POLL: Stock Market prediction for Dec 31, 2010

[StageLeft]

Predictions followed by their vindication or inaccurate hilarity are the meat and potatoes of P&N, at least to me, so let's do this.

Today the market is at 10,600. What do you think it will be on Dec 31, 2010?

If you post your best guess in the thread, I'll bump the thread on the 31st and the person with the closest thread will be congratulated as thread winner and earn a coveted (by me) spot in my signature proclaiming their prescience! All entries must be made by midnight EST on 3/31/2010 for consideration in the drawing. The poll also will close on the 30th or 31st, but poll results are not public.

I think the market will close at 10,500 on Dec 31, 2010.

 

[Tristicus]

9,031

:awe:

 

[dullard]

9900

 

[PottedMeat]

i voted <6000 for lulz.

there should only be 2 options, <=9000 and >9000 :awe:

 

[kage69]

Not quite 12k is my guesstimation.

 

[Acanthus]

My AIG stock is doing well

That is all i care about at the moment.

My prediction is between 11k and 12k.

 

[Schadenfroh]

11k

 

[boomerang]

Well the last one of these (which was way back) I said 7500 which I later amended to 6500. The average of the two was about right. IIRC the low was right in the range of 7000.

The bursting of the commercial real estate bubble is going to precipitate the next big fall. Consumer confidence, unemployment and the mountain of debt we've got are going to bring the market down. This great depression is going to make the first one look tame. The people are not going to roll over and take this one like our grandparents and great grandparents did. Our only hope for it to be better is if the powers that be do not follow the FDR playbook and extend and worsen it. Seeing as how they worship the man, I don't see that happening.

I chose <6000 this time.

Who can tell me when to get out?

Edit: A bit of a correction. The query I was thinking of and referenced was actually something along the lines of, how low will the market go.

 

[StageLeft]

Well the last one of these (which was way back) I said 7500 which I later amended to 6500. The average of the two was about right. IIRC the low was right in the range of 7000.

The bursting of the commercial real estate bubble is going to precipitate the next big fall. Consumer confidence, unemployment and the mountain of debt we've got are going bring the market down. This great depression is going to make the first one look tame. The people are not going to roll over and take this one like our grandparents and great grandparents did. Our only hope for it to be better is if the powers that be do not follow the FDR playbook and extend and worsen it. Seeing as how they worship the man, I don't see that happening.

I chose <6000 this time.

Who can tell me when to get out?

Of the market? Now if you think you're right!

I said 10,500 because "the market" in its omniscience knows more than me but I think it has a great potential to go down so I basically picked a value below today's. The system still has a ton of bad debt everywhere and fed and state governments are in a terrible way so a big contraction seems very plausible.

 

[boomerang]

Of the market? Now if you think you're right!

I said 10,500 because "the market" in its omniscience knows more than me but I think it has a great potential to go down so I basically picked a value below today's. The system still has a ton of bad debt everywhere and fed and state governments are in a terrible way so a big contraction seems very plausible.

I was really being facetious. I'm already out. I'm retired and have the majority of our money in "safe" investments. But nothing is going to be safe in this next downturn.

I mentioned in another thread that I can't help but wonder if a lot of the people in Congress that chose not to run again did so because of the coming storm. Anyone in DC wearing a suit is going to be targeted. You can take that literally. Greece is not the only place in the world that can have riots. There's so much of an entitlement mentality in this country that the potential is very great for violence IMO.

We may see that "fundamental transformation of the United States of America" we heard about before the year is over.

 

[Squisher]

I think those of us from Michigan see a slightly skewed version of the economy. The auto companies are doing alright and will do better, however all these workers that were jettisoned over the last 5 years to make them profitable are going to keep dragging down the rust belt especially when benefits start running out. Hopefully the rest of the country won't see as much latent drag down from the financial crisis.

Still, I'm going to say 11K. Deficits won't really start mattering for a few years yet.

 

[brencat]

8800 ish +/- 200 pts

 

[TheDoc9]

The market will be kept up by devalued currency.

11,200

 

[ultimatebob]

My guess is 10,023. Why? High unemployment, the current economic recession continuing longer than expected, and Obama's inability to pass any meaningful legislation to resolve these issues once the Republicans take over control of the senate in the mid-term elections. It will get a nice bump in November because of the election results, however. Otherwise, it would be in a mid 9000 range.

 

[First]

11,500 is my guess barring some crazy game changer like half the banks in the U.S. collapsing again (which won't happen this year so it's irrelevant), but hopefully unemployment gets to 9&#37; or even below that number by then. 12,000 is not out of question, though I'll stick with 11,500 for now.

Also, it's interesting to see that none of the posers who predicted market and dollar collapse along with gold resurgence never really post in these sorts of threads much.

Well the last one of these (which was way back) I said 7500 which I later amended to 6500. The average of the two was about right. IIRC the low was right in the range of 7000.

The bursting of the commercial real estate bubble is going to precipitate the next big fall. Consumer confidence, unemployment and the mountain of debt we've got are going to bring the market down. This great depression is going to make the first one look tame. The people are not going to roll over and take this one like our grandparents and great grandparents did. Our only hope for it to be better is if the powers that be do not follow the FDR playbook and extend and worsen it. Seeing as how they worship the man, I don't see that happening.

I chose <6000 this time.

Who can tell me when to get out?

Edit: A bit of a correction. The query I was thinking of and referenced was actually something along the lines of, how low will the market go.

This is going to be hilarious to bump.

 

[spidey07]

If healthcare passes then under 8000. If not then 11,000.

 

[JTsyo]

11325

 

[Slew Foot]

11000, Obama will throw my kids under the bus to make the economy look like roses for the election.

 

[yllus]

About the same is what I'm thinking, so 10001-11000.

There's an "over 9000!" joke to be made here that was sadly not done.

 

[LegendKiller]

Well the last one of these (which was way back) I said 7500 which I later amended to 6500. The average of the two was about right. IIRC the low was right in the range of 7000.

The bursting of the commercial real estate bubble is going to precipitate the next big fall. Consumer confidence, unemployment and the mountain of debt we've got are going to bring the market down. This great depression is going to make the first one look tame. The people are not going to roll over and take this one like our grandparents and great grandparents did. Our only hope for it to be better is if the powers that be do not follow the FDR playbook and extend and worsen it. Seeing as how they worship the man, I don't see that happening.

I chose <6000 this time.

Who can tell me when to get out?

Edit: A bit of a correction. The query I was thinking of and referenced was actually something along the lines of, how low will the market go.

Commercial loans aren't nearly as big of a deal as residential, the price decline is already built in for both. The loans will hit for commercial next year but I think you're already seeing movement in the space, lots of local/regional banks being gobbled up by better capitalized banks.

I don't see consumer confidence getting much worse than it is now. Everybody knows the extent of the problems.

I say 10-11K.

 

[werepossum]

10,768.

(Think how awesome I'll look if I'm right.)

 

[Bitek]

11300, with lots of volatility this year. Won't be easy money like last year.
(haha to the chicken littles who bailed on the market and missed the greatest recovery in history.)

Job growth has got to getting moving, if even modestly. If that doesn't happen, things will be uglier. Hoping for a slow slog upward.

 

[Munky]

Is that with or without the government creating artificial "stimulus" via record-breaking deficit spending?

 

[Zebo]

2083

World war coupled with gas at $12 should put a damper on market but I'll be fishing.

 

[ericlp]

for some reason I think this year it will notch up a bit. 12,345 is my answer.