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Poll: Clinton leads Trump by double digits

E

emperus

Diamond Member
I still believe head to head Polls won't tell us a lot this early on, but the 55% of of people surveyed who said they would never vote for Trump? 😱

Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton has a 12-point lead over Donald Trump nationally, a new Bloomberg Politics poll shows.

Clinton has 49% support to Trump's 37%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 9%, according to the poll of 750 likely voters. The poll was conducted Friday through Monday and released Tuesday evening, meaning many of those polled were surveyed before the Orlando terrorist attack.
Particularly damaging for Trump: 55% of those surveyed said they would never vote for him, compared to 43% who said they'd never back Clinton.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/14/politics/poll-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump/index.html
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As this point, the GOP just has to look at the 2016 presidential race as a write-off. Backing Trump looks like a lost cause (independent of the fact it also looks like a bad idea), and enthusiastically supporting the guy anyway is likely only going to hurt the party long-term with the general population. The GOP was already sliding toward long-term minority party status, but Trump is really hastening the process.
 
michal1980 said:
is it too late to dump trump?
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I've been wondering if the Republican leaders have some procedural/technicality card up their sleeve to pull at the convention.
If they do they wouldn't reveal it until the last possible second.

Trump could always back out to avoid an embarrassing defeat too.
 
Jaepheth said:
I've been wondering if the Republican leaders have some procedural/technicality card up their sleeve to pull at the convention.
If they do they wouldn't reveal it until the last possible second.

Trump could always back out to avoid an embarrassing defeat too.
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GOP is private club. They can always change their own rules.
 
I remember a poll in 2012 where Romney had a double digit lead over Obama. Don't get too excited over a single poll.
 
buckshot24 said:
I remember a poll in 2012 where Romney had a double digit lead over Obama. Don't get too excited over a single poll.
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yup, a single poll matter not. what does matter is the overall average of all the polls and what do we see?

one week ago Clinton was up by two and now she is up by five and a half with Trump's numbers going down quickly.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Trump and the Republican party have screwed each other and ensured a Hillary victory.
 
buckshot24 said:
I remember a poll in 2012 where Romney had a double digit lead over Obama. Don't get too excited over a single poll.
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Don't remember that poll. Do remember Republicans saying all the polls were wrong and Romney would win.

But you also missed the structural part of the poll where 55% of people would not vote for Trump.
 
emperus said:
Don't remember that poll. Do remember Republicans saying all the polls were wrong and Romney would win.

But you also missed the structural part of the poll where 55% of people would not vote for Trump.
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Still, single polls don't mean that much and this one is likely an outlier. Don't get me wrong, it is quite likely that Clinton has a significant lead much as she's almost always had, but I would be surprised if it ever ends up being double digits when it comes to the vote.

I wonder where Sp33dy is these days though? He seemed very interested in the polls until recently, haha.
 
fskimospy said:
Still, single polls don't mean that much and this one is likely an outlier. Don't get me wrong, it is quite likely that Clinton has a significant lead much as she's almost always had, but I would be surprised if it ever ends up being double digits when it comes to the vote.

I wonder where Sp33dy is these days though? He seemed very interested in the polls until recently, haha.
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I don't think national polls really matter. State polling moreso. But again, the internals of the polls are interesting to me. I guess we'll see as more polls come out and we get closer to the elections.
 
emperus said:
Don't remember that poll. Do remember Republicans saying all the polls were wrong and Romney would win.

But you also missed the structural part of the poll where 55% of people would not vote for Trump.
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Internals of a poll that aren't accurate (not saying this is not accurate) aren't very important. In any case, Hillary definitely has a lead right now.

It turns out that they were wrong but in the other direction, Obama did better than he polled.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

I don't find that double digit poll I was thinking about there so I'm not sure what I was thinking about.
 
alien42 said:
yup, a single poll matter not. what does matter is the overall average of all the polls and what do we see?

one week ago Clinton was up by two and now she is up by five and a half with Trump's numbers going down quickly.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Trump and the Republican party have screwed each other and ensured a Hillary victory.
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It is interesting that in 2012 Bloomberg had Obama up 13 points around the same time.
 
emperus said:
Question. Do you see Trump winning this election?
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What does that have to do with what you quoted?

Trump definitely needs to turn this thing around or he will not win. He can't keep shooting himself in the foot and Hillary cannot keep having good weeks like she just had. Hillary still has this email thing that could explode as well. So I'll refrain from making any predictions at this time.
 
fskimospy said:
Still, single polls don't mean that much and this one is likely an outlier. Don't get me wrong, it is quite likely that Clinton has a significant lead much as she's almost always had, but I would be surprised if it ever ends up being double digits when it comes to the vote.

I wonder where Sp33dy is these days though? He seemed very interested in the polls until recently, haha.
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this +1, it's still very early and our country is incredibly fickle, however it looks like the drumpf has turned southward in a big way. maybe all that hate, lies and fear he is spreading is catching up to him. or maybe the country's waking up to the fact he's nothing more than a glorified used car salesman
tumblr_o6o9eb9BMK1uyav8ao1_1280.jpg
 
buckshot24 said:
I remember a poll in 2012 where Romney had a double digit lead over Obama. Don't get too excited over a single poll.
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While you may be correct about a double digit lead in a single poll, it wasn't near the election with a well-known pollster. Here is a list of many polls for that election, over a wide range of pollsters and dates, and none of which ever gave Romney a double digit lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...eral_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls

But, personally, I don't think we should focus on the lead in terms of percentage differences at this point in an election year. The more important statistic from the polls to consider is that no poll on that list ever had Romney at over 50% of the votes. With 3rd party candidates taking away some votes, you don't technically need 50% of the votes, but it is damn hard if at no point did you ever exceed 50% in the voters' minds.

McCain only hit 51% one time and that was well before the election, otherwise most polls had him in the low to mid 40% range. While Obama was frequently well above 50%. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Kerry only topped 50% when it was well before the election; but he was almost always in the upper 40% range. Bush was usually in the upper 40% range but had frequent enough moves into the >50% ranges. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2004/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_kerry-939.html


The same pattern is holding true here. At no point in any poll is Trump even getting close to 50%. He is hitting 47% a few times, but that is likely just a poll fluke when you have about +-4% noise. He is much closer to 40% in most polls. It is really, really hard to win with only about 40% of the voters on your side, even if Clinton is your opponent. Clinton is regularly topping 50% in the polls. Not all the time, because of 3rd candidate support, but she regularly does it.
 
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Trumpmania is waning. Once the novelty and emotions die down a bit and people truly see him for what he is then this was expected. It's Hillary's race to lose at this point.
 
Subyman said:
Trumpmania is waning. Once the novelty and emotions die down a bit and people truly see him for what he is then this was expected. It's Hillary's race to lose at this point.
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This. I just can't even see it as being all that close, unless she really screws up in a huge way. I think the whole email thing is just going to sputter along and amount to nothing.
 
dullard said:
While you may be correct about a double digit lead in a single poll, it wasn't near the election with a well-known pollster. Here is a list of many polls for that election, over a wide range of pollsters and dates, and none of which ever gave Romney a double digit lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...eral_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls

But, personally, I don't think we should focus on the lead in terms of percentage differences at this point in an election year. The more important statistic from the polls to consider is that no poll on that list ever had Romney at over 50% of the votes. With 3rd party candidates taking away some votes, you don't technically need 50% of the votes, but it is damn hard if at no point did you ever exceed 50% in the voters' minds.

McCain only hit 51% one time and that was well before the election, otherwise most polls had him in the low to mid 40% range. While Obama was frequently well above 50%. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Kerry only topped 50% when it was well before the election; but he was almost always in the upper 40% range. Bush was usually in the upper 40% range but had frequent enough moves into the >50% ranges. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2004/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_kerry-939.html


The same pattern is holding true here. At no point in any poll is Trump even getting close to 50%. He is hitting 47% a few times, but that is likely just a poll fluke when you have about +-4% noise. He is much closer to 40% in most polls. It is really, really hard to win with only about 40% of the voters on your side, even if Clinton is your opponent. Clinton is regularly topping 50% in the polls. Not all the time, because of 3rd candidate support, but she regularly does it.
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Hillary hasn't polled over 50 since the end of April.
 
I don't like how this poll includes Gary Johnson but not Jill Stein. Johnson is more likely to absorb some right-leaning voters, Stein left-leaning. People are otherwise forced to select one, there is no "none of the above." They can choose no vote or not sure, but that would be an incorrect assessment of people who know they want to vote Stein.

I expect if you took out Johnson as an option Trump's percentage would go up more than Hillary's, and if you added Stein Hillary's would go down more than Trump's, although not by as much (maybe 3-4%)
 
fskimospy said:
Still, single polls don't mean that much and this one is likely an outlier. Don't get me wrong, it is quite likely that Clinton has a significant lead much as she's almost always had, but I would be surprised if it ever ends up being double digits when it comes to the vote.

I wonder where Sp33dy is these days though? He seemed very interested in the polls until recently, haha.
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Well stated.
 
Any day now he'll get more "Presidential" and turn things around any day now.

Honestly I hate how he even says that word. You can hear the insincerity in his voice.
 
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