Thump553
Lifer
- Jun 2, 2000
- 12,837
- 2,621
- 136
Anybody over 50 has been told countless stories about the Depression from parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, neighbors, etc. Nearly every "turn out that light when you leave the room" or "finish all the food on your plate" would segue naturally into stories of the bad old days. If you want, we can pass them on, free of charge.
I've lived through a couple of nasty recessions (late 70's rust belt, S&L crisis & housing downturn for the last two years) which directly affected me. I prefer boring prosperity with mild inflation when I can bitch how much cheaper gas was in the old days.
StageLeft
No Lifer
- Sep 29, 2000
- 70,150
- 5
- 0
I don't know what one is exactly but I'll know it when I see it. I've known, as have all salient people, that the US was headed for a recession for many, many months now. I remember laughing at Bernanke in Feb of this year talking about how there probably wouldn't be one. Things are so much worse now, and they were bad then. Depression? I really could not even wager a guess. I am sure of some things, not sure of others. I was sure oil was a ridiculous bubble and it was. I am sure we'll have a recession. We will. Beyond that, I won't bother guessing at this point because it would be a total crapshoot.
Actually I will go further, I think it's going to be that the bailout turns out to be woefully too little, too late. It may very well amount to bringing a knife to a tank battle. Should things continue to go hellaciously south, it will be of less relevance, because people will be more concerned with their jobs and lost wealth. The jobs haven't really followed yet (although the numbers are bad), but they will. Unemployment is going to go up very notably within the next six months.
Actually I will go further, I think it's going to be that the bailout turns out to be woefully too little, too late. It may very well amount to bringing a knife to a tank battle. Should things continue to go hellaciously south, it will be of less relevance, because people will be more concerned with their jobs and lost wealth. The jobs haven't really followed yet (although the numbers are bad), but they will. Unemployment is going to go up very notably within the next six months.
Me, too.
WhipperSnapper
Lifer
- Oct 30, 2004
- 11,442
- 32
- 91
It may not be a depression but it sure is an economy that's not generating many jobs? What is the total job loss for this year taking into account the about 150,000 new jobs that are needed each month to keep pace with the nation's population explosion? 9 months * 150,000 = 1.35 million plus the couple hundred thousand lost jobs that the media has reported this year gets us close to a job loss of about 2 million when population growth is taken into account.
I challenge anyone to go out there right now, pick 10 at random, and ask them to define each of the following and explain how each are impacting the US and the world economy today:
1. Depression.
2. Recession.
3. Deflation.
The short answer: Give it time. No matter what we do it will not act as a solution within a week or even a month.
1. Depression.
2. Recession.
3. Deflation.
The short answer: Give it time. No matter what we do it will not act as a solution within a week or even a month.
The sun shine on me today and it's touch on my skin is just like the touch Moses felt. We walk is a near eternal garden of delights. The only depression I see is induced my me when I think my thoughts with their associations to a dead and gone past, of pain and fear that happened when I was small. But the sun, ah, that sun, it's the same.
We need to get out more.
We need to get out more.
I am not trying to suggest that it won't. The truth is I doubt I will have a good idea until after Christmas which will provide figures about people's buying habits in a different way.
My point is that what we are reading now can really change by the day and much of these stories are largely centered around confidence in the market and the general public which doesn't understand jack. "Reliable" is not a word I would use to describe much of what the media has been presenting recently. I would very much prefer them to concentrate more stories heavily around the 3 things I mentioned above. Especially the deflation part. We are seeing some of that, but most is either incomplete or saturated with other crap that is far too speculative and fuels fear. We have to pick and choose carefully right now and most of all we need to be patient.
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