

 

[StageLeft]

Is that with or without the government creating artificial "stimulus" via record-breaking deficit spending?

Either way, it's an all-encompassing prediction. You have to navigate the uncertain waters of the market and government

 

[Ozoned]

2083

World war coupled with gas at $12 should put a damper on market but I'll be fishing.

Obama would have to burn through 8 trillion in new government spending by the end of the year.
And Iran would have to take out the "new project" in Dahbi for gas to get to $12.

One is unlikely, the other is possible. Enjoy the fishing.

Heh Heh.



11,000-11,500

 

[brxndxn]

I'm gonna guess they keep printing money..

14,500

 

[cliftonite]

Probably around 10k to 10,500.

 

[glugglug]

6499. Another wave of ARM resets is coming. The peak of this depression won't be reached in 2010, but in 2011. (In 2011 we'll see the DOW below 4000). Oh, and as others have mentioned, hyperinflation will be a mitigating factor. That $6499 on Dec. 31 is about $4000 in today's dollars.

 

[dullard]

6499. Another wave of ARM resets is coming. The peak of this depression won't be reached in 2010, but in 2011. (In 2011 we'll see the DOW below 4000). Oh, and as others have mentioned, hyperinflation will be a mitigating factor. That $6499 on Dec. 31 is about $4000 in today's dollars.

Lets be more specific. You are claiming there will be hyperinflation by Dec 31. Is that referring to Dec 31 of 2010?

 

[GuitarDaddy]

10970

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

15001+

The 'stimulus' package will finally kick in and there will be much joy and dancing in the streets.

 

[Special K]

edit: n/m

 

[glugglug]

Lets be more specific. You are claiming there will be hyperinflation by Dec 31. Is that referring to Dec 31 of 2010?

We have been in a state of hyperinflation for awhile now, contrary to the official numbers. The PC I am currently using I built last May for around $1700, not including monitors. I've been looking at newegg a lot waiting for the price on some other parts I want to get to go down, and if I were to build the same system as last year again today it would cost closer to $2100. The price trend for computer parts has never been up like that - they are supposed to depreciate pretty rapidly. But instead our hyperinflation is actually out-pacing the depreciation of your PC! I am saying this hyperinflation is going to continue, and in fact accelerate a bit.

 

[glugglug]

Obama would have to burn through 8 trillion in new government spending by the end of the year.
And Iran would have to take out the "new project" in Dahbi for gas to get to $12.

One is unlikely, the other is possible

Which is which? To me they both seem pretty likely. What if the "new project" doesn't happen, but Obama burns through $13 trillion?

 

[her209]

Bump for 12/31/2010

 

[dullard]

11,500 is my guess barring some crazy game changer like half the banks in the U.S. collapsing again (which won't happen this year so it's irrelevant), but hopefully unemployment gets to 9% or even below that number by then. 12,000 is not out of question, though I'll stick with 11,500 for now.

Also, it's interesting to see that none of the posers who predicted market and dollar collapse along with gold resurgence never really post in these sorts of threads much.

This is going to be hilarious to bump.

Well, unless something big changes in the next few hours, you win. Very well done, Sir.

I personally didn't predict well for Dec 31 with a 9900 prediction, although it did hit my prediction several times throughout the year.

But those 6000 posts are laughable. Where is the hyperinflation? Where is the big disaster?

 

[dullard]

2083

World war coupled with gas at $12 should put a damper on market but I'll be fishing.

Zebo, as usual, is about as far from the truth as possible.

 

[soccerballtux]

Zebo, as usual, is about as far from the truth as possible.

Well, unless something big changes in the next few hours, you win. Very well done, Sir.

I personally didn't predict well for Dec 31 with a 9900 prediction, although it did hit my prediction several times throughout the year.

But those 6000 posts are laughable. Where is the hyperinflation? Where is the big disaster?

How does hyperinflation go with a 6000 DJI?

 

[manimal]

All things considered the stock market is where it should be considering the vast devaluations that went on. Some things are sill undervalued so decent growth could happen in the first two quarters after some profit taking in january.

 

[PeshakJang]

How does hyperinflation go with a 6000 DJI?

High inflation discounts future cash flows, so investors move from equities to more secure investments, namely inflation adjusted treasury bonds. Nobody is going to invest in a business with annual growth of 5% if inflation is 10%.

 

[brencat]

11650

Actually, if the Dow closes above 11575, Nergee here wins...

First vs Nergee

Place your bets

 

[Infohawk]

LOL at all the sky-is-falling types...

 

[Darwin333]

High inflation discounts future cash flows, so investors move from equities to more secure investments, namely inflation adjusted treasury bonds. Nobody is going to invest in a business with annual growth of 5% if inflation is 10%.

in·fla·tion
   /ɪnˈfleɪʃən/ Show Spelled[in-fley-shuhn] Show IPA
–noun
1.
Economics . a persistent, substantial rise in the general level of prices related to an increase in the volume of money and resulting in the loss of value of currency ( opposed to deflation).


Prices go up during inflation so why would stock prices be exempt?

 

[First]

There's still some after hours trading that hasn't gotten in but right now I'm losing by a couple points. SOB nergee.

 

[drebo]

Yay for inflationary fiscal policy?

Just because the number is higher than it was last year doesn't mean the VALUE is higher.

 

[Munky]

The stock market looked great December 2000 too...