Poker Question:

[AgaBoogaBoo]

Hand: 5 8
Flop: 4 6 J
Turn: Q
River: 7

My rule of thumb is that if i need 2 cards for a straight, odds are it won't work out and not worth it in the long run, so I fold. However, what if I just need 1 card? The fact that it's not on the flop or in my hand, the odds of it coming up next are a little higher, and we have 2 cards for it to show up on.

Is the overall idea to fold this? I folded before the river and regret it now because the pot went up a lot and I would have won it.

Odds are that if you're counting on one card to show up, you should fold, right?

 

[dullard]

Is the pot big or small?
Are your opponents good or bad players?
Are people betting or checking?
Are your opponents short on chips?
Do you want to give them the impression that you are conservative or aggressive?

Generally speaking, you don't want to put all your hopes on one last card on the river (about 9% chance in the case you gave). But, if you can meet other goals for little money, you may be better off staying in.

 

[DaShen]

Gutshot straights aren't very good odds. You fold if the bet is too risky for the amount of chips you have, or you gamble. Either way, that is just the way different people play. There is not one right answer to poker. The big difference between good players and weak players is the amount of chips the person on average has in front of him by the end of the night.

 

[DaShen]

Originally posted by: dullard
Is the pot big or small?
Are your opponents good or bad players?
Are people betting or checking?
Are your opponents short on chips?
Do you want to give them the impression that you are conservative or aggressive?

Generally speaking, you don't want to put all your hopes on one last card on the river (about 7% chance). But, if you can meet other goals for little money, you may be better off staying in.

BINGO! A lot of factors to consider before betting.

In general, if you know the players on the table are weak compared to you, you can push them around with bets. Or if the players suck and try to buy the pot but they are loose players, then push them all in.

**EDIT**
The outcome matter not because on average if you know how to play poker, you will usually end up winning.

 

[KnickNut3]

It's hard to give you a general rule, since it strongly depends on the size of the pot relative to the bet. If you want a rule, in general in limit poker it's probably OK to draw to an open-ended straight (with 8 cards that can help you), but generally not OK to draw to the inside straight, since the pot rarely has enough money in it to make that call profitable.

And you can't base your "I should have done" on results. It's probability.

Do you play often?

 

[AgaBoogaBoo]

Originally posted by: dullard
Is the pot big or small?
Are your opponents good or bad players?
Are people betting or checking?
Are your opponents short on chips?
Do you want to give them the impression that you are conservative or aggressive?

Generally speaking, you don't want to put all your hopes on one last card on the river (about 9% chance in the case you gave). But, if you can meet other goals for little money, you may be better off staying in.

Good points, thanks for posting them.

In my situation, I had just been transferred to a new table (tournament) and didn't want to do anything based on a gut feeling and so I simply folded.

 

[KnickNut3]

Originally posted by: DaShen

Originally posted by: dullard
Is the pot big or small?
Are your opponents good or bad players?
Are people betting or checking?
Are your opponents short on chips?
Do you want to give them the impression that you are conservative or aggressive?

Generally speaking, you don't want to put all your hopes on one last card on the river (about 7% chance). But, if you can meet other goals for little money, you may be better off staying in.

BINGO! A lot of factors to consider before betting.

In general, if you know the players on the table are weak compared to you, you can push them around with bets. Or if the players suck and try to buy the pot but they are loose players, then push them all in.

**EDIT**
The outcome matter not because on average if you know how to play poker, you will usually end up winning.

Ugh, please don't try to follow this. You'll get yourself in far more trouble.

 

[bignateyk]

An inside straight draw with no other outs? Id either check->fold or bluff it. Wouldnt be doing much calling with it.

 

[M0oG0oGaiPan]

If it's 58 sooted I'm all in pf utg.

 

[KnickNut3]

Originally posted by: M0oG0oGaiPan
If it's 58 sooted I'm all in pf utg.

Weak play. Sooted hands can only make 1 kind of flush. Offsuit hands can make 2 kinds.

58o utg pfai ldo
58s ezfold

 

[AgaBoogaBoo]

Originally posted by: KnickNut3
It's hard to give you a general rule, since it strongly depends on the size of the pot relative to the bet. If you want a rule, in general in limit poker it's probably OK to draw to an open-ended straight (with 8 cards that can help you), but generally not OK to draw to the inside straight, since the pot rarely has enough money in it to make that call profitable.

And you can't base your "I should have done" on results. It's probability.

Do you play often?

I play at least a few hours every day. I had started by depositing some money, but I think I went into that too quickly and I'm trying to approach this by winning a free roll first and trying to establish my own bank roll off of that.

And you're right, I shouldn't say that I should have done something, I just got caught up in it because I was down to about 1/4th of the average chips each person had and this would have put me well above it.

 

[TallBill]

Blah, beat to the punch. Yes, many factors involved. You should however learn the statistics of getting your flop. Having only one out, your odds were very very low.

 

[AgaBoogaBoo]

nvm

 

[AgaBoogaBoo]

Originally posted by: TallBill
Blah, beat to the punch. Yes, many factors involved. You should however learn the statistics of getting your flop. Having only one out, your odds were very very low.

Yeah, I figured the odds wouldn't work out, which is why I folded.

 

[Jeffwo]

Originally posted by: DaShen
Gutshot straights aren't very good odds. You fold if the bet is too risky for the amount of chips you have, or you gamble. Either way, that is just the way different people play. There is not one right answer to poker. The big difference between good players and weak players is the amount of chips the person on average has in front of him by the end of the night.

Right...you shouldn't 'chase' a gutshot straight.

An openended straight has much better odds of hitting!

 

[M0oG0oGaiPan]

LOL for real this time. Check this article out. Jesus was trying to turn 0 into 10K.
http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/p...ris%20Ferguson&tip=100

 

[KarmaPolice]

People ahve pretty much already covered it. Poker may seem like a simple game but there are a lot more factors that go into a decision like that then what you have listed.


BUT in general no... drawing to a inside straight draw is a bad idea unless you are getting insane odds or you think that you could outplay IE bluff the other people out of the pot on the turn or river with the help of a scare card or something.


if they are sooooooted then its an all in of course....gotta play the suited they are like 99% gauranteed to wins!

 

[Firebot]

Originally posted by: AgaBoogaBoo
Hand: 5 8
Flop: 4 6 J
Turn: Q
River: 7

My rule of thumb is that if i need 2 cards for a straight, odds are it won't work out and not worth it in the long run, so I fold. However, what if I just need 1 card? The fact that it's not on the flop or in my hand, the odds of it coming up next are a little higher, and we have 2 cards for it to show up on.

Is the overall idea to fold this? I folded before the river and regret it now because the pot went up a lot and I would have won it.

Odds are that if you're counting on one card to show up, you should fold, right?

You have 4 in 46 chances of hitting the straight on the river (all 4 7's in the deck, and 6 cards known), or just about 9% to hit your gutshot straight draw, in other words, you will have a potential winning hand 1/10 times (to keep it simple) on the river. To be able to call a bet on the turn, the pot odds have to be good enough so that a call with a 10% chance of winning gives you profitable pot odds. In other words, unless the guy is betting such a tiny amount that pot odds are in your favour in this way, you'd be foolish to call a pot bet or higher as it is an unprofitablet bet. Chances are the pot is too small to bother to call a bigger bet, and if it was already a big pot then you made several mistakes beforehand.

Of course in a tournament (stupid work delayed my post and 10 posts were added since the top), there are extra factors you need to think about, especially if you are short stacked. But in general, chasing a gutshot straight draw, unless the opposing players are litteraly giving you free cards or near-free cards, you should fold on the flop.

As an aside, I really hope you were in the blind or at least the button to play 58. Sometimes it's worthwhile to mix up your play and play hands such as 58 to be unpredictable, but that's only if you have all the odds, and basic and intermediate strategies down pat. I don't think you have that.