Poll: Curfew as tactic to control covid-19

[Muse]

Went into effect in most counties in CA last night at 10PM. All "purple" counties. Red ones, on watch, e.g. San Francisco and Marin Counties. 10PM - 5PM people are forbidden to be out and about seeking, e.g. entertainment... bars, restaurants, parties (obviously). Essential activities OK, e.g. grocery shopping, getting medications, etc. OK. Enforcement appears to be non-existent, but on the news they said that authorities aware of parties are going to intervene.

So, I saw interviews on the news. People have various reactions. A lot of them say it is stupid, the virus is 24/7, doesn't care, that kind of thing.

Fact is, though, and I saw this said, people late at night tend to stop caring as much about the rules. So, in that aspect a curfew makes total sense. Also, just doing this puts people on alert that we're trying extra hard right now, that it's necessary to be alert to the fact that we have to be more vigilant in trying to curb the virus' spread. Fact is, TG is going to have spreader events, super spreader events in some cases. Positivity rates are going to soar and hospitalizations will spike from the current alarming and in some cases borderline catastrophic levels to crisis situations in many parts of the country. Throw in Xmas and New Years and January looks to be a full blown crisis and in many places disaster. We can head this off, but will we?

I think the curfew is a smart move.

 

[cytg111]

Its one last stretch, vaccine is coming, hold the line.

 

[H T C]

Here in Portugal, any county that has an average of 240+ daily cases in a 14 day period per 100K inhabitants has a curfew on weekends starting from 13H00 until 5H00 of the following day, for both Saturday and Sunday.

Currently, 191 counties have 240+ new daily cases and those counties represent over 8.4M people: Portugal has roughly 10.2M people ...

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Here in Portugal, any county that has an average of 240+ daily cases in a 14 day period per 100K inhabitants has a curfew on weekends starting from 13H00 until 5H00 of the following day, for both Saturday and Sunday.

Currently, 191 counties have 240+ new daily cases and those counties represent over 8.4M people: Portugal has roughly 10.2M people ...

So the question is... Is it making a difference?

Doesn't sound like it.

On the face of it, I get it from a "no fun allowed for you" way, but how many people are just looking to accomplish some other normal kind of task, and must now accomplish it during the daylight hours with more people around, and thus higher risk?

 

[Starbuck1975]

Went into effect in most counties in CA last night at 10PM. All "purple" counties. Red ones, on watch, e.g. San Francisco and Marin Counties. 10PM - 5PM people are forbidden to be out and about seeking, e.g. entertainment... bars, restaurants, parties (obviously). Essential activities OK, e.g. grocery shopping, getting medications, etc. OK. Enforcement appears to be non-existent, but on the news they said that authorities aware of parties are going to intervene.

So, I saw interviews on the news. People have various reactions. A lot of them say it is stupid, the virus is 24/7, doesn't care, that kind of thing.

Fact is, though, and I saw this said, people late at night tend to stop caring as much about the rules. So, in that aspect a curfew makes total sense. Also, just doing this puts people on alert that we're trying extra hard right now, that it's necessary to be alert to the fact that we have to be more vigilant in trying to curb the virus' spread. Fact is, TG is going to have spreader events, super spreader events in some cases. Positivity rates are going to soar and hospitalizations will spike from the current alarming and in some cases borderline catastrophic levels to crisis situations in many parts of the country. Throw in Xmas and New Years and January looks to be a full blown crisis and in many places disaster. We can head this off, but will we?

I think the curfew is a smart move.

Curfews are only effective if enforced. If people belligerently defy the curfew without repercussions, all you’ve accomplished is to create more super spreader events. There was a massive street party/rally/protest in Huntington Beach. Also, hard for the governor to provide leadership when he’s going to donor dinners. We can’t just hope and pray for a vaccine even if its around the corner. I read an article that a journalist recently wrote in his experience traveling to Taiwan. They take quarantining very seriously and use technology to trace people, and people who defy the rules face hefty fines.

 

[H T C]

So the question is... Is it making a difference?

Doesn't sound like it.

On the face of it, I get it from a "no fun allowed for you" way, but how many people are just looking to accomplish some other normal kind of task, and must now accomplish it during the daylight hours with more people around, and thus higher risk?

Actually, it is: while the new case numbers are VERY HIGH, they are no longer climbing like they were last week (VS the week before). The curfew was started Nov 9th.

I've been posting Portugal's numbers on TPU's "stats" topic:

- week ending Nov 1st: https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/maps-for-tracking-covid-19.264697/post-4382483
- week ending Nov 8th: https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/maps-for-tracking-covid-19.264697/post-4388001
- week ending Nov 15th: https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/maps-for-tracking-covid-19.264697/post-4393201

Today's numbers haven't been released yet so i haven't posted this week's numbers yet.

EDIT

- week ending Nov 22nd: https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/maps-for-tracking-covid-19.264697/post-4398520

 

[Muse]

So the question is... Is it making a difference?

Doesn't sound like it.

On the face of it, I get it from a "no fun allowed for you" way, but how many people are just looking to accomplish some other normal kind of task, and must now accomplish it during the daylight hours with more people around, and thus higher risk?

You just don't get it do you? You seem to be all about shooting yourself in the foot. You must be in a world of hurt, all things considered.

 

[Muse]

Curfews are only effective if enforced. If people belligerently defy the curfew without repercussions, all you’ve accomplished is to create more super spreader events. There was a massive street party/rally/protest in Huntington Beach. Also, hard for the governor to provide leadership when he’s going to donor dinners. We can’t just hope and pray for a vaccine even if its around the corner. I read an article that a journalist recently wrote in his experience traveling to Taiwan. They take quarantining very seriously and use technology to trace people, and people who defy the rules face hefty fines.

Bullshit. You are a cynic. You get what you deserve.

 

[snoopy7548]

We only need to implement these tactics because people are irresponsible, but in order for them to work, people need to be responsible. Still, it's better than nothing, I think.

 

[pmv]

I don't really understand the logic of a curfew. Surely people don't only spread the virus after a certain time in the evening?

Also a single time when everyone gets kicked out of their cafe or pub means everyone crowding into the street or possibly public transport, at once.

On the other hand, I wouldn't say I understand it well enough to definitely say I'm against it either. I just have to hope there are people with the expertise to understand what the effect is, either way.

Lately I've been going for my exercise in the form of very long walks in the middle of the night. It's easier to keep social distance that way, plus it fits my mood these days. I'd be annoyed if I were banned from doing that.

 

[Muse]

I don't really understand the logic of a curfew. Surely people don't only spread the virus after a certain time in the evening?

Also a single time when everyone gets kicked out of their cafe or pub means everyone crowding into the street or possibly public transport, at once.

On the other hand, I wouldn't say I understand it well enough to definitely say I'm against it either. I just have to hope there are people with the expertise to understand what the effect is, either way.

Lately I've been going for my exercise in the form of very long walks in the middle of the night. It's easier to keep social distance that way, plus it fits my mood these days. I'd be annoyed if I were banned from doing that.

No, surely they do spread the virus "after a certain time in the evening," and actually at a higher rate than earlier because they are:

1. In a mood to party
2. They are tired, particularly tired of the restrictions of the daytime.
3. They are wanting to forget their responsibilities, will throw off their inhibitions and good sense, in many cases drink alcohol in public, in uncontrolled situations.

There's no doubt that a curfew will have a beneficial effect in controlling the test positivity rate and consequent hospitalizations, ICU and the stuffing of our grave yards and the smoke coming out of the chimneys of our crematoriums.

Also, speaking to your habit of taking walks at night I don't believe that CA's curfew restrictions apply to this. It's exercise. People are being allowed to walk their dogs, for instance. I'm sure they wouldn't care if you walk for exercise as long as you do it responsibly.

 

[pmv]

No, surely they do spread the virus "after a certain time in the evening," and actually at a higher rate than earlier because they are:

1. In a mood to party
2. They are tired, particularly tired of the restrictions of the daytime.
3. They are wanting to forget their responsibilities, will throw off their inhibitions and good sense, in many cases drink alcohol in public, in uncontrolled situations.

There's no doubt that a curfew will have a beneficial effect in controlling the test positivity rate and consequent hospitalizations, ICU and the stuffing of our grave yards and the smoke coming out of the chimneys of our crematoriums.

Also, speaking to your habit of taking walks at night I don't believe that CA's curfew restrictions apply to this. It's exercise. People are being allowed to walk their dogs, for instance. I'm sure they wouldn't care if you walk for exercise as long as you do it responsibly.

You probably need to more precisely define what you mean by 'curfew'. To me that means "get off the streets". If you mean just enforce closing times for public (indoor) venues, then it still seems to me that creates an issue with sending everyone out onto the same streets at the same time, thus creating crowds where the virus could spread.

But I don't know what the ideal answer is, if people won't behave carefully voluntarily. I guess there are limits to what 'the authorities' can do if the public aren't taking things seriously.

 

[MtnMan]

Bars and resturants are a huge contributor to the spread of COVID. Those out drinking beyond 10 are making bad decisions, including driving drunk, not wear a mask, not social distancing. A 10 PM curfew will seriously cut into those hours where alcohol leads to stupid decisions.

 

[zzyzxroad]

Hopefully with Biden we can get a steady stream of information from experts on national television explaining how to best protect our communities. My hope is with a heavy dose of education most people start wearing masks. Probably wishful thinking though as Trump might have poisoned the brain of to many for that to happen.

 

[Commodus]

I like the idea in theory, since a lot of the problem stems from people congregating late into the night... my initial concern is that they'll replace going to the bar or restaurant with more house parties.

 

[HomerJS]

I find it odd the people who rail against mask wearing are fine with curfew's when they think dark people are looting and burning. However a pandemic that has killed 1/4 million people, most on the planet we get a "I don't have the authority to tell people what to do."

 

[dawp]

Hopefully with Biden we can get a steady stream of information from experts on national television explaining how to best protect our communities. My hope is with a heavy dose of education most people start wearing masks. Probably wishful thinking though as Trump might have poisoned the brain of to many for that to happen.

explaining what is best probably won't help much as right-winging will think that they're trying to restrict their 'freedoms'.

 

[ch33zw1z]

It comes down to your personal responsibility to your fellow man. Do I think it's smart / unsmart? Doesn't seem like much of an option. It's a governing bodies way of trying to curtail a pandemic with citizens who DGAF. Not all citizens, but enough to make a formidable negative impact on efforts of citizens who do GAF. I think it's just another band aid on the problem of human stupidity.

The people impacted by this order will just hangout at someone's house instead.

 

[Zorba]

We only need to implement these tactics because people are irresponsible, but in order for them to work, people need to be responsible. Still, it's better than nothing, I think.

There are a shit ton of people that will follow rules once told to, but not otherwise.

 

[Muse]

Bars and resturants are a huge contributor to the spread of COVID. Those out drinking beyond 10 are making bad decisions, including driving drunk, not wear a mask, not social distancing. A 10 PM curfew will seriously cut into those hours where alcohol leads to stupid decisions.

You get it! Congrats...

That's just it. Bars and restaurants in that order are at the top of the list of activities that are driving the pandemic in the US. We have some control over those. Indoor gatherings, there's not much. But the word can be put out, -- don't do it, take precautions, mask up, SD, keep it short, circulate the air, etc.

 

[Muse]

I think it's just another band aid on the problem of human stupidity.

The people impacted by this order will just hangout at someone's house instead.

Let's not over generalize. Of course, you're not gonna succeed with everybody, but get the right ideas out there, fuck with people's habits, that helps right there. "We all need a shakeup," Bob Dylan said that, he's famous for saying things worth remembering. We hear so many things NOT WORTH REMEMBERING, remember that!

 

[woolfe9998]

You get it! Congrats...

That's just it. Bars and restaurants in that order are at the top of the list of activities that are driving the pandemic in the US. We have some control over those. Indoor gatherings, there's not much. But the word can be put out, -- don't do it, take precautions, mask up, SD, keep it short, circulate the air, etc.

The bars and restaurants are closed anyway so what is the point?

 

[Muse]

The bars and restaurants are closed anyway so what is the point?

In those 28 counties, at least a lot of them, they weren't closed. They were limited capacity (and other restrictions) and were able to stay open after 10PM.

 

[1prophet]

Curfews are only effective if enforced. If people belligerently defy the curfew without repercussions, all you’ve accomplished is to create more super spreader events. There was a massive street party/rally/protest in Huntington Beach. Also, hard for the governor to provide leadership when he’s going to donor dinners. We can’t just hope and pray for a vaccine even if its around the corner. I read an article that a journalist recently wrote in his experience traveling to Taiwan. They take quarantining very seriously and use technology to trace people, and people who defy the rules face hefty fines.

They take their civic duty with a sense of selfless responsibility like Americans used to do years ago.

Don't tell me what to do, It's my body, I can eat what I want, don't have to recite the pledge of allegiance, stand up for the national anthem, dress how I want, identify as boy, girl, black, white, take drugs if I want, I have rights, policeman are pigs, etc., etc., basically we have a me first society that doesn't like to be told.

Now those same people are somehow going to magically become obedient selfless citizens that do their best to honor their civic duty in a time of need like back in the day,

Now the trumpet summons us again — not as a call to bear arms, though arms we need; not as a call to battle, though embattled we are — but a call to bear the burden of a long twilight struggle, year in and year out, "rejoicing in hope, patient in tribulation" — a struggle against the common enemies of man: tyranny, poverty, disease, and war itself.

Can we forge against these enemies a grand and global alliance, North and South, East and West, that can assure a more fruitful life for all mankind? Will you join in that historic effort?

In the long history of the world, only a few generations have been granted the role of defending freedom in its hour of maximum danger. I do not shrink from this responsibility — I welcome it. I do not believe that any of us would exchange places with any other people or any other generation. The energy, the faith, the devotion which we bring to this endeavour will light our country and all who serve it — and the glow from that fire can truly light the world.

And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country.”

John F. Kennedy

 

[ch33zw1z]

Let's not over generalize. Of course, you're not gonna succeed with everybody, but get the right ideas out there, fuck with people's habits, that helps right there. "We all need a shakeup," Bob Dylan said that, he's famous for saying things worth remembering. We hear so many things NOT WORTH REMEMBERING, remember that!

I'm not saying the gubbermint shouldn't do something, I just know my anecdotal XP learned me that those people trolling the night life are just gonna do it elsewhere. Those will be the same people complaining that the school is shutting down for a month during the next school committee meeting (zoom meeting). True story, lol